Category: World

The Impact of a Single Missile

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — An explosion last week, in the eastern Polish village of Przewodow, killed two people and created heightened concern about just how quickly the war in Ukraine could escalate into a global conflict. 
The Cipher Brief compiled a tic-toc of what happened, telling the story of how a single missile brought into sharp focus, the risks that are truly at play in Ukraine.

BACKGROUND

  • Polish Radio ZET reported that two stray missiles caused the blast.
  • The Associated Press cited a senior US intelligence official saying Russian missiles had crossed into Poland.
  • The Pentagon initially said it could not confirm reports that Russian missiles had landed in Polish territory.  
  • The Russian Defense Ministry denied the reports, calling the allegations “a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation.”  It added that Russia did not hit targets near the Ukrainian-Polish border and that debris found at the site of the blasts had “nothing to do with Russian weapons.”
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy later said, without providing evidence, that Russian missiles hit Poland. He called the attack on “the territory of our friendly country” an “attack on collective security” and said it marked a “significant escalation” in the conflict with Russia.
  • In response to the blasts, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Marawiecki held an emergency Security Council meeting. The Polish government also raised military readiness.
  • Polish President Andrzej Duda spoke with President Joe Biden about the blasts. The White House said Biden reiterated to Duda that the US has an “ironclad commitment to NATO.” 
  • Duda also discussed the incident with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who said it was important to find all the facts behind the causes of the explosion.
  • A Polish government spokesman said Poland is considering whether it will call NATO for discussions under Article 4, which states that an alliance member can call for consultations when it feels its “territorial integrity, political independence or security” are at risk.

“If this was an accident, the instinct in Warsaw and Washington will be caution and restraint, with Article 4 discussions signaling the Russians not to screw up again,” Cipher Brief Expert and former Acting Director of CIA John McLaughlin told us.

John McLaughlin, Former CIA Acting Director

“If this was a deliberate provocation, and we will almost certainly know before long, then the Alliance will be provoked and will have to respond in some way.  The default impulse will probably be to avoid getting into a tit-for-tat between NATO and Russia.  But we might relax some of the cautions we’ve given the Ukrainians about not hitting certain Russian targets or other redlines.”

The incident sparked alarm and calls for the defense of NATO territory across central and eastern Europe, putting squarely into focus the question of just how quickly NATO would be ready to launch a response and what that response might look like.

  • Latvia appeared to explicitly accuse Russia of causing the blasts. Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks tweeted, “Criminal Russian regime fired missiles which targeted not only Ukrainian civilians but also landed on NATO territory in Poland.”
  • Estonia expressed solidarity with Poland as well as its willingness to “defend every inch of NATO territory,” according to a tweet from the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. However, Estonia did not explicitly blame Russia for the blasts.
  • Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda likewise expressed solidarity with Poland and called for “every inch of NATO territory” to be defended, according to a tweet. He said “the cause of the explosions is not yet known,” but added that they happened as Russia launched missile strikes in Ukraine.
  • Hungary convened a defense council meeting to discuss the blasts, as well as disruptions to oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline.

“We don’t know enough yet about the strike,” cautioned Cipher Brief Expert and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral Jim Stavridis (Ret.). 

Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.), Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander

“But assuming it was an errant missile from Russia, this provides a strong motivation to reinforce air defense along the NATO-Ukraine border at a minimum. It could also cause NATO to provide MIG-29 aircraft to the Ukrainians from Poland, with US backfilling with F-16s. And it may cause a serious discussion about putting a no-fly zone up over Ukraine, manned by NATO fighters.”

The Morning After

The Polish Foreign Ministry released a statement early Wednesday saying that a Russian-made missile caused an explosion in eastern Poland that killed two people.  The ministry said it summoned the Russian ambassador and “demanded immediate detailed explanations” for the blasts.

  • Polish President Andrzej Duda then appeared to step back from a full-throated condemnation of Russia, saying there is no conclusive evidence showing who fired the missiles and that investigations are ongoing. He added that the explosion appeared to be a “one-off” incident. He also said it is likely Poland will ask for consultations under Article 4 at a planned North Atlantic Council meeting on Wednesday. 
  • President Joe Biden convened an emergency meeting of NATO and G7 leaders gathered in Bali for a G20 summit to discuss the missile blast. He told reporters that, according to “preliminary information,” he thinks “it is unlikely” the missile was fired from Russia due to its trajectory, but said he would not make any conclusions until the Polish investigation is completed.
  • Three US officials tell The Associated Press that preliminary findings suggest that the missile that landed in Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces in an attempt to intercept an incoming Russian missile.
  • Polish President Andrzej Duda says the explosion was “very likely” an “unfortunate accident” caused by an Ukrainian air defense missile, rather than any “intentional attack.” He added that the missile was “most likely” Russian-made, but that there is no current evidence that Russian forces fired it.
  • NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg echoed Duda’s conclusion, though he emphasized that “this is not Ukraine’s fault” and that “Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.”

