Tag: nfl betting

Raiders-Chiefs, Giants-Eagles, Ravens-49ers NFL DFS PrizePicks

Happy holidays! Week 16 of the NFL season wraps up with three games on Christmas Day: 

  • Raiders vs. Chiefs, 1 p.m. ET
  • Giants vs. Eagles, 4:30 ET
  • Ravens vs. 49ers, 8:15 p.m. ET

Let’s take a look at three of my favorite projections to target on PrizePicks. 

Rashee Rice (Chiefs) more than 67.5 receiving yards 

Rice has seen his role grow tremendously as the season has progressed. Over the past four weeks, he has earned an incredible 38 targets while leading the team with a 27.5% target share. 

The rookie wideout has been Patrick Mahomes’ first read on a whopping 32.7% of his drop-backs in that timeframe. If Rice had posted that same first-read rate over the full season, he would rank 11th in the league, just behind the Lions’ Amon-Ra St. Brown and ahead of the Cowboys’ CeeDee Lamb. 

His breakout began against this same Raiders defense in Week 12 when he posted eight receptions for 107 yards and a touchdown. 

Rice has averaged 83.5 receiving yards in the four games since. He has eclipsed the 67.5 receiving yards projection in three of those four games, and the one time he came up short he was just 3.5 yards shy of the projection. 

Assuming his recent volume holds up, Rice should be able to beat this projection of 67.5 receiving yards. 

Darren Waller (Giants) more than 3.5 receptions 

The Giants tight end missed five games because of a hamstring injury earlier this season. Waller returned in Week 15 against the Saints and hauled in four receptions for 40 yards. 

He posted that production despite playing just 42% of the snaps. The Giants have clearly been cautious in bringing him back, as Waller played on at least 80% of snaps in six of seven games to begin the season. He should be in for increased playing time as he continues to move further away from the injury. 

Waller has topped 3.5 receptions in five of eight healthy games this season despite spotty quarterback play from Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor earlier in the year. Tommy DeVito has arguably played better than any other QB to suit up for the Giants this season. 


Giants tight end Darren Waller AP

The Giants wide receivers room lacks talent and Waller should have no trouble earning targets from DeVito this week. The game script should feature heavy pass volume for the Giants, as they project to be playing from behind.   

Waller should see his playing time tick up in this game and he could be featured as the top option in the passing game, allowing him to easily rack up more than 3.5 receptions.

Christian McCaffrey (49ers) more than 120.5 rushing + receiving yards 

McCaffrey leads the NFL with 1,801 scrimmage yards this season. Going into the week, he had racked up nearly 250 more scrimmage yards than his closest competitor, Tyreek Hill. 

McCaffrey has averaged more than 128 rushing + receiving yards per game this season, and he has recorded more than 120.5 yards in eight of 14 games. In the two of those games he fell short of this projection he missed by fewer than 3 yards. 

The All-Pro running back has at least 121 scrimmage yards in five of his last six games, including in each of the last four games. 


49ers running back Christian McCaffrey
49ers running back Christian McCaffrey Getty Images

Baltimore should be able to push back against the Niners and keep this game relatively close into the fourth quarter, which would help secure a huge workload for McCaffrey. 

The Ravens defense is a difficult matchup as they rank top 10 in yards allowed on the ground and through the air, but the Niners will surely find a way to get McCaffrey in open space where he can win in any matchup. 

Expect McCaffrey to rack up more than 120.5 rushing + receiving yards in what should be a competitive game to close out Week 16.

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NFL Week 16 DFS picks on PrizePicks: Joe Flacco, Bijan Robinson

We did it again! Our Week 15 NFL plays on PrizePicks went 4-0 last week, so if you used them in the Power Play, you were able to 10x your buy-in. 

We’ll look to keep it going here in Week 16.

There are a lot of slates this Christmas weekend, but we will focus on the nine morning and afternoon games on Sunday. 

Joe Flacco (Browns) more than 244.5 passing yards

Flacco, who came through for us last week, has thrown for at least 250 yards in all three of his starts this season. After being a run-first team all season, the Browns have let Flacco air it out since he took over the quarterback duties in Cleveland. 

