Tag: Joseph Chamie

The Challenges of High Fertility, Rapidly Growing Populations — Global Issues

Promoting children’s primary and secondary education, especially for girls, will contribute significantly to development efforts as well as facilitate the demographic transition. Credit: Joyce Chimbi/IPS
  • Opinion by Joseph Chamie (portland, usa)
  • Inter Press Service

PORTLAND, USA, Aug 22 (IPS) – While most countries in the world have made the transition from high to low rates of deaths and births, many countries, largely in Africa, face the challenges of high fertility rates that are resulting in rapidly growing populations.

In 2020 thirty-six countries, of which thirty are among the United Nations’ least developed countries, had fertility rates of more than four births per woman (Chart 1). The combined populations of those three dozen countries in 2020 amounted to nearly 1 billion people, or approximately 12 percent of the world’s total population of nearly 8 billion.

Countries with Total Fertility Rates of Four or More Births per Woman: 2020 - Many countries, largely in Africa, face the challenges of high fertility rates that are resulting in rapidly growing populations
Source: United Nations. * Least developed country.

By 2058 when the world’s population is projected to reach 10 billion, the combined populations of those thirty-six high fertility countries are expected to more than double to more than 2 billion. Their population total will represent approximately 22 percent of the world’s projected population in 2058.

Among the high fertility countries, ten of them, all least developed nations except Nigeria, had rates that were five or more births per woman in 2020. Furthermore, half of those countries had fertility rates of six or more births per woman. The highest rate was Niger’s at nearly seven births per woman (Figure 1).

Source: United Nations. * Least developed country.

The high fertility rates of those ten countries are contributing to the rapid growth of their populations. For example, the populations of all of those ten countries are projected to at least double by 2058. Consequently, the combined populations of those ten countries are expected to increase from 419 million in 2020 to 970 million by 2058, or from about 5 percent of the world’s population to 10 percent.

The largest population among those ten countries is Nigeria. Its population is expected to increase from 208 million in 2020 to 419 million by 2058. As a result of that rapid demographic growth, Nigeria is projected to move from the world’s seventh largest population in 2020 to the third largest by midcentury.

In addition, the population of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is expected to nearly triple between 2020 and 2058, increasing from 93 million to 257 million. However, among the thirty-six high fertility countries, Niger is expected to experience the most rapid demographic growth over the next several decades. Niger’s population of 24 million in 2020 is projected to more than triple to 83 million by 2058.

An important consequence of the high fertility rates is a young age structure. Half or more of the populations of the top ten fertility countries are children below the age of eighteen years. Moreover, in five of those countries the median age of the population is 15 years or less (Figure 2).

Source: United Nations. * Least developed country.

The thirty-six rapidly growing, young populations are facing numerous challenges. In addition to confronting high levels of poverty, those countries are facing serious difficulties in reducing hunger, providing basic education, offering decent work and employment opportunities, promoting women’s rights, providing healthcare, and reducing inequalities. Furthermore, many of them are among the countries with the lowest Human Development Index.

In some of those countries, the majority of the adult population is illiterate. For example, the proportion illiterate is more than 60 percent of the adult population in Benin, Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic, Chad, Guinea, Mali, Niger, and South Sudan.

In addition, various studies report that Africa is likely to be the most vulnerable continent to climate change impacts. The effects are particularly pronounced in sub-Saharan countries due to temperature increases, changes in rainfall patterns, extreme weather patterns, and increasing natural disasters. For many of the rapidly growing countries, those effects already pose serious risks to water and food systems, public health, agriculture, employment, socio-economic development, and population displacement.

The three dozen rapidly growing populations are not on track to meet Sustainable Development Goal 2 to end hunger and ensure access to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round, and to end all forms of malnutrition. Since 2012 the number of undernourished people in drought-prone sub-Saharan African countries has increased by 46 percent.

In some of the high fertility African countries, the proportions suffering from undernourishment are high. For example, the proportion of Somalia’s population undernourished is 60 percent, followed by the Central African Republic at 48 percent, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo at 42 percent.

Climate change is also contributing to mass displacement of people in those countries due to heatwaves, droughts, and failed crops. Looking for relief from difficult living conditions, many move from rural areas to large cities.

In addition, large numbers of men and women in those rapidly growing countries are seeking to migrate both legally and illegally to other countries. Their preferred destinations are the countries of North America and Europe.

For example, in the most populous African country, Nigeria, about half of its population of more than 200 million people would like to migrate to another country. Even higher proportions wanting to resettle abroad are the populations of Sierra Leone and Liberia, 71 and 66 percent, respectively.

It’s abundantly clear that the three-dozen high fertility, rapidly growing populations are facing formidable economic, social, and environmental challenges. There are no simple and quick remedies to address those many challenges, which are expected to become more problematic in the coming decades.

However, it is certainly the case that many of those rapidly growing populations would benefit from international assistance, financial aid, and technical expertise. Contributions from the international community, aid agencies, and financial institutions would facilitate economic development, employment opportunities, and social progress as well as alleviate hunger, malnutrition, and poverty in those countries.

An important step in addressing those development challenges is to expediate the demographic transition in those countries, which would result in lower rates of population growth. Simply stated, development efforts in the rapidly growing populations should emphasize transitioning from high rates of fertility to low rates.

