Tag: Post Action Betting

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The NFL Divisional round kicks off with a marquee matchup that features two of the best signal callers in the game.

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Texas vs. Ravens pick

Since their season-opening clash, where the Ravens secured a 25-9 victory, both teams have undergone transformations. Baltimore emerges as the AFC frontrunner for the Super Bowl, while the Texans signal their potential to contend for AFC glory in the coming years.

A closer analysis of this matchup reveals a more balanced contest than the line suggests. Both the Ravens and Texans boast an 8-4 record against teams with a winning record this season. Remarkably, both quarterbacks have excelled in protecting the football, combining for only 12 interceptions while delivering 50 touchdowns in nearly 1,000 pass attempts.

Jackson stands out for his dynamic running, while Stroud showcases prowess as a dynamic passer. The Ravens exhibit a superior pass defense, countered by the Texans’ robust run defense, evening out the playing field. While the Ravens bring experience, boasting a 1-3 playoff record with Jackson, Stroud has already achieved postseason success after just one game.

While favoring the Ravens for the win, the game is expected to be closely contested. Ultimately, the outcome may hinge on a field goal, with the Ravens benefiting from the significant advantage of having Justin Tucker as their kicker. This matchup doesn’t seem like a two-possession game for the Ravens, and the Texans, under Ryans, are likely to continue their season-long trend of battling fiercely and keeping the game tight.

Pick: Texans +9.5 (-110)

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Red Wings vs. Hurricanes prediction: NHL odds, picks, bets

The Red Wings have taken January by storm.

After suffering a horrid 3-9-1 record in December, Detroit has seemingly left the bad omens in 2023, going 5-0-1 ever since.

It’s reaped some rest benefits since Sunday’s 4-1 win over a popcorn muscled Toronto team on the second leg of a back-to-back. 

Carolina has caught a pair of losses in its last four games since sewing a five-game win streak together.

The Hurricanes are 2-2 amidst their ongoing homestand ahead of Friday’s puck drop against the Wings. 

The first meeting between these two resulted in a 2-1 Carolina victory on Dec. 14.

The Canes dominated five-on-five puck possession for the entirety of the game, but goaltending kept Detroit in the action with 37 of 39 shots on goal turned aside. 


Antti Raanta of the Hurricanes makes a save during the second period against the Kings. NHLI via Getty Images

It was much of the same script in Monday’s 4-2 loss to the Kings, but some misplays in Carolina’s own end cost it three late goals before an empty net sealed the contest.

Alex Lyon has been much to thank for Detroit’s resurgence in Ville Husso’s stead.

Lyon is holding a .927 save percentage through the six-game points streak and has elevated himself to a No. 12 overall ranked 8.3 xGSA.

The weight is all on 34-year-old Antti Raanta’s shoulders in the Canes’ crease with both Frederik Anderson and Petr Kochetkov nursing their respective injuries.

Betting on the NHL?

Despite the strong structure in front of him that’s allowing the fewest shots against in the NHL, he’s been having an underwhelming year to say the least at -11 xGSA. 

The Hurricanes play persistently aggressive hockey, but their goaltending has stopped just 88 percent of shots against.

All things considered, the Red Wings can’t keep winning with weak five-on-five play.

Raanta’s wobbles aside, I’m not sure Lyon can compensate enough for the colossal disparity in 200-foot hockey here.

The play: Hurricanes -1.5 (+130, DraftKings).

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Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M

This is Part 2 of the Post Action College Bowl Guide. 

Sometimes, it seems foolish to risk hard-earned money on bowl games. Dozens of teams show up after multiple weeks off, unrecognizable from the groups that spent the fall together. Coaches are gone. Stars have too much to lose to show up. Backups and role players are weighing offers in the transfer portal. 

So, why even bother making predictions? 

Because it beats the alternative. 

Military 

Tulane (+10.5) over Virginia Tech

By now — after watching the past few weeks, after watching the past few years of games impacted by opt-outs — you should know not to overreact to the absence of any coach or player this time of year.