Sir Alex Younger, Former Chief, MI6

“It is, literally, a warning shot about the possibility of escalation,” Cipher Brief Expert and former Chief, Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service, MI6 Sir Alex Younger told us.  “But I’m confident that Putin understands that deliberate escalation is very much not in his interest. I’d add that even if it was a Ukrainian air defence missile, the blame still lies firmly with Russia.”

What Did We Learn?

Among other things, we learned how dangerously close a single missile can come to escalating an already tense situation to a higher level of global conflict.  We learned how quickly information is shared and we saw how NATO countries were at least thinking about responding, if the missile had in fact, been fired by Russia.  While the lessons from this single incident are worth noting, so too is the bigger picture.
 
“In 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia, the response of the West was inadequate. Russia got to hold on to 20% of the nation of Georgia,” Cipher Brief Expert and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander General Phil Breedlove (Ret.) told us.

General Phil Breedlove (Ret.), Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander

“The western world rewarded Russia’s bad behavior. In 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine and took 11 or 12% of Ukrainian territory. Moscow threatened to huff and puff and blow our house down with World War III or their nukes. Once again, the west capitulated and allowed them to hang on to a big chunk of Ukraine. For the second time, we rewarded bad behavior.  We shouldn’t be surprised that we’re back now for a third time. Russia has seized another big part of Ukraine. And when the west starts to respond, Russia has huffed and puffed and threatened to blow our house down with World War III and nukes. And they fully expect us to capitulate a third time. We in the West are at a point of decision, are we going to, for the third time, reward bad behavior? The West and the Western world have a decision to make. Mr. Putin is huffing and he’s puffing and he’s threatening to blow our house down and we need to decide how we’re going to respond.  Here’s what I know for sure: If we capitulate and allow Russia to hold onto even more Ukrainian territory, we’ll be back here again in 2025 and 2028 and 2031 and 2033. It’s time for us to step up.”

Cipher Brief Writer and Researcher Ethan Masucol contributed to this piece

Read more expert-driven national security insight, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief



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Rights expert urges Korea to play ‘enhanced leadership role’ — Global Issues

“The Republic of Korea can play a vital leadership role in denying the Myanmar junta the means to continue holding 54 million people hostage while becoming a leader in providing humanitarian support to those in desperate need’’, said Tom Andrews, UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar,  in a statement on Monday.

‘Lead by example’

He urged the Government of South Korea to build on the positive steps it has taken, including publicly denouncing the coup, imposing an arms embargo, and issuing a moratorium on forced returns of Myanmar nationals back to their country.

“The ROK can lead by example to prevent Myanmar nationals from being forcibly returned to Myanmar from other countries”, said the Special Rapporteur, adding that given the brutal violence perpetrated by the junta, “no country should force anyone back to Myanmar”.

“The ROK has established an unambiguous policy that protects people from being forced back to Myanmar. It should be considered as a model for all countries in the region.”

People under siege

Mr. Andrews highlighted ROK’s unique position to positively impact the situation in Myanmar.

“Not only is the ROK a strong regional power with a vibrant economy and a member of ASEAN+3, but as I learned in my travels here, the people of the ROK can identify deeply with a people who are under siege and yet are also defiant and committed to undoing the shackles of a military dictatorship”, he said.

“Now it is time for the ROK to build upon the positive steps it has taken and transform its political support and empathy for Myanmar into even stronger action’’.

Stepping up support

The Special Rapporteur also made several suggestions, including that ROK “denounce the fraudulent elections” that the junta is planning for next year, impose economic sanctions on key economic targets associated with the junta, and expand upon its humane treatment of Myanmar nationals residing in the ROK while encouraging Myanmar’s neighbours to “do the same”.

While the humanitarian visa programme allows Myanmar nationals with valid visas in the ROK to legally extend their stay and have access to employment, he urged the Government to “deepen these efforts by ensuring that all persons from Myanmar residing in the ROK, including irregular migrants, can regularize their status, to avoid exploitation and abuse”.

Travels within

During his visit, Andrews met government officials, civil society and human rights representatives, major Korean business leaders with operations in Myanmar and ethnic groups in the country.

The independent expert travelled to the city of Gwangju, where he visited memorial sites of the May 18 Revolution and met with members of the Gwangju Myanmar solidarity movement.

Mr. Andrews, like all Special Rapporteurs, was appointed by the Geneva-based UN Human Rights Council to examine and report back on a specific human rights theme or country situation. His position is honorary and he is not paid for his work.

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Honour traffic victims by making roads safer: Guterres — Global Issues

Every year, 1.3 million people die in road accidents and 50 million more are injured, he said, making this the leading cause of death for children and young people. 

The UN chief’s remarks came in his message to mark the World Day of Remembrance for Road Traffic Victims, observed annually on 20 November. 

“One of the best ways to remember and honour the victims is by doing our part to make roads safer around the world”, he said. 

