Tag: soccer betting

Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace pick: Premier League predictions, odds

Sunday’s lone Premier League match will have massive ramifications at both ends of the table.

With a win over Crystal Palace, league-leaders Arsenal would go into the final international break of the season with an eight-point lead over Manchester City with one more match played.

Palace, meanwhile, are now firmly in the relegation battle with just three points separating them from the drop zone. 

Does Palace have a hope of pulling off one of the biggest results of the season?

Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal pick

Patrick Vieira’s Crystal Palace were one of the most impressive teams in the Premier League last season.

The Eagles punched above their weight en route to a 12th-place finish and their expected goal difference suggested they deserved even better. 

Palace’s defense was the driving force behind its success, as the Eagles finished seventh in goals conceded and fifth in expected goals allowed.

That defensive performance is what made Crystal Palace a trendy sleeper pick for the 2022-23 season.

Palace then backed up all that hype with a terrific showing on the Opening Day of the season.

Though they lost, 2-0, to Arsenal, Palace looked a tough nut to crack and probably deserved a better result on that day. Everything was looking up for the Eagles.


Wilfried Zaha of Crystal Palace
Getty Images

Unfortunately, things have gone awry since that day.

The Eagles have struggled in all phases of the game, but the defense has completely lost the plot compared to what we saw in 2021-22.

The Eagles rank 12th in non-penalty expected goals allowed, 13th in big scoring chances conceded and are the fourth-worst team in the circuit in preventing the opposition from entering their 18-yard box.

It’s a strange twist of events considering this is basically the same unit we saw last year with the same manager.

Arsenal should have no issues breaking down this Palace defense.

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The Gunners take more shots and create more box entries than any team in the Premier League and rank second in both expected goals created and big scoring chances generated.

Arsenal can likely name their score on Sunday.

That said, there are some cracks starting to show in the Arsenal defense.

After a brilliant first half of the season, the Gunners have seen their defensive numbers dip a bit since the World Cup break.

Arsenal still boasts one of the best defenses in the world, but their form has wobbled and Palace could find a way on the scoresheet.

Arsenal should do most of the heavy-lifting for this over 3.5, but Palace can contribute, too.

Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal prediction

Over 3.5 goals (+195, FanDuel)

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Bournemouth vs. Wolverhampton odds, pick

It’s been an ugly stretch for Bournemouth Football Club. The Cherries are 0-2-5 (W-D-L) in their seven matches since the World Cup and have scored just twice, while giving up 12 goals in that span. Bournemouth is now sitting in 19th-place with 18 points from 22 matches and is a -450 favorite to be relegated.

Bournemouth will have a chance to close the gap on one of the teams its chasing, Wolverhampton Wanderers, on Saturday.

Wolves are a -155 home favorite on the three-way moneyline.

Bournemouth vs. Wolverhampton prediction

10 a.m. ET, Peacock

There’s very little in the numbers that suggest that Bournemouth can make a charge up the table and save themselves from relegation, but there is reason to be cautiously optimistic that the Cherries can be a tough out against Wolverhampton at the Molineux on Saturday. 

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The Cherries have mustered up just two goals in their last seven matches, but they’ve created close to seven expected goals, meaning they should experience some positive regression at some point. Bournemouth are playing poorly — they boast a -7.1 expected goal difference since the World Cup — but the Cherries are not playing as bad as their -10 goal differential implies.


Marco Senesi
AFC Bournemouth via Getty Images

On the opposite side of the coin, Wolverhampton have enjoyed a bit of a new-manager bounce since the World Cup. Wolves have four wins, one draw and three losses since the Premier League returned and own a +2 goal difference in that seven-game stretch. Wolverhampton needed a stretch like that to give themselves some breathing room in the relegation fight and they’ve accomplished that and now sit five points above 18th-place Everton. 

