Tag: Sports Picks

Red Wings vs. Hurricanes prediction: NHL odds, picks, bets

The Red Wings have taken January by storm.

After suffering a horrid 3-9-1 record in December, Detroit has seemingly left the bad omens in 2023, going 5-0-1 ever since.

It’s reaped some rest benefits since Sunday’s 4-1 win over a popcorn muscled Toronto team on the second leg of a back-to-back. 

Carolina has caught a pair of losses in its last four games since sewing a five-game win streak together.

The Hurricanes are 2-2 amidst their ongoing homestand ahead of Friday’s puck drop against the Wings. 

The first meeting between these two resulted in a 2-1 Carolina victory on Dec. 14.

The Canes dominated five-on-five puck possession for the entirety of the game, but goaltending kept Detroit in the action with 37 of 39 shots on goal turned aside. 


Antti Raanta of the Hurricanes makes a save during the second period against the Kings. NHLI via Getty Images

It was much of the same script in Monday’s 4-2 loss to the Kings, but some misplays in Carolina’s own end cost it three late goals before an empty net sealed the contest.

Alex Lyon has been much to thank for Detroit’s resurgence in Ville Husso’s stead.

Lyon is holding a .927 save percentage through the six-game points streak and has elevated himself to a No. 12 overall ranked 8.3 xGSA.

The weight is all on 34-year-old Antti Raanta’s shoulders in the Canes’ crease with both Frederik Anderson and Petr Kochetkov nursing their respective injuries.

Betting on the NHL?

Despite the strong structure in front of him that’s allowing the fewest shots against in the NHL, he’s been having an underwhelming year to say the least at -11 xGSA. 

The Hurricanes play persistently aggressive hockey, but their goaltending has stopped just 88 percent of shots against.

All things considered, the Red Wings can’t keep winning with weak five-on-five play.

Raanta’s wobbles aside, I’m not sure Lyon can compensate enough for the colossal disparity in 200-foot hockey here.

The play: Hurricanes -1.5 (+130, DraftKings).

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Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M

This is Part 2 of the Post Action College Bowl Guide. 

Sometimes, it seems foolish to risk hard-earned money on bowl games. Dozens of teams show up after multiple weeks off, unrecognizable from the groups that spent the fall together. Coaches are gone. Stars have too much to lose to show up. Backups and role players are weighing offers in the transfer portal. 

So, why even bother making predictions? 

Because it beats the alternative. 

Military 

Tulane (+10.5) over Virginia Tech

By now — after watching the past few weeks, after watching the past few years of games impacted by opt-outs — you should know not to overreact to the absence of any coach or player this time of year.

Tulane will be without head coach Willie Fritz and quarterback Michael Pratt, but the Green Wave will have much of their 11-win core, which took down Caleb Williams and USC in last season’s Cotton Bowl. Backup quarterback Kai Horton has seen few snaps, but has made the most of them, leading Tulane to an overtime win at Houston last year and during a close battle against No. 11 Ole Miss this season. 

Duke’s Mayo 

North Carolina (+6.5) over West Virginia

Drake Maye is off to prepare for his selection as a top-two pick in the NFL draft, triggering overwhelming action on the Mountaineers. Yet, the line hasn’t budged. North Carolina will still put up points, with the nation’s fifth-leading rusher (Omarion Hampton) and a dual-threat quarterback — “I feel like I can do everything,” Conner Harrell said. “West Virginia doesn’t have much film, they’re going to have a tough time, not really knowing.” — going against the nation’s 79th-ranked defense. 


Kevin Coleman #3 of the Louisville Cardinals. Getty Images

Holiday 

Louisville (-7) over USC

The Trojans have allowed an average of 42.4 points over their past eight games. Best of luck keeping pace without a former Heisman-winning quarterback (Williams), as well as the team’s leading rusher (Marshawn Lloyd) and receiver (Brenden Rice). 

Betting on College Football?

Texas 

Oklahoma State (-2) over Texas A&M

Continuity counts for something. While the Cowboys — who have won five of their past seven bowl games under Mike Gundy — will have virtually their entire roster available, Jimbo Fisher’s former team will be missing double-digit players who have either opted out or entered the transfer portal, including their starting quarterback and tight end, top-two receivers, leading tackler, three cornerbacks and a pair of five-star defensive linemen from their top-10 defense. 

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First Responder Bowl odds, pick, best bet

The 7-5 Texas State Bobcats battle the 6-6 Rice Owls in the First Responder Bowl on the day after Christmas, and it’s among the easiest bowl games to handicap this Holiday season. 