Finally, as has been the case in regions worldwide, promoting children’s primary and secondary education, especially for girls, will contribute significantly to development efforts as well as facilitate the demographic transition. Those efforts need to be reinforced with the provision of basic health care, including the widespread availability of family planning information, methods, and services.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Births, Deaths, Migrations and Other Important Population Matters.”

© Inter Press Service (2022) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

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Time for Bold Action — Global Issues

Due to the increasingly visible consequences of climate change, governments are finding it difficult to downplay the warnings of scientists. Credit: Jorge Luis Baños/IPS
  • Opinion by Joseph Chamie (portland, usa)
  • Inter Press Service

PORTLAND, USA, Aug 10 (IPS) – With climate change bringing about increasing numbers of human deaths and untold suffering, and rising economic, social, and environmental consequences worldwide, it’s time for governments to take bold action to address the climate change emergency.

Climate scientists have warned that there is only a dozen years for global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5 Celsius. Beyond that level, even half a degree, will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat, and poverty for hundreds of millions of people.

In November the 27th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP27) to the UN Framework Convention to Climate Change is scheduled to take place in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. Government representatives from some 200 countries and other parties will focus on securing the 1.5°C goal and adapting to the negative impacts of climate change through the implementation of the Paris Agreement provisions.

At the time of COP27, world population is expected to reach 8,000,000,000. That figure is an increase of more than 2 billion humans on the planet since the first COP conference held in Berlin, Germany, in 1995.

The 8 billion milestone is double the size of world population in 1974 and quadruple its size in 1927. With the growth of the world’s population, annual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry have grown enormously over the past century, increasing more than nine-fold since 1927 and doubling since 1974 (Figure 1).

Source: United Nations and Our World in Data. *Projected figures.

The growth of world population has slowed down from its peak levels in the second half of the 20th century. It continues to increase, currently at about 70 million annually and projected to reach 9 billion by 2037 and 10 billion by 2058.

If annual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry continue to increase as they have during the past several decades, their annual level of emissions in 2058 when the world’s population is expected to reach 10 billion would be more than 50 percent higher than it is today, or approximately 60 billion tonnes.

Up until relatively recently, warnings of a climate change emergency by thousands of scientists have been downplayed by most governments. Frustrated by government responses, many scientists are increasingly feeling like climate change Cassandras.

Warnings that rising carbon emissions are dangerously heating the Earth have been clearly conveyed to governments. In particular, scientists have emphasized that the burning of fossil fuels is already heating up the planet faster than anything the world has seen in 2,000 years.

In 2020 five countries produced approximately 60 percent of the world’s annual CO2 emissions. In first place was China with nearly one-third of the annual CO2 emissions. China also has the greatest number of coal-fired power stations of any country in 2022, or approximately 1,110 operational stations (Figure 2).

Source: Our World in Data.

The United States is in second place accounting for 14 percent of the annual CO2 emissions in 2020. The percentages for the other three countries, India, Russia, and Japan, were 7, 5 and 3 percent, respectively

In addition to warnings of a climate change emergency, scientists have spelled out some of the likely consequences for life on the planet if the increase in global warming were to exceed 1.5 Celsius (Table 1).

Source: Job One for Humanity.

Those likely consequences include warmer temperatures with increased frequency, intensity, and duration, impacting oceans, seas levels, coral reefs, fish levels, glaciers and ice and snow cover. Also, changes in patterns and amount of rainfall are expected to result in increased droughts and desertification as well as flooding.

Climate change’s worsening of air and water quality is expected to contribute to the spread of certain diseases and human illnesses accompanied by increased malnourishment, hunger, and mortality, as well as the deteriorating ecosystems impacting numerous plant and animal species. Climate change will also likely contribute to the increased displacement of people as well as illegal migration as millions of men, women, and children seek to escape the consequences of global warming and environmental degradation.

Due to the increasingly visible consequences of climate change, governments are finding it difficult to downplay the warnings of scientists. Among the weather consequences of the climate change emergency are worldwide record-breaking high temperatures as well as droughts, floods, wildfires, storms, and hurricanes.

Global surveys also report that the majority of the world’s population is worried about climate change. In January 2021, for example, the global climate survey by the United Nations Development Programme across 50 countries found that nearly two-thirds of the respondents consider climate change as an emergency and represents a clear call for governments to take the needed action to address it.

Various measures have been recommended to address the climate change emergency. Among those measures are stabilizing or reducing the size of human populations, eliminating the use of fossil fuels, moving to renewable energies, reducing air pollutants, restoring ecosystems, shifting from meat to mainly plant based diets, and transitioning to sustainable GDP growth (Table 2).

Source: International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The upcoming November COP27 conference in Egypt is expected to follow the usual pattern of previous sessions with an adoption of a negotiated final report. However, that outcome is unlikely to be sufficient to achieve the internationally established goal of limiting the increase in global warming to a maximum of 1.5 Celsius.

Despite more than two dozen annual COP sessions, various international agreements, and enumerated goals, a binding international agreement to address the climate change emergency is lacking. In addition, an authority that would impose climate change policies is not likely to be established, particularly given the supremacy of national sovereignty.

Nevertheless, progress to address climate change has been achieved over the past several decades. The international community of nations adopted the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992, the Kyoto Protocol in 2005, and the Paris Agreement in 2015.

