Tag: college football betting

Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M

This is Part 2 of the Post Action College Bowl Guide. 

Sometimes, it seems foolish to risk hard-earned money on bowl games. Dozens of teams show up after multiple weeks off, unrecognizable from the groups that spent the fall together. Coaches are gone. Stars have too much to lose to show up. Backups and role players are weighing offers in the transfer portal. 

So, why even bother making predictions? 

Because it beats the alternative. 

Military 

Tulane (+10.5) over Virginia Tech

By now — after watching the past few weeks, after watching the past few years of games impacted by opt-outs — you should know not to overreact to the absence of any coach or player this time of year.

Tulane will be without head coach Willie Fritz and quarterback Michael Pratt, but the Green Wave will have much of their 11-win core, which took down Caleb Williams and USC in last season’s Cotton Bowl. Backup quarterback Kai Horton has seen few snaps, but has made the most of them, leading Tulane to an overtime win at Houston last year and during a close battle against No. 11 Ole Miss this season. 

Duke’s Mayo 

North Carolina (+6.5) over West Virginia

Drake Maye is off to prepare for his selection as a top-two pick in the NFL draft, triggering overwhelming action on the Mountaineers. Yet, the line hasn’t budged. North Carolina will still put up points, with the nation’s fifth-leading rusher (Omarion Hampton) and a dual-threat quarterback — “I feel like I can do everything,” Conner Harrell said. “West Virginia doesn’t have much film, they’re going to have a tough time, not really knowing.” — going against the nation’s 79th-ranked defense. 


Kevin Coleman #3 of the Louisville Cardinals. Getty Images

Holiday 

Louisville (-7) over USC

The Trojans have allowed an average of 42.4 points over their past eight games. Best of luck keeping pace without a former Heisman-winning quarterback (Williams), as well as the team’s leading rusher (Marshawn Lloyd) and receiver (Brenden Rice). 

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Texas 

Oklahoma State (-2) over Texas A&M

Continuity counts for something. While the Cowboys — who have won five of their past seven bowl games under Mike Gundy — will have virtually their entire roster available, Jimbo Fisher’s former team will be missing double-digit players who have either opted out or entered the transfer portal, including their starting quarterback and tight end, top-two receivers, leading tackler, three cornerbacks and a pair of five-star defensive linemen from their top-10 defense. 

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First Responder Bowl odds, pick, best bet

The 7-5 Texas State Bobcats battle the 6-6 Rice Owls in the First Responder Bowl on the day after Christmas, and it’s among the easiest bowl games to handicap this Holiday season. 

Two combined players for these squads entered the transfer portal – both for Texas State – and both coaching units remain intact. 

These are two fully-formed squads, save for one major exception. 

Rice starting quarterback JT Daniels “medically” retired from college football after Week 11, thrusting backup quarterback AJ Padgett into action. 

I think the quarterback matchup will be the difference-maker in this bowl game. 

Texas State vs. Rice odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Texas State -3.5 (-110) -180 o60 (-110)
Rice +3.5 (-110) +152 u60 (-110)
(Via Caesars)

Teas State vs. Rice prediction

(5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Daniels had a pretty good year. He threw for 2,500 yards and 21 touchdowns while leading an Owls unit that finished top 20 nationally in EPA per Pass. 

He completed deep balls, making the Owls’ aerial attack explosive. Top wideout Luke McCaffery – Christian McCaffery’s younger brother – almost touched 1,000 yards on over 14 yards per reception with 12 scores. 

But that same explosive passing offense hasn’t been there with Padgett.

The second-year signal-caller has a career Pro Football Focus passing grade under 53. He’s managed five big-time throws to nine turnover-worthy plays. He’s averaging a meager 6.5 yards per attempt. 

Behind Padgett, the Owls threw for a combined 384 yards over their final three contests. 

The dropoff from Daniels to Padgett is exacerbated in this matchup because the Bobcats’ secondary is their weakest unit. 

The Bobcats couldn’t stop the aerial attack this year, ranking 96th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed, 111th in Pass Explosiveness allowed and 123rd in EPA per Pass allowed. 