Development in danger 

The Secretary-General also pointed out how road traffic crashes are linked to development. 

Nine out of 10 victims are in middle- and low-income countries. 

“Saving more lives requires ensuring more funding for safe and sustainable mobility, whole-of-society action plans and a strong prevention approach,” said Mr. Guterres. 

“The United Nations Road Safety Conventions and Fund help countries strengthen national systems and infrastructure. I urge Member States and donors to support these efforts and prevent further tragedies.”

Saving young lives 

Meanwhile, a UN-backed global campaign aims to prevent more boys and girls from dying in traffic accidents. 

One person dies on the road every 24 seconds across the world, while 500 children die on roads globally every 24 hours, according to the UN Road Safety Fund (UNRSF), announcing the second edition of the #moments2live4 campaign.

It was launched on Sunday, which also marked World Children’s Day in addition to the World Day of Remembrance for Road Traffic Victims. 

Poorer nations affected 

UNRSF is a global partnership striving to help halve road deaths and injuries in low- and middle-income countries, where a staggering 93 per cent of fatal crashes occur each year. 

The Fund has worked towards the adoption of region-wide safer vehicle regulations in West Africa, as well as initiatives on the safety of pedestrians and cyclists, among other activities. 

The #moments2live4 campaign seeks to raise awareness about the global road safety crisis, which is hitting children over five the hardest, and to support the Fund’s $40 million replenishment target. 

Awareness and empowerment 

Nneka Henry, the UNRSF Head, emphasized that awareness is the first step towards addressing the global road safety challenge. 

“Billions of everyday road users, thousands of corporations and over 100 governments currently sit on the side lines of inaction, largely unaware of the far-reaching dangers for our most vulnerable road users – our children. This campaign is intended to empower everyone with knowledge about how to help keep children safe on the roads,” she said.  

The #moments2live4 global campaign will feature supporters, ranging from race car drivers, entertainers, world-class athletes, and leaders from UN agencies.  

It will run for 10 weeks and conclude on the International Day of Education, on 24 January.  

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WHO convenes experts to identify new pathogens that could spark pandemics — Global Issues

WHO is convening over 300 scientists who will consider the evidence on over 25 virus families and bacteria, as well as “Disease X”, which indicates an unknown pathogen that could cause a serious international epidemic. 

The process began on Friday and will guide global investment, and research and development (R&D), especially in vaccines, tests, and treatments. 

Essential for quick response 

The priority pathogens list was first published in 2017 and includes COVID-19, Ebola virus disease, Lassa fever, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Rift Valley fever, Zika, and “Disease X”. 

“Targeting priority pathogens and virus families for research and development of countermeasures is essential for a fast and effective epidemic and pandemic response”, said Dr. Michael Ryan, Executive Director of WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme. 

“Without significant R&D investments prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, it would not have been possible to have safe and effective vaccines developed in record time”, he added. 

Roadmap for research 

The experts will recommend a list of priority pathogens that need further research and investment.  

The process will include both scientific and public health criteria, as well as criteria related to socioeconomic impact, access, and equity. 

R&D roadmaps will be developed for those pathogens identified as priority, laying out knowledge gaps and areas for research. 

Desired specifications for vaccines, treatments and diagnostic tests will also be determined, where relevant. 

Efforts will also be made to map, compile and facilitate clinical trials to develop these tools. 

The revised list is expected to be published in early 2023. 

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Global intellectual property filings reached new records in 2021: WIPO — Global Issues

According to the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), despite the disruption of the coronavirus pandemic, this bucked previous economic downturn trends.

Latest data shows “continued and sustained growth” in intellectual property filings, “driven largely by increases from Asia, with other regions also trending mostly upward”, said WIPO Director General Daren Tang. 

“IP filing strength during the pandemic showed that people across the world continued to innovate and create despite the economic and social disruptions caused by the pandemic”, he added.

Asia major

Data published in WIPO’s latest World Intellectual Property Indicators report indicates that innovators filed 3.4 million patent applications globally last year, which was up 3.6 per cent from 2020 – with Asia driving more than two-thirds of requests.

Up by 5.5 per cent, China and India showed strong growth in local patent filings along with South Korea, which jumped 2.5 per cent.

In the United States, patent filing dropped by 1.2 per cent, in Japan by 1.7 per cent and in Germany by 3.9 per cent, last year.

“Most countries registered increases in trademark filing activity in 2021, with 18.1 million trademark class counts worldwide in 2021, up 5.5 per cent, on 2020”, the Geneva-based agency explained.

Post-pandemic boom

WIPO also noted that the growth in registering new brands coincided with a boom in entrepreneurial activity and venture capital deals that was prompted by the COVID-19 disruption.

“Industrial design filing activity rose by 9.2 per cent,” WIPO’s report said, with the largest growth in designs also from Asia.

Amid an uncertain geopolitical outlook and unresolved problems relating to the climate crisis, the WIPO Director General argued that intellectual property resilience “should not be taken for granted”.