Also, governments have agreed on the science behind climate change, acknowledged the likely consequences of inaction, and have set emission reduction pledges to slow down CO2 emissions. Recently adopted policies have enhanced energy efficiency, slowed deforestation rates, and accelerated the use of renewable energy.

In addition, scores of governments are adopting additional commitments to address climate change. The United States, for example, recently passed historic legislation aimed at addressing climate change and clean energy that includes a budget of U.S. $369 billion.

As stated above, climate scientists have warned that there is only a dozen years for global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5 Celsius. Given that 12-year window to address the global warming goal, there is little time to waste.

It is time for governments, especially the major contributors to global warming, to implement bold actions to address the climate change emergency.

* Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Births, Deaths, Migrations and Other Important Population Matters.”

© Inter Press Service (2022) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

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Androids in Human Populations — Global Issues

TOPIO (“TOSY Ping Pong Playing Robot”) is a bipedal humanoid robot designed to play table tennis against a human being. Photo: Humanrobo. Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.
  • Opinion by Joseph Chamie (portland, usa)
  • Inter Press Service

PORTLAND, USA, Jul 04 (IPS) – It is time for countries, especially those with slow growing and ageing human populations, to welcome androids, i.e., humanoid robots with human-like appearance and behavior, including speech, sight, hearing, mobility, and artificial intelligence.

Androids would not only complement and broaden a country’s labor supply, but they would also increase productivity, lower costs, raise profits, offer instruction, reduce accidents, assist in disasters, and provide safety, policing, firefighting, and security.

The introduction of androids into human societies would be especially beneficial for slow growing and ageing populations. Following the rapid population growth of the 20th century, demographic growth rates are slowing down, and populations are ageing globally.

Whereas world population was growing at an annual rate of 1.3 percent at the start of the 21st century, by midcentury the rate is expected to decline to 0.5 percent. The annual population growth rates of major regions are expected to decline over that period, with Europe’s population growth rate projected to decline to -0.3 percent (Figure 1).

Source: United Nations

With respect to population ageing, countries worldwide are becoming older than ever before. The proportion aged 65 years and older for the world, for example, is expected to more than double during the first half of the 21st century from approximately 7 percent in 2000 to 16 percent by 2050.

Among the major regions, the populations of Europe and Northern America are the most aged. During the first half of the 21st century, their proportions aged 65 years and older are expected to nearly double, reaching 28 and 23 percent by 2050, respectively (Figure 2).

Source: United Nations

Over the past decades various types of androids, or humanoid robots, have appeared in films, books, video games, and futuristic exhibitions. However, technology firms have been comparatively slow in bringing to market the latest research and progress in androids, including robotics, artificial intelligence, conversation, bipedal locomotion, and related technologies.

The only notable exception to the use of androids has been the sex industries. Those firms have jumped ahead with the rapid development of “sexbots”. Those androids are lifelike robots or dolls with humanoid form, body movements, artificial intelligence, hearing, sight, speech, and designed to have sexual relations with humans.

The market for sexbots is believed to be huge, with some convinced they are the future of sex. The realistic looking sexbots have artificial intelligence for simple conversation, are programmed to imitate basic human emotions, and can perform sexual acts with humans.

A recent study in the United States, for example, found that 40 percent of adults would have sex with a sexbot at least once to try it. Men were 21 percent more likely than women to say that they would have sex with a sexbot.

Most people are well accustomed to interacting with artificial intelligence on their cellphones, computers, and other electronic devices. Today most of those communications, which are provided both orally and by text, center on providing directions, information, explanations, purchases, games, music, entertainment, social activities, and various sorts of data.

Like the use of robotics to manufacture goods and provide services, androids could be utilized to perform a wide range of activities and services, including tasks that are boring, repetitive, hazardous, and dangerous. Already robotic devices have driven millions of miles autonomously, participated actively in space exploration, and reduced boredom and injuries to humans by carrying out dull, difficult, and dangerous tasks.

Androids could perform a variety of jobs, such as receptionist, salesclerk, guard, attendant, translator, and informant. Androids could answer basic questions, direct people to offices and individuals, remember names and faces, translate languages, log entry information, make phone calls, assist in rescues, monitor people’s health, provide caregiving, and alert authorities when human intervention is needed.

For example, the android, Nadine, is a receptionist at a Singapore university welcoming visitors and answering questions. The android, Erica, is a newscaster on Japanese television reporting the daily news and events and Sophia is the first android to be granted citizenship by Saudi Arabia.

Androids at a field hospital in Wuhan, China, perform services, measure temperatures, disinfect devices, deliver food and medicine, and entertain patients. And the android, Kime, is a beverage and food server in Spain that in addition to serving food can pour 300 glasses of beer per hour.

In addition to performing routine tasks and providing services, androids could be utilized to reduce feelings of loneliness, which has increased as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

For those individuals suffering serious loneliness, including older persons limited by dementia and illness, androids could offer conversation and also provide companionship to those lacking a partner. Androids could also offer entertainment as well as facilitate social interaction.

Furthermore, the presence and interactions with androids can help to reduce feelings of stress, encourage wellbeing activities, and improve mental functioning. Androids could also monitor human behavior and health status.

Androids can also be available 24/7. Moreover, unlike humans, androids do not become frustrated, impatient, or angry. And as androids are not judgmental, prejudiced, or biased toward human behavior or appearance, people may feel freer to express their true feelings and thoughts.

