Chipmakers Hint at Ease of Chip Supply Glut but Demand Recovery Still Slow

From Intel to Samsung, global chipmakers are celebrating the beginning of the end of a semiconductor supply glut, but the outlook for demand from customers outside the artificial intelligence (AI) industry remains gloomy.

All the major markets for chips — smartphones, PCs and data centres — have shrunk this year, as both corporate customers and consumers scale back spending amid a weak global economy, high inflation and rising interest rates.

This has created an unprecedented oversupply of commodity chips, causing a record combined KRW 15.2 trillion (nearly Rs. 98,650 crore) first-half operating loss for the world’s two largest memory chipmakers, Samsung and SK Hynix

This glut, however, has started to ease largely due to production cuts and as a decline in PC shipments eased to 11 percent in the June quarter compared to a 30 percent slump in each of the previous two quarters, data from tech analysts Canalys showed.

The smartphone market is also improving, with cellphone shipments falling 8 percent in the June quarter, versus 14 percent in the first quarter, according to research firm Counterpoint.

“Demand is recovering very gradually,” Woohyun Kim, chief financial officer at SK Hynix, said on an earnings call this week.

“The recent improvement in PC shipments has been mainly led by promotions and low-end models, meaning it provided limited impact on chip demand recovery,” he said, adding that shipment forecasts for PCs and smartphones this year have been downgraded from earlier predictions.

While demand for chips to support generative AI has rapidly increased since OpenAI‘s ChatGPT was launched late last year, the sector still accounts for a small fraction of overall chip demand and is crimping corporate spending on servers, as some companies prioritize investment in AI.

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said on Thursday an inventory glut in server central processing units (CPUs) will persist until the second half of the year and that data centre chip sales will decline modestly in the third quarter before recovering in the fourth quarter. Intel shares rose 6.4 percent Friday after stronger than expected results.

A sluggish recovery in China, the world’s biggest chip buyer, is also dampening the overall outlook.

Both Samsung and SK Hynix said China’s reopening failed to live up to expectations that it would revive the smartphone market, and that they were extending production cuts of NAND memory chips, widely used in smartphones to store digital data.

Analog chipmaker Texas Instruments, which has heavy exposure to China, forecast third-quarter revenue and profit below Wall Street targets on Tuesday, bogged down by a sluggish recovery in end-market demand that has forced clients to cancel orders. Shares were up 1.5 percent Friday.

“China was roughly half of sales at the end of fiscal 2022, so China has the largest impact on TI’s business,” said Logan Purk, analyst at investment firm Edward Jones. 

AI winners

Manufacturers of the equipment used to make chips such as KLA Corp and Lam Research are early winners of the AI boom. Both companies forecast quarterly revenue above Wall Street estimates this week. Shares were up 4.9 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively, on Friday.

“Advanced AI servers have significantly higher leading-edge logic, memory and storage content versus traditional servers, and every incremental 1 percent penetration of AI servers and data centres is expected to drive $1 billion (nearly Rs. 8,200 crore) to $1.5 billion (nearly Rs. 12, 330 crore) of additional (chip equipment) investment,” Lam CEO Tim Archer said on a conference call with analysts.

Chipmakers are also increasing production of the high-end chips used to support AI related chips.

SK Hynix said demand for AI server memory had more than doubled in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. Its DRAM chips, which hold information from applications while the system is in use, sold for a higher price in the second quarter versus the first, on average.

The company leads the market in high bandwidth memory (HBM) DRAM used in generative AI. It had a 50 percent market share in HBM as of 2022, followed by Samsung’s 40 percent and Micron’s 10 percent, according to TrendForce.

© Thomson Reuters 2023


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AI Will Define Trend for Global Computing Industry, Says AMD Chief

AI will be the “defining mega-trend” for the global computing industry, the head of chip giant AMD said Thursday in Taiwan, where the majority of the world’s semiconductors powering the technology is produced. 

California-based Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is one of the world’s largest chip suppliers — rivalling giants Intel and Nvidia — and their processors are used in everything from gaming consoles and laptops to massive servers. 

In the past year, tech companies have shifted resources to developing chips that have the processing power for generative AI — which churns out complex content in seconds — after seeing the popularity of products such as ChatGPT

“The innovation opportunities ahead of us are truly enormous and the computing industry is changing very fast,” said AMD’s CEO Lisa Su, in Taiwan to receive an honorary doctorate from a university in the city of Hsinchu. 

“AI is really the defining megatrend for the next 10 years,” she said, adding that generative AI has reshaped how industry players think about tech’s possibilities. 