“Another economic downturn is looming and geopolitical tensions have increased”, he warned. 

Mr. Tang insisted that challenges including climate change and ensuring the success of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SGDs) means that “we have to continue supporting innovators and creators to use the IP system to bring their ideas to reality, and create the impact that will change our lives for the better”.

WIPO

Worldwide IP Filings Reached New All-Time Highs in 2021, Asia Drives Growth.

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DPRK missile launch ‘latest in a series of alarming activities’ – UN political chief — Global Issues

Citing the DPRK’s official news agency and various government sources, Rosemary DiCarlo told ambassadors that at around 10:15 am local time, the so-called Hwasong-17 missile flew a distance of 1,000 km at an altitude of approximately 6,100 km.   

“It is reportedly the first successful test of the DPRK’s largest and most powerful missile, capable of reaching all of North America”, she stated. 

Scores of launches  

The launch was “the latest in a series of alarming activities” related to North Korea’s nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programmes, Ms. DiCarlo pointed out. 

She noted that it has conducted over 60 launches using ballistic missile technology this year, two of which involved ballistic missiles characterised by the DPRK as intermediate-range, and three as intercontinental-range.   

Other launches included shorter-range missiles using ballistic technology and other systems, which the DPRK has stated are to be utilized as so-called “tactical” nuclear weapons.   

This year it has also carried out launches using ballistic missile technology to test so-called hypersonic weapons and satellite systems, continued the senior UN official. 

Moreover, the DPRK did not issue airspace or maritime safety notifications for any of these launches.   

“Unannounced launches represent a serious risk to international civil aviation and maritime traffic”, she underscored.  

Desist and comply 

The Secretary-General had strongly condemned the DPRK’s latest intercontinental ballistic missile launch – the second one this month, Ms. DiCarlo said.   

North Korea’s continued pursuit of its nuclear weapons programme and ballistic missiles launches “blatantly violate” relevant Security Council resolutions and have significantly escalated tensions.   

She reiterated calls on the DPRK to “desist from taking further provocative actions and to fully comply with its international obligations under relevant Security Council resolutions”.  

Nuclear concerns 

The DPRK also appears to be actively pursuing its nuclear programme, the UN political chief warned. 

She quoted comments made last Wednesday by the head of the UN nuclear watchdog, IAEA, who said that the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site “remains prepared to support a nuclear test”.  

Furthermore, IAEA has continued to observe activity at the site and construction activities at the Yongbyon nuclear facilities, as well as indications that the 5-megawatt nuclear reactor was operating.  

Peninsula divided 

“This is the tenth time the Council has met to discuss the DPRK in 2022, yet the situation on the Korean Peninsula continues to head in the wrong direction”, asserted the DPPA chief.  

Repeated missile launches, confrontational rhetoric, and military exercises contribute to “a negative action-reaction cycle” as tensions continue to increase, with “no off-ramps in sight”, she added.   

UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe

Rosemary DiCarlo, Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, briefs the UN Security Council meeting on Non-proliferation and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

And the COVID-19 pandemic is complicating diplomacy by impeding official and unofficial contacts with the DPRK. 

“It is critical to de-escalate and reduce tensions”, said Ms. DiCarlo, flagging the need to enhance communication, “particularly military to military, to lower the risk of miscalculation”. 

She echoed the UN chief in urging the DPRK to “take immediate steps to resume dialogue” for sustainable peace and complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and conveyed these serious concerns to the DPRK’s UN Ambassador when they met on 9 November.  

Noting that Security Council unity is “critical”, and a diplomatic solution “the only way forward”, she encouraged the ambassadors to “urge the DPRK to refrain from carrying out further launches using ballistic missile technology or a seventh nuclear test”.   

Humanitarian concerns 

In closing, Ms. DiCarlo flagged concerns surrounding the country’s humanitarian situation.   

“The United Nations is ready to assist the DPRK in addressing medical and humanitarian needs, including those related to the COVID-19 pandemic”, she said.   

“To allow for a timely and effective response, we reiterate our call for the unimpeded entry of international staff and humanitarian supplies”.   

Click here to watch the meeting in its entirety.

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US to Fight Sexual Abuse in International Organizations — Global Issues

  • by Thalif Deen (united nations)
  • Inter Press Service

UNITED NATIONS, Nov 21 (IPS) – The United States, which recently laid down a set of guidelines to monitor sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) by US citizens in international organizations, including the United Nations and its agencies worldwide, has implicitly accused the UN of faltering on a high-profile case last month.

The U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York sentenced Karim Elkorany, an American citizen and a former UN employee, to 15 years in prison for the drugging and sexual assault of one victim and making false statements to cover up another sexual assault.

As part of the federal investigation, Elkorany admitted that he had drugged and/or sexually assaulted 17 additional victims between 2002 and 2016.