Tulane will be without head coach Willie Fritz and quarterback Michael Pratt, but the Green Wave will have much of their 11-win core, which took down Caleb Williams and USC in last season’s Cotton Bowl. Backup quarterback Kai Horton has seen few snaps, but has made the most of them, leading Tulane to an overtime win at Houston last year and during a close battle against No. 11 Ole Miss this season. 

Duke’s Mayo 

North Carolina (+6.5) over West Virginia

Drake Maye is off to prepare for his selection as a top-two pick in the NFL draft, triggering overwhelming action on the Mountaineers. Yet, the line hasn’t budged. North Carolina will still put up points, with the nation’s fifth-leading rusher (Omarion Hampton) and a dual-threat quarterback — “I feel like I can do everything,” Conner Harrell said. “West Virginia doesn’t have much film, they’re going to have a tough time, not really knowing.” — going against the nation’s 79th-ranked defense. 


Kevin Coleman #3 of the Louisville Cardinals. Getty Images

Holiday 

Louisville (-7) over USC

The Trojans have allowed an average of 42.4 points over their past eight games. Best of luck keeping pace without a former Heisman-winning quarterback (Williams), as well as the team’s leading rusher (Marshawn Lloyd) and receiver (Brenden Rice). 

Betting on College Football?

Texas 

Oklahoma State (-2) over Texas A&M

Continuity counts for something. While the Cowboys — who have won five of their past seven bowl games under Mike Gundy — will have virtually their entire roster available, Jimbo Fisher’s former team will be missing double-digit players who have either opted out or entered the transfer portal, including their starting quarterback and tight end, top-two receivers, leading tackler, three cornerbacks and a pair of five-star defensive linemen from their top-10 defense. 

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First Responder Bowl odds, pick, best bet

The 7-5 Texas State Bobcats battle the 6-6 Rice Owls in the First Responder Bowl on the day after Christmas, and it’s among the easiest bowl games to handicap this Holiday season. 

Two combined players for these squads entered the transfer portal – both for Texas State – and both coaching units remain intact. 

These are two fully-formed squads, save for one major exception. 

Rice starting quarterback JT Daniels “medically” retired from college football after Week 11, thrusting backup quarterback AJ Padgett into action. 

I think the quarterback matchup will be the difference-maker in this bowl game. 

Texas State vs. Rice odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Texas State -3.5 (-110) -180 o60 (-110)
Rice +3.5 (-110) +152 u60 (-110)
(Via Caesars)

Teas State vs. Rice prediction

(5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Daniels had a pretty good year. He threw for 2,500 yards and 21 touchdowns while leading an Owls unit that finished top 20 nationally in EPA per Pass. 

He completed deep balls, making the Owls’ aerial attack explosive. Top wideout Luke McCaffery – Christian McCaffery’s younger brother – almost touched 1,000 yards on over 14 yards per reception with 12 scores. 

But that same explosive passing offense hasn’t been there with Padgett.

The second-year signal-caller has a career Pro Football Focus passing grade under 53. He’s managed five big-time throws to nine turnover-worthy plays. He’s averaging a meager 6.5 yards per attempt. 

Behind Padgett, the Owls threw for a combined 384 yards over their final three contests. 

The dropoff from Daniels to Padgett is exacerbated in this matchup because the Bobcats’ secondary is their weakest unit. 

The Bobcats couldn’t stop the aerial attack this year, ranking 96th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed, 111th in Pass Explosiveness allowed and 123rd in EPA per Pass allowed. 


Rice Owls head coach Mike Bloomgren. Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

But I don’t think Padgett can exploit the one monstrous glaring weakness. 

I don’t trust Rice head coach Mike Bloomgren to out-coach Texas State head coach GJ Kinne. Kinne transformed the Bobs in his inaugural season, while Bloomgren’s Owls failed to beat a single Bowl team this year. 

Conversely, I think Texas State’s starting quarterback, TJ Finley, can make plays against Rice. 

Rice’s pass defense is passable but not elite, as the Owls finished the regular season around 50th nationally in EPA per Pass allowed. Their pass rush isn’t great, as they finished 101st in total pressures created – that’s unfortunate when playing against Finley, who struggles mightily under pressure. 