In addition, androids could assist people with functional limitations. With speech, sight, hearing, location, and movement, androids can aid and help those with limited or lacking certain functions for daily living.

Despite androids potentially being able to contribute and enhance workplaces and households, concerns, fears, and reluctance persist about their use. For example, some are concerned that androids would replace workers as has been the case with the increased use of robotics in manufacturing, especially by the auto industry.

However, while certain jobs will be reduced and workers displaced, employment opportunities are expected to increase in other areas of the economy. For example, while the global number of the robots in manufacturing in 2021 had grown to 126 per 10,000 employees, or nearly double the level in 2015, employment opportunities have continued to expand.

Also, the numbers of robots per 10,000 employees in many advanced countries have reached substantially higher levels, such as 932 for South Korea, 605 for Singapore, 390 for Japan, and 371 for Germany. Nevertheless, demand for labor in those countries remains high and unemployment levels are comparatively low (Figure 3).

Source: World Robotics 2021.

Ethical questions have also been raised concerning the introduction of androids into human societies. For example, given that their appearance, intelligence, speech, and behavior will resemble humans, some have asked whether androids should be endowed with personhood that would entail certain rights, duties, and special laws.

While such ethical questions are not immediate concerns, similar questions are now being raised about the responsible use of artificial intelligence, such as facial recognition technology. However, some have suggested that androids rather than being feared may become allies of humans.

Still others have expressed fears that androids with artificial intelligence could revolt and harm humans. Those fears, which have been the plots in some popular science fiction films and books, tend to be highly exaggerated. Artificial intelligence achieving self-awareness or becoming sentient is unlikely any time soon and software safeguards could shut down an android.

Nevertheless, some continue to stress dangers and express warnings about the possibly imminent development of androids with machine intelligence greater than that of humans. Sentient machines, they contend, pose a greater likely threat to human societies than climate change, nuclear proliferation, or pandemics.

Proto-type androids have been introduced in various countries, including China, Germany, Iran, India, Japan, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain, and the United Kingdom. Many of the leaders in those countries have recognized the vital functions that androids could perform for societies and the market for androids is believed set for rapid expansion.

It’s time for countries to facilitate and promote the inclusion of androids in business establishments, government offices, public places, and personal households. Welcoming androids into human societies will advance the technological futures of countries as well as contribute to addressing slow growing and ageing populations.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his book, “Births, Deaths, Migrations and Other Important Population Matters.”

© Inter Press Service (2022) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

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Why Arent More Women Angry? — Global Issues

Source: World Economic Forum.
  • Opinion by Joseph Chamie (portland, usa)
  • Inter Press Service

PORTLAND, USA, Jun 23 (IPS) – Why aren’t more women angry about their subordination, discrimination, and unequal treatment in the 21st century? Of course, some of the world’s women are angry, but they are comparatively few.

Women represent half of the world’s population and clearly play vital roles in humanity’s development, wellbeing, and advancement. Yet, women continue to experience discrimination, abusive treatment, misogyny degrading slurs, and subordinate roles in virtually every major sphere of human activity. 

Despite their treatment, discrimination, and subordination, most women aren’t expressing anger. If the situation between the two sexes were reversed, men would certainly be angry and would no doubt take the necessary steps to change the inequalities. 

Article 2 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights adopted nearly seventy-five years ago applies all rights and freedoms equally to women and men and prohibits discrimination on the basis of sex. 

Some 40 years ago, the international community of nations adopted the Convention on the Elimination of all Forms of Discrimination Against Women. And more recently, the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 5 aims to achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls. 

Notwithstanding those various declarations, international agreements, conventions, platforms for action, and the progress achieved in recent decades, women continue to lag behind men in rights, freedoms, and equality.

 From the very start of life in some parts of the world, baby girls are often viewed less favorably than baby boys. In many societies boy babies continue to be preferred over girl babies. In too many instances the preference for sons has resulted in sex ratios at birth that are skewed in favor of males due to pregnancy interventions by couples.

The natural sex ratio at birth for human populations is around 105 males per 100 females, though it can range from 103 to 107. At present, at least seven countries, including the world’s two largest populations, have skewed sex ratios at birth reflecting son preference pregnancy interventions (Figure 1).  

Source: United Nations.

China and India have skewed sex ratios at birth of 113 and 110 males per 100 females, respectively. High sex ratios at birth are also observed in Azerbaijan (113), Viet Nam (112), Armenia (111), Pakistan (109), and Albania (109). In contrast, for the period 1970-1975 when pregnancy interventions by couples had not yet become widespread, the sex ratios at birth for those seven countries were within the expected normal range. 

Also in some countries, the female sex ratio imbalance continues throughout women’s lives. For example, India, Pakistan, and China, which together account for nearly 40 percent of the world’s population, the sex ratios for their total populations are 108, 106, and 105, respectively. In contrast, the population sex ratios are 100 in Africa and Oceania, about 97 in Northern America and Latin America and the Caribbean, and 93 in Europe (Figure 2).

Source: United Nations.

In terms of education, while progress has been achieved in the past several decades, girls continue to lag behind boys in elementary school education in some countries, especially in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. For example, 78 girls in Chad and 84 girls in Pakistan are enrolled in primary school for every 100 boys.