Ambassador Chris Lu, U.S. Representative for UN Management and Reform at the US Mission to the United Nations, said that consistent with State Department policies, “we have referred this matter to the Office of Inspector General for review to ensure a culture of accountability”

“We also call on the United Nations to undertake a similar review that includes a comprehensive examination of the handling of any sexual exploitation and abuse or sexual harassment (SEAH) allegations against Mr. Elkorany during his employment with the United Nations”.

The investigation, he said, should examine whether UN officials were aware of Elkorany’s misconduct and failed to take appropriate action, including ensuring the availability and accessibility of assistance to survivors.

In line with the “Principles on Protection from Sexual Exploitation and Abuse and Sexual Harassment (SEAH) for U.S. Government Engagement with International Organizations”, the United States said it is committed to preventing and responding to sexual exploitation and abuse and sexual harassment in the UN system.

“We strongly support the United Nations’ zero tolerance policy and the Secretary-General’s efforts to strengthen its implementation”.

“Protection from SEAH is the responsibility of leadership and managers at every level who have a duty to take action in response to allegations of SEAH and ensure implementation of governance policies and delivery of services in a manner that respects the rights and dignity of all personnel and communities served by our institutions.”

The critical stand against the UN comes amid “16 Days of Activism against Gender-Based Violence”, beginning November 25, and billed as an opportunity to call for prevention and elimination of violence against women and girls.

Meanwhile, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has established a Chief Executive Board Task Force to review policies to prevent sexual harassment and develop improved and consistent approaches across the UN, including a review of how the UN defines sexual harassment.

Tsitsi Matekaire, the Global Lead on Equality Now’s End Sexual Exploitation Programme based in the UK, told IPS the publication of these principles by the US government is a welcome development.

They echo similar positive initiatives by countries such as Australia and the UK, which have introduced measures following highly publicized scandals in recent years within the international aid sector.

“It is good to see more organizations introducing and extending safeguarding policies, but words must be underpinned by effective action and we need more evidence about the impact of these commitments. It is no good having protection strategies and procedures in place if they are not being well implemented and abuse continues unchecked”, said Matekaire.

“We don’t know the true scale of the problem, but we do know from frequent revelations that sexual harassment, sexual exploitation and abuse remain a widespread problem inside the United Nations system and within other international development organizations”.

In September 2022, she pointed out, a media investigation disclosed sexual abuse by humanitarian workers at an UN-run camp in South Sudan. It was reported that abuse occurred “on a daily basis” over a number of years and aid officials were aware as early as 2015.

Although the UN did take some action, it faced criticism for failing to introduce effective strategies to end the problem, and an external review cited a lack of victim support, she noted.

“The UN and all international development agencies must enforce a zero-tolerance approach to sexual abuse and harassment directed at, and perpetrated by, staff. This must apply to everyone, regardless of what level their position is”.

“All staff should receive training, with policies and procedures well communicated. Reports of abuse should be taken seriously, investigations carried out swiftly and effectively, and perpetrators held fully to account”.

She also said that aid workers and other whistle-blowers need to be well protected so they are able to disclose allegations of abuses without fear of negative repercussions, including retaliation or sidelining.

And safeguarding and reporting mechanisms need to ensure sexual predators are not able to evade punishment or move to different jobs where they are able to commit further offences.”

And here is the link to the article about the South Sudan story referenced above.

Meanwhile, a Reuters report of November 1 said the World Health Organization (WHO) has suspended a senior manager at its Geneva headquarters after a British doctor publicly alleged she was sexually assaulted at a health conference last month, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

Rosie James, a 26-year-old junior doctor working for England’s National Health Service tweeted last month that the assault occurred at the World Health Summit in Berlin. The event, which took place from Oct. 16-18, was jointly organized by the WHO. James said at the time that she planned to report the incident.

“The alleged perpetrator is on leave and the investigation is on-going,” a WHO spokesperson said in an emailed response to Reuters about James’s statements, without naming him.

The set of “Government Engagement Principles on Protection from Sexual Exploitation Abuse and Sexual Harassment within International Organizations, laid down by the US includes six key components:

Zero Tolerance

The United States will continue to promote the full implementation of policies of zero tolerance for sexual exploitation and abuse and sexual harassment, including zero tolerance for inaction in response to allegations, across the United Nations and other International Organizations.

This includes support for policies that prioritize prevention and mitigation efforts, monitor the effectiveness of such efforts, ensure safe access to confidential SEAH reporting mechanisms and appropriate survivor support, and embed survivor-centered principles across all actions in response to reported allegations – including investigations.

The United States recognizes that an absence of reporting does not mean incidents are not being perpetrated, nor does it indicate that zero tolerance policies are being fully implemented.

A Survivor-centered Approach

The United States expects all allegations or incidents of sexual exploitation and abuse and sexual harassment to be reviewed and addressed, while respecting principles of due process.

In its engagement with the United Nations and other International Organizations, the United States will continue to advocate for the use of survivor-centered principles and standards – an approach that recognizes and empowers survivors as individuals with agency and unique needs, safeguarding their dignity and wellbeing.