This should be another pass-heavy game plan for the Browns, as the Texans have been a pass-funnel matchup all season. Houston is fifth in DVOA against the run and 23rd in DVOA against the pass. 

This projection for Flacco seems too low for a quarterback in this matchup who has attempted at least 44 passes in each of his three starts.  


Bijan Robinson Getty Images

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) more than 84.5 rushing + receiving yards

Putting faith in Arthur Smith is never fun, but he’s on the coaching hot seat and we have a squeaky-wheel narrative brewing with Robinson. 

The rookie running back was heavily featured in Weeks 10-13 and the team went 3-0 during that stretch. Over the last two games, Robinson has only had a total of 23 touches. 

This is essentially a must-win game for the Falcons (and perhaps Smith), and I expect them to go right back to their star running back.

The matchup is certainly enticing, as the Colts have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards and the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs this season. 

Trey McBride (Cardinals) more than 60.5 receiving yards

It’s wild to think McBride was playing behind Zach Ertz at the start of the season.

Over the last seven games, he’s been one of the most productive tight ends in the NFL., with at least 60 receiving yards in five of those games.

Now he faces a Bears team that has allowed the third-most receptions to tight ends this season.

Kyler Murray clearly likes throwing to McBride, who has commanded a total of 29 targets over the last three games. 

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Chase McLaughlin (Buccaneers) more than 1.5 field goals made

With kicker projections, I look for teams that are favored and are playing in games with good weather (or indoors). 

The Buccaneers are small favorites at home against the Jaguars. Both teams are better at defending the run than the pass, which should result in more plays for each offense (more clock stoppages).

The high pass volume is also good for kickers with more third-and-long situations.

McLaughlin has made at least two field goals in 10 of 14 games this season, and his setup for Sunday looks ideal for at least two more. 

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Eagles and Over is way to go

Richard Witt predicts the winner of Sunday’s Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs:

Eagles -1.5 over Chiefs, Over 50.5

We find it hard to stray too much away from the fundamentals of the Chiefs-Eagles matchup. We’re more comfortable where we stand than we were just a few days ago, but our basic perspective has not radically changed.

Do we respect Patrick Mahomes and the monstrous, versatile Kansas City offense, even against a defense as good as Philadelphia’s? For sure, but to not respect the defensive proposition in a game this significant would be folly, unless multiple significant injuries come into play in short order.

We continue to suspect the offenses will maintain a meaningful edge versus the defenses they’ll be facing. The two worthies you’d expect to garner the bulk of the MVP attention (those top-drawer quarterbacks) continue to draw numerous hearts and eyeballs. It’s a challenge to tear your attention away from Mahomes and the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts.

The four most recent Supes have trended toward more moderate Over/Under ledgers, with the last quartet featuring 43, 40, 51 and 16 points. The last two scoring explosions came when the Eagles made the most of their opportunities and took out the Patriots, 41-33, in the Super Bowl LII overtime hard-knocker.


Patrick Mahomes
Getty Images

The Chiefs are blessed with a multiplicity of talented athletes on both sides of the ball. Even more impressively, they displayed an uncanny improvement advantage during the course of the season, though much of that could be attributed to their facing lesser quarterback talent during the final third of the campaign.

We’ll also readily agree that the Chiefs have proven themselves to be effective in varying defensive sets — not the least of which is their broad effectiveness when playing many varieties of zone defense, which has posed the Eagles’ offensive talent sustained difficulties. And when you’re talking about Hurts, you’re talking about a quarterback who has been less than bulletproof when attempting to make optimal throws to his right, causing him considerable discomfort on multiple occasions.

At first glance, I was considerably optimistic and bullish about the Eagles in this affair — especially if they came to the game relatively healthy, with most of the major players in reasonably good form and optimistic about the likely outcome from their sides’ perspective.

I currently believe that I was simply too optimistic about the level of stalwartness of the Eagles’ defense during my early research, especially when you consider the degree of schedule (not all that tough, boys and girls) the Eagles found themselves coming up against during the course of the long, hard season.


Jalen Hurts
AP

Bottom-lining this, I can’t deny that the Eagles could turn out to be excruciatingly vulnerable to the size, type and style of offense that the Chiefs are likely to pitch at them for well over three hours on national television.