Among young women between 15 to 24 years approximately one-quarter are expected not to finish primary school. In addition, about two-thirds of the illiterate people in the world are women.  

With respect to decision making, women do not have political representation or participation levels similar to men. Worldwide the estimated percentages of women in national parliaments, local governments, and managerial positions are 26, 36, and 28 percent, respectively. Even in developed countries, such as the United States, women make up 27 percent of Congress, 30 percent of statewide elected executives, and 31 percent of state legislators.

The labor force participation of women is also considerably lower than that of men. Globally in ages 25 to 54 years, for example,  62 percent of women are in the labor force compared to 93 percent of men. Also, the majority of the employed women, or 58 percent, are in the informal economy earning comparatively low wages and lacking social protection.

In general women are employed in the lowest-paid work. Worldwide women earn about 24 percent  less than men, with 700 million fewer women than men in paid employment. 

Women perform at least twice as much unpaid care as men, including childcare, housework, and elder care. Unpaid care and household responsibilities often come on top of women’s paid work. 

Increasing men’s participation in household tasks and caregiving would contribute to a more equitable sharing of those important domestic responsibilities. Also, governmental provision of childcare to families with young children would help both women and men combine their employment with family responsibilities.

A global comparative measure of women’s standing relative to men for regions and countries is the gender parity index. The index considers gender-based gaps across four fundamental dimensions: economic participation and opportunity, educational attainment, health and survival, and political empowerment.

The regions with the highest gender equality are Western Europe and Northern America with parity indexes of 78 and 76, respectively. In contrast, the regions with the lowest gender equality are South Asia and the Middle East and North Africa with parity indexes of 62 and 61, respectively (Figure 3).

Source: World Economic Forum.

With respect to countries, the top five countries with the highest gender equality are Iceland, Finland, Norway, New Zealand, and Sweden, with parity indexes ranging from 82 to 89. The bottom five  countries with the lowest gender equality are Afghanistan, Yemen, Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria, with parity indexes between 44 to 57.

Source: World Economic Forum.

In addition to the four fundamental dimensions of the gender parity index noted above, other important areas reflecting women’s subordination include misogyny,  sexual harassment, domestic abuse, intimate partner violence, and conflict-related sexual violence.

Worldwide it is estimated that 27 percent of women between ages 15 to 49 years had experienced physical or sexual violence by intimate long-term partners, often having long-term negative effects on the health of women as well as their children.

In addition, civil conflicts in countries, such as Ethiopia, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Syria, have all featured alarming reports of sexual violence against women. More recently, conflict-related sexual violence by the Russian forces in Ukraine is being reported, which has contributed to renewed attention by the international community to the sexual violence women face in conflict situations. 

The sexual harassment of women is a widespread global phenomenon. Most women have experienced it, especially in public places, which are often considered the domain of men with the home being considered the place for women. The reported percentages of women having experienced some form of sexual harassment in India and Viet Nam, for example, are nearly 80 and 90 percent, respectively. 

In addition to harassment, women in places such as India face risks from cultural and traditional practices, human trafficking, forced labor and domestic servitude. Moreover, the sexual harassment of women at the workplace is responsible for driving many to resign from their jobs.

Again, if men were experiencing misandry, discrimination, abusive treatment, harassment, and the subordination that women endure, they would be angry, intolerant, and no doubt turn to government officials, legislatures, courts, businesses, rights organizations, and even the streets to demand equality. Women should give serious consideration to the actions that men would take if inequalities were reversed.

With women continuing to lag behind men in rights, freedoms, and equality, the puzzling question that remains is:  why aren’t more women angry?

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Births, Deaths, Migrations and Other Important Population Matters.”

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An Open Borders World — Global Issues

Source: United Nations and Gallup.
  • Opinion by Joseph Chamie (portland, usa)
  • Inter Press Service

PORTLAND, USA, Jun 09 (IPS) – A world with open borders, as some strongly advocate while others insist on maintaining controlled borders, is an interesting exercise to consider given its potential consequences for nations, the planet’s 8 billion human inhabitants, climate change, and the environment.

Based on international surveys of 152 countries taken several years ago before the COVID-19 pandemic, approximately 15 percent of the world’s adults said that they would like to migrate permanently to another country if they could. Based on that percentage for adults plus their family members, the estimated number of people who want to migrate in 2022 is likely to be no less than 1.5 billion.

The figure of 1.5 billion wanting to migrate is more than 5 times the estimated number of immigrants in the world in 2020, or about 281 million. The figure of potential immigrants is also approximately 500 times the annual flow of immigrants globally.

The two regions with the highest proportions wanting to migrate to another country if they had the chance are sub-Saharan Africa at 33 percent and Latin America and the Caribbean at 27 percent. In addition, in 13 countries at least half of their populations would like to migrate to another country.

The top three countries with the proportion of their adult populations wanting to migrate are Sierra Leone at 71 percent, Liberia at 66 percent, and Haiti at 63 percent. They are followed by Albania at 60 percent, El Salvador at 52 percent, the Democratic Republic of the Congo at 50 percent.

Seven destination countries attract half of those wanting to migrate to another country. The top destination country at 21 percent of those wanting to migrate is the United States. Substantially lower, Canada and Germany are next at 6 percent, followed by France and Australia at 5 percent, the United Kingdom at 4 percent, and Saudi Arabia at 3 percent.