Two combined players for these squads entered the transfer portal – both for Texas State – and both coaching units remain intact. 

These are two fully-formed squads, save for one major exception. 

Rice starting quarterback JT Daniels “medically” retired from college football after Week 11, thrusting backup quarterback AJ Padgett into action. 

I think the quarterback matchup will be the difference-maker in this bowl game. 

Texas State vs. Rice odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Texas State -3.5 (-110) -180 o60 (-110)
Rice +3.5 (-110) +152 u60 (-110)
(Via Caesars)

Teas State vs. Rice prediction

(5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Daniels had a pretty good year. He threw for 2,500 yards and 21 touchdowns while leading an Owls unit that finished top 20 nationally in EPA per Pass. 

He completed deep balls, making the Owls’ aerial attack explosive. Top wideout Luke McCaffery – Christian McCaffery’s younger brother – almost touched 1,000 yards on over 14 yards per reception with 12 scores. 

But that same explosive passing offense hasn’t been there with Padgett.

The second-year signal-caller has a career Pro Football Focus passing grade under 53. He’s managed five big-time throws to nine turnover-worthy plays. He’s averaging a meager 6.5 yards per attempt. 

Behind Padgett, the Owls threw for a combined 384 yards over their final three contests. 

The dropoff from Daniels to Padgett is exacerbated in this matchup because the Bobcats’ secondary is their weakest unit. 

The Bobcats couldn’t stop the aerial attack this year, ranking 96th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed, 111th in Pass Explosiveness allowed and 123rd in EPA per Pass allowed. 


Rice Owls head coach Mike Bloomgren. Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

But I don’t think Padgett can exploit the one monstrous glaring weakness. 

I don’t trust Rice head coach Mike Bloomgren to out-coach Texas State head coach GJ Kinne. Kinne transformed the Bobs in his inaugural season, while Bloomgren’s Owls failed to beat a single Bowl team this year. 

Conversely, I think Texas State’s starting quarterback, TJ Finley, can make plays against Rice. 

Rice’s pass defense is passable but not elite, as the Owls finished the regular season around 50th nationally in EPA per Pass allowed. Their pass rush isn’t great, as they finished 101st in total pressures created – that’s unfortunate when playing against Finley, who struggles mightily under pressure. 

Finely averaged 8.5 yards per attempt with 24 touchdowns on 17 big-time throws this year. The Bobcats ranked top 30 nationally in Pass Success Rate and EPA per Pass. Finley was especially good in Passing Downs, ranking 10th among qualified quarterbacks in Passing Downs Success Rate and Catchable Throw Rate. 

If Finley produces against Rice’s pass defense, it’s curtains for the Owls because their rush defense is relatively weaker, ranking 66th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and 89th in Rush PPA per Play allowed. 

Meanwhile, Texas State lead running back Ismail Mahdi created 38 double-digit-yard rushes this year on 47 missed tackles. 

Even better, he’s a threat in the return game: 

Betting on College Football?

Mahdi’s pure explosiveness can exploit a mediocre front seven. 

Overall, I’ll happily lay the points with Kinne, Finley and Madhi against Bloomgren and Padgett, mainly because Rice won’t exploit the Bobcats’ one significant weakness.

Texas State vs. Rice Pick

Texas State -3.5 (Caesars) | Play to -5

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Raiders-Chiefs, Giants-Eagles, Ravens-49ers NFL DFS PrizePicks

Happy holidays! Week 16 of the NFL season wraps up with three games on Christmas Day: 

  • Raiders vs. Chiefs, 1 p.m. ET
  • Giants vs. Eagles, 4:30 ET
  • Ravens vs. 49ers, 8:15 p.m. ET

Let’s take a look at three of my favorite projections to target on PrizePicks. 

Rashee Rice (Chiefs) more than 67.5 receiving yards 

Rice has seen his role grow tremendously as the season has progressed. Over the past four weeks, he has earned an incredible 38 targets while leading the team with a 27.5% target share. 

The rookie wideout has been Patrick Mahomes’ first read on a whopping 32.7% of his drop-backs in that timeframe. If Rice had posted that same first-read rate over the full season, he would rank 11th in the league, just behind the Lions’ Amon-Ra St. Brown and ahead of the Cowboys’ CeeDee Lamb. 

His breakout began against this same Raiders defense in Week 12 when he posted eight receptions for 107 yards and a touchdown. 

Rice has averaged 83.5 receiving yards in the four games since. He has eclipsed the 67.5 receiving yards projection in three of those four games, and the one time he came up short he was just 3.5 yards shy of the projection. 

Assuming his recent volume holds up, Rice should be able to beat this projection of 67.5 receiving yards. 

Darren Waller (Giants) more than 3.5 receptions 

The Giants tight end missed five games because of a hamstring injury earlier this season. Waller returned in Week 15 against the Saints and hauled in four receptions for 40 yards. 

He posted that production despite playing just 42% of the snaps. The Giants have clearly been cautious in bringing him back, as Waller played on at least 80% of snaps in six of seven games to begin the season. He should be in for increased playing time as he continues to move further away from the injury. 

Waller has topped 3.5 receptions in five of eight healthy games this season despite spotty quarterback play from Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor earlier in the year. Tommy DeVito has arguably played better than any other QB to suit up for the Giants this season. 


Giants tight end Darren Waller AP

The Giants wide receivers room lacks talent and Waller should have no trouble earning targets from DeVito this week. The game script should feature heavy pass volume for the Giants, as they project to be playing from behind.   

Waller should see his playing time tick up in this game and he could be featured as the top option in the passing game, allowing him to easily rack up more than 3.5 receptions.

Christian McCaffrey (49ers) more than 120.5 rushing + receiving yards 

McCaffrey leads the NFL with 1,801 scrimmage yards this season. Going into the week, he had racked up nearly 250 more scrimmage yards than his closest competitor, Tyreek Hill. 

McCaffrey has averaged more than 128 rushing + receiving yards per game this season, and he has recorded more than 120.5 yards in eight of 14 games. In the two of those games he fell short of this projection he missed by fewer than 3 yards. 

The All-Pro running back has at least 121 scrimmage yards in five of his last six games, including in each of the last four games. 


49ers running back Christian McCaffrey Getty Images

Baltimore should be able to push back against the Niners and keep this game relatively close into the fourth quarter, which would help secure a huge workload for McCaffrey. 

The Ravens defense is a difficult matchup as they rank top 10 in yards allowed on the ground and through the air, but the Niners will surely find a way to get McCaffrey in open space where he can win in any matchup. 

Expect McCaffrey to rack up more than 120.5 rushing + receiving yards in what should be a competitive game to close out Week 16.

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NFL Week 16 DFS picks on PrizePicks: Joe Flacco, Bijan Robinson

We did it again! Our Week 15 NFL plays on PrizePicks went 4-0 last week, so if you used them in the Power Play, you were able to 10x your buy-in. 

We’ll look to keep it going here in Week 16.

There are a lot of slates this Christmas weekend, but we will focus on the nine morning and afternoon games on Sunday. 

Joe Flacco (Browns) more than 244.5 passing yards

Flacco, who came through for us last week, has thrown for at least 250 yards in all three of his starts this season. After being a run-first team all season, the Browns have let Flacco air it out since he took over the quarterback duties in Cleveland. 

This should be another pass-heavy game plan for the Browns, as the Texans have been a pass-funnel matchup all season. Houston is fifth in DVOA against the run and 23rd in DVOA against the pass. 

This projection for Flacco seems too low for a quarterback in this matchup who has attempted at least 44 passes in each of his three starts.  


Bijan Robinson Getty Images

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) more than 84.5 rushing + receiving yards

Putting faith in Arthur Smith is never fun, but he’s on the coaching hot seat and we have a squeaky-wheel narrative brewing with Robinson. 

The rookie running back was heavily featured in Weeks 10-13 and the team went 3-0 during that stretch. Over the last two games, Robinson has only had a total of 23 touches. 

This is essentially a must-win game for the Falcons (and perhaps Smith), and I expect them to go right back to their star running back.

The matchup is certainly enticing, as the Colts have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards and the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs this season. 

Trey McBride (Cardinals) more than 60.5 receiving yards

It’s wild to think McBride was playing behind Zach Ertz at the start of the season.

Over the last seven games, he’s been one of the most productive tight ends in the NFL., with at least 60 receiving yards in five of those games.

Now he faces a Bears team that has allowed the third-most receptions to tight ends this season.

Kyler Murray clearly likes throwing to McBride, who has commanded a total of 29 targets over the last three games. 

Betting on the NFL?

Chase McLaughlin (Buccaneers) more than 1.5 field goals made

With kicker projections, I look for teams that are favored and are playing in games with good weather (or indoors). 

The Buccaneers are small favorites at home against the Jaguars. Both teams are better at defending the run than the pass, which should result in more plays for each offense (more clock stoppages).

The high pass volume is also good for kickers with more third-and-long situations.

McLaughlin has made at least two field goals in 10 of 14 games this season, and his setup for Sunday looks ideal for at least two more. 

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All signs point to Detroit

How many lumps?

Tee time at Augusta National.

The world’s worst driver, Tiger Woods, on playing in this year’s Masters: “I don’t know how many more I have in me.” Woods, who has taken his lumps over the years, hasn’t crashed his car in more than 26 months, showed his “fun” side by handing Justin Thomas a tampon when he, get this, outdrove him at a tournament in February and is 66-1 to win the green jacket.

Speaking of Tigers. Opening Day in Detroit.

The Cats host the Red Sox.

Boston’s Chris Sale, who has made almost as many hospital trips as Woods, will make his second start on the year.

Sale was torched for seven runs in three innings by the Orioles.

The Tiger’s Spencer Turnbull was a bit more efficient, allowing seven runs in just 2 ¹/₃ innings to the Rays.

Play $50 on the Tigers.

Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting

Rain in Cincinnati and the Cubs/Reds game was postponed.

No plays keeps us at -57 nordegrens.

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Hawkeyes will win national title

Iowa shocked the college basketball world when it halted South Carolina’s undefeated run to clinch a spot in Sunday’s national championship game.

And it’s hard to imagine betting against the Hawkeyes in the final.

Caitlin Clark was brilliant in Friday’s 77-73 semifinal win over the top-seeded Gamecocks, scoring or assisting on 75 percent of Iowa’s points to spark the team’s first win in the Final Four.

That’s nothing new for the Wooden Award winner, who ranks third in scoring (27.7 PPG) and first in assists (8.6 APG) across the entire season.

She’s upped those totals in the tournament, averaging 32.2 points and 10.4 assists en route to five Hawkeyes wins — with the first four coming by an average of 21 points.

That includes back-to-back 41-point efforts for Clark against two of the best teams in the country.

LSU deserves credit for its path to the title game, too, but Kim Mulkey’s group simply hasn’t been as dominant nor as battle-tested to this point.

The Tigers faced just two ranked opponents before the NCAA Tournament, which included a 24-point loss to the very South Carolina team that Iowa beat on Friday.

They also nearly lost to Utah in the Sweet 16 and trailed Virginia Tech by nine in the fourth quarter before rallying to set up Sunday’s showdown.

Betting on College Basketball?

LSU will have a size advantage in the final, but Iowa was the smaller team against South Carolina, too.

It didn’t matter with Clark’s sheer brilliance on display, and I’d expect a similar showing in this one.

The play: Iowa -3.5.

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UConn vs. Arkansas prediction, odds

After two rounds defined by shocking upsets, three of the four favorites in Thursday’s opening night of the Sweet 16 are vulnerable to a late scare or even an outright upset. 

Connecticut is not one of them. 

The Huskies have been one of the most dominant teams in this tournament, beating Iona and Saint Mary’s by a combined 39 points ahead of Thursday’s matchup with Arkansas.

That’s nothing new for Danny Hurley’s group, which ranks fifth in average scoring margin (+13.8) despite facing one of the toughest schedules in the country. 

That hasn’t been a deterrent for this team, especially over the last month.

Betting on March Madness 2023?

UConn vs. Arkansas pick

(7:15 p.m. ET., CBS)

UConn ranks No. 1 in T-Rank across its current 8-1 run thanks to its elite offensive rebound rate (41.6 percent) and two-way dominance inside.

It’s one of just three teams (Houston, Texas) to rank in the top 15 across the entire season in offensive efficiency (third) and defensive efficiency (14th), per KenPom. 


Danny Hurley
Getty Images

Arkansas deserves credit for outworking Kansas on the boards on Saturday, grabbing 14 offensive rebounds — tied for its third-most all year — to pull off the second-round stunner.

But the Razorbacks will be hard-pressed to exert their size advantage against the Huskies and superstar center Adama Sanogo (6-foot-9, 245 pounds), who is playing like the single-most dominant force in college basketball. 

Since 2021, the Huskies are a perfect 19-0 when Sanogo scores at least 20 points, as he’s done in each of the last two rounds.

If the Hogs can’t slow him down on Thursday, this one won’t be close. 

UConn vs. Arkansas prediction

UConn -4.5 (FanDuel)

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NHL odds, pick Monday, March 20

Somehow, someway the Calgary Flames are still in the playoff race in the Western Conference.

The Flames enter play on Monday night trailing the Winnipeg Jets by four points for the final Wild Card spot, though the Flames have a game in hand. 