I can still envision the Eagles winning, but they’re going to have to get off to that snappy start that many of the optimists expected they will generate. When they have wrested early command, they have been the devil to beat, but when many things don’t quite go precisely as they’d like, they’re not quite the locks to overcome all obstacles we originally envisioned.

Last week: 1-1
Season: 124-118-3.

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Five Super Bowl betting tips from longtime handicapper

An expected $15 billion will be bet illegally worldwide on Super Bowl LVII. More than half the adult population of the United States will have a stake in the Eagles-Chiefs game via U.S. and offshore bookmakers, internet wagers, office pools and person-to-person bets at Super Bowl parties. It is the single biggest sports betting event annually — and there is no close second or third — which is the main reason it is the highest-rated TV show every year.

Currently, 33 states and the District of Columbia offer legal sports betting. Three more states are legal, but not operational. Seven states have active legislation and the remaining seven states have no legislation.

Five rules, which have helped me correctly predict 21 of the last 22 Super Bowls versus the spread and 19 of the last 22 Over/Unders, will help you wager correctly and win or save money on Super Bowl LVII:

Rule No. 1: Don’t sweat the spread

Only seven times has the winner of the Super Bowl failed to beat the spread, a record of 46-7-3. That means winning favorites have covered the number or underdogs have won outright at a combined rate of 86.8 percent. So ignore the point spread and wager on which team you think will win the game. One exception came last year when the Rams (-3.5) defeated the Bengals, 23-20. You have to go back to 2009 for the next most recent example, when the Steelers (-7) topped the Cardinals, 27-23.

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Rule No. 2: Secret about the total

Points wagering (the combined score) has become the second-most popular Super Bowl wager. When offensively potent teams meet, bet the Under, as they tend to play conservatively, feeling they can score whenever they want. Also, many offensive juggernauts only open up after the teams have felt each other out for a half.

Last year, the Super Bowl featured Matthew Stafford versus Joe Burrow and went under the 48.5 total (23-20). In 2021, Tom Brady versus Patrick Mahomes (two Hall-of-Fame-bound scoring machines) went under the 56-point total (31-9). A year earlier, the Chiefs and 49ers (who scored 88 and 72 combined points, respectively, in their two playoff games), went under the total of 53 (31-20). In 2019, the total opened at an all-time-high 59 points (closing at game time at 56) and the Patriots and Rams, the two top-scoring teams in the league, scored a combined 16 points.


The Buccaneers-Chiefs Super Bowl feature Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes figured to be high scoring, but it was the Under bet that won the day.
AP

Conversely, if two dominant defensive giants collide, bet the Over, because the offenses tend to open up. Coaches figure any scoring will help their defense and are less fearful of making mistakes. When these offenses open up, they are more prone to turnovers, which often leads to more scoring. In 2018, Philadelphia and New England, which had dominated their opponents defensively in the playoffs, combined for 74 points (41-33), easily beating the Over (49 points).

If one team is known for its offense and the other team for its defense, I’d recommend attacking your Super Bowl food and drink and passing on wagering on the total.

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Rule No. 3: Stop the props

Do not make any proposition bets. Sportsbooks will put up 400-500 of them. The public generally bets propositions to the Over (quarterback completions, player receiving and rushing yards, fumbles, field goals, etc) and loses doing this almost every year. One of the biggest sportsbooks in Las Vegas and another offshore each reported before the 2022 Super Bowl that they had lost money booking prop bets just twice in 26 years. That tells me it’s not prudent to bet props, and doing so can be hazardous to one’s wealth!

Rule No. 4: Start again at the half

Bookies post a new point spread for the second half. Always bet the team at halftime that you think will beat the original Super Bowl line, as the team that has beaten the opening point spread also has beaten the halftime spread in 26 of the last 29 Super Bowls.

Rule No. 5: Don’t bet teasers

There’s a good reason they are called teasers, as they might look good, but your chances of betting them and making money aren’t good. Also don’t bet parlays, as more than one-third of a bookmaker’s profits come from them. Two-team parlays pay 2.6/1 (true odds are 3/1); three-team parlays pay 5/1 (true odds are 7/1) and four-team parlays pay 10/1 (true odds are 15/1). Hello!