Among those seven destination countries, the numbers wanting to migrate are greater than the current populations of five of them. For example, the number of people wanting to migrate to Canada is 90 million versus its current population of 38 million. Similarly, the number wanting to migrate to Germany is 94 million versus its current population of 84 million. In the remaining two countries, the United States and the United Kingdom, the numbers wanting to migrate are nearly the same size as their current populations (Figure 1).

Source: United Nations and Gallup.

In addition to its impact on the size of populations, open borders would alter the ethnic, religious, and linguistic composition of populations, leading to increased cultural diversity. Past and present international migration flows have demonstrated alterations in the cultural composition of populations.

In the United States, for example, since 1965 when the Immigration and National Act on country of origin was passed, the proportion Hispanic increased nearly five-fold, from 4 percent to 19 percent in 2020, and the proportion non-Hispanic white declined from 84 percent to 58 percent. Similarly in Germany, the proportion Muslim since 1965 has increased five-fold, from less than 1 percent to 5 percent of the population in 2020.

Various reasons have been offered both in support and in opposition to an open borders world. For example, those opposed believe open borders would increase security threats, damage domestic economies, benefit big business and elites, increase societal costs, encourage brain drain, facilitate illegal trade, reduce labor wages, undermine cultural integrity, and create integration problems (Table 1).

Source: Author’s compilation.

In contrast, those in support believe open borders would provide a basic human right, reduce poverty, increase GDP growth, reduce border control costs, increase the labor supply, provide talented workers, promote travel, reduce time and costs of travel, raise a country’s tax base, promote cultural diversity, and contribute to global interdependence.

Open borders would certainly impact the cultural composition of populations. Even without open borders, the current changes in the cultural composition of populations being brought about by international migration have not only raised public concerns but have also contributed to the growing influence of nativist and far-right political parties.

The nativist parties are typically opposed to immigration, seeing it as a threat to their national cultural integrity. In contrast, those supportive of immigration welcome the arrival of people with differing backgrounds, ethnicities, and cultures. They view immigration it as a natural, ongoing human phenomenon that enriches societies.

Open borders would also have consequences on climate change and the environment. Large numbers of people would be migrating to countries with high levels of greenhouse gas emissions per capita. For example, while the world average of tons of CO2 equivalent per person is about 6, the level in the United States is about three times as large at 19.

Similarly, open borders would impact the environment. The migration to the high consumption destination countries would lead to increased biodiversity loss, pollution, and congestion.

An open borders world is not likely to happen any time soon. However, recent large-scale immigration flows, both legal and illegal, are substantially impacting government programs, domestic politics, international relations, and public opinion as well as the size and composition of the populations.

In virtually every region, governments appear to be at a loss on how best to address international migration, especially the waves of illegal migration arriving daily at international borders and the many already residing unlawfully within their countries. International conventions, agreements, and compacts concerning international migration are largely viewed as being outdated, unrealistic, and ineffective in dealing with today’s international migration issues.

The supply of men, women, and children in poor developing countries wanting to migrate greatly exceeds the demand for those migrants in wealthy developed countries by a factor of about five hundred.

The result is the Great Migration Clash, i.e., a worldwide struggle between those who “want out” of their countries and those who want others to “keep out” of their countries.

Given the enormous difference in supply and demand, the Migration Clash is unlikely to be resolved by simply asking destination countries to raise their immigration levels. To resolve the Migration Clash will require considerably improving the social, economic, political, and environmental conditions of the populations in the migrant sending countries.

Achieving those desirable development goals any time soon, however, appears as unlikely as establishing an open borders world. Therefore, countries will continue dealing the best they can with the consequences of controlled borders and the Great Migration Clash.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Births, Deaths, Migrations and Other Important Population Matters.”

© Inter Press Service (2022) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

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Illegal Immigration Dilemma — Global Issues

  • Opinion by Joseph Chamie (portland, usa)
  • Inter Press Service

PORTLAND, USA, May 23 (IPS) – Illegal immigration in the 21st century poses a serious dilemma for the world. Governments in virtually every region of the globe appear to be at a loss on how to address the two central dimensions of the dilemma.

The first dimension concerns the continuing waves of illegal migration arriving daily at international borders. The second dimension of the dilemma centers on the presence of millions of men, women, and children residing unlawfully within countries (Table 1).

Source: Author’s composition.

Various aspects of international migration with a focus on the 2018 Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration were discussed at the first United Nations International Migration Review Forum convened 17-20 May. The primary result of the Forum was an intergovernmental agreed Progress Declaration, which includes calling on governments to intensify efforts for safe and orderly migration, crack down on human smuggling and trafficking, and ensure that migrants are respected and receive health care and other services. However, the 13-page declaration did not come up with explicit guidelines nor enforceable actions that would effectively resolve the illegal immigration dilemma.

Three fundamental aspects of the illegal immigration dilemma involve demographics, human rights, and profits.

First, the demographics aspect clearly shows that the supply of people wishing to migrate largely from developing countries far exceeds the demand for immigrants in developed countries. As a result of that demographic imbalance and despite the costs and risks, millions of men, women, and children are turning to illegal migration in order to take up residence in another country, which are generally wealthy developed nations.