Finely averaged 8.5 yards per attempt with 24 touchdowns on 17 big-time throws this year. The Bobcats ranked top 30 nationally in Pass Success Rate and EPA per Pass. Finley was especially good in Passing Downs, ranking 10th among qualified quarterbacks in Passing Downs Success Rate and Catchable Throw Rate. 

If Finley produces against Rice’s pass defense, it’s curtains for the Owls because their rush defense is relatively weaker, ranking 66th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and 89th in Rush PPA per Play allowed. 

Meanwhile, Texas State lead running back Ismail Mahdi created 38 double-digit-yard rushes this year on 47 missed tackles. 

Even better, he’s a threat in the return game: 

Betting on College Football?

Mahdi’s pure explosiveness can exploit a mediocre front seven. 

Overall, I’ll happily lay the points with Kinne, Finley and Madhi against Bloomgren and Padgett, mainly because Rice won’t exploit the Bobcats’ one significant weakness.

Texas State vs. Rice Pick

Texas State -3.5 (Caesars) | Play to -5

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Raiders-Chiefs, Giants-Eagles, Ravens-49ers NFL DFS PrizePicks

Happy holidays! Week 16 of the NFL season wraps up with three games on Christmas Day: 

  • Raiders vs. Chiefs, 1 p.m. ET
  • Giants vs. Eagles, 4:30 ET
  • Ravens vs. 49ers, 8:15 p.m. ET

Let’s take a look at three of my favorite projections to target on PrizePicks. 

Rashee Rice (Chiefs) more than 67.5 receiving yards 

Rice has seen his role grow tremendously as the season has progressed. Over the past four weeks, he has earned an incredible 38 targets while leading the team with a 27.5% target share. 

The rookie wideout has been Patrick Mahomes’ first read on a whopping 32.7% of his drop-backs in that timeframe. If Rice had posted that same first-read rate over the full season, he would rank 11th in the league, just behind the Lions’ Amon-Ra St. Brown and ahead of the Cowboys’ CeeDee Lamb. 

His breakout began against this same Raiders defense in Week 12 when he posted eight receptions for 107 yards and a touchdown. 

Rice has averaged 83.5 receiving yards in the four games since. He has eclipsed the 67.5 receiving yards projection in three of those four games, and the one time he came up short he was just 3.5 yards shy of the projection. 

Assuming his recent volume holds up, Rice should be able to beat this projection of 67.5 receiving yards. 

Darren Waller (Giants) more than 3.5 receptions 

The Giants tight end missed five games because of a hamstring injury earlier this season. Waller returned in Week 15 against the Saints and hauled in four receptions for 40 yards. 

He posted that production despite playing just 42% of the snaps. The Giants have clearly been cautious in bringing him back, as Waller played on at least 80% of snaps in six of seven games to begin the season. He should be in for increased playing time as he continues to move further away from the injury. 

Waller has topped 3.5 receptions in five of eight healthy games this season despite spotty quarterback play from Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor earlier in the year. Tommy DeVito has arguably played better than any other QB to suit up for the Giants this season. 


Giants tight end Darren Waller AP

The Giants wide receivers room lacks talent and Waller should have no trouble earning targets from DeVito this week. The game script should feature heavy pass volume for the Giants, as they project to be playing from behind.   

Waller should see his playing time tick up in this game and he could be featured as the top option in the passing game, allowing him to easily rack up more than 3.5 receptions.

Christian McCaffrey (49ers) more than 120.5 rushing + receiving yards 

McCaffrey leads the NFL with 1,801 scrimmage yards this season. Going into the week, he had racked up nearly 250 more scrimmage yards than his closest competitor, Tyreek Hill. 

McCaffrey has averaged more than 128 rushing + receiving yards per game this season, and he has recorded more than 120.5 yards in eight of 14 games. In the two of those games he fell short of this projection he missed by fewer than 3 yards. 

The All-Pro running back has at least 121 scrimmage yards in five of his last six games, including in each of the last four games. 


49ers running back Christian McCaffrey Getty Images

Baltimore should be able to push back against the Niners and keep this game relatively close into the fourth quarter, which would help secure a huge workload for McCaffrey. 

The Ravens defense is a difficult matchup as they rank top 10 in yards allowed on the ground and through the air, but the Niners will surely find a way to get McCaffrey in open space where he can win in any matchup. 