Danny Sheridan has been handicapping football games nationally for 35 years. He provided the sports odds for USA Today for 30 years, and appears regularly on national TV, radio and in newspapers.

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NFL picks, odds and betting offers

Our NFL betting writer brings you his best Ravens vs. Browns predictions and picks for their NFL Week 15 meeting, which is live Saturday at 4:30 p.m. on NFL Network.

Without a definite answer at starting quarterback, the Baltimore Ravens visit an AFC North rival for the second straight week when they meet the Cleveland Browns as part of Saturday’s NFL triple-header at 4:30 p.m. ET on NFL Network.

Browns vs. Ravens picks

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Browns vs. Ravens predictions and analysis

The Ravens (9-4) overcame quarterback health issues to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 16-14 last week to remain tied with Cincinnati for the AFC North lead. Tyler Huntley started in place of Lamar Jackson (knee) but took a jarring hit to the head and left the game due to concussion protocol. Rookie Anthony Brown finished the job. But Huntley was a full participant in practice Wednesday and is trending toward playing against the Browns (while Jackson is not).

Cleveland (5-8) will be desperate for a win to remain barely afloat in the AFC playoff race. The Browns had won consecutive games for the first time all season when they beat Tampa Bay and Houston, but that streak ended with a 23-10 loss to the Bengals, Joe Burrow’s first time beating Cleveland. Deshaun Watson improved slightly in his second game back from an 11-game suspension for sexual misconduct lawsuits. But will it be too little, too late for the Browns in the bigger picture?

Deshaun Watson of the Cleveland Browns
Getty Images

Ravens moneyline

It can be hard to trust the Ravens this season. Though 9-4, they’re only 5-7-1 against the spread. All four of their losses have come from blowing second-half leads against the Dolphins, Bills, Giants and Jaguars.

But we need to put those concerns aside and believe in the Ravens this week for several reasons, starting with the fact that this series has been historically lopsided — Baltimore has won 24 of the past 29 meetings, including five of the past six.

No matter if it’s Huntley or Brown at quarterback, the Ravens’ identity is a strong defense and reliance on the run game. They beat the Browns 23-20 earlier this season with 160 rushing yards and just 94 passing yards; Huntley and Brown only had to combine for 94 passing yards last week against Pittsburgh because the Ravens gained 215 yards on 42 carries.

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The Browns rank roughly in the bottom third of the league in rushing defense (128.1 ypg allowed) and have several linebackers injured, most recently Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who was placed on IR. On top of that, defense travels. The Ravens have yielded less than 10 points per game over their past four victories.

The line is the way it is most likely due to Jackson’s and Huntley’s injuries. Get the Ravens at this number while you can; they’re clearly the better team.

Browns vs. Ravens pick: Ravens money line @ +135 with Caesars Sportsbook

Under 37 total points

The Ravens have hit the over just four times in 13 games. It sure helps to have a defense that yields just 19.2 points per game (eighth in the NFL) and 81.2 yards per game (second).

The Browns’ run game struggled last week, gaining just 71 yards against the Bengals, and Baltimore has held the Browns to 84.3 rushing yards on average over their past three meetings.

The Ravens’ acquisition of linebacker Roquan Smith has truly bolstered the defense against both the run and the pass.

Roquan Smith of the Ravens
Getty Images

And while the Browns are 7-5-1 in the O/U category this year, the under has hit in each of their past three games. The transition to Watson at quarterback has come with growing pains.

Browns vs. Ravens pick: Under 37 points scored @ -110 with Caesars Sportsbook

Deshaun Watson to throw over 0.5 interceptions

Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett exited Sunday’s game early with a concussion, and Mitch Trubisky took the bulk of the snaps against the Ravens.

End result: three more interceptions for the Baltimore defense’s total. Smith and fellow linebacker Patrick Queen each grabbed one, along with safety Marcus Williams, who leads the team with four.

The Ravens are now tied for second in the league with 14 interceptions over 13 games. That’s helped them to a plus-9 turnover differential, also second-best in the NFL behind Philadelphia.

