Opinion by Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana (bangkok, thailand)
Inter Press Service
BANGKOK, Thailand, Oct 14 (IPS) – Ten years ago, the Asia-Pacific region came together and designed the world’s first set of disability-specific development goals: the Incheon Strategy to “Make the Right Real” for Persons with Disabilities. This week, we meet again to assess how the governments have delivered on their commitments, to secure those gains and develop the innovative solutions needed to achieve fully inclusive societies.
Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana
Ministers, government officials, persons with disabilities, civil society and private sector allies from across Asia and the Pacific will gather from 19 to 21 October in Jakarta to mark the birth of a new era for 700 million persons with disabilities and proclaim a fourth Asian and Pacific Decade of Persons with Disabilities.
Our region is unique, having already declared three decades to protect and uphold the rights of persons with disabilities; 44 Asian and Pacific governments have ratified the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities; and we celebrate achievements in the development of disability laws, policies, strategies and programmes.
Today, we have more parliamentarians and policymakers with disabilities. Their everyday business is national decision-making. They also monitor policy implementation. We find them active across the Asia-Pacific region: Australia, Bangladesh, China, Japan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, the Marshall Islands, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Türkiye. They have promoted inclusive public procurement to support disability-inclusive businesses and accessible facilities, advanced sign language interpretation in media programmes and parliamentary sessions, focused policy attention on overlooked groups, and directed numerous policy initiatives towards inclusion.
Less visible but no less important are local-level elected politicians with disabilities in India, Japan and the Republic of Korea. Indonesia witnessed 42 candidates with disabilities standing in the last election. Grassroot disability organizations have emerged as rapid responders to emerging issues such as COVID-19 and other crises. Organizations of and for persons with disabilities in Bangladesh have distinguished themselves in disability-inclusive COVID-19 responses, and created programmes to support persons with psychosocial disabilities and autism.
The past decade saw the emergence of private sector leadership in disability-inclusive business. Wipro, headquartered in India, pioneers disability inclusion in its multinational growth strategy. This is a pillar of Wipro’s diversity and inclusion initiatives. Employees with disabilities are at the core of designing and delivering Wipro digital services.
Yet, there is always more unfinished business to address.
Even though we applaud the increasing participation of persons with disabilities in policymaking, there are still only eight persons with disabilities for every 1,000 parliamentarians in the region.
On the right to work, 3 in 4 persons with disabilities are not employed, while 7 in 10 persons with disabilities do not enjoy any form of social protection.
This sobering picture points to the need for disability-specific and disability-inclusive policies and their sustained implementation in partnership with women and men with disabilities.
One of the first steps to inclusion is recognizing the rights of persons with disabilities. This model focuses on the person and their dignity, aspirations, individuality and value as a human being. As such, government offices, banks and public transportation and spaces must be made accessible for persons with diverse disabilities. To this end, governments in the region have conducted accessibility audits of government buildings and public transportation stations. Partnerships with the private sector have led to reasonable accommodations at work, promoting employment in a variety of sectors.
Despite the thrust of the Incheon Strategy on data collection and analysis, persons with disabilities still are often left out of official data because the questions that allow for disaggregation are excluded from surveys and accommodations are not made to ensure their participation. This reflects a continued lack of policy priority and budgetary allocations. To create evidence-based policies, we need reliable and comparable data disaggregated by disability status, sex and geographic location.
There is hope in the technology leap to 5G in the Asia-Pacific region. The implications for the empowerment of persons are limitless: from digital access, e-health care and assistive devices at affordable prices to remote learning and working, and exercising the right to vote. This is a critical moment to ensure disability-inclusive digitalization.
We live in a world of volatile change. A disability-inclusive approach to shape this world would benefit everyone, particularly in a rapidly ageing Asia-Pacific region where everyone’s contributions will matter. As we stand on the precipice of a fourth Asian and Pacific Decade of Persons with Disabilities it remains our duty to insist on a paradigm shift to celebrate diversity and disability inclusion. When we dismantle barriers and persons with disabilities surge ahead, everyone benefits.
Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana is an Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)
Climate change, among other crises, has impacted on food security. Changing rainfall patterns have affected a rural community from Kondh Adivasis, Odisha. Credit: Credit: Aniket Gawade / Climate Visuals Countdown
by Naureen Hossain (new york)
Inter Press Service
World Food Day is celebrated on October 16, 2022, with the theme Leave NO ONE behind. During this week, IPS will publish features that showcase better production, better nutrition, a better environment, and a better life.
New York, Oct 14 (IPS) – In this year alone, the global impact of compounding crises demonstrates, more than ever, why food scarcity must be addressed internationally and how there must be a shift in the food and agricultural systems.
October 16 is World Food Day, and this year it seems crucial to take stock of the causes and consequences of global food insecurity. Food insecurity has already been of greater concern in recent years due to the global COVID-19 pandemic disrupting our interconnected governance, trade, welfare, and humanitarian aid systems. This year has seen a continuation of those disruptions exacerbated by the ongoing pandemic and increasing challenges brought on by climate and environment-induced disasters, conflict, and rising prices.
The impact could not be more obvious. Findings from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) show that over 40% of the world population – or 3.1 billion people – cannot afford a healthy diet and that 828 million people are hungry. Rising food prices across crops in meats, cereals, and oils have disrupted the Food Price Index, which has been declining for six months.
The increase in food insecurity and its impact on global hunger has been observed worldwide. But between certain regions, there are clear disparities. Africa has been bearing the greater burden of food insecurity. A new report from the FAO reveals that in 2021, 20.2 percent, or one-fifth of the total population, went hungry. The next highest rate is Asia, with 9.1 percent. A disparity that wide should be more than enough to raise the alarm.
This food insecurity has also resulted in micronutrient deficiencies, such as zinc, iron, vitamin A, vitamin B, folate, and vitamin D. While at first unnoticeable; these deficiencies can lead to long-term losses in health and cognitive development. This would be fatal, especially to young children still developing and still needing proper nutrition.
Researchers from the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition (GAIN) conducted an analysis of the global prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies in preschool-aged children and non-pregnant women of reproductive age. Its findings suggested that over half of the preschoolers and two-thirds of the women in the study reported a deficiency in either iron, zinc, or folate. Regionally, the majority of the children and women lived in east Asia and the Pacific, south Asia, or sub-Saharan Africa. While the report acknowledged its limitations, and in how rarely the rate of deficiency is quantified and the absence of a global standard rate at the time of the study, as GAIN Executive Director Dr Lawrence Haddad has noted, one might observe the troubling implications for a wider demographic.
“Once we factor in males and other age groups, such as schoolchildren and the elderly, these numbers imply that our current global suggestion that two billion people suffer from hidden hunger is a gross underestimation,” he said.
In the context of Africa and the Sahel region, local governments’ capacity to respond to the food crisis have been limited or difficult to implement in the face of conflict within the region and in neighboring countries. Even international intervention from groups like FAO and World Food Programme (WFP) have had to work with limited resources and funding. In February, it was reported that within the last three years in the Sahel, the number of people dealing with starvation increased dramatically and dangerously, from 3.6 to 10.5 million.