“Every product, every service, every business in the world will be impacted by AI, and the technology is actually evolving faster than anything than I’ve ever seen before,” Su said in her speech to the university. 

As a chip design foundry, AMD outsources the production of their microchip designs to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which is headquartered in Hsinchu. 

The Taiwanese chipmaking giant controls half the world’s output of the silicon wafers, which are used to power everything from drip coffee machines to cars and missiles.

Unlike the AMD chief, TSMC’s chairman Mark Liu cautioned investors on pinning their expectations of a boom in chips due to generative AI. 

“The short-term frenzy about AI demand definitely cannot be extrapolated for the long term,” Liu told shareholders in a conference call Thursday — held around the same time as the university ceremony Su attended. 

“Neither can we predict for the near future, meaning next year, how the sudden demand will continue or flatten out.”

TSMC reported a 23 percent drop in its second quarter net income to about $5.85 billion (nearly Rs. 47,950 crore).

“Our second quarter business was impacted by the overall global economic conditions, which dampened the end market demand, and led to customers’ ongoing inventory adjustment,” said Wendell Huang, TSMC’s VP and chief financial officer.

The company also announced that its long-awaited Arizona plant — the first in the United States — has met delays, due to “an insufficient amount of skilled workers”, and the start of production will be pushed to 2025, Liu said.


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Nvidia, AMD, Other US Chipmakers Face Fall in Shares as US Plans Curbs on Export to China

Shares of US chipmakers fell on Wednesday following a report that the Biden administration was planning new curbs on export of computing chips for artificial intelligence to China as early as July.

Companies such as Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and Intel, which rely on the world’s second largest economy for at least a fifth of their revenue, fell between 0.8 percent and 1.8 percent, caught in the US-China crossfire.

The Philadelphia chip index dropped 0.9 percent.

Last year, US officials had ordered Nvidia to stop exporting its top two AI chips to China to limit the country’s technological capability.

Months later, Nvidia launched a new advanced chip called A800 in China to meet export control rules.

The new restrictions being considered by the Commerce Department would also include a ban on the sale of Nvidia’s A800 chip without a special US export license, the Wall Street Journal report said.

Curbs on sales of datacenter graphics processing units to China would impact future financial results, Nvidia’s finance chief Colette Kress said on Wednesday. However, the company does not expect the additional restrictions to have an immediate material impact on its results.

“With an update on export controls now expected, investors will assess just how limiting the new rules will be for chip makers’ sales,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“A handful of tech companies pack a huge punch on Wall Street due to their sheer size, so any wobble in confidence reverberates on indices.”

Rising expectations over the advancements in AI have helped Wall Street climb this year, with Nvidia at the pole position on the S&P 500 index, gaining 187 percent so far this year.

But the sharp rise in shares has also sparked doubts over lofty valuations.

Nvidia is trading at 47 times its expected 12-months earnings, while AMD is at a 31.2 multiple and Intel at 31.8, way above the S&P 500’s multiple at 19, according to Refinitiv data.

The Philadelphia chip index has surged more than 44 percent so far this year, far ahead of the benchmark index’s 14 percent rise.

Across the Atlantic, Nordic Semiconductor, Dutch chipmaker ASML, Milan-listed STMicroelectronics, however, closed between 2.3 percent and 6.4 percent higher.

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ISMC $3-Billion India Semiconductor Plant Plans Stall as Intel Acquires Tech Partner Tower

A planned $3 billion (roughly Rs. 24,700 crore) semiconductor facility in India by chip consortium ISMC that counted Israeli chipmaker Tower as a tech partner has been stalled due to the company’s ongoing takeover by Intel, three sources said, dashing India’s chip making plans.

A second mega $19.5 billion (roughly Rs. 1,60,800 crore) plan to build chips locally by a joint venture between India’s Vedanta and Taiwan’s Foxconn is also proceeding slowly as their talks to rope in European chipmaker STMicroelectronics as a partner are deadlocked, a fourth source with direct knowledge said.

The challenges faced by the companies deal a major setback to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has made chipmaking a top priority as he wants to “usher in a new era in electronics manufacturing” by luring global companies.

India, which expects its semiconductor market to be worth $63 billion (roughly Rs. 5,19,600 crore) by 2026, last year received three applications to set up plants under a $10 billion (roughly Rs. 82,500 crore) incentive scheme. They were from the Vedanta-Foxconn JV; a global consortium ISMC which counts Tower Semiconductor as a tech partner; and from Singapore-based IGSS Ventures.

The Vedanta JV plant is to come up in Modi’s home state of Gujarat, while ISMC and IGSS each committed $3 billion (roughly Rs. 24,700 crore) for plants in two separate southern states.