Watson has had plenty of rust to shake off after sitting out all of 2021 and more than half of this season. He’s thrown one interception in each of his first two games. Bet on the Ravens to make that three straight.

Browns vs. Ravens pick: Browns QB Deshaun Watson to throw over 0.5 interceptions @ -111 at Caesars Sportsbook

Ravens vs Browns odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Team Spread Money line Total Points 37
Ravens (+3) -120 +135 Over -110
Browns (-3) +100 -160 Under -110

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Seahawks vs. Buccaneers, Raiders vs. Colts

Action Network NFL analyst C Jackson Cowart is in his first season in The Post’s Bettor’s Guide. Here are his best bets for Week 10. 

Seattle Seahawks (+3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (in Munich, Germany)

We bet on the Seahawks last week, and we’re happy to go back to the well on one of the most underrated teams in the league.

Given what we expected coming into the year, it’s a bit baffling to see Seattle ranked fifth in team DVOA and ninth in net points per drive (0.28), but there’s no denying that the formula has worked in the first year sans Russell Wilson. Geno Smith and the Seahawks’ offense gets much of the credit, but this defense has been one of the NFL’s best in recent weeks and should be able to thwart Tom Brady and this limping Bucs unit.

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Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks
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LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-4.5) over Indianapolis Colts

Some spots are just too obvious to stay away. That’s the case here with the Raiders, and I’m honestly surprised this game hasn’t hit the key number of 7.

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Forget the coaching mess for a second: On the field alone, the Colts rank 31st in DVOA and have one of the worst offenses in football behind struggling sophomore passer Sam Ehlinger. Now consider that his play-caller this week was a quality control coach two years ago, and his current boss has zero coaching experience beyond high school football. This could be the ugliest result of the week.

Last week: 1-0-1. Falcons (P), Seahawks (W).

Season: 7-8-1.

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Thursday Night Football: Panthers vs. Falcons

Two age-old NFC South foes meet on Thursday Night Football, marking the second time these sides have met this season. Atlanta won round one, with just a field goal separating the two teams in what was a thrilling encounter.

However, in Week 9, the Falcons suffered a heartbreaking loss of their own to the Los Angeles Chargers, losing 20-17 on a late field goal. That dropped the Falcons to 4-5 on the season, but they’ll still have at least a share of first place after the week.

Atlanta got running back Cordarrelle Patterson back from injury, and he proved his worth with two touchdowns.

Many folks thought the Panthers could have gotten something from their game against the Bengals, especially with Cincy without WR Ja’Marr Chase. This was far from the case.

Carolina got blown out 41-21, and dropped to 2-7 on the season, and looks like they’ll be headed for a top-5 draft pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Quarterback PJ Walker was benched in favor of Baker Mayfield in the loss, so it will be interesting to see who lines up under center under the lights in Charlotte.

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Expert Week 6 NFL betting picks

Our NFL betting expert brings you his best Ravens vs. Giants predictions and picks for their NFL Week 6 showdown, which is live Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on CBS.

The Baltimore Ravens can thank Justin Tucker for another game-winning field goal in Week 5. This week they’ll look to tighten their grip on the AFC North lead with another win, this time against the surprising New York Giants (4-1), who are back from London with a victory over the Green Bay Packers in hand.

Giants vs. Ravens predictions

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Giants vs. Ravens picks and analysis

The Ravens (3-2) walked away with a 19-17 victory over the visiting Cincinnati Bengals last week thanks to Justin Tucker’s dead-center, 43-yard field goal as time expired. The win put them one game ahead of Cincinnati and Cleveland in their division. Now Lamar Jackson and company head to MetLife Stadium for the second time this season. The Ravens beat the Jets there 24-9 in the season opener and are 2-0 on the road this year.

Big Blue beat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week. The Giants haven’t had a start this strong since they opened the 2009 season 5-0, and between new coach Brian Daboll and the resurgence of Saquon Barkley, fans are believers.

Saquon Barkley
Getty Images

Giants +5.5

Call up the Guinness Book of World Records, people. We need to see if 5.5 points makes New York the largest 4-1 home underdog in NFL history.