Prevention and Risk Mitigation

The United States will work with the United Nations and other International Organizations to institutionalize prevention and mitigation measures that go beyond basic awareness-raising, training, capacity-building or dissemination of codes of conduct, and include a commitment to promote adequate funding, dedicated technical staff, and meaningful risk analysis and mitigation.

The United States will hold the United Nations and other International Organizations to the highest standard, including from the onset of a crisis, conflict or emergency, to mitigate against such risk, especially with highly vulnerable populations.

Accountability and Transparency

The United States expects the leadership of the United Nations and other International Organizations to take meaningful action to support accountability and transparency through, among others, the following: the conduct of timely and survivor-centered investigations; response efforts driven by the needs, experiences, and resiliencies of those most at risk of SEAH; clear reporting and response systems, including to inform Member States of allegations or incidents; and accountability measures, including termination of employment or involvement of law enforcement, as needed.

Organizational Culture Change

The United States will work to advocate for the development by the United Nations and other International Organizations of evidence-based metrics and standards of practice in the implementation of zero tolerance policies, promote holistic approaches, empower women and girls, and reinforce leadership and organizational accountability.

Policies, statements, and training are essential, but alone are insufficient to produce lasting positive change. Systems-level change requires a shift in organizational culture, behavior, and the underlying processes and mechanisms to deliver assistance and promote internal accountability.

Empowerment of Local Communities

The United States will prioritize, in partnership with the leadership of the United Nations and other International Organizations, the critical importance of locally-led efforts, particularly those led by women and girls, who, when meaningfully supported and engaged, can inform the measures that may mitigate risks and promote safer foreign assistance programming.

IPS UN Bureau Report


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© Inter Press Service (2022) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service



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A Looming Debt Crisis is Threatening Global Health Security. It is time to Drop the Debt — Global Issues

  • Opinion by Jaime Atienza, Charles Birungi (geneva)
  • Inter Press Service

GENEVA, Nov 21 (IPS) – In this moment of profound challenge in international relations, it was understandable that the conclusion of the G20 meeting left leaders feeling relieved that the meeting took place without a breakdown. Leaders were justifiably proud too of important steps forward they made including the launch of the new pandemics fund.

But G20 leaders did not manage to resolve the fiscal crisis that threatens many low-and middle-income countries, and which risks undermining global health security because it is driving countries to slash investments in essential health services.

As the world approaches the end of 2022, no resolution mechanism to properly resolve the debt crisis has been established by either the IMF or the G20. In 24 months, the “G20 common framework” has delivered a debt relief agreement for just one country, Chad.

UNAIDS report “A pandemic triad” shows how growing debt burdens across developing countries are impairing their ability to fight and end AIDS and COVID, and their readiness for future pandemics. Half of the low-income countries in Africa are already in debt distress or at high risk of being so.

Across the world, the 73 countries which are eligible for the Debt Service Suspension Initiative have been recorded as spending on average four times as much on debt servicing as they have been able to invest in the health of their people. Only 43 of those countries have seen even a temporary suspension – totalling less than 10% the money they continued to pay back.

Two thirds of people living with HIV are in countries that received absolutely no support from the Debt Service Suspension Initiative at all during the critical 2020-2021 period. The seven Debt Service Suspension Initiative eligible countries with the largest population of people living with HIV – Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia – saw their public debt levels grow from 29% in 2011 to 74% in 2020.

According to the World Bank, “interest payments will constrain the capacity of low-income countries to spend on health, on average by 7%, and in lower middle-income countries by 10%, in 2027.”

110 out of 177 countries will see a drop or stagnation in their health spending capacity and are not set to be able to achieve pre-COVID spending levels by 2027.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, deficits increased worldwide, and debt accumulated much faster than they did in the early years of other recessions including the Great Depression and the Global Financial Crisis. The scale is comparable only to the twentieth century’s two world wars.

Government expenditure cuts are expected to take place across 139 countries in the coming years. In the case of the 73 countries that were eligible to the Debt Service Suspension Initiative, primary expenditures are expected to decline an average of 2.8% of GDP between 2020 and 2026.

This comes at a moment when economic forecasts have been downgraded by the IMF for a fourth time in a year. Austerity will mean dangerous reductions in health expenditure. To even restrain the damage will require a systemic reprioritization of public resources towards health systems.

There is a direct correlation between deepening fiscal problems and worsening health outcomes.

The COVID-19 crisis is dragging on. The impacts of the war in Ukraine on the global economy are making things worse. The HIV response is in danger, with the promise to end AIDS by 2030 under threat.

The world is not prepared today for the pandemics of to come. The international response to resolve the health financing crisis is nowhere close enough. Even as developing countries struggle with the debt crisis, the Ukraine war has led several donors to cut aid.

But there is a way out. With bold action, the health and development financing crisis can be overcome. Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley’s Bridgetown Agenda for action on debt, expansion of multilateral finance and effective SDR reallocation sets out the order of magnitude of response required.