While more than a billion people would like to move permanently to another country, the current annual number of immigrants of several million is just a small fraction of those wanting to immigrate. Also, the total number of immigrants worldwide is also comparatively small, approximately 281 million in 2020, with an estimated quarter of them, or about 70 million, being illegal migrants (Figure 1).

Source: United Nations, Gallup, and author’s estimates.

In addition, the numbers of people attempting illegal migration are reaching record highs. In the United States, for example, the number encountered, i.e., arrested or apprehended, at the U.S.-Mexico border in April reached the highest recorded level of 234,088.

The numbers of illegal migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea to reach the European Union and English Channel to reach the United Kingdom are on the rise again. In the first two months of 2022, illegal border crossings at the EU’s external borders rose 61 percent from a year ago, or nearly 27,000. The British government also reported that the number of illegal migrants arriving in small boats could reach 1,000 a day.

The second fundamental aspect of the illegal migration dilemma involves the asymmetry of human rights concerning international migration. Article 13 of the International Declaration of Human Rights states that everyone has a right to leave any country, including his own, and return to his home country. However, a human right does not exist for one to enter another country without the authorization of that country (Table 2).

Source: Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

In addition, Article 14 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights provides individuals the right to seek asylum and to enjoy in other countries asylum from persecution. However, to be granted asylum, a person typically needs to be unable or unwilling to return to their country of origin owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion.

Poverty, unemployment, domestic issues, climate change, and poor governance are generally not considered legitimate grounds for granting asylum. Unfortunately, many of the asylum claims advanced are not genuine, but simply aimed at first entering and then remaining in the destination country.

Most asylum claims are denied but considerable amounts of time, often several years, are needed to reach a final decision on an individual’s claim. Such lengthy periods of time permit claimants to become settled, employed, and integrated into a local community.

In addition to the logistics, governments face economic consequences and public opposition from various quarters to repatriating illegal migrants to countries having high levels of poverty, corruption, and social unrest. Consequently, unless illegal migrants commit serious crimes, they are typically not arrested and deported.

One notable recent exception, however, is the United Kingdom, which is seeking to send illegal migrants to Rwanda. The British government recently announced that those making dangerous, unnecessary and illegal journeys to the UK may be relocated to Rwanda to have their claims for asylum considered and to rebuild their lives there.

The third fundamental aspect of the illegal migration dilemma concerns the profits derived. Charging high fees for their services, smugglers accrue large profits by promoting, facilitating, and encouraging the illegal migration of men, women, and children across international borders.

Once illegal migrants are settled at their desired destination, many businesses, and enterprises profit from their labor. Given their precarious status, illegal migrants are not only willing to work for below normal wages but are also reluctant to report workplace abuses as that can lead to their dismissal, arrest, and repatriation.

Faced with continuing waves of illegal migrants, many countries are building walls, fences, and barriers, increasing border guards, having more pushbacks, returns and expulsions, and establishing more detention centers. However, based on recent illegal migration levels and trends, those and related steps have not achieved their desired goals.

Similarly, faced with the presence of large numbers of illegal migrants residing within their borders, governments are struggling with how best to address this troubling dimension of the illegal migration dilemma. Governments are not inclined to grant an amnesty or path to citizenship for illegal migrants nor are they prepared to deport the illegal migrants residing within their borders. As a result, the current situation in most countries remains unresolved for most illegal migrants, who remain in a precarious status.

In sum, it appears that governments are unlikely to be able to resolve the illegal immigration dilemma any time soon. In fact, the dilemma is likely to be exacerbated by increasing illegal immigration due to growing populations, worsening living conditions, and the effects of climate change in migrant sending countries.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his book, “Births, Deaths, Migrations and Other Important Population Matters.”

© Inter Press Service (2022) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

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Earth Day to Earth Disaster — Global Issues

The worldwide degradation, fragmentation, and destruction of ecosystems are accelerating and generating serious consequences for flora, fauna and human well-being. Credit: Guillermo Flores/IPS
  • Opinion by Joseph Chamie (portland, usa)
  • Inter Press Service

PORTLAND, USA, Apr 25 (IPS) – Since the first Earth Day observed on 22 April 1970, world conditions have worsened greatly across three critically interrelated global dimensions that portend a disastrous future for life on planet Earth.

First, CLIMATE CHANGE is certainly the most worrisome threat to human security. The scientific evidence clearly demonstrates that climate change is a threat to the well-being of humans and the planet.

Global warming is resulting in unstable life-threatening changes in the planet’s climate and living conditions. Those cataclysmic changes are the consequence of human populations-caused atmospheric carbon pollution primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels.

Unfortunately, the response of world leaders to climate change has largely been the Climate Change Shuffle: deny, delay, and then do little. In brief, the international community of nations is witnessing the abdication of leadership by the major countries of the world.

Some have concluded that the world is in the midst of a human-caused extinction event. Many of the impacts of global warming are undeniable and are now considered as simply irreversible.

The ten warmest years on record have happened since 2005. In addition, 2020 was the second warmest year on record, being just 0.02 degrees Celsius less than the warmest year in 2016.

The 2020 world surface temperature averaged across land and ocean was 0.98 degrees Celsius warmer than the 20th century average of 13.90 Celsius. Also, the 2020 average was 1.19 Celsius warmer the pre-industrial period of 1880-1990 of 13.69 Celsius (Figure 1).