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The feeling around the Black Country is that Wolverhampton have found their footing under Julen Lopetegui, but the truth is that Wolves are not playing that much better than they were under previous manager Bruno Lage. The only difference is that Wolverhampton is finishing its chances and getting saves from goalkeeper Jose Sa. According to Understat, Wolves should have around 7.3 points from its last seven contests, not 13. 

Wolverhampton is a much better team than Bournemouth and is a deserving favorite — especially at home — but this number is way too high on a very vulnerable, flawed team that is just going through a hot stretch. Getting near +480 to take on Wolverhampton is always going to be worth a hard look, even if the team you need to back is Bournemouth. 

Bournemouth vs. Wolverhampton pick

Bournemouth +480 (FanDuel)

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Arsenal vs. Manchester United odds, picks

With three wins on the spin, the crisis seems to be over at Manchester United. After unceremoniously dropping their first two matches of the season against Brighton and Brentford, the Red Devils have responded with victories over Liverpool, Southampton and Leicester City to vaulted themselves to fifth-place in the Premier League with a 3-0-2 (W-D-L) record and a -2 goal differential. 

There are still plenty of questions about how good United truly are and if they’ve just been able to take advantage of a relatively soft schedule, but we should have a better idea of where this team is at with a tough match against first-place Arsenal on Sunday. The match will begin at 11:30 a.m. ET and will be broadcast on USA Network.

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While there are still skeptics about the Red Devils, it’s hard to find much fault with Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal through the first five matches of the campaign. Sure, the Gunners have certainly benefited from a soft schedule that’s seen them play Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, Leicester City, Fulham, and Aston Villa, but they’ve passed every test with flying colors and currently sit with the second-best expected goal differential (+7.3) in the league.

Gabriel Jesus celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal on Aug 31.
Getty Images

Arsenal’s attack seems potent and the arrival of Gabriel Jesus seems to be a huge boost, but it’s the Gunners defense that has been most impressive. Only one team (Man City) has a better xGA rating compared to Arsenal so far. 

United also offer plenty of starpower going forward with Marcus Rashford, Bruno Fernandes, Jadon Sancho, Cristiano Ronaldo and Christian Eriksen, but their defense has been inconsistent out of the gates, though they did seem to take a step in the right direction with back-to-back clean sheets against Southampton and Leicester. 

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All due respect to Saints and the Foxes (and a depleted Liverpool team), this will likely the stiffest test the United defense have faced to date this season and there are still reasons to doubt that the Red Devils can cope. United are still learning Erik ten Hag’s pressing system and are vulnerable to quick attacks when they’re caught out of shape. 

There will come a time to sell high on undefeated Arsenal, but this is not that time. Just consider this: Had this match been played two weeks ago, Arsenal would likely be around +140 on the three-way moneyline. The market has become infatuated with Manchester United once again.

Manchester United vs. Arsenal pick

Arsenal +165

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Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle prediction: Go with live underdog

If you look at the record through five matches, it makes sense that the betting market remains skeptical of Crystal Palace.

Patrick Vieira’s Eagles are 1-2-2 (W-D-L) with a -2 goal differential, but those numbers need some context.

No team in the Premier League has played a tougher stretch of opponents to open 2022-23 than the Eagles, who have taken on Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Aston Villa and Brentford.

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Crystal Palace will face another stiff test with an away match against Newcastle on Saturday.

Despite the fact that Newcastle will be without Callum Wilson, Bruno Guimaraes and Allan Saint-Maximin, they are the +100 favorite on the three-way moneyline.

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When you factor in home-field advantage (around 30-40 cents in soccer), these odds suggest that this injury-riddled version of Newcastle would be a decent favorite over Crystal Palace on a neutral field.

Palace’s defense graded out as a top-six unit last season in terms of preventing expected goals and big scoring chances.

This season they rank 15th in expected goals allowed through Matchweek 5, but when you look at the offenses they’ve played and how those matches played out, they were up 1-0 on Liverpool and 2-0 on Manchester City, it makes sense that their xGA is a little inflated. Crystal Palace is a live ’dog on Saturday.

The play: Crystal Palace +275.

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