Rice Owls head coach Mike Bloomgren. Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

But I don’t think Padgett can exploit the one monstrous glaring weakness. 

I don’t trust Rice head coach Mike Bloomgren to out-coach Texas State head coach GJ Kinne. Kinne transformed the Bobs in his inaugural season, while Bloomgren’s Owls failed to beat a single Bowl team this year. 

Conversely, I think Texas State’s starting quarterback, TJ Finley, can make plays against Rice. 

Rice’s pass defense is passable but not elite, as the Owls finished the regular season around 50th nationally in EPA per Pass allowed. Their pass rush isn’t great, as they finished 101st in total pressures created – that’s unfortunate when playing against Finley, who struggles mightily under pressure. 

Finely averaged 8.5 yards per attempt with 24 touchdowns on 17 big-time throws this year. The Bobcats ranked top 30 nationally in Pass Success Rate and EPA per Pass. Finley was especially good in Passing Downs, ranking 10th among qualified quarterbacks in Passing Downs Success Rate and Catchable Throw Rate. 

If Finley produces against Rice’s pass defense, it’s curtains for the Owls because their rush defense is relatively weaker, ranking 66th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and 89th in Rush PPA per Play allowed. 

Meanwhile, Texas State lead running back Ismail Mahdi created 38 double-digit-yard rushes this year on 47 missed tackles. 

Even better, he’s a threat in the return game: 

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Mahdi’s pure explosiveness can exploit a mediocre front seven. 

Overall, I’ll happily lay the points with Kinne, Finley and Madhi against Bloomgren and Padgett, mainly because Rice won’t exploit the Bobcats’ one significant weakness.

Texas State vs. Rice Pick

Texas State -3.5 (Caesars) | Play to -5

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Bahamas Bowl odds and pick

Seasoned bettors will know that weird stuff tends to happen at the Bahamas Bowl.

In fact, a few may shudder at the mere mention of the 2018 edition of this game between Florida International University (FIU) and Toledo, which has gone down in betting infamy thanks to a ridiculously bad beat for Under 57 bettors. 

In that contest, FIU led 28-25 with less than 50 seconds left and just needed a first down to end the game. Instead, FIU scored to make it 35-25 and gave the ball back to Toledo, who would hit a last-second Hail Mary pass to make it 35-31. Initially, the refs said that play ended the game, but they put two seconds back on the clock and allowed Toledo to kick the PAT, which burned basically every under ticket that was available from the time the market opened.

Will this year’s Bahamas Bowl bring more betting chaos? The game is slated to begin at 11:30 a.m. ET on Friday, being broadcasted on ESPN.

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Miami (Oh) RedHawks wide receiver Mac Hippenhammer
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Miami (Ohio) vs. UAB prediction

It’s hard to imagine a more appropriate way to begin bowl season than an 11:30 a.m. ET kick-off between a pair of 6-6 teams in the Bahamas. That’s right, baby, break out the Pina Coladas and sunblock because the UAB Blazers and Miami (Ohio) Redhawks are ready to get this party started. 

The first thing that stands out in this game is that bettors are dealing with a pretty big spread in a game with a low total. At the time of writing, UAB is a 10.5-point favorite but the Over/Under is sitting at just 44.5 points and has ticked down already.

And it makes sense that scoring could be at a premium in this contest. For one thing, the wind in the Bahamas looks like it could play a part in the passing game for both teams. At the time of writing, the forecast is calling for winds around 10 MPH. Still, Mother Nature is particularly unpredictable in the West Indies, so if you notice the total crash, you’ll know the wind is expected to pick up.

The on-field matchup also looks like it ticks a lot of boxes for a play on the under. 

For one thing, both of these offenses move at a snail’s pace — Miami ranks 109th in seconds per play, and UAB is 119th. Additionally, both coaching staffs want to keep the ball on the ground, which keeps the clock moving. UAB rushes the ball 62.8% of the time, which is the 10th-highest mark in the nation, while Miami ranks 25th at 58.8%. 