There is an urgent need for debt cancellation for countries in fiscal distress, and for an effective and fast mechanism to deal with debt restructuring at scale. Health and education must be central considerations in debt negotiations.

Vital too is an expansion of the use of existing Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from high income countries for investments in lower income countries of at least twice the 100 billion committed.

The G20 leaders’ work has not ended in Bali. The consequences of an unresolved debt crisis, and the lack of additional resources, would be disastrous for lives, livelihoods and health security. We don’t have time. No one is safe until everyone is safe.

Jaime Atienza is the Director of Equitable Financing at UNAIDS. Charles Birungi is the Senior HIV Economics, Finance and Policy Advisor.

IPS UN Bureau


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© Inter Press Service (2022) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service



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Loss and Damage Fund Saves COP27 from the Abyss — Global Issues

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, chair of COP27, reads the nine-page Sharm El Sheikh Implementation Plan, the document that concluded the climate summit on Sunday Nov. 20, to an exhausted audience after tough and lengthy negotiations that finally reached an agreement to create a fund for loss and damage, a demand of the global South. CREDIT: Kiara Worth/UN
  • by Daniel Gutman (sharm el sheikh)
  • Inter Press Service

SHARM EL SHEIKh, Nov 20 (IPS) – They were on the brink of shipwreck and did not leave happy, but did feel satisfied that they got the best they could. The countries of the global South achieved something decisive at COP27: the creation of a special fund to address the damage and loss caused by climate change in the most vulnerable nations.

The fund, according to the Sharm El Sheikh Implementation Plan, the official document approved at dawn on Sunday Nov. 20 in this Egyptian city, should enable “rehabilitation, recovery and reconstruction” following extreme weather events in these vulnerable countries.

Decisions on who will provide the money, which countries will benefit and how it will be disbursed were left pending for a special committee to define. But the fund was approved despite the fact that the issue was not even on the official agenda of the summit negotiations, although it was at the center of the public debate before the conference itself.

“We are satisfied that the developed countries have accepted the need to create the Fund. Of course, there is much to discuss for implementation, but it was difficult to ask for more at this COP,” Ulises Lovera, Paraguay’s climate change director, told IPS, weary from a longer-than-expected negotiation, early Sunday morning at the Sharm El Sheikh airport.

“This COP has taken an important step towards justice. I welcome the decision to establish a loss and damage fund and to operationalize it in the coming period,” said U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres. He also described as an achievement that a “red line” was not crossed, that would take the rise in global temperature above the 1.5-degree limit.

More than 35,000 people from nearly 200 countries participated in the 27th Conference of the Parties (COP27) on Climate Change in Sharm El Sheikh, an Egyptian seaside resort on the Red Sea, where the critical dimension of global warming in the different regions of the world was on display, sometimes dramatically.

Practically everything that has to do with the future of the modes of production and life of humanity – starting with energy and food – was discussed at a mega-event that far exceeded the official delegations of the countries and the great leaders present, such as U.S. President Joe Biden and the Brazilian president-elect, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Hundreds of social organizations, international agencies and private sector stakeholders came here to showcase their work, seek funding, forge alliances, try to influence negotiations, defend their interests or simply be on a stage that seemed to provide a space for all kinds of initiatives and businesses.

At the gigantic Sharm El Sheikh International Convention Center there was also a global fair with non-stop activities from morning to night in the various pavilions, in stands with auditoriums of between 20 and 200 seats, where there was a flurried program of presentations, lectures and debates, not to mention the more or less crowded demonstrations of activists outside the venue.

In addition, government delegates negotiated on the crux of the summit: how to move forward with the implementation of the Paris Agreement, which at COP21 in 2015 set global climate change mitigation and adaptation targets.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres (3rd-R) walks hurriedly through the Sharm El Sheikh Convention Center during the last intense hours of the COP27 negotiations, when there were moments when it seemed that there would be no agreement and the climate summit would end in failure. CREDIT: Daniel Gutman/IPS

On the brink of failure

Once again, the nine-page Sharm El Sheikh Implementation Plan did not include in any of its pages a reference to the need to abandon fossil fuels, but only coal.

The document was the result of a negotiation that should have ended on Friday Nov. 18, but dragged on till Sunday, as usually happens at COPs. What was different on this occasion was a very tough discussion and threats of a walkout by some negotiators, including those of the European Union.

But in the end, the goal of limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius, established in the Paris Agreement, was maintained, although several countries tried to make it more flexible up to 2.0 degrees, which would have been a setback with dramatic effects for the planet and humanity, according to experts and climate activists.

“Rapid, deep and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions (are) required – lowering global net greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent by 2030 relative to the 2019 level – to limit global warming to 1.5°C target,” reads the text, although no mention is made of oil and gas, the fossil fuels most responsible for those emissions, in one of the usual COP compromises, since agreements are reached by consensus.