Never mind — the Giants are, in fact, six-point underdogs at BetMGM and DraftKings as of Thursday morning. Vegas clearly favors Jackson and the Baltimore offense over Daniel Jones and the Giants, not to mention the Ravens’ defense has played solidly in the past few weeks.

But it’s still a pretty eye-opening surprise to see New York, fresh off a neutral-field victory over the Packers that legitimized them as a playoff contender in the eyes of many, be shown this disrespect.

The only other concern here is the Giants’ travel schedule. They’re back on the field this week after their trip to London — in years past, teams playing in Europe had the benefit of a bye week directly after the trip to recuperate. No doubt the Ravens have an easier week in terms of keeping their minds and bodies fresh.

Still, facing that spread, we’ll take the Giants to keep it close if not win outright. Daboll’s swagger and Barkley’s legs have helped them close out games with authority, while we haven’t forgotten Baltimore’s late-game meltdowns against Miami and Buffalo.

Our Pick: Giants to cover +5.5

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Lamar Jackson
Getty Images

Under 45 total points

When Giants-Packers surpassed 41.5 total points, it was the first time since Week 16 of last season that a Giants game hit the over. They’d had five unders and one push in the time since.

New York isn’t beating teams with dynamic offense. Last week’s 27 points marked the club’s highest-scoring output of the year. Barkley is good for 100 yards a game and either he, Jones or Gary Brightwell might score a rushing touchdown from the red zone, but that’s not going to run up the score on anyone.

Though Daboll came from a pass-happy attack with Josh Allen in Buffalo, he’s working with what he has in New York. The Giants have run 30 more times than they’ve passed, and Giants players have combined for only six receiving plays of 20 yards or more. All of this is a recipe for low-scoring affairs.

The Ravens have shown they can drop 37-38 points on an opponent, but in the past two weeks they’ve averaged 19.5. Jackson’s five interceptions are tied for fourth-most in the league and are liable to kill would-be scoring drives.

Our Pick: Under 45 points scored

Highest scoring quarter: Third quarter +460

This prop is a fun change-of-pace, as it asks you to bet on which quarter will see the most points scored between the teams. Any of the four options promise a decent-to-great payout if you’re right.

The Giants are slow starters on offense. They’ve averaged just 6.6 points in the first halves of games thus far. The third quarter has been their highest-scoring quarter this year – a combined 36 points, including 13 in their Week 1 comeback against Tennessee and 10 in Week 3 against the Cowboys.

The Ravens neither start nor finish games particularly strongly. Baltimore has scored just one fourth-quarter touchdown in five games and are averaging just 3 points per fourth quarter. The middle of the game is where they’re strongest, scoring 48 combined points in second quarters and 41 total points in third quarters.

In a game like this, featuring two teams who love to run the ball, expect there to be an early feeling-out period before they really start to strike blows against one another after halftime.

Our Pick: Third quarter to be the highest-scoring quarter +460

Giants vs. Ravens odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Team Spread Money line Total Points 45
Ravens (-5.5) -110 -267 Over -110
Giants (+5.5) -110 +215 Under -110

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Underdog status for Bill Belichick

Our NFL betting expert brings you his best Browns vs. Patriots predictions and picks for their NFL Week 6 showdown, which is live Sunday on CBS at 1 p.m. ET.

After losing three of their last four games, the Cleveland Browns desperately need a win to get back on track. But they’ll be facing an uphill battle this week when the New England Patriots come to town fresh off a 29-point triumph.

Patriots vs. Browns predictions

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Patriots vs. Browns picks and analysis

For Bill Belichick, Cleveland was once home. It’s where he got his first head coaching job way back in 1991, however, quite a bit has changed over the past 31 years.

He’s guided New England to glory, while the Browns have spent the majority of the past three decades in the cellar of their division. With a lethal backfield duo and some defensive star power, hope is slowly starting to trickle back into Cleveland, though, and a win on Sunday against the franchise’s former coach can only strengthen spirits.

Rhamondre Stevenson
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Patriots +2.5

If there’s one thing Belichick has learned in all his years of coaching, it’s how to limit the strongest facet of an opposing team’s offense.

