Category: World

Climate Change Brings New Pest & Disease Pressures Previously Unimaginable — Global Issues

Children stand in a flood water in Borno State, Nigeria. Credit: UNICEF/Vlad Sokhin
  • Opinion by Alexander Muller – Adam Prakash – Elena Lazutkaite (berlin)
  • Inter Press Service

BERLIN, Oct 25 (IPS) – In temperate zones lie most of the world’s richest countries, which have also been up till now the world’s major breadbaskets, in meeting international grain, oilseed and livestock product needs.

However, climate change is threatening to change the course of history, allowing some native pests to breed more frequently and longer, while invasive insects and pathogens are being spread more widely.

It is no coincidence that agriculture in temperate regions, such as much of Northern Europe and Northern America, is characterised by high productivity.

In temperate zones, agricultural sectors are highly capital intensive with new technologies continuously introduced; weather conditions during growing seasons are often predictably favourable; while harsh winters and cold springs prevent many plant pests and pathogens from overwintering, all leading to crop yields that are approaching their physiological ceilings, and at the same time storage losses being kept to a minimum.

In a nutshell

Pests and diseases can undergo rapid evolutionary changes through natural selection within the timescale of climate change. As the climate warms up, agricultural pests and diseases are advancing northwards and becoming more widespread.

Notwithstanding, the science that links climate change with changes to the behaviour of insect pests and pathogens is complex, given the latter’s multitude of biological responses and their interactions with changing environmental stimuli.

Invasive species, by definition, have succeeded in areas outside of their habitual range and therefore have higher adaptive capacity relative to native species. Evolution and adaptation are therefore the inherent mechanisms that explain why pests and diseases pose a consequential threat (both localised and transboundary) under a changing climate.

Natural selection also explains why an increasing number of insect pests have become resistant to pesticides.

Why should richer economies be worried? What science tell us

Drawing from a recent report on the scientific linkages between climate change and pest and disease outbreaks produced by TMG Think Tank for Sustainability and Climate Prediction and Applications Centre of Intergovernmental Authority on Development, temperature rise in temperate zones is likely to attract new pests that have migrated from areas where heat stress is too severe.

However, with warmer winters in northern latitudes there is strong likelihood of migration resulting in an increase in the build-up of insect pest populations to damaging levels owing to early emergence (shorter dormancy due to accelerated metabolic rates attributable to higher temperatures).

While there is uncertainty on whether invasive species can establish themselves in new environments, much will depend on factors such as the degree of temperature rise, food supply and natural enemies and whether they can maintain or adapt to the synchrony with growth cycles of plants on which they feed.

Warming will also have other detrimental effects, such as bringing about an increased number of generations of native and invasive insect pests through greater intra-year breeding, fostering rising population growth.

Ultimately, with a larger temperature window in temperate zones within which insects and pathogens can flourish combined with rising heat stress to crops, these zones could register rapid increases in pest and disease outbreaks, increased use of pesticides, increased costs to farmers and lower yields.

In fact, the transboundary and transoceanic expansion of invasive species is already heading northwards thanks to climate change including extreme events such as cyclones and storms, and further exacerbated by international trade and travel.

A case in point here is the recent spread of the destructive lanternflies to the United States, which have demonstrated great adaptability to new environments and pose imminent threat to vineyard based economies. Researchers further predict that corn earworm that ravages maize, cotton, soyabeans and vegetables is expanding northwards into the United States’ maize belt.

The UN estimates that at least 20 percent of all food crops grown worldwide are lost annually to plant pests and diseases. With the rich temperate countries becoming increasing vulnerable, total losses would increase.

Consequently, while there is a pressing need for scientific theory to provide further precision on pest-climate dynamics, as affirmed in the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), action is needed now.

Harnessing technological leaps in the realm of artificial intelligence, will be critical for enhanced plant pest and disease surveillance, diagnostics and outbreak prediction via early warning systems.

As with all pest and disease outbreaks, prevention is far cheaper than dealing with full-blown crises, and what is more, pests and diseases are often impossible to eradicate once they have established themselves.

Alexander Müller is TMG’s Managing Director. He is a former Assistant Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and State Secretary for Consumer Protection, Food and Agriculture, Germany.

Adam Prakash is a TMG research associate, whose work explores the quantitative links between climate change and agriculture and how emerging technologies can de-risk food systems.

Elena Lazutkaite is an animal scientist and interdisciplinary researcher focusing on food and agriculture, transboundary pests and resilience, and environmental sustainability.

TMG Research gGmbH is an international not-for-profit think tank headquartered in Berlin, Germany, with an African regional office in Nairobi. Through action-oriented research with local and international partners, TMG triggers new thinking and “social innovations” to tackle entrenched governance challenges in the transition to a more sustainable future for people and planet.

IPS UN Bureau

© Inter Press Service (2022) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

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Malaysia’s forced return of Myanmar’s most vulnerable must stop: UNHCR — Global Issues

There have been “multiple reports” of deportations since April which run contrary to international humanitarian law, UNHCR spokesperson, Shabia Mantoo, told journalists in Geneva.

“According to information received by UNHCR, an asylum-seeker from Myanmar was deported on 21 October from detention despite UNHCR interventions...Such deportations of refugees and asylum-seekers amount to refoulement.”

Myanmar has been gripped by civil war since February 2021 and sending people back there has exposed them “to harm and danger”, the UN agency spokesperson insisted.

On Sunday, unconfirmed reports emerged that a concert held by opposition forces in Kachin was targeted by airstrikes that killed at least 50 people.