Expect McCaffrey to rack up more than 120.5 rushing + receiving yards in what should be a competitive game to close out Week 16.

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NFL Week 16 DFS picks on PrizePicks: Joe Flacco, Bijan Robinson

We did it again! Our Week 15 NFL plays on PrizePicks went 4-0 last week, so if you used them in the Power Play, you were able to 10x your buy-in. 

We’ll look to keep it going here in Week 16.

There are a lot of slates this Christmas weekend, but we will focus on the nine morning and afternoon games on Sunday. 

Joe Flacco (Browns) more than 244.5 passing yards

Flacco, who came through for us last week, has thrown for at least 250 yards in all three of his starts this season. After being a run-first team all season, the Browns have let Flacco air it out since he took over the quarterback duties in Cleveland. 

This should be another pass-heavy game plan for the Browns, as the Texans have been a pass-funnel matchup all season. Houston is fifth in DVOA against the run and 23rd in DVOA against the pass. 

This projection for Flacco seems too low for a quarterback in this matchup who has attempted at least 44 passes in each of his three starts.  


Bijan Robinson Getty Images

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) more than 84.5 rushing + receiving yards

Putting faith in Arthur Smith is never fun, but he’s on the coaching hot seat and we have a squeaky-wheel narrative brewing with Robinson. 

The rookie running back was heavily featured in Weeks 10-13 and the team went 3-0 during that stretch. Over the last two games, Robinson has only had a total of 23 touches. 

This is essentially a must-win game for the Falcons (and perhaps Smith), and I expect them to go right back to their star running back.

The matchup is certainly enticing, as the Colts have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards and the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs this season. 

Trey McBride (Cardinals) more than 60.5 receiving yards

It’s wild to think McBride was playing behind Zach Ertz at the start of the season.

Over the last seven games, he’s been one of the most productive tight ends in the NFL., with at least 60 receiving yards in five of those games.

Now he faces a Bears team that has allowed the third-most receptions to tight ends this season.

Kyler Murray clearly likes throwing to McBride, who has commanded a total of 29 targets over the last three games. 

Betting on the NFL?

Chase McLaughlin (Buccaneers) more than 1.5 field goals made

With kicker projections, I look for teams that are favored and are playing in games with good weather (or indoors). 

The Buccaneers are small favorites at home against the Jaguars. Both teams are better at defending the run than the pass, which should result in more plays for each offense (more clock stoppages).

The high pass volume is also good for kickers with more third-and-long situations.

McLaughlin has made at least two field goals in 10 of 14 games this season, and his setup for Sunday looks ideal for at least two more. 

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All signs point to Detroit

How many lumps?

Tee time at Augusta National.

The world’s worst driver, Tiger Woods, on playing in this year’s Masters: “I don’t know how many more I have in me.” Woods, who has taken his lumps over the years, hasn’t crashed his car in more than 26 months, showed his “fun” side by handing Justin Thomas a tampon when he, get this, outdrove him at a tournament in February and is 66-1 to win the green jacket.

Speaking of Tigers. Opening Day in Detroit.

The Cats host the Red Sox.

Boston’s Chris Sale, who has made almost as many hospital trips as Woods, will make his second start on the year.

Sale was torched for seven runs in three innings by the Orioles.

The Tiger’s Spencer Turnbull was a bit more efficient, allowing seven runs in just 2 ¹/₃ innings to the Rays.

Play $50 on the Tigers.

Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting

Rain in Cincinnati and the Cubs/Reds game was postponed.

No plays keeps us at -57 nordegrens.

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Hawkeyes will win national title

Iowa shocked the college basketball world when it halted South Carolina’s undefeated run to clinch a spot in Sunday’s national championship game.

And it’s hard to imagine betting against the Hawkeyes in the final.

Caitlin Clark was brilliant in Friday’s 77-73 semifinal win over the top-seeded Gamecocks, scoring or assisting on 75 percent of Iowa’s points to spark the team’s first win in the Final Four.

That’s nothing new for the Wooden Award winner, who ranks third in scoring (27.7 PPG) and first in assists (8.6 APG) across the entire season.