The rushing attack is the most potent element of the Browns’ unit, so expect Belichick and the Patriots’ defense to make life as uncomfortable as possible for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. That’ll force Cleveland to put more responsibility in quarterback Jacoby Brissett’s hands, and it’s hard to imagine he’s up for that challenge.

New England is familiar with Brissett considering it drafted him back in 2019, and while he’s been serviceable, he hasn’t necessarily been the driving force in either of the Browns’ two wins this season.

Cleveland is also 2-6 against the spread in its last eight home games, so the Patriots should be in prime position to keep it close — or even win outright — come Sunday.

Our Pick: Patriots to cover +2.5 @ -115 with Caesars Sportsbook

Under 43.5 total points

When the Patriots hit the road, you can almost guarantee they double-check their luggage to make sure they’ve packed phone chargers, toothbrushes and maybe a crossword or two to pass the time. But they always seem to forget one thing.

Points.

The total has failed to go over in 11 of New England’s last 16 road games. When the Patriots venture out of Massachusetts to play a team that’s below .500, the under becomes even more appealing, as it’s gone 14-2 in New England’s last 16 games away from home against opponents with losing records.

Nick Chubb
Getty Images

Considering the Browns are 2-3, stick with the trends here. Even if the Patriots did remember to pack the points, there’s no way they made it through airport security with them in their carry-ons.

Our Pick: Under 43.5 total points @ -110 with Caesars Sportsbook

Betting on the NFL?

Amari Cooper anytime touchdown scorer +220

When Cleveland isn’t running the ball, chances are it’s looking to get the ball to Cooper through the air.

Cooper has received 43 of the team’s 155 targets this season (27.8 percent), including six in the red zone. Of those six looks, he’s caught three of them for touchdowns and is now set to face a New England defense that allows opponents to find the end zone 56.3 percent of the time they get inside the 20.

Assuming the Patriots make their primary focus containing Chubb and Hunt in the backfield, Cooper undoubtedly becomes the No. 1 option in the offense.

He’s been on the field for over 83 percent of the Browns’ plays this season, so get ready for him to carry an extended role on Sunday if Cleveland wants to have any chance of staying in the game.

Our Pick: Amari Cooper to score a touchdown at +220 with Caesars Sportsbook

Patriots vs. Browns odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Team Spread Moneyline Total Points 43.5
Patriots (+2.5) -115 +118 Over -110
Browns (-2.5) -105 -140 Under -110

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Picks, odds for every game

Just when it looked as if the Giants’ choices for starting quarterback Sunday against the Packers in London were down to Davis Webb and Prince Harry, Big Blue got some good news when Daniel Jones’ sprained left ankle showed improvement at practice Wednesday.

That development makes it a far more palatable option to take the Giants +8 points against Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers and his receivers are still not quite in sync, the short week won’t help them get there, and on the other side of the ball, the game appears to shape up similarly to the Packers’ matchup last week against the Patriots at Lambeau Field. Piloted by third-string QB Bailey Zappe, Bill Belichick’s team put on a good offensive showing win a 27-24 overtime loss.

The Packers knew the Patriots were going try to run the ball, and still New England pounded out 167 rushing yards. The presence of Jones should at least make Green Bay think twice about attacking Saquon Barkley (113 yards per game) with eight-man boxes, and I also have confidence Brian Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka will have some creative answers if the Packers pursue Barkley too aggressively.

In terms of a betting situation, the Giants are also back in their happy place (or, this one being in England, their jolly place) as they are 22-12-2 ATS in road and neutral-site games since the beginning of the 2018 season.

Giants vs. Packers pick: Giants +8.

Daniel Jones
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NEW YORK JETS (+3) over Miami Dolphins

A few weeks ago, ahead of the Bengals game, we detailed here that the Jets are winless after each of their rare victories in the short Robert Saleh era. Let’s not get into all of the gory details again other than to point out that the record in those spots is now 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS after the loss to Cincinnati.

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So what has changed in two weeks? Well for one thing, the Jets’ starting quarterback, Zach Wilson, is back, while the opposition will be using its backup, Teddy Bridgewater. And the defense is finally starting to take shape, with Quinnen Williams looking like a beast and the secondary coming off four interceptions in Pittsburgh.