Forced displacement caused by conflict in the region also impacts food security, as more than 5 million people live in forced displacement from Burkina Faso to the Lake Chad Basin area.
But what is perhaps more pressing, and more devastating, is the impact of climate change or environment-induced disasters on food security. The Sahel region in particular is susceptible to extreme weather conditions such as heavy rains and floods, and the Horn of Africa is suffering from a historic drought this year. Looking at other regions, the recent floods that devastated Pakistan destroyed over $70 billion USD worth in rice crops. This has also led to a rise in rice prices in the international market from other major rice exporters such as India, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Meanwhile, sub-Saharan Africa is heavily dependent on rice imports. It is an example of how connected the world is, and how we are dependent on each other to help meet that most basic and essential need: food.
With all these crises piling onto one another, it is easy to feel overwhelmed. But it also makes the theme of World Food Day even more pertinent. It is why this year’s theme feels more like a call to action: leave no one behind. These challenges will persist and only further overwhelm the global community unless we are united in our efforts to mitigate food insecurity. We are undeniably and inextricably dependent on each other to meet our needs for food, health, and security. “Leave no one behind” is a simplified reminder and approach, to a problem with complex parts and overlapping problems.
This call to action will only ring true when greater systematic changes are implemented in the food systems, and when this is revisited frequently rather than left for the next big natural disaster.
Lourdes Barreto squats in her greenhouse garden in the village of Huasao in the municipality of Oropesa, in the Andes highlands of the southern Peruvian department of Cuzco, proudly pointing to her purple lettuce, grown with natural fertilizers and agroecological techniques. CREDIT: Mariela Jara/IPS
by Mariela Jara (cuzco, peru)
Inter Press Service
CUZCO, Peru, Oct 13 (IPS) – This article forms part of IPS coverage of International Day of Rural Women, Oct. 15.Lourdes Barreto, 47, says that as an agroecological small farmer she has improved her life and that of Mother Earth. “I love myself as I love Mother Earth and I have learned to value both of us,” she says in her field outside the village of Huasao, in the highlands of the southern Peruvian department of Cuzco.
On the occasion of the International Day of Rural Women, commemorated Oct. 15, which celebrates their key contribution to rural development, poverty eradication and food security, Barreto’s story highlights the difficulties that rural women face on a daily basis, and their ability to struggle to overcome them.
“I was orphaned when I was six years old and I was adopted by people who did not raise me as part of the family, they did not educate me and they only used me to take their cow out to graze,” she said during a visit by IPS to her village.
“At the age of 18 I became a mother and I had a bad life with my husband, he beat me, he was very jealous. He said that only he could work and he did not give me money for the household,” she said, standing in her greenhouse outside of Huasao, a village of some 200 families.
Barreto said that beginning to be trained in agroecological farming techniques four years ago, at the insistence of her sister, who gave her a piece of land, was a turning point that led to substantial changes in her life.
Of the nearly 700,000 women farmers in Peru, according to the last National Agricultural Census, from 2012, less than six percent have had access to training and technical assistance.
“I have learned to value and love myself as a person, to organize my family so I don’t have such a heavy workload. And another thing has been when I started to grow crops on the land, it gave me enough to eat from the farm to the pot, as they say, and to have some money of my own,” said the mother of three children aged 27, 21 and 19.
Something she values highly is having achieved “agroecological awareness,” as she describes her conviction that agricultural production must eradicate the use of chemical inputs because “the Pacha Mama, Mother Earth, is tired of us killing her microorganisms.”
“I prepare my bocashi (natural fertilizer) myself using manure from my cattle. And I also fumigate without chemicals,” she says proudly. “I make a mixture with ash, ‘rocoto’ chili peppers, five heads of garlic and five onions, plus a bit of laundry soap.”
“I used to grind it with the batán (a pre-Inca grinding stone) but now I put it all in the blender to save time, I fill the backpack with two liters and I go out to spray my crops naturally,” she says.
The COVID pandemic in 2020 and 2021 prompted many rural municipal governments to organize food markets, which became an opportunity for Barreto and other women farmers to sell their agroecological products.
Lourdes Barreto (L) began to learn agroecological farming techniques four years ago, which improved her life in many aspects, including relationships in her family. At the Saturday open-air market in Huancaro, in the city of Cuzco, she wears the green apron that identifies her as a member of the Provincial Association of Agroecological Producers of Quispicanchi. CREDIT: Courtesy of Nadia Quispe
“I sold green beans, zucchini, three kinds of lettuce, broccoli, cauliflower, carrots, Chinese onions, coriander and parsley,” she says, pausing to take a breath and look around in case she forgot any of the vegetables she sells in the city of Cuzco, an hour and a half away from her village, and in Oropesa, the municipal seat.
Another less tangible benefit of her agroecological activity was the improvement in her relationship with her husband, she says, because she gained financial security with the sale of her crops, in which her children have supported her. Now her husband also helps her in the garden and the atmosphere in the home has improved.
Barreto, along with 40 other women farmers from six municipalities, is part of the Provincial Association of Ecological Producers of Quispicanchi, known by its acronym APPEQ – a productive and advocacy organization formed in 2012.
The six participating municipalities are Andahuaylillas, Cusipata, Huaro, Oropesa, Quiquijana and Urcos, all located in the Andes highlands in the department of Cuzco, between 3100 and 3500 meters above sea level, with a Quechua indigenous population that depends on family farming for a living.
Training to strengthen the organization is part of the activities of the Provincial Association of Ecological Producers of Quispicanchi. Maribel Palomino (2nd-R, wearing a headband), the association’s president, talks with fellow members at a workshop held on Sept. 28, 2022. CREDIT: Mariela Jara/IPS
Spreading agroecology
The president of APPEQ, Maribel Palomino, 41, is a farmer who lives in the village of Muñapata, part of Urcos, where she farms land given to her by her father. The mother of a nine-year-old son, Jared, her goal is for the organization and its products, which the rural women sell under the collective brand name Pacharuru (fruits of the earth, in Quechua), to be known throughout Cuzco.
“I recognize and am grateful for the training we received from the Flora Tristán institution to follow our own path as agroecological women farmers, which is very different from the one followed by our mothers and grandmothers,” she tells IPS during a training workshop given by the association she presides over in the city of Cuzco.
The Flora Tristan Peruvian Women’s Center disseminates ecological practices in agricultural production in combination with the empowerment of women in rural communities in remote and neglected areas of this South American country of 33 million people, where 18 percent of the population is rural according to the 2017 national census.
Now, Palomino adds, “we are part of a generation that is leading changes that are not only for the betterment of our children and families, but of ourselves as individuals and as women farmers.”
She is referring to the inequalities that even today, in the 21st century, limit the development of women in the Peruvian countryside.