UAB Blazers quarterback Dylan Hopkins
Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

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Furthermore, neither offense seems to be set up to put up some crooked numbers on Friday. Miami’s offense ranks 99th in passing success rate, 129th in rushing success rate, and 111th in finishing drives so it won’t be able to take advantage of a pedestrian UAB defense, and the Blazers will be going up against a stout Redhawks unit that was 20th in rushing success rate and 10th in finishing drives. Miami struggled to stop the pass, but that shouldn’t be a huge deal against a team that runs the ball like it’s going out of style.

What better way to start bowl season than a bet on the Under 44.5 in a game in the Bahamas?

Miami (Ohio) vs. UAB pick

Under 44.5 (FanDuel)

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Odds, CFB picks, Bryce Young injury update

Our college football betting expert offers his best betting picks and predictions for the SEC matchup between Alabama vs. Tennessee scheduled for Saturday at Knoxville, Tennessee., at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

No. 3 Alabama faces an extreme test with the visit to No. 6 Tennessee, which will be looking to post a signature win that elevates the program back into the national elite.

Alabama vs. Tennessee predictions

• Tennessee to cover +7 spread @ -119 via Caesars Sportsbook
• Over 65 total points @ -117 via Caesars Sportsbook
• Jahmyr Gibbs over 109.5 rushing yards @ -117 via Caesars Sportsbook

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Alabama vs. Tennessee picks and analysis

The Crimson Tide are hoping quarterback Bryce Young’s throwing shoulder will heal enough for him to play, while the Volunteers’ upset chances will increase substantially if he misses a second straight game.

Tennessee to cover +7

Alabama (6-0, 3-0 SEC) is a different team without Young as redshirt freshman Jalen Milroe isn’t a sufficient passing threat. Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban said Milroe played with a lot of anxiety in last week’s 24-20 win over Texas A&M, so it’s hard to see him calmer this week if he plays.

Young, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, has passed for 1,202 yards, 14 touchdowns and three interceptions. His presence would bring confidence to the Alabama offense as well as big-time production.

The Crimson Tide have gone run-heavy without Young by gaining 317 against Arkansas on Oct. 1 and 293 versus Texas A&M. That would again be the plan against Tennessee if Young is unable to play.

The Volunteers would benefit greatly if Young can’t play as his absence would pump up their upset chances.

Our Pick: Tennessee to cover +7

Jabari Small #2 of the Tennessee Volunteers celebrates a touchdown
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Over 65 points

Tennessee (5-0, 2-0) has already beaten three ranked teams this season and is 5-0 for the first time since 2016. The Volunteers have 500-plus yards of offense in four of their five games.

Quarterback Hendon Hooker has gone a program-record 239 passes without an interception and has completed 70 percent of his passes for 1,432 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. He has been a difference-maker for a club that ranks second nationally in scoring offense (46.8 points per game) and leads the nation in total offense (547.8 yards per outing).

Alabama’s defense ranks sixth in both scoring defense (12.5) and total defense (250.8) as it looks to slow down the Vols. Tennessee also had a big game on the ground last weekend with a season-best 263 rushing yards in a 40-13 trouncing of host LSU.

The Crimson Tide are fifth in scoring offense (44.3) and seventh in total offense (503.7) while Tennessee is a big shaky with a ranking of 87th in total defense (396.6) despite being 22nd in scoring defense (17.8).

Our Pick: Over 65 points

Head coach Nick Saban of the Alabama Crimson Tide
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Jahmyr Gibbs over 109.5 rushing yards

Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs is averaging 8.3 yards per carry while rushing for 532 yards and two touchdowns. He has been especially potent the last two games with 360 yards on 39 carries.

If Young misses the game, you can expect Gibbs to get another heavy workload with part of the goal being to keep the Tennessee offense off the field. The cautionary part is he had 36 or fewer yards in three straight games before breaking out pick.

But taking the pressure off Milroe will be crucial for the Crimson Tide so we see Gibbs continuing his recent production.

Our Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs over 109.5 rushing yards

Alabama vs. Tennessee odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Total Points 65.5 Team Spread Moneyline
Over -117 Alabama (-7)  -115 -292
Under -117 Tennessee (+7) -119 +235

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