Miami WR Jaylen Waddle didn’t practice Wednesday and was limited Thursday. His absence, or at least diminished status, would enable the Jets to use their best resources on Tyreek Hill while Williams, Carl Lawson and Jermaine Johnson go after Bridgewater.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+14) over BUFFALO BILLS

Don’t know if this is a classic sandwich game for Buffalo, but for some reason I’m craving a beef on weck. Bills had tough battles with the Dolphins and Ravens, and next week go to Arrowhead to face the Chiefs. Will take the big head start with Kenny Pickett, who can do more with the Steelers’ offense than Mitch Trubisky did.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-9.5) over Atlanta Falcons

It’s the third road game in the past four weeks for Atlanta, but this is more just a feeling that the Bucs, injuries and all, are going to be geared up for a no-doubter coming off back-to-back losses to the Packers and Chiefs.

Tennessee Titans (-1.5) over WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Tennessee picked up a big victory last week in Indianapolis, so the edge in need belongs to Washington after three losses in a row. Injuries to Treylon Burks (Titans) and Jahan Dotson (Commanders) could be a wash, but I just feel as if I’m getting the better team at a very cheap price.

Derrick Henry
AP

CLEVELAND BROWNS (+2.5) over Los Angeles Chargers

This is a good time to salute Paul Schwartz for his incredible 14-1-1 ATS master class in last week’s Bettor’s Guide. His one loss was on Cleveland, and Paul is going the other way with L.A. here. But I figure Nick Chubb and the returning Myles Garrett will makes this a tough go for the Chargers.

Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Saints have a one-point win followed by three losses, a bunch of injuries, and the jet lag from last week’s trip to London to consider. Though desperation could help them snag a “W,” there’s a long way to go from there to distancing Geno Smith and the Seahawks by six or more.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3.5) over Detroit Lions

Did you think you’d ever see this tiny spread for a Patriots-Lions game in Foxborough? Me neither. I’m rolling with it because, after scoring 24 points with Zappe and a limited offense in Green Bay, New England should be able to do even more against this Lions D. Also a revenge game for Matt Patricia, fired two years ago by Detroit.

Houston Texans (+7) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

I don’t usually focus on series results, but the Texans have won eight in a row and 19 of the past 23 against the Jaguars. Jacksonville seemingly has a bit of an upper hand now, but I’m not sure I can go from these results to Jags -7 so directly.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-7.5) over Chicago Bears

Little bit worried about laying seven plus the hook because -6.5 was available earlier. Chicago’s offense was a little less prehistoric last week as Justin Fields threw for 174 yards, but the Bears still lost by eight to the Giants. Thinking Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson get this to the neighborhood of the Vikings’ 23-7 win over the Packers in Week 1.

Kirk Cousins
USA TODAY Sports

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

Long trip for the 49ers off a big Monday night rivalry win. Normally, that’s a recipe for a letdown. But this defense is insanely good, and Kyle Shanahan will find a way to generate more than the 10 points the 49ers put up in each of two road losses in September.

Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) over LOS ANGELES RAMS

Losses by 21 to the Bills and 15 to the 49ers convince me the Rams have taken a step or two down from the mountaintop. With a strong, opportunistic defense and serviceable QB Cooper Rush, the Cowboys could win this one outright.

Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS

Even though the last undefeated team in any given season is always living on borrowed time, the Eagles are worthy of support after their savage comeback from 14-0 down versus the Jaguars.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

It has been a frustrating start for John Harbaugh and the Ravens, who have flushed big home leads to the Dolphins and Bills. The Bengals come in off extra rest after distancing Miami, and will have confidence off of their 41-17 and 41-21 wins over Baltimore last season.

Betting on the NFL?

Monday

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7) over Las Vegas Raiders

The Silver and Black are coming off their first win, and many will remember their 40-32 victory at Arrowhead in 2020. But in the surrounding seasons, their visits produced beat-downs of 48-9, 40-9 and 35-3.

Best bets

Steelers, Titans, Cowboys.

Lock of the week

Steelers (Locks 3-1 in 2022.)

Last week

8-7-1 overall, 2-1 Best Bets.

Thursday

Broncos (L).

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