“Without education, becoming mothers in their adolescence, without land in their own name but in their husband’s, without the opportunity to go out to learn and get training, it is very difficult to become a citizen with rights,” she says.
According to the National Agricultural Census, eight out of 10 women farmers work farms of less than three hectares and six out of 10 do not receive any income for their productive work. In addition, their total workload is greater than men’s, and they are underrepresented in decision-making spaces.
Maribel Palomino (L), president of the Provincial Association of Ecological Producers of Quispicanchi, sells chemical-free vegetables every week at the agroecological market in the neighborhood of Marcavalle in the city of Cuzco, Peru. CREDIT: Courtesy of Maribel Palomino
In this context of inequality and discrimination, Palomino represents a new kind of rural female leadership.
“I am a single mother, my son is nine years old and through my work I give him education, healthy food, a home with affection and care. And he sees in me a woman who is a fighter, proud to work in the fields, who defends her rights and those of her colleagues in APPEQ,” she says.
Palomino says it is crucial to contribute “to change the chip” of the elderly and of many young people who, if they could look out a window of opportunity, could improve their lives and their environment.
“With APPEQ we work to share what we learn, so that more women can look with joy to the future,” she said.
María Antonieta Tito, a farmer from the Andes highlands village of Secsencalla in the southern Peruvian department of Cuzco, shows her seedbeds of lettuce and celery plants. In March 2022 she began learning agroecological practices and is happy with the results that have allowed her to improve the quality of her family’s nutrition while generating her own income from the sale of vegetables at the local market. CREDIT: Mariela Jara/IPS
This is the case of María Antonieta Tito, 32, from the municipality of Andahuaylillas, who for the first time in her life as a farmer is engaged in agroecological practices and whom IPS visited in her vegetable garden in the village of Secsencalla, as part of a tour of several communities with peasant women who belong to the association.
“I am a student of the APPEQ leaders who teach us how to work the soil correctly, to till it up to forty centimeters so that it is soft, without stones or roots. They also teach us how to sow and plant our seeds,” she says proudly.
Pointing to her seedbeds, she adds: “Look, here I have lettuce, purple cabbage and celery, it still needs to sprout, it starts out small like this.”
Tito describes herself as a “new student” of agroecology. She started learning in March of this year but has made fast progress. Not only has she managed to harvest and eat her own vegetables, but every Wednesday she goes to the local market to sell her surplus.
“We have eaten lettuce, tomatoes, cucumber, and chard; everyone at my house likes the vegetables, I have prepared them in salads and in fritters, with eggs. I am helping to improve the nutrition of my family and also of the people who buy from me,” she says happily.
Every Tuesday evening she picks vegetables, carefully washes them, and at six o’clock the next morning she is at a stall in the open-air market in Andahuaylillas, the municipal capital, assisted by her teenage son.
“The customers are getting to know us, they say that the taste of my vegetables is different from the ones they buy at the other stalls. I have been selling for three months and they have already placed orders,” she adds.
But the road to the full exercise of rural women’s rights is very steep.
As Palomino, the president of APPEQ, says, “we have made important achievements, but there is still a long way to go before we can say that we are citizens with equal rights, and the main responsibility for this lies with the governments that have not yet made us a priority.”
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 13 (IPS) – As much of the world was starting to glimpse recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, it now finds itself amid a cost-of-living crisis brought on by disruptions in global energy and food markets that are the result of conflict and climate change.
This again highlights how societal and planetary imbalances reinforce each other, as well as the need for a truly inclusive and green recovery. One that is foundational for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated that digital is no longer optional. Countries with existing digital foundations were much better equipped to respond to citizens’ needs, including through the effective delivery of public services such as healthcare, social security benefits, and remote education. Digital will play a similarly important role in shaping a global green recovery.
Beyond building national socioeconomic resilience, digital transformation is also proving a key enabler in advancing global climate commitments. Countries supported by UNDP are leveraging digital in innovative ways to redouble their efforts to adopt renewable energy, transition to a circular economy, and to protect biodiversity.
Ecuador is building a digital traceability system for monitoring land use change and to track commodities through the supply chain. Papua New Guinea has piloted a mobile phone application to assist law enforcers to quickly record and report environmental harms such as illegal logging and bush fires.
Riad Meddeb
Whether it’s emerging technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI) or more established digital tools like the mobile phone digital can be a fundamental driver of change. It is reshaping the dynamics between the economy, governments, businesses, and civil society and is an important tool in rebalancing our planetary, societal, and economic priorities.
However, digital is fast becoming the global metric of both inclusion and exclusion. With 37 percent of the world’s population still offline, the digital divide, notably, the lack of accessible broadband, gaps in digital skills, and marginalized groups excluded from technology, has become a key barrier for countries wanting to capitalize on the potential opportunities of the increasingly digital economy.
And digital technologies themselves could constrain a Green Recovery. The industry’s carbon footprint could account for about 14 percent of global emissions by 2040. If digital were a country, it would nearly surpass the US as the second largest contributor to climate change. And this impact may worsen, with emerging technologies also contributing to increased emissions.
Digital and a green recovery
Integrating sustainable development in digital is central to ensuring a green recovery – one that drives inclusive digital access and capacity, promotes openness and open data, and fosters innovations that increase the efficiency of digital technologies and mitigates their environmental footprint.
First, we must put people at the centre of innovation. This includes ensuring the availability of foundational digital infrastructure so that everyone can benefit. We must also ensure that the technical standards and explorations of emerging technologies are ‘human-centred’, founded on the local needs and aspirations of populations, but also ‘environment-centred’.
Second, we need to strengthen collaboration between innovation ecosystems. Innovation doesn’t happen in a vacuum. It requires an enabling ecosystem comprising policies and regulations, investors, incubators and accelerators; and educational institutions. Digital can be a potent enabler for connecting dispersed national and global innovation ecosystems in pursuit of sustainability.
Third, data is the lifeblood of digital transformation and could be an important equalizer for countries in accelerating their efforts towards the Sustainable Development Goals.
However, a number of countries lack even foundational data infrastructure, such as data centres, communication networks, and energy grids. We need to accelerate efforts to build data capacity to ensure that existing digital divides are not widened.
Digital is an indispensable enabler for driving a green and inclusive recovery. But it is truly a ‘whole-of-society’ endeavour.
As a platform to showcase innovation, best practice, and to foster partnerships, the UNDP Global Centre for Technology, Innovation, and Sustainable Development will continue to convene global discussions, support and align innovation ecosystems around the world, and guide governments in leveraging the potential afforded by digital. Through driving the experimentation, adoption, and scaling of digital, we can shape a Green Recovery that works for both people and planet.
Riad Meddeb is Acting Director, UNDP Global Centre for Technology, Innovation and Sustainable Development & Senior Principal Advisor for SIDS
These insights were drawn from ‘Digital for a Green Recovery’ – the Flagship Event of the UNDP Global Centre for Technology, Innovation and Sustainable Development, held on the sidelines of the World Cities Summit 2022 in Singapore.