Source: Climate.gov.

The goal to limit global warming to well below the Paris Agreement rise of 2 degrees Celsius, or preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels is considered a losing battle.

In addition to the lack of global leadership, cooperation and enforceable objectives with explicit timetables, world leaders continue to sell out to wealthy interests and corporations that push for promised techno-fixes.

Second, WORLD POPULATION, which grew at record high rates during the 20th century, continues to grow and is greatly impacting all living organisms and natural resources on the planet.

Between 1920 and 2020, the population of the world quadrupled, increasing from 1.9 billion to 7.8 billion people. Moreover, since the first Earth Day fifty-two years ago, the human population on the planet has more than doubled, growing from 3.7 billion to nearly 8 billion today and is expected to add another 2 billion people by 2070 (Figure 2).

Source: United Nations.

Despite planet Earth reaching 8,000,000,000 human beings, countries continue to resist population stabilization and reductions. Many government officials, economic advisors, businesses, mainstream media, and others frequently lament population slowdowns and call for more demographic growth, particularly through increased birth rates.

In addition, human migration is at record levels and greatly impacting nations worldwide. The global number of immigrants has reached a high of around 281 million, with more than 84 million people displaced from their homes and more than 30 million refugees. In addition, millions of men, women, and children continue to attempt illegal migration.

Today’s enormous human mobility has resulted in the Great Migration Clash. The Clash is a worldwide struggle between those who desperately want out of their countries and those who vehemently want to keep others out of their countries.

More than a billion people, largely in poor and violence ridden countries, would like to move permanently to another country. At the same time, no less than a billion people, mainly in wealthy developed countries, say fewer immigrants should be allowed to enter.

Immigration is a top concern of voters in most migrant-receiving countries, with many concerned about the effects of immigration on their society and culture. Most migrant-destination countries are turning to border walls, barriers and patrols, repatriating those unlawfully resident, resisting accepting refugees and denying most asylum claims.

In addition, as the demand for migrants is a small fraction of the supply of people wishing to migrate, illegal immigration continues to be a major global challenge. The increased migration, particularly illegal migration, is contributing to the rise of right-wing populist and nativist parties.

Anti-immigrant sentiment has also spread to include refugees and asylum seekers. Many country policies to stem illegal immigration are undermining the established international rights and protections granted to refugees and asylum seekers.

Third, ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION is also critically altering conditions for all living organisms across the planet. The worldwide degradation, fragmentation, and destruction of ecosystems are accelerating and generating serious consequences for flora, fauna and human well-being.

The worsening conditions across land, sea, and air have been brought about by the unsustainable numbers of humans and their ongoing damaging behavior. The extraction of oil, gas, coal, and water, the logging, mining, fishing hunting, and the ever-increasing needs and demands of 8,000,000,000 humans have ruined large areas of planet Earth.

The degradation of environment includes reduced biodiversity, deforestation, depletion of natural resources, deteriorating ecosystems, and pollution. Since the first Earth Day in 1970, the planet has experienced a catastrophic decline in global wildlife populations and the natural environment is continuing to be destroyed by humans at an unprecedented rate.

During the past five decades, for example, the world experienced an average 68 percent drop in monitored vertebrate species, i.e., mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, and fish. In addition, the decline in monitored vertebrate species over the past half century varied considerably by major region from a low of 24 percent in Europe and Central Asia to a high of 94 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean (Figure 3).

Source: World Wildlife Fund, based on 20,811 populations of 4,392 species (mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, and fish).

Biodiversity loss has largely been the result of habitat destruction due to unsustainable agriculture and logging, the continuing ruin of grasslands, forests, and wetlands, and the overexploitation of fish, mammals and natural resources. In the coming years the biggest driver of further biodiversity loss is expected to be human-induced climate change.

In addition, environmental degradation coupled with climate change is increasingly fueling mass human migration. Growing numbers of men, women and children are moving domestically and internationally to escape difficult living conditions. Those changing conditions include prolonged drought, excessive heat, rising sea levels, large-scale flooding, extreme wildfires, dying coral reefs, violent storms, and weather-produced disasters.

What needs to be done today to address climate change, world population, and environmental degradation, are not secrets, unknowns, or recent discoveries.

Over the past decades, scientists, environmental organizations, international agencies, intergovernmental panels, and many others have repeatedly warned world leaders about climate change, world population and environmental degradation. In addition, they have clearly spelled out the immediate steps required to address those critical issues.

Briefly, among those steps are: (1) adoption of energy efficiency and conservation practices and the replacement of fossil fuels with low-carbon renewables; (2) reduction of emissions of short-lived climate pollutants; (3) protection and restoration of the planet’s ecosystems; (4) shift from consumption of animal products to diets of mostly plant-based foods; (5) transition from emphasis on GDP growth toward sustaining ecosystems; and (6) the stabilization of world population, and ideally a gradual reduction, within a framework ensuring social integrity.

Unfortunately, based on the behavior of countries today and their expected actions in the future with respect to climate change, world population, and environmental degradation, objective observers are increasingly arriving at an unavoidable conclusion. Namely, it will be highly unlikely to avoid a disastrous future for life on planet Earth.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Births, Deaths, Migrations and Other Important Population Matters.”

© Inter Press Service (2022) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

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