Three sources with direct knowledge of the strategy said ISMC’s $3 billion (roughly Rs. 24,700 crore) chipmaking facility plans are currently on hold as Tower could not proceed to sign binding agreements as things remain under review after Intel acquired it for $5.4 billion (roughly Rs. 44,500 crore) last year. The deal is pending regulatory approvals.

Talking about India’s semiconductor ambitions, India’s deputy IT minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar told Reuters in a May 19 interview ISMC “could not proceed” due to Intel acquiring Tower, and IGSS “wanted to re-submit (the application)” for incentives. The “two of them had to drop out,” he said, without elaborating.

Tower is likely to reevaluate taking part in the venture based on how its deal talks with Intel pan out, two of the sources said.

ISMC consortium partners Next Orbit Ventures did not respond to a request for comment and Tower declined to comment. Intel also declined comment.

Singapore-based IGSS did not respond, and neither did India’s federal IT ministry.

Setback for Vedanta

Most of the world’s chip output is limited to a few countries like Taiwan, and India is a late entrant. Amid much fanfare, in September, the Vedanta-Foxconn JV announced its chipmaking plans in Gujarat. Modi called the $19.5 billion (roughly Rs. 1,60,800 crore) plan “an important step” in boosting India’s chipmaking ambitions.

But things haven’t gone smoothly as the JV tries to hunt for a tech partner. The fourth source said Vedanta-Foxconn had got on board STMicroelectronics for licensing technology, but India’s government had conveyed it wants STMicro to have “more skin in the game” – like a stake in the partnership.

STMicro is not keen on that and the talks remain in limbo, the source added. “From STM’s perspective, that proposal doesn’t make sense because they want India market to first be more mature,” said the person.

Deputy IT minister Chandrasekhar told Reuters during the May 19 interview the Vedanta-Foxconn JV was “struggling currently to tie up with a technology partner.”

STMicro declined to comment.

In a statement, Vedanta-Foxconn JV CEO, David Reed, said they have an agreement with a technology partner to transfer technology with licenses, but declined to comment further.

In a move seen to revive investor interest, India’s IT ministry on Wednesday said the country will start re-inviting applications for chipmaking incentives. This time the companies can apply until December next year, as opposed to the initial phase where there was only a 45 day window.

“It is expected that some of the current applicants will reapply and new fresh investors will also apply,” minister Chandrasekhar said on Twitter.

© Thomson Reuters 2023


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Arm to Reportedly Start Manufacturing Its Own Semiconductor Chips for Smartphones, Laptops, More

British chipmaker Arm is building its own semiconductor to showcase the capabilities of its products, as it seeks to attract new customers and fuel growth following its Initial Public Offering (IPO) later this year, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.

Arm will team up with manufacturing partners to develop the new semiconductor, FT said, citing people briefed on the move, adding that the company has built a new “solutions engineering” team that will lead the development of these prototype chips for mobile devices, laptops, and other electronics.

The SoftBank Group-backed company’s newest chip, on which it started work in the past six months, is “more advanced” than ever before, FT said, citing industry executives.

The chip designer has no plans to sell or license the product and is only working on a prototype, FT said.

Arm is a major supplier of intellectual property to many chip companies, especially in mobile phones and has partnerships with major chip contract manufacturers.

Earlier this month, Intel said it will work with Arm to ensure that mobile phone chips and other products that use Arm’s technology can be made in Intel’s factories.

Arm did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. 

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Ex-Intel Chief Architect Explores Data Center Deals for AI Startup in India

Intel’s former chief architect Raja Koduri is in talks with Hiranandani-backed data center operator Yotta for a deal for his generative artificial intelligence startup, which he said will have a big presence in India.

His yet-to-be-named firm would either partner or acquire Yotta, which has data centers in the cities of Mumbai and Noida, said Koduri, whose aim is to challenge Nvidia‘s grip on the digital movie and video game markets.

The company is likely to be launched by the end of the year and will provide AI tools to creators including game designers and film industry workers, the Indian-American executive said in an interview to Reuters.

“These days if you breath you’re competing with Nvidia because they have entered every space, everything, so you have no option but to compete against,” he said on the sidelines of a conference in Bengaluru, dubbed India’s Silicon Valley for its tech firms and startups, on Wednesday.

Koduri, who has worked on nearly two dozen generations of computer graphics chip, plans to build local data centers to ease the access to massive computing power needed for generative AI tools. 

Generative AI refers to technology such as ChatGPT that can use prompts to whip up haikus, essays and images.

The data center plan, however, will face challenges from unstable power, shortage of skilled labor and the lack of clear policy from state and central governments.

The southern state of Karnataka and Telangana have been “very supportive”, he said, adding that subsidies on electricity will be crucial as data centers are power guzzlers.

Koduri did not disclose how many people his firm would employ, but said “a ton” would be hired from the southern cities of Bengaluru and Hyderabad.

He is also joining the board of AI chip startup Tenstorrent, led by veteran chip architect Jim Keller, who led the design of Tesla’s self-driving chip in 2016.

Tenstorrent uses open-source technology RISC-V to build its chips.

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Apple, Google Can Challenge US Patent-Review System, Court Rules

Apple, Google, Cisco Systems and others can sue the US Patent and Trademark Office to challenge a rule that reduced the number of patent-validity proceedings at a USPTO tribunal, a US appeals court said Monday.

The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit reversed a California federal court’s decision to dismiss the companies’ lawsuit and said the agency may have failed to go through a required public notice-and-comment rulemaking process.

The PTO declined to comment on the ruling.

Google spokesperson José Castañeda said the company appreciates the decision and looks forward to making its case at the lower court. A Cisco spokesperson said the ruling reinforces that the PTO’s patent review proceedings are “an important vehicle to preserve a balanced patent system, protect innovation, and assure patent quality in the United States.”

Representatives for the other plaintiffs did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The PTO’s Patent Trial and Appeal Board is popular with big tech companies that are often targeted with patent lawsuits and that use the board’s “inter partes review” process to contest patents they are accused of infringing. An internal rule that gave the agency’s judges greater discretion to deny inter partes review petitions “dramatically reduced access” to the process, the companies told the appeals court.

Apple, Google, Cisco, Intel and Edwards Lifesciences sued the PTO in the California federal court in 2020 over the rule. They argued it undermined the role inter partes review plays in “protecting a strong patent system” and violated federal law.

Companies including Tesla, Honda, Comcast and Dell filed briefs at the Federal Circuit in support of the plaintiffs.

The California court dismissed the case in 2021, citing US Supreme Court rulings that Patent Trial and Appeal Board decisions on whether to review inter partes review petitions cannot be appealed.

The Federal Circuit also rejected the companies’ arguments that the rule was arbitrary and violated US patent law. But the three-judge panel said the PTO may have been required to hold a period of public notice and comment before making the rule, and that it could be challenged based on that argument.

The case is Apple v. Vidal, US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, No. 22-1249.

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Apple to Use Custom Bluetooth and Wi-Fi Chip in 2025, Plans to Replace Broadcom: Report

Apple plans to replace a Broadcom chip from its devices with an in-house design in 2025, Bloomberg News reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The iPhone maker has been working to limit its reliance on other chipmakers, having moved to its own line of chips for recent models of its Mac computers, replacing those from Intel.

Apple plans to replace Broadcom’s Wi-Fi and Bluetooth chip, according to the Bloomberg News report, which added that Apple is the US chipmaker’s largest customer.

The Cupertino, California-based company accounts for about 20 percent of Broadcom’s revenue.

Apple’s decision is likely to hit Broadcom revenue by about $1 billion (roughly Rs. 8,221 crore) to $1.5 billion (roughly Rs. 12,336 crore), said Stacy Rasgon, an analyst with financial services firm AB Bernstein.

He, however, added that Broadcom’s radio frequency, or RF, chips were complex to design and manufacture and were unlikely to be replaced in the short term.

Shares of Broadcom ended 2 percent lower.

Apple and Broadcom did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comments.

Apple is also looking to swap out Qualcomm’s cellular modem chips with its own by the end of 2024 or early 2025, according to the report.

Qualcomm has said it believes Apple will phase out its chips. Apple uses Qualcomm’s X65 for 5G modem in its iPhone 14 line and is expected to deploy a newer version of the same chip in the iPhone 15 models likely to be released later this year, according to Jefferies’ analyst William Yang.

A Qualcomm spokesperson pointed to the company’s November statement where it said it expects “minimal contribution from Apple product revenue in fiscal ’25.”

© Thomson Reuters 2023


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Intel Announces 13th Gen Core CPUs for Laptops, Mainstream Desktops; New Entry-Level N Series CPUs

As laptop and PC manufacturers are expected to show off new models at CES 2023, Intel has unveiled a whole raft of processors that will power many of them. With dozens of new 13th Gen CPUs across segments for laptops and desktops as well as an all-new entry-level lineup called N-series, Intel is claiming performance leadership, longer battery life, and superior experiences. The new flagship Core i9-13980HX is the first laptop CPU with 24 cores and is claimed to be the world’s fastest mobile CPU. Intel has also refreshed its Evo platform framework, which improves targets for battery life and adds Intel Unison software for integration with Android and iOS devices.

In total, there are 32 new mobile CPUs across the HX, H, P and U series which address different segments, from high-end gaming to thin-and-light laptops. Over 300 new laptops featuring these CPUs are expected to be announced this year by companies including Dell, HP, Acer, Lenovo, Asus, Razer, MSI, and Samsung.

Joining the ‘Raptor Lake’ 13th Gen family, the Core i9-13980HX features eight performance cores and 16 efficiency cores. It has a peak speed of 5.6GHz, a base TDP of 55W, and support for up to 128GB of DDR5-5600 RAM as well as PCIe 5.0 connectivity. There are nine HX CPUs in all, across the Core i9, Core i7 and Core i5 tiers. Intel says its OEM partners will introduce 60 laptops based on 13th Gen HX-series CPUs representing a significant uptake over the previous gen. The 45W H-series has slightly lower specifications and is aimed at content creators and gamers who don’t need ultra-portable laptops. There are 11 new models in this category.

Meanwhile, those looking for mainstream laptops will have options based on new 28W P-series and 15W U-series CPUs with up to 14 cores (six P-cores and eight E-cores) plus integrated Iris X graphics. Intel also touts integrated Gigabit Wi-Fi and Thunderbolt across segments. Specific CPU models will also feature integrated Intel Movidius vision processing hardware, for accelerating AI workloads.

On the desktop front, Intel has expanded the 13th Gen family to include mainstream models without overclocking support. These models have 35W and 65W target TDPs and will be compatible with 700-series as well as previous-gen 600-series motherboards. These should be available in retail box packaging as well as in pre-built OEM PCs. There are three new 8+16-core Core i9 models, three new 8+8-core Core i7 models, and seven new Core i5 models with either 6+8 or 6+4-core configurations. Three Core i3 models with only four P-cores round out the lineup. 

The new Intel N-series branding replaces the previous Celeron and Pentium names that Intel had previously used for entry-level processors. Aimed at desktops and laptops running Windows as well as Chrome OS, these CPUs will target the education and value-conscious markets. They have up to eight of the same efficiency cores as the 12th and 13th-gen CPU lineups, based on the ‘Gracemont’ architecture. Intel has also repurposed its Core i3 product tier to now include N-series models. Intel promises up to 10 hours of HD video playback, 4K HDR video output, HEVC and VP9 media encode/decode as well as AV1 decode support, and modern platform-level connectivity including Gigabit Wi-Fi.

The Core i3-N300 and Core i3-N305 both feature eight single-threaded Gracemont cores, 6MB of L3 cache, and 3.8GHz peak clock speeds. They have 7W and 15W TDP targets respectively. The new Intel N100 and N200 both have four cores and 6W TDP ratings, with slightly different integrated graphics capabilities and clock speeds. They will appear this year in devices from Acer, Dell, HP, Lenovo, and Asus.

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Intel’s Latest Deepfake Detector FakeCatcher to Analyse Subtle Blood Flow in Videos: Details

FakeCatcher, a real-time detector of deepfakes, has been introduced by Intel. The company has claimed that the FakeCatcher produces an accuracy of 96 percent. The deepfake detector is expected to work by analysing the subtle blood flow in video pixels. It is designed using Intel hardware and software. FakeCatcher runs on a server while the interfacing is done through a Web-based platform. Ilke Demir, a senior staff research scientist in Intel Labs, along with Umur Ciftci from the State University of New York at Binghamton worked together to develop the detector.

Intel has introduced a real-time deepfake detector and named it FakeCatcher. As mentioned earlier, the FakeCatcher is expected to detect fakes by analysing the subtle blood flow in video pixels. This will make it different from other deep learning-based deepfake detectors which look at raw data to try to find signs of inauthenticity and identify what is wrong with a video.

“When our hearts pump blood, our veins change colour. These blood flow signals are collected from all over the face and algorithms translate these signals into spatiotemporal maps. Then, using deep learning, we can instantly detect whether a video is real or fake”, the company explains the functioning of FakeCatcher in its blog post.

The deepfake detector was designed by Demir and Ciftci. Elaborating on the issue of deepfakes, Demir said, “Deepfake videos are everywhere now. You have probably already seen them; videos of celebrities doing or saying things they never actually did.”

FakeCatcher is a product of Intel’s Responsible AI work. Intel claims that the detector can catch fake videos with a 96 percent accuracy rate.

Deepfake has been a growing threat since the last few years. A study conducted by Forrester Research in 2020 had said that costs due to deepfake scams would exceed $250 million (roughly Rs. 2,040 crore) in that year.


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