The Bolivian delegation in Sharm El Sheikh, which included officials as well as leaders of indigenous communities from the South American country, take part in a meeting with journalists at COP27 to demand more ambitious action. CREDIT: Daniel Gutman/IPS

The priorities of the South

Developing countries, however, focused throughout the COP on the Loss and Damage Fund and other financing mechanisms to address the impacts of rising temperatures and mitigation actions.

“We need financing because we cannot deal with the environmental crisis alone. That is why we are asking that, in order to solve the problem they have caused, the rich nations take responsibility,” Diego Pacheco, head of the Bolivian delegation to Sharm El Sheikh, told IPS.

Environmental organizations, which showed their power in Egypt with the presence of thousands of activists, also lobbied throughout COP27 for greater commitments, including mitigation actions.

“This conference cannot be considered an implementation conference because there is no implementation without phasing out all fossil fuels,” the main cause of the climate crisis, said Zeina Khalil Hajj of the international environmental organization 350.org.

“Together for implementation” was precisely the slogan of COP27, calling for a shift from commitments to action.

“A text that does not stop fossil fuel expansion, that does not provide progress from the already weak Glasgow Pact (from COP26) makes a mockery of the millions of people living with the impacts of climate change,” said Khalil Hajj, head of global campaigning at 350.org.

One of the demonstrations by climate activists at COP27 held in Egypt Nov. 6-20, demanding more ambitious climate action by governments, as well as greater justice and equity in tackling the climate crisis. CREDIT: Busani Bafana/IPS

The crises that came together

Humanity – as recognized by the States Parties in the final document – is living through a dramatic time.

It faces a number of overlapping crises: food, energy, geopolitical, financial and economic, combined with more frequent natural disasters due to climate change. And developing nations are hit especially hard.

The demand for financing voiced by countries of the global South thus takes on greater relevance.

Cecilia Nicolini, Argentina’s climate change secretary, told IPS that it is the industrialized countries, because of their greater responsibility for climate change, that should finance developing countries, and lamented that “the problem is that the rules are made by the powerful.”

However, 80 percent of the money now being spent worldwide on climate change action is invested in the developed world, according to the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the world’s largest funder of climate action, which has contributed 121 billion dollars to 163 countries over the past 30 years, according to its own figures.

In this context, the issue of Loss and Damage goes one step further than adaptation to climate change, because it involves reparations for the specific impacts of climate change that have already occurred, such as destruction caused by droughts, floods or forest fires.

“Those who are bearing the burden of climate change are the most vulnerable households and communities. That is why the Loss and Damage Fund must be established without delay, with new funds coming from developed countries,” said Javier Canal Albán, Colombia’s vice minister of environmental land planning.

“It is a moral and climate justice imperative,” added Canal Albán, who spoke at a press conference on behalf of AILAC, a negotiating bloc that brings together several Latin American and Caribbean countries.

But the text of the outcome document itself acknowledges that there is a widening gap between what developing countries need and what they actually receive.

The financing needs of these countries for climate action until 2030 were estimated at 5.6 trillion dollars, but developed countries – as the document recognized – have not even fulfilled their commitment to provide 100 billion dollars per year, committed since 2009, at COP15 in Copenhagen, and ratified in 2015, at COP21 which adopted the Paris Agreement.

It was the absence of any reference to the need to accelerate the move away from oil and natural gas that frustrated several of the leaders at the COP. “We believe that if we don’t phase out fossil fuels there will be no Fund that can pay for the loss and damage caused by climate change,” Susana Muhamad, Colombia’s environment minister, who was at the two-week conference in Sharm El Sheikh held Nov. 6-20, told IPS.

“We have to put the victims first in order to make an orderly and just transition,” she said, expressing the sentiments of the governments and societies of the South at COP27.

© Inter Press Service (2022) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

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Canada sanctions ex-Haiti president and prime ministers

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DJERBA, Tunisia — Canada has expanded its economic sanctions freezing the Canadian assets of Haitian political elites to include former president Michel Martelly and former prime ministers Laurent Lamothe and Jean-Henry Céant.

Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly accused the trio this weekend of helping gangs undermine Haiti’s current government and called on international partners to follow Canada’s lead. She made the announcement at a two-day Francophonie summit in Tunisia.

The Caribbean country is paralyzed by gang warfare.

“Our goal is to make sure that these people that are profiting from the violence, that are part of a corrupted system, are facing accountability,” she said.

Haitian Foreign Affairs Minister Jean Victor Généus said the new sanctions put real consequences on those causing a “nightmare” in his country.

“These sanctions will have a dissuasive impact,” he said in French, while seated Saturday between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Joly.

Haiti’s government has asked for an international military intervention to combat gangs who have strangled access to fuel and critical supplies in the middle of the outbreak. Canadian military intervention in Haiti can’t happen unless all political parties in the troubled nation agree to it, Trudeau said Sunday.

The country is seeing rising violence and increasingly brazen attacks by Haitian gangs that have grown more powerful since the July 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. The chaos has spurred on a huge migratory exodus from the island.

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