She’s upped those totals in the tournament, averaging 32.2 points and 10.4 assists en route to five Hawkeyes wins — with the first four coming by an average of 21 points.

That includes back-to-back 41-point efforts for Clark against two of the best teams in the country.

LSU deserves credit for its path to the title game, too, but Kim Mulkey’s group simply hasn’t been as dominant nor as battle-tested to this point.

The Tigers faced just two ranked opponents before the NCAA Tournament, which included a 24-point loss to the very South Carolina team that Iowa beat on Friday.

They also nearly lost to Utah in the Sweet 16 and trailed Virginia Tech by nine in the fourth quarter before rallying to set up Sunday’s showdown.

Betting on College Basketball?

LSU will have a size advantage in the final, but Iowa was the smaller team against South Carolina, too.

It didn’t matter with Clark’s sheer brilliance on display, and I’d expect a similar showing in this one.

The play: Iowa -3.5.

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Claim $200 in MA for Spurs-Warriors, any game

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Massachusetts residents can get the FanDuel go-live promo code to claim $200 in bonus bets. Those not in Massachusetts can use the standard FanDuel promo code that lets new users get a no sweat bet up to $1,000. If you use the promo codes on a losing bet, that money is still returned back as bet credits.

Spurs vs. Warriors pick

This point in the NBA season often features games between teams that are going in opposite directions and tonight’s Spurs-Warriors game in the Bay Area is no exception.

Golden State is favored by 15.5 points on FanDuel Sportsbook and I’m confident the Warriors will be able to cover. San Antonio is a bad team that is fading down the stretch and Golden State should be able to win fairly comfortably.

The Spurs (19-57) have the third-worst record in the NBA and have lost five straight games entering tonight, each one by double digits. San Antonio has been a bottom-feeder all year, as evidenced by its league-worst -10.5 point differential per game, and is just running out the string on the season.

This season has been rocky for the Warriors but it appears they are starting to put things together after winning four of their past five games. Steph Curry is fully healthy and is always capable of an excellent performance in front of the Golden State home crowd, where the team is 31-8 this year.

The Warriors may play with their food for a little bit and let the Spurs hang around, but it will be a lopsided score by the time this one goes final, so back Golden State to cover with the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code.

The pick: Warriors -15.5

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BetMGM Bonus Code NPBONUS1100 unlocks $1,100 offer for Texas-Miami, any game

New York Post readers can take advantage of the BetMGM exclusive bonus code NPBONUS1100 that lets you get up to $1100 paid back in bonus bets if you don’t win.

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The Elite Eight wraps up with a great matchup when No. 2 Texas plays No. 5 Miami in Kansas City. Follow the links below to learn more about each offer, and any of these offers are good for all sports on BetMGM.

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Texas vs. Miami pick

The final game of the Elite Eight features a battle of football schools when the No. 2 Texas Longhorns play the No. 5 Miami Hurricanes in the Midwest region.

Texas is favored by 4.5 points on BetMGM and that feels a bit too high for me. Miami’s guards have been playing very well on its tournament run and the Longhorns may not be at full strength.

Senior forward Dylan Disu was taken out of the Longhorns’ Sweet 16 win over Xavier after suffering a bone bruise in his left foot. He was later seen in a walking boot and it’s unclear whether he’ll play today against the Hurricanes. Disu would be a big loss for Texas if he can’t play because he is the team’s leading shot blocker (1.3 BPG) and second-leading rebounder (4.4 RPG).

The Longhorns still had five players reach double figures against Xavier, so they are capable of overcoming Disu’s absence.

Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are red-hot after beating No. 1 Houston 89-75 in the Sweet 16. Nijel Pack went off for 26 points and Isaiah Wong added 20 of his own. Both Pack and Wong now have two 20-point games already this tournament and if they both get hot against Texas, watch out.

With Disu likely not at full strength and the Hurricanes’ guards playing so well, I like Miami to cover against Texas. Use bonus code NPBONUS1100 to bet on the Canes, or take Miami on the moneyline at +160 on BetMGM.

The pick: Miami +4.5

What is the BetMGM bonus code?

BetMGM Bonus Code  NPBONUS1100
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