The administration of President Gabriel Boric, a self-described environmentalist, is facing a growing rift between scientists, social leaders and energy companies that have differences with regard to the production of green hydrogen in Magallanes. The first wind turbines have already been installed in the Magallanes region, in the far south of Chile, such as these in Laredo Bay, east of Cabo Negro, where companies are pushing green hydrogen projects in a scenario where environmental costs are beginning to take center stage. CREDIT: Courtesy of Erika Mutschke
by Orlando Milesi (santiago)
Inter Press Service
SANTIAGO, Oct 12 (IPS) – In Magallanes, Chile’s southernmost region, doubts and questions are being raised about the environmental impact of turning this area into the world’s leading producer of green hydrogen.
The projects require thousands of wind turbines, several desalination plants, new ports, docks, roads and hundreds of technicians and workers, with major social, cultural, economic and even visual impacts.
This long narrow South American country of 19.5 million people sandwiched between the Andes Mountains and the Pacific Ocean has enormous solar and wind energy potential in its Atacama Desert and southern pampas grasslands. This has led to a steady increase in electricity generation from clean and renewable sources.
In 2013, only six percent of the country’s total electricity generation came from non-conventional renewable sources (NCREs) – a proportion that climbed to 32 percent this year. Installed NCRE capacity in September reached 13,405 MW, representing 40.7 percent of the total. Of the NCREs, solar energy represents 23.5 percent and wind power 12.6 percent.
In Chile, NCREs are defined as wind, small hydropower plants )up to 20 MW), biomass, biogas, geothermal, solar and ocean energy.
According to the authorities, the wind potential of Magallanes could meet 13 percent of the world’s demand for green hydrogen, with a potential of 126 GW.
Green hydrogen is generated by low-emission renewable energies in the electrolysis of water (H2O) by breaking down the molecules into oxygen (O2) and hydrogen (H2). It currently accounts for less than one percent of the world’s energy.
However, it is projected as the energy source with the most promising future to advance towards the decarbonization of the economy and the replacement of hydrocarbons, due to its potential in electricity-intensive industries, such as steel and cement, or in air and maritime transportation.
The National Green Hydrogen Strategy, launched in November 2021 by the second government of then right-wing President Sebastián Piñera (2018-2022), seeks to increase carbon neutrality, decrease Chile’s dependence on oil and turn this country into an energy exporter.
The government of his successor, leftist President Gabriel Boric, in office since March, created an Interministerial Council of the Green Hydrogen Industry Development Committee, with the participation of eight cabinet ministers.
A spokesperson from the Ministry of Energy told IPS that “this committee has agreed to bring forward, from 2025 to 2022, the update of the National Green Hydrogen Strategy and the new schedule for the allocation of state-owned land for these projects.”
“We will promote green hydrogen in a cross-cutting manner, with an emphasis on harmonious, fair and balanced local development. By bringing forward the update of the strategy, we seek to generate certainty for investors and to begin to create the necessary regulatory framework for the growth of this industry in our country,” he said.
In the area known as Cabo Negro, in the Chilean region of Magallanes, several companies have installed wind turbines to generate wind energy. The installation of thousands of turbines will affect the landscape of Magallanes and environmentalists believe it will impact many birds that migrate annually to this southern region. CREDIT: Courtesy of Erika Mutschke
Warnings from environmentalists
In a letter to the president, more than 80 environmentalists warned of the risk of turning “Magallanes y La Antarctica Chilena” – the region’s official name – into an environmental sacrifice zone for the development of green hydrogen.
“The energy transition cannot mean the sacrifice of migratory routes of birds that are in danger of extinction, otherwise it would not be a fair or sustainable transition,” said the letter, which has not yet received a formal response.
Environmentalists argue that the impact is not restricted to birds, but also affects whales that breed there, due to the effects of desalination plants, large ports and harbors.
Carmen Espoz, dean of science at the Santo Tomás University, who signed the letter, told IPS that “the main warning that we have tried to raise with the government, and with some of the companies with which we have spoken, is that there is a need for zoning or land-use planning, which does not exist to date, and for independent, quality baseline information for decision-making” on the issue.
Espoz, who also heads the Bahía Lomas Center in Magallanes, based in Punta Arenas, the regional capital, clarified that they are not opposed to the production of green hydrogen but demand that it be done right.
It is urgently necessary, she said in an interview in Santiago, to “stop making decisions at the central level without consultation or real participation of the local communities and to generate the necessary technical information base.”
The signatories asked Boric to create a Regional Land Use Plan with Strategic Environmental Assessment to avoid unregulated development of projects.
“We are not only talking about birds, but also about profound social, cultural and environmental impacts,” said Espoz, who argued that the model promoted by the government and green hydrogen developers “does not have a social license to implement it.”
Sunset at Laredo Bay in the Magallanes region where the Chilean government will have to decide on what changes in the grasslands are acceptable, in the face of a flood of requests to use the area for largescale green hydrogen projects. CREDIT: Courtesy of Erika Mutschke
The bird question
Prior to this letter to Boric, the international scientific journal Science published a study by Chilean scientists warning about potential impacts of wind turbines on the 40 to 60 species of migratory birds that visit Magallanes.
“It is estimated that the installation of wind turbines along the migratory paths of birds could affect migratory shorebird populations, which is especially critical in the cases of the Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) and the Magellanic Plover (Pluvianellus socialis),” said Espoz.
Both species, she said, “are endangered, as is the Ruddy-headed Goose (Chloephaga rubidiceps).”
She added that if 13 percent of the world’s green hydrogen is to be generated in southern Chile, some 2,900 wind turbines will have to be installed by 2027, “which could cause between 1,740 and 5,220 collisions with bird per year.”
Jorge Gibbons, a marine biologist at the University of Magallanes, based in Punta Arenas, said the big problem is that Magallanes does not have a baseline for environmental issues.
“The scale of production creates uncertainties, heightened because there is no baseline. The question is whether Chile currently has the capacity to carry out large-scale green hydrogen projects,” he told IPS from the capital of Magallanes.
Gibbons believes it would take about two years to update the data on the dolphin and Southern Right Whale (Eubalaena australis) populations
“The greatest risks to dolphins will be seen in the Strait of Magellan. I am talking about Commerson’s Dolphins (Cephalorhynchus commersonii), which are only found there in Chile and whose population is relatively small,” he said.
He proposed studying the route to ports and harbors of these species and to analyze how they breed and feed.
“The issue is how noise disturbs them or interrupts their routes. These questions are still unanswered, but we know some things because it is the best censused species in Chile,” he explained.
According to Gibbons, the letter to Boric is timely and will help reduce uncertainty because “the process is just beginning and the scientific and local community are now wondering if the plan will be well done.”
Conflict of interests
The partnership between HIF Chile and Enel Green Power Chile withdrew from the Environmental Evaluation System the study of the Faro del Sur Wind Farm project, involving an investment of 500 million dollars for the installation of 65 three-blade wind turbines on 3,791 hectares of land in Magallanes.
The study was presented in early August with the announcement that it was “a decisive step for the future of green hydrogen-based eFuels.”
But on Oct. 6, its withdrawal was announced after a series of observations were issued by the Magallanes regional Secretariat of the Environment.
“The observations of some public bodies in the evaluation process of this wind farm exceed the usual standards,” the consortium formed by the Chilean company HIF and the subsidiary of the Italian transnational Enel claimed in a statement.
The companies argued that “the authorities must provide clear guidelines to the companies on the expectations for regional development, safeguarding the communities and the environment.
“In light of these exceptional requirements, it is necessary to understand which requirements can be incorporated and which definitely make projects of this type unfeasible in the region,” they complained.
The government reacted by stating that it is important to remember that Faro del Sur is the first green hydrogen project submitted to the environmental assessment process in Magallanes.
“During the process, some evaluating entities made observations on the project, so the owners decided to withdraw it early, which does not prevent them from reintroducing it when they deem it convenient,” the Ministry of Energy spokesperson told IPS.
He added that the ministry stresses “the conviction to develop the green hydrogen industry in the country and that this means sending out signals, but in no case should this compromise environmental standards and citizen participation in the evaluation processes.”
Informal sector only received 4 percent of post pandemic funds even though the sector accounts for more than 2 billion workers, many of whom are women. Credit: IITA
by Ed Holt (bratislava)
Inter Press Service
BRATISLAVA, Oct 12 (IPS) – Governments and international financial institutions must adopt new ways of providing post-pandemic support, say campaigners after a report found that in many poorer countries, big business benefitted most from Covid-19 recovery funds. At the same time, vulnerable communities have been “left behind.”
They say the level and distribution of support of these funds has been poor, with the most vulnerable in society, such as informal workers and women, among others, having been especially failed by relief programmes.
And they warn that the measures have actually only deepened inequalities at a time when the UN has warned that up to 95 million additional people could soon fall into extreme poverty in comparison with pre-Covid-19 levels.
Matti Kohonen, Director of the Financial Transparency Coalition (FTC), which was behind the report, told IPS: “The elite have been sheltered from the worst effects of the pandemic. Nearly 40 percent of Covid-19 recovery funds went to large corporations, through measures like loans and tax cuts. This means that social protection for, in particular, women and informal workers, has been inadequate.”
The FTC’s research found that in 21 countries in the Global South, large corporations received 38 percent of recovery funds while small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) got 20 percent. Social protection measures accounted for 38 percent.
Meanwhile, informal workers received only 4 percent of the funds in the countries surveyed, and the research showed that in many of those states, they actually received nothing at all.
Studies have shown that informal workers, and especially women, were globally hit hardest by the Covid-19 pandemic, and that economic policy measures taken in response have largely been gender-blind, exacerbating existing gender inequality and economic precarity in the sector.
According to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), of the 2 billion informal workers worldwide, over 740 million are women. However, there is a higher share of women than men in informal employment in many of the world’s poorest regions: in more than 90 percent of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, 89 percent of southern Asian countries, and almost 75 percent of Latin American countries.
These women also often have jobs most likely to be associated with poor conditions, limited or non-existent labour rights and social protection, and low pay.
The FTC report points out that while the COVID-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on women’s employment, working hours, and increases in unpaid domestic and care work duties, it found that women received half the funds than men received as most money provided to corporates and also smaller companies predominantly went to men (representing over 59 percent of funds).
Klelia Guerrero, Economist at The Latin American Network for Economic and Social Justice (LATINDADD), who helped with research into the FTC report, said that just doing work collecting data on the distribution of recovery funds underlined how little thought had been given to women in Covid-19 response policies.
It was only in a handful of the countries surveyed (Guatemala, Honduras, Bangladesh, Brazil, and Costa Rica) that partial gender-disaggregated data on Covid-19 grants were made available to analyze Covid-19 support.
“Most countries did not have disaggregated gender data; it was only partial. This in itself should be a red flag – it shows that the people who were implementing these support schemes did not think of women as a priority,” Guerrero told IPS.
And while the report shows that women did receive the majority of social protection funds in the countries surveyed, even some of those programmes “had discriminative aspects”.
“For example, here in Ecuador, we had a scheme where people had to register online and then go at certain times to receive their aid products. This was difficult for a lot of women who had to be in the home at those times, or there was no public transport to get to the places to receive aid. So, women were disadvantaged,” she said.
“Some groups of the population did benefit from Covid relief measures, but the most vulnerable not as much. It was difficult for them to access the aid. The criteria under which aid is given out should include a gender perspective.” she added.
Other equality campaigners agree.
“Numerous research has shown how, especially in Africa, women make up the majority of the informal sector. One of the big takeaways of the report is the poor targeting of women in the support response. Programmes going forward need to take into account the gender dimension of any policy,” Ishmael Zulu, Tax and Policy Officer at the Tax Justice Network Africa (TJNA), told IPS.
Groups like the FTC and its members, including the TJNA, say the report’s findings are important not just in terms of the post-pandemic recovery but in highlighting the need to change how support is given to the most vulnerable communities in developing countries in the long-term future.
Ishmael pointed out that in one scheme in Zambia, the government introduced stimulus to help SMEs and informal workers, but the money was channelled through commercial banks that set specific requirements to access that money, including the need to provide bank statements.
“Of course, that is very difficult for many informal workers. They just couldn’t provide those documents. So, in the end, even money meant for vulnerable groups ended up in the hands of big corporations, which are the ones that can provide those documents,” he explained. “It speaks of the weakness of the system.”
The FTC report has also warned that policies pursued by international financial institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), of pushing countries to introduce austerity measures and cut funding for basic public services in return for debt restructuring is making things worse.
It cites the example of the cuts in public spending and rises in Value-Added Taxes (VAT) being imposed as part of an IMF loan program in Zambia, saying this will have the greatest impact on the poor.
Ishmael said: “Our current financial structures have perpetuated inequality in the way, for instance, financial institutions give loans: several countries have had to reform their tax systems … and these financial institutions say subsidies and spending should be channelled into some areas and not others, and it ends up that money is targeted towards large corporates, and vulnerable communities are left behind.”
He added: “We saw growing inequality , and so when Covid-19 hit, we saw how these vulnerable communities were left behind without safety nets. Governments must put in place sustainable social protection systems providing safety nets to help lift people out of poverty and which won’t just respond to a pandemic or an emergency, but respond to fighting poverty and inequality.”
The FTC is planning to present its findings at the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings later this month.
The FTC’s report calls for all countries and international institutions, including the IMF and World Bank, to implement what it describes as “alternative policies to bring a people-centered recovery instead of austerity”.
These include, among others, taxing excess windfall corporate profits, introducing progressive levels of income and wealth taxes, and increasing social security contributions and coverage.
Kohonen said informal workers and women should be at the heart of any such policies.
“Informal sector and women workers really pulled us through the pandemic, and it is wrong to now impose austerity on them. Support needs to be in place for informal and women workers, people on the front lines, before a pandemic so that support can be then scaled up if needed, in the form of loans, grants or other aid,” he said.
Clearing ground to grow vegetables-Sultan’s Kinnow orchard. Credit: Alefia Hussain/IPS
by Alefia Hussain (lahore, pakistan)
Inter Press Service
LAHORE, Pakistan, Oct 11 (IPS) – The zesty citrus whiff from the rows of trees boasting unripe kinnow (mandarins) freshens the autumn air in late September. Two deeply tanned men clear the ground under and between the trees to plant vegetables.
Opposite the orchard, and divided by a narrow dirt path, are rows of small greenhouses cloaked in white plastic. Inside, plants from small to large, possibly the entire variety of citrus fruit grown in Pakistan – including the ambitious seedless and rouge varieties – stand in glory. It’s an experiment in growing environment-friendly oranges without fertilizers or pesticides on the expansive farm owned by Shahid Sultan, one of the country’s largest citrus processors and exporters, in Bhalwal, Sargodha district, Punjab province.
Shahid Sultan. Credit: Alefia Hussain/IPS
Sargodha is the land of the citrus in Pakistan. Most of the country’s oranges, grown over thousands of hectares of farmland and exported across the world, come from here. Sargodha is also the district where most kinnow, a sweet and tangy thirst quencher and a good source of vitamin C, are grown and processed. The fruit is the product of experimentation conducted in California way back in the 1950s.
Once considered Pakistan’s fabled export product, kinnow’s market abroad is in decline. The country exported roughly 177,000 tonnes of the fruit in 2022 as opposed to 455,000 tonnes in 2021, according to figures provided by the Sargodha Chamber of Commerce. Sultan has also soured on the fruit.
‘I will not export kinnow anymore’
“I have decided I will not export kinnow anymore. I will grow and, Inshallah, export mushrooms but not kinnow, says Sultan, director of the Zahid Kinnow Grading and Waxing Plant, during a visit to his orchard. “It’s impossible to control kinnow’s shelf life. By the time it reaches markets abroad, it has perished.”
Sultan has been exporting oranges since 1996. “Between 2004 and 2016, I was the top orange exporter in the country. I was the first to enter the Russian market,” he claims. He exported to Persian Gulf, Central Asian and Far Eastern states some 1,000-1,200 refrigerator containers full of fruit every season.
Though agriculture experts cite climate change, rising power prices, shortage of water and outdated farming techniques as reasons for decline in the fruit’s quality, Sultan holds excessive use of fertilisers and pesticides as the only factor responsible. “We have used too many inorganic methods and products that have rendered the soil infertile.”
After incurring a loss of 80-100 million Pakistani rupees (US$36,000-46,000) in the last two years, the farmer is clear about his decision to switch from kinnow to mushrooms, reasoning that if China can grow and export mushrooms the world over, “so can I.” Launching production of mushrooms of the genus Agaricus, commonly called button or champagne mushrooms, is likely to cost $10 million. Sultan predicts the yield to be four times greater than the country’s consumption requirements. He is expecting his first crop to be ready by November this year.
Standing in the orchard it is hard to imagine the citrus-scented air replaced by the stink of compost and the rows of trees usurped by bunker-like ‘tunnels’ growing champagne mushrooms. Sultan has converted old cold storage rooms into the temperature and moisture-controlled spaces to raise the soft, round, white mushrooms. All processes will be carried out indoors on the company’s existing premises.
New machines imported
“My team and I have ensured that we are totally protected from the weather. The entire production – from spawn to compost to canning of the produce will be done under a controlled environment.” Brand new machinery required for his venture has been imported from China. The spotless machines await production.
The market for mushrooms is growing rapidly in Pakistan, as Chinese and Thai foods, as well as pizzas, are becoming popular among food enthusiasts. Leading hotels and gourmet restaurants are the main buyers of the product, in canned as well as fresh form. Larger supermarkets are selling a variety of mushrooms but they are too pricey for the average person.
Small farmers are growing and selling fresh mushrooms in local markets. The canned ones available in supermarkets are mostly imported from China.
With mushroom growing still in the inception stage, little technical knowledge and expertise is available to growers about commercial scale production and value chain development. They can either seek assistance from private companies involved in agriculture research and trade or approach international agencies that focus on hunger, malnutrition and poverty.
Having collected data on canning mushrooms from all over the world, Sultan decided to approach the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) to gain insight into best management practices for commercial production, improving business performance and developing market linkages for export. He was also eager to connect with international experts in commercial production and processing of mushrooms.
“Although it has been Zahid Kinnow’s own decision to venture into mushroom cultivation, the FAO may consider supporting the private sector enterprise by providing technical assistance,” says Asad Zahoor, FAO consultant.
Smelly but healthy plant food-A mixture of spawn and compost. Credit: Alefia Hussain/IPS
Mushrooms get FAO nod
Zahoor told IPS that FAO, through its Hand in Hand Initiative (HiH), seeks to empower countries and their agricultural partners through data sharing and model-based analytics. Seeing reasonable potential for investment, the organization in Pakistan has decided to include mushroom in HiH as an emerging commodity that could add to the country’s export earnings.
Globally, HiH seeks to accelerate agricultural transformation, with the goal of eradicating poverty, ending hunger and malnutrition, and reducing inequalities. The initiative was supporting 52 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East as of May 2022.
The demand for canned mushrooms is rising fast in Pakistan. According to Karachi customs officials, in July 2021, 93,877 kg of canned mushrooms were imported from China via the sea route alone. That grew to 284,553 kg in June 2022.
In addition, the country imported nearly 17 million kg of fresh or chilled Agaricus mushrooms from China in 2021, according to International Trade Centre calculations based on figures provided by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
Asif Ali, an agriculture expert associated with leading fertiliser manufacturer Engro Fertilisers, thinks that with the trend of consuming plant-based proteins increasing worldwide, investing in mushroom could capture the high value local and international export markets. “Mushrooms are considered to be a good source of protein and consumption is increasing among people at home and abroad,” he said in an interview.
Time will tell if Pakistan is well positioned to enter the international market for mushrooms. But, Sultan says, “I feel, with mushrooms, I have given birth to a new kid in town.”
Opinion by Alexander Kozul-Wright, Ruurd Brouwer (geneva)
Inter Press Service
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank share a common goal of raising living standards in their member countries. This week, the two international institutions will convene in Washington DC (through October 16) for their annual meeting. The strength of the US dollar will be a key talking point. By adjusting their lending practices, these institutions have a unique opportunity to relieve suffering in the world’s poorest countries.
GENEVA, Oct 11 (IPS) – In the last week of September, emerging market (EM) bond fund outflows hit $4.2 billion, according to JP Morgan, bringing this year’s total to a record $70 billion. The exodus, set off by a rising U.S. dollar, is heaping pressure on low-income countries.
The greenback’s rise has been fuelled by interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Since March, the Fed has raised rates by three percentage points, prompting global investors to move their funds into U.S. financial assets and away from (riskier) EM investments.
While economists continue to wrangle over their U.S. growth forecasts, this ‘flight to quality’ has sent financial shockwaves across the developing world, already straining under elevated costs for food and fuel – typically priced in U.S. dollars. Moreover, attempts by EM policy makers to stem the dollar’s rise have largely failed.
Over the course of this year, central banks around the world have drained their U.S. dollar reserves at the fastest rate since 2008. To stem currency depreciations, they have also raised interest rates aggressively. In Argentina, for instance, policy makers raised rates to 75% last month. To little avail.
The MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index, which measures the total return of 25 emerging market currencies against the U.S. Dollar, is down nearly 9 percent from January 1st. The Egyptian pound has depreciated by 20% over the same period, according to Bloomberg data. In Ghana, the Cedi has fallen by 41%.
On top of higher imports costs, a plunging currency makes the servicing of dollar- denominated debt more expensive. This concern may seem abstract to people in advanced economies. In developing nations, however, the effects are painfully real.
As the dollar appreciates relative to other currencies, more domestic currency (in the form of tax revenues) has to be generated to service existing dollar debts. For low-income governments, budget cuts have to be implemented in the hope of avoiding sovereign default.
Currency depreciations have the power to strongarm authorities into reducing health and education spending, just to stay current on their debts. This leaves officials with a grim choice: either risk unleashing a full-blown debt crisis, or confiscate essential public services.
Given the painful costs of insolvency, governments tend to prioritize austerity over bankruptcy. Together with the oft-publicized effects of lost access to foreign investment, subdued growth and high unemployment, sovereign default also imposes severe social tolls.
In August, the World Bank published a paper measuring the decline in country living standards – looking at access to food, energy and healthcare – after state bankruptcies. The paper showed that ten years after default, countries experience 13% more infant deaths per year, on average, compared to the synthetic control (counterfactual) group.
Admittedly, more developed emerging markets like Brazil and India can issue bonds in their own currency to limit budget cutbacks. In most of the world’s poor countries, however, financial markets are too shallow to support domestic lending.
With no recourse to borrow from private creditors, public bodies like multi-lateral development banks (MDBs) usually step in to fill the gap. Indeed, almost 90% of low-income countries’ (LICs) funding takes the form of concessional, or non-commercial, loans from official lenders.
Even accounting for these favourable terms, financial pressures are beginning to build outside of well-known hot spots like Lebanon, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. As it stands, LICs have outstanding debts to MDBs and other official creditors to the tune of $153 billion (mostly denominated in USD).
Given the exogenous trigger for capital outflows from developing countries this year, multi-lateral lenders need to be more innovative. Where possible, they should use their robust credit ratings to assume greater risk by lending to poor countries in domestic currencies.
Failing that, they could lend in synthetic local currencies. These instruments index dollar debts to local exchange rates, allowing borrowers to service liabilities in their own currency while ensuring that creditors receive payments (both interest and principal) in dollars.
Synthetic currencies can improve debtor credit profiles by limiting foreign capital outflows and, by extension, improve debt management capacity. In particular, they boost economic resiliency by making government finances less a function of international currency volatility.
Multilateral financial institutions have been tasked with designing a stable international monetary system to try and ease global poverty. But the loans provided by these groups undermine their own mission, as dollar debts force currency risk onto the countries least able to handle it.
This week, the World Bank and the IMF will convene in Washington (October 10-16) for their annual meeting. The strength of the USD will be a key talking point. By adjusting their lending practices, these institutions have a unique opportunity to relieve suffering in the world’s poorest countries.
Alexander Kozul-Wright is a researcher at Third World Network and Ruurd Brouwer is Chief Executive Officer at TCX, a currency hedging firm (https://www.tcxfund.com).
Experts from the Netherlands and Bangladesh visit the Rupsha River in Khulna, southern Bangladesh, the planned site of future fish farms. Credit: IPS/Gemcon
by Mosabber Hossain (dhaka)
Inter Press Service
DHAKA, Oct 10 (IPS) – Bangladeshi businessman Kazi Inam Ahmed is building his dream in a village near Rupsha River in Khulna, southern Bangladesh—to develop fish farming in the region, where climate change is reducing the ocean’s catch. He envisions creating small ponds, which would employ local climate affected fisherfolk, then exporting the international quality harvest to the Netherlands.
Inam, director of Gemcon Group, a conglomerate that includes Gemcon Food & Agricultural Products Ltd, is preparing his project thanks to advice from experts who visited recently from the Netherlands. “The Dutch co-partner of this project, Viqon Water Solutions, shared the preliminary design with us on 29 September. They will provide us with the final design in December. We will start our civil works after getting the final design.”
“For the first one or two years we’ll start fishing to gain experience,” adds the businessman in an interview. “We’ll see which types yield better harvests. After that, we’ll focus on some species that are very popular in different countries and can earn export dollars. I’d like to start with shrimp.”
How did Inam find his dream? In November 2021, he was included as one of the private-sector representatives on a Bangladesh Government mission to the Netherlands, organized to develop the capacity of the Ministry of Agriculture and foster matchmaking to strengthen the country’s food exports, agro-processing, food safety, and laboratory capacity.
Organized through the Hand in Hand Initiative (HiH) of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the delegation, which included five other agro-food companies, was led by Bangladesh Minister of Agriculture Dr Abdur Razzaque. It visited locations including the World Horticulture Centre, Wageningen University and Research, one of the world’s biggest onion exporting companies, and a range of other agricultural companies that grow and process produce that is exported globally.
Hand-in-Hand to improve agriculture
According to Robert D Simpson, FAO Representative in the country, “Bangladesh is a key country for HiH. Working with the government and private sector,” Simpson told IPS, “FAO develops value chains for profitable commodities, builds agro-industries, efficient water management systems, and digital services. The initiative also helps to reduce food loss and waste, and address climate challenges and weather risks.”
Bangladesh’s mission to the Netherlands, organized via the UN FAO’s Hand-in-Hand Initiative, visited various facilities in November 2021 to gather information on food exports, agro processing, and food safety. The delegation was led by Bangladesh Minister of Agriculture Dr Abdur Razzaque.
“The results will be raised incomes, improved nutrition and well-being of poor and vulnerable populations, and strengthened resilience to climate change,” added Simpson.
HiH is an evidence-based, country-owned and led initiative of the FAO to accelerate agricultural transformation, which also aims to eradicate poverty, end hunger and malnutrition, and reduce inequalities. The initiative was supporting 52 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East as of May 2022.
Speaking at the end of the November 2021 official trip, Razzaque said that Bangladesh will benefit from Dutch technology and know-how. “To be competitive in the global market in terms of price, quality, and safety, I think it’s important to keep updated with the latest technology in order to increase productivity.”
“We are looking forward to seeing the outcome of this project,” added the minister. “Hopefully it will be one of the successful initiatives by the government and private sector. The technologies that are coming to Bangladesh will help cope with the impact of climate change on agriculture.”
In addition, potato and onion experts from the Netherlands will train officials from the Department of Agriculture Extension (DAE), who will then train local farmers.
FAO Bangladesh has also organized several workshops and meetings with private sector and government officials to identify gaps and challenges for agricultural transformation.
Bangladesh’s mission to the Netherlands, organized via the UN FAO’s Hand-in-Hand Initiative, visited various facilities in November 2021 to gather information on food exports, agro processing, and food safety. Potato and onion experts from the Netherlands will train officials from the Department of Agriculture Extension, who will then train local farmers.
French fries on the menu
ACI Agro was another private-sector member of November’s delegation. “It was a magnificent learning platform,” the firm’s managing director and CEO, Dr FH Ansarey, told IPS. “We were searching for a good potato variant. In Bangladesh there is a big market for French fries but no variant to produce them. Luckily we found a company to help with that.”
“We spoke with Schaap Holland, one of the prominent potato seeds companies of the Netherlands. They agreed to send six different variant potato seeds to our company. Their potato variants are perfect for making good French fries.”
Ansarey said ACI Agro has already located a farming area near the capital Dhaka. “If everything is OK we’ll start farming soon. Their seeds are next generation potatoes, which can grow within 60-65 days. The cost of cultivation is less than three-four percent of other variants due to low infestation of diseases. Seventy percent of the potatoes are above 80 grams so they can be easily exported.”
“So I must say it’s a very good opportunity for Bangladesh to move into the next generation of farming as well as become a global exporter.”
Opinion by Jomo Kwame Sundaram, Anis Chowdhury (sydney and kuala lumpur)
Inter Press Service
SYDNEY and KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 10 (IPS) – The dogmatic obsession with and focus on fighting inflation in rich countries are pushing the world economy into recession, with many dire consequences, especially for poorer countries. This phobia is due to myths shared by most central bankers.
Anis Chowdhury
Myth 1: Inflation chokes growth
The common narrative is that inflation hurts growth. Major central banks (CBs), the Bretton Woods institutions (BWIs) and the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) all insist inflation harms growth despite all evidence to the contrary. The myth is based on a few, very exceptional cases.
“Once-in-a-generation inflation in the US and Europe could choke off global growth, with a global recession possible in 2023”, claimed the World Economic Forum Chief Economist’s Outlook under the headline, “Inflation Will Lead Inexorably To Recession”.
The Atlantic recently warned, “Inflation Is Bad… raising the prospect of a period of economic stagnation or even a recession”. The Economist claims, “It hurts investment and makes most people poorer”.
Jomo Kwame Sundaram
Without evidence, the narrative claims causation runs from inflation to growth, with inevitable “adverse” consequences. But serious economists have found no conclusive supporting evidence.
World Bank chief economist Michael Bruno and William Easterly asked, “Is inflation harmful to growth?” With data from 31 countries for 1961-94, they concluded, “The ratio of fervent beliefs to tangible evidence seems unusually high on this topic, despite extensive previous research”.
OECD evidence for 1961-2021 – Figures 1a & 1b – updates Bruno & Easterly, again contradicting the ‘standard narrative’ of major CBs, BWIs, BIS and others. The inflation-growth relationship is strongly positive when 1974-75 – severe oil spike recession years – are excluded.
The relationship does not become negative even when 1974-75 are included. Also, the “Great Inflation” of 1965-82 did not harm growth. Hence, there is no empirical basis for setting a particular threshold, such as the now standard 2% inflation target – long acknowledged as “plucked from the air”!
Developing countries also have a positive inflation-growth relationship if extreme cases – e.g., inflation rates in excess of 20%, or ‘excessively’ impacted by commodity price volatilities, civil strife, war – are omitted (Figures 2a & 2b).
Figure 2a summarizes evidence for 82 developing countries during 1991-2021. Although slightly weakened, the positive relationship remained, even if the 1981-90 debt crises years are included (Figure 2b).
Myth 2: Inflation always accelerates
Another popular myth is that once inflation begins, it has an inherent tendency to accelerate. As inflation supposedly tends to speed up, not acting decisively to nip it in the bud is deemed dangerous. So, the IMF chief economist advises, “Don’t let inflation ‘genie’ out of the bottle”. Hence, inflation has to be ‘nipped in the bud’.
But, in fact, OECD inflation has never exceeded 16% in the past six decades, including the 1970s’ oil shock years. Inflation does not accelerate easily, even when labour has more bargaining power, or wages are indexed to consumer prices – as in some countries.
Bruno & Easterly only found a high likelihood of inflation accelerating when inflation exceeded 40%. Two MIT economists – Rüdiger Dornbusch and Stanley Fischer, later International Monetary Fund Deputy Managing Director – came to a similar conclusion, describing 15–30% inflation as “moderate”.
Dornbusch & Fischer also stressed, “Most episodes of moderate inflation were triggered by commodity price shocks and were brief; very few ended in higher inflation”. Importantly, they warned, “such inflations can be reduced only at a substantial … cost to growth”.
Myth 3: Hyperinflation threatens
Although extremely rare, avoiding hyperinflation has become the pretext for central bankers prioritizing inflation prevention. Hyperinflation – at rates over 50% for at least a month – is undoubtedly harmful for growth. But as IMF research shows, “Since 1947, hyperinflations in market economies have been rare”.
Many of the worst hyperinflation episodes in history were after World War Two and the Soviet demise. Bruno & Easterly also mention breakdowns of economic and political systems – as in Iran or Nicaragua, following revolutions overthrowing corrupt despotic regimes.
A White House staff blog noted, “The inflationary period after World War II is likely a better comparison for the current economic situation than the 1970s and suggests that inflation could quickly decline once supply chains are fully online and pent-up demand levels off”.
Myth 4: Evidence-based policymaking
Central bankers love to claim their policymaking is evidence-based. They cite one another and famous economists to enhance the aura of CB “credibility”.
Greater central bank independence (from the executive) has enhanced the influence and power of financial interests – largely at the expense of the real economy. Output and employment growth weakened as a result, worsening the lot of the many, especially in the global South.
Fact: Central banks induce recessions
Inappropriate CB policies have often slowed economic growth without mitigating inflation. Hawkish CB responses to inflation can become self-fulfilling prophecies with high inflation seemingly associated with recessions or growth collapses.
Thus, central bank interventions have caused contractions without reducing inflation. The longest US recession after the Great Depression – in the early 1980s – was due to Fed chair Paul Volcker’s 1979-81 interest rate hikes.
Fearing an “extremely severe” world recession, Columbia University history professor Adam Tooze has summed up the current CBs’ interest rate hike frenzy as “the single most dramatic simultaneous tightening of monetary policy ever”!
Phobias, especially if based on unfounded beliefs, never offer good bases for sound policymaking.
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