Non-refoulement, non-negotiable

UNHCR’s Ms. Mantoo described the principle of non-refoulement as “a cornerstone of international law” which was “binding on all States”.

The development follows a wider appeal from the UN refugee agency to countries in the region to stop forced returns of Myanmar nationals seeking safety from serious harm.

“Sending them back to the country is placing countless lives at risk,” said Gillian Triggs, UNHCR’s Assistant High Commissioner for Protection.

Myanmar’s neighbours should end the “indefinite detention” of asylum-seekers and refugees from the country, the senior UNHCR official maintained, while also expressing concern at the ongoing indiscriminate violence against civilians across Myanmar, since the military coup.

Fighting has also continued between the Myanmar military and ethnic armed groups in some border areas which has driven people to flee within the country and across borders, Ms. Triggs noted.

Myanmar’s spiral

Tuesday’s alert from UNHCR echoes serious and widespread concerns about the fate of those who have fled Myanmar. At last month’s Human Rights Council session, UN-appointed independent human rights expert Tom Andrews reported that conditions had “gone from bad to worse, to horrific for untold numbers of innocent people in Myanmar”.

Some 1.3 million people are now displaced inside Myanmar, Mr. Andrews noted, with 28,000 homes destroyed, villages burned to the ground and more than 13,000 children killed.

A food crisis is also looming in the country, the top rights expert continued, with 130,000 Rohingya in de facto internment camps and others suffering deprivation and discrimination rooted in their lack of citizenship.

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A UN Resident Coordinator Blog — Global Issues

“I visited several cholera treatment centres in the most affected neighbourhoods of Port-au-Prince and saw heart-breaking scenes; children who were so malnourished, it was difficult to insert a drip into their arms or legs; adults who were clearly very ill.

What immediately struck me was the intense smell of chlorine disinfectant, which is used to sterilize the immediate environment, clearly a sign that the facility is well run by health professionals who know how to prevent and treat the disease. I saw staff continually scrubbing the floor and surfaces to ensure that the cholera bacteria could not spread further.

UNOCHA/Christian Cricboom

Ulrika Richardson (centre), the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Haiti visits a cholera treatment centre in Port-au-Prince.

I was deeply impressed and moved by the commitment and dedication of health workers. I met many inspirational people who have embodied this professionalism, and who have also demonstrated humanity and huge empathy with patients under treatment. Many have told me that Haitians are coming together to get through this difficult time.

Sharp increase in cases

Up until a few days ago, the increase of cholera cases had been gradual but now we are seeing a worryingly sharp increase, so the situation has become more challenging.

It is important to remember that although cholera can be deadly, it is preventable and treatable. Speed is of the essence, to contain an outbreak and save lives. I believe the public health response from the Haitian authorities, local and international NGOs, with the support of the UN, was immediate and decisive, despite shortages of clean water, and the fuel needed to provide power to health facilities and enable staff to get to work.

Cholera treatment centres were quickly established to care for the sick. Haitian people have lived through cholera before, so there is knowhow and experience that is extremely valuable if we are to prevent the outbreak from getting out of hand.

The inability of people to move around freely, especially in the capital Port-au-Prince, because of the prevailing security situation and lack of fuel, may also have played a part in containing the spread, although this insecurity has also complicated the cholera response.

Haitian-led response

© PAHO

PAHO staff train community health workers on cholera identification and prevention.

From day one of the outbreak, the UN in Haiti, with its national and international partners, has worked alongside the Ministry of Health. The public health messages from the Ministry of Health, on radio and via text messages, which the UN supported, have underlined the importance of preventative measures like handwashing and disinfecting.

The UN’s Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has supported our partners to open 13 cholera treatment centres. Oral rehydration points are also being established, particularly in hard-to-reach communities, to treat milder cases and refer others to in-patient facilities, while assistance has been provided to train 300 community health workers. These workers are crucial, as so many communities are isolated due to armed gang violence.

UNICEF and the UN’s International Organization for Migration (IOM) are supporting the Haitian authorities and partner organizations with chlorine, water- purifying tablets, hygiene kits and medical supplies such as oral rehydration salts. UNICEF, through its partners is also deploying mobile health clinics in Cité Soleil, the capital’s most affected neighbourhood.

The humanitarian situation in Haiti is desperate for many and cholera is just one pressing challenge. Increased hunger faced by too many Haitians is another great concern that needs to be addressed. The World Food Programme has resumed its distribution of food inside Cité Soleil, reaching over 5500 vulnerable people since mid-October.

Coordinator and troubleshooter

As the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Haiti, my role is to facilitate the UN’s response in a way to maximise our impact and ensure all our knowledge and expertise effectively supports the Ministry of Health’s cholera prevention and treatment strategy.

This means making linkages, whether here in Haiti with national entities or with different areas of the UN, so that our combined effort is greater than the sum of its parts.

In fact, I have been impressed not only by the quick mobilization of agencies and colleagues on the ground but also by the attention and action of the most senior leaders across the United Nations.

A can-do attitude is essential; when there are bottlenecks, for example a lack of fuel for treatment centres, I am called to help troubleshoot the problem.

Ultimately, our shared goal is to work towards a cholera-free Haiti and since the latest outbreak, I have witnessed first-hand the UN’s commitment to the people of Haiti.

Since its creation, the United Nations and Haiti have shared a strong bond. Now is once again the time for the UN and Haitians to come together to tackle this crisis so that Haiti and its people emerge stronger and more unified as the country continