Tag: bettor's guide

Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M

This is Part 2 of the Post Action College Bowl Guide. 

Sometimes, it seems foolish to risk hard-earned money on bowl games. Dozens of teams show up after multiple weeks off, unrecognizable from the groups that spent the fall together. Coaches are gone. Stars have too much to lose to show up. Backups and role players are weighing offers in the transfer portal. 

So, why even bother making predictions? 

Because it beats the alternative. 

Military 

Tulane (+10.5) over Virginia Tech

By now — after watching the past few weeks, after watching the past few years of games impacted by opt-outs — you should know not to overreact to the absence of any coach or player this time of year.

Tulane will be without head coach Willie Fritz and quarterback Michael Pratt, but the Green Wave will have much of their 11-win core, which took down Caleb Williams and USC in last season’s Cotton Bowl. Backup quarterback Kai Horton has seen few snaps, but has made the most of them, leading Tulane to an overtime win at Houston last year and during a close battle against No. 11 Ole Miss this season. 

Duke’s Mayo 

North Carolina (+6.5) over West Virginia

Drake Maye is off to prepare for his selection as a top-two pick in the NFL draft, triggering overwhelming action on the Mountaineers. Yet, the line hasn’t budged. North Carolina will still put up points, with the nation’s fifth-leading rusher (Omarion Hampton) and a dual-threat quarterback — “I feel like I can do everything,” Conner Harrell said. “West Virginia doesn’t have much film, they’re going to have a tough time, not really knowing.” — going against the nation’s 79th-ranked defense. 


Kevin Coleman #3 of the Louisville Cardinals. Getty Images

Holiday 

Louisville (-7) over USC

The Trojans have allowed an average of 42.4 points over their past eight games. Best of luck keeping pace without a former Heisman-winning quarterback (Williams), as well as the team’s leading rusher (Marshawn Lloyd) and receiver (Brenden Rice). 

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Texas 

Oklahoma State (-2) over Texas A&M

Continuity counts for something. While the Cowboys — who have won five of their past seven bowl games under Mike Gundy — will have virtually their entire roster available, Jimbo Fisher’s former team will be missing double-digit players who have either opted out or entered the transfer portal, including their starting quarterback and tight end, top-two receivers, leading tackler, three cornerbacks and a pair of five-star defensive linemen from their top-10 defense. 

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Eagles and Over is way to go

Richard Witt predicts the winner of Sunday’s Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs:

Eagles -1.5 over Chiefs, Over 50.5

We find it hard to stray too much away from the fundamentals of the Chiefs-Eagles matchup. We’re more comfortable where we stand than we were just a few days ago, but our basic perspective has not radically changed.

Do we respect Patrick Mahomes and the monstrous, versatile Kansas City offense, even against a defense as good as Philadelphia’s? For sure, but to not respect the defensive proposition in a game this significant would be folly, unless multiple significant injuries come into play in short order.

We continue to suspect the offenses will maintain a meaningful edge versus the defenses they’ll be facing. The two worthies you’d expect to garner the bulk of the MVP attention (those top-drawer quarterbacks) continue to draw numerous hearts and eyeballs. It’s a challenge to tear your attention away from Mahomes and the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts.

The four most recent Supes have trended toward more moderate Over/Under ledgers, with the last quartet featuring 43, 40, 51 and 16 points. The last two scoring explosions came when the Eagles made the most of their opportunities and took out the Patriots, 41-33, in the Super Bowl LII overtime hard-knocker.


Patrick Mahomes
Getty Images

The Chiefs are blessed with a multiplicity of talented athletes on both sides of the ball. Even more impressively, they displayed an uncanny improvement advantage during the course of the season, though much of that could be attributed to their facing lesser quarterback talent during the final third of the campaign.

We’ll also readily agree that the Chiefs have proven themselves to be effective in varying defensive sets — not the least of which is their broad effectiveness when playing many varieties of zone defense, which has posed the Eagles’ offensive talent sustained difficulties. And when you’re talking about Hurts, you’re talking about a quarterback who has been less than bulletproof when attempting to make optimal throws to his right, causing him considerable discomfort on multiple occasions.

At first glance, I was considerably optimistic and bullish about the Eagles in this affair — especially if they came to the game relatively healthy, with most of the major players in reasonably good form and optimistic about the likely outcome from their sides’ perspective.

I currently believe that I was simply too optimistic about the level of stalwartness of the Eagles’ defense during my early research, especially when you consider the degree of schedule (not all that tough, boys and girls) the Eagles found themselves coming up against during the course of the long, hard season.


Jalen Hurts
AP

Bottom-lining this, I can’t deny that the Eagles could turn out to be excruciatingly vulnerable to the size, type and style of offense that the Chiefs are likely to pitch at them for well over three hours on national television.

I can still envision the Eagles winning, but they’re going to have to get off to that snappy start that many of the optimists expected they will generate. When they have wrested early command, they have been the devil to beat, but when many things don’t quite go precisely as they’d like, they’re not quite the locks to overcome all obstacles we originally envisioned.

Last week: 1-1
Season: 124-118-3.

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Seahawks vs. Buccaneers, Raiders vs. Colts

Action Network NFL analyst C Jackson Cowart is in his first season in The Post’s Bettor’s Guide. Here are his best bets for Week 10. 

Seattle Seahawks (+3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (in Munich, Germany)

We bet on the Seahawks last week, and we’re happy to go back to the well on one of the most underrated teams in the league.

Given what we expected coming into the year, it’s a bit baffling to see Seattle ranked fifth in team DVOA and ninth in net points per drive (0.28), but there’s no denying that the formula has worked in the first year sans Russell Wilson. Geno Smith and the Seahawks’ offense gets much of the credit, but this defense has been one of the NFL’s best in recent weeks and should be able to thwart Tom Brady and this limping Bucs unit.

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Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks
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LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-4.5) over Indianapolis Colts

Some spots are just too obvious to stay away. That’s the case here with the Raiders, and I’m honestly surprised this game hasn’t hit the key number of 7.

Betting on the NFL?

Forget the coaching mess for a second: On the field alone, the Colts rank 31st in DVOA and have one of the worst offenses in football behind struggling sophomore passer Sam Ehlinger. Now consider that his play-caller this week was a quality control coach two years ago, and his current boss has zero coaching experience beyond high school football. This could be the ugliest result of the week.

Last week: 1-0-1. Falcons (P), Seahawks (W).

Season: 7-8-1.

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Picks, odds for every game

Just when it looked as if the Giants’ choices for starting quarterback Sunday against the Packers in London were down to Davis Webb and Prince Harry, Big Blue got some good news when Daniel Jones’ sprained left ankle showed improvement at practice Wednesday.

That development makes it a far more palatable option to take the Giants +8 points against Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers and his receivers are still not quite in sync, the short week won’t help them get there, and on the other side of the ball, the game appears to shape up similarly to the Packers’ matchup last week against the Patriots at Lambeau Field. Piloted by third-string QB Bailey Zappe, Bill Belichick’s team put on a good offensive showing win a 27-24 overtime loss.

The Packers knew the Patriots were going try to run the ball, and still New England pounded out 167 rushing yards. The presence of Jones should at least make Green Bay think twice about attacking Saquon Barkley (113 yards per game) with eight-man boxes, and I also have confidence Brian Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka will have some creative answers if the Packers pursue Barkley too aggressively.

In terms of a betting situation, the Giants are also back in their happy place (or, this one being in England, their jolly place) as they are 22-12-2 ATS in road and neutral-site games since the beginning of the 2018 season.

Giants vs. Packers pick: Giants +8.

Daniel Jones
Getty Images

NEW YORK JETS (+3) over Miami Dolphins

A few weeks ago, ahead of the Bengals game, we detailed here that the Jets are winless after each of their rare victories in the short Robert Saleh era. Let’s not get into all of the gory details again other than to point out that the record in those spots is now 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS after the loss to Cincinnati.

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So what has changed in two weeks? Well for one thing, the Jets’ starting quarterback, Zach Wilson, is back, while the opposition will be using its backup, Teddy Bridgewater. And the defense is finally starting to take shape, with Quinnen Williams looking like a beast and the secondary coming off four interceptions in Pittsburgh.

Miami WR Jaylen Waddle didn’t practice Wednesday and was limited Thursday. His absence, or at least diminished status, would enable the Jets to use their best resources on Tyreek Hill while Williams, Carl Lawson and Jermaine Johnson go after Bridgewater.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+14) over BUFFALO BILLS

Don’t know if this is a classic sandwich game for Buffalo, but for some reason I’m craving a beef on weck. Bills had tough battles with the Dolphins and Ravens, and next week go to Arrowhead to face the Chiefs. Will take the big head start with Kenny Pickett, who can do more with the Steelers’ offense than Mitch Trubisky did.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-9.5) over Atlanta Falcons

It’s the third road game in the past four weeks for Atlanta, but this is more just a feeling that the Bucs, injuries and all, are going to be geared up for a no-doubter coming off back-to-back losses to the Packers and Chiefs.

Tennessee Titans (-1.5) over WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Tennessee picked up a big victory last week in Indianapolis, so the edge in need belongs to Washington after three losses in a row. Injuries to Treylon Burks (Titans) and Jahan Dotson (Commanders) could be a wash, but I just feel as if I’m getting the better team at a very cheap price.

Derrick Henry
AP

CLEVELAND BROWNS (+2.5) over Los Angeles Chargers

This is a good time to salute Paul Schwartz for his incredible 14-1-1 ATS master class in last week’s Bettor’s Guide. His one loss was on Cleveland, and Paul is going the other way with L.A. here. But I figure Nick Chubb and the returning Myles Garrett will makes this a tough go for the Chargers.

Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Saints have a one-point win followed by three losses, a bunch of injuries, and the jet lag from last week’s trip to London to consider. Though desperation could help them snag a “W,” there’s a long way to go from there to distancing Geno Smith and the Seahawks by six or more.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3.5) over Detroit Lions

Did you think you’d ever see this tiny spread for a Patriots-Lions game in Foxborough? Me neither. I’m rolling with it because, after scoring 24 points with Zappe and a limited offense in Green Bay, New England should be able to do even more against this Lions D. Also a revenge game for Matt Patricia, fired two years ago by Detroit.

Houston Texans (+7) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

I don’t usually focus on series results, but the Texans have won eight in a row and 19 of the past 23 against the Jaguars. Jacksonville seemingly has a bit of an upper hand now, but I’m not sure I can go from these results to Jags -7 so directly.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-7.5) over Chicago Bears

Little bit worried about laying seven plus the hook because -6.5 was available earlier. Chicago’s offense was a little less prehistoric last week as Justin Fields threw for 174 yards, but the Bears still lost by eight to the Giants. Thinking Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson get this to the neighborhood of the Vikings’ 23-7 win over the Packers in Week 1.

Kirk Cousins
USA TODAY Sports

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

Long trip for the 49ers off a big Monday night rivalry win. Normally, that’s a recipe for a letdown. But this defense is insanely good, and Kyle Shanahan will find a way to generate more than the 10 points the 49ers put up in each of two road losses in September.

Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) over LOS ANGELES RAMS

Losses by 21 to the Bills and 15 to the 49ers convince me the Rams have taken a step or two down from the mountaintop. With a strong, opportunistic defense and serviceable QB Cooper Rush, the Cowboys could win this one outright.

Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS

Even though the last undefeated team in any given season is always living on borrowed time, the Eagles are worthy of support after their savage comeback from 14-0 down versus the Jaguars.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

It has been a frustrating start for John Harbaugh and the Ravens, who have flushed big home leads to the Dolphins and Bills. The Bengals come in off extra rest after distancing Miami, and will have confidence off of their 41-17 and 41-21 wins over Baltimore last season.

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Monday

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7) over Las Vegas Raiders

The Silver and Black are coming off their first win, and many will remember their 40-32 victory at Arrowhead in 2020. But in the surrounding seasons, their visits produced beat-downs of 48-9, 40-9 and 35-3.

Best bets

Steelers, Titans, Cowboys.

Lock of the week

Steelers (Locks 3-1 in 2022.)

Last week

8-7-1 overall, 2-1 Best Bets.

Thursday

Broncos (L).

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