Eight of Calgary’s final 12 games are against teams outside the playoff picture, so getting a win against one of their most formidable opponents left on the docket would be a massive boost for the Flames.

Flames vs. Kings prediction

(10:30 p.m. ET., ESPN+)

Betting on the NHL?

When you look at their Win-Loss record, you’d think that the Flames are one of the most inconsistent teams in the NHL.

While that is definitely true to some extent, you could also suggest the Flames are consistent in the way they achieve inconsistent results. 

For the most part, Calgary has followed a familiar script this season.


Calgary Flames Defenceman MacKenzie Weegar (52) in action during the third period of an NHL game
Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Flames tilt the ice at 5-on-5, but they aren’t clinical enough or don’t get strong enough goaltending to take advantage of the fact that they generally out-chance their opposition.

Through 70 games, the Flames rank third in the NHL in expected goal differential, second in shot attempt rate and 13th in high-danger scoring chance percentage.

A team with those kinds of numbers usually will find itself pretty comfortably in a playoff spot at the top of the stretch run, but unfortunately, the Flames are just about the most inefficient team in the NHL this season.

Calgary ranks 32nd in shooting percentage and 27th in save percentage on the year, rendering everything else the Flames do well moot.

Monday night profiles to be a pretty tough game for the Flames.

While Calgary have the ability to drive play against any opponent, the Kings are also a strong 5-on-5 team, ranking inside the top-10 in expected goals rate, high-danger chance percentage and shot attempt rate. 

And wouldn’t you know, the Kings are one of the few teams in the NHL with a lower save percentage than the Flames.


Kyle Burroughs #44 of the Vancouver Canucks dives for the puck next to Viktor Arvidsson #33 of the Los Angeles Kings
Getty Images

Given the profiles of these two teams, it makes sense that bookmakers have this contest priced close to a pick ’em, even if Los Angeles is comfortably ahead of Calgary in the standings.

But instead of backing one of these clubs to win, bettors can find some value by taking the +360 on the game to go to overtime.

The inconsistent goaltending is a bit scary for a bet like that, but it’s hard to see either one of these teams running away in this contest and it feels like there’s a decent chance this is a tightly played game where the 60-minute draw is always within reach.

Flames vs. Kings pick

Game to go to overtime (+360, FanDuel)

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Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace pick: Premier League predictions, odds

Sunday’s lone Premier League match will have massive ramifications at both ends of the table.

With a win over Crystal Palace, league-leaders Arsenal would go into the final international break of the season with an eight-point lead over Manchester City with one more match played.

Palace, meanwhile, are now firmly in the relegation battle with just three points separating them from the drop zone. 

Does Palace have a hope of pulling off one of the biggest results of the season?

Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal pick

Patrick Vieira’s Crystal Palace were one of the most impressive teams in the Premier League last season.

The Eagles punched above their weight en route to a 12th-place finish and their expected goal difference suggested they deserved even better. 

Palace’s defense was the driving force behind its success, as the Eagles finished seventh in goals conceded and fifth in expected goals allowed.

That defensive performance is what made Crystal Palace a trendy sleeper pick for the 2022-23 season.

Palace then backed up all that hype with a terrific showing on the Opening Day of the season.

Though they lost, 2-0, to Arsenal, Palace looked a tough nut to crack and probably deserved a better result on that day. Everything was looking up for the Eagles.


Wilfried Zaha of Crystal Palace
Getty Images

Unfortunately, things have gone awry since that day.

The Eagles have struggled in all phases of the game, but the defense has completely lost the plot compared to what we saw in 2021-22.

The Eagles rank 12th in non-penalty expected goals allowed, 13th in big scoring chances conceded and are the fourth-worst team in the circuit in preventing the opposition from entering their 18-yard box.

It’s a strange twist of events considering this is basically the same unit we saw last year with the same manager.

Arsenal should have no issues breaking down this Palace defense.

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The Gunners take more shots and create more box entries than any team in the Premier League and rank second in both expected goals created and big scoring chances generated.

Arsenal can likely name their score on Sunday.

That said, there are some cracks starting to show in the Arsenal defense.

After a brilliant first half of the season, the Gunners have seen their defensive numbers dip a bit since the World Cup break.

Arsenal still boasts one of the best defenses in the world, but their form has wobbled and Palace could find a way on the scoresheet.

Arsenal should do most of the heavy-lifting for this over 3.5, but Palace can contribute, too.

Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal prediction

Over 3.5 goals (+195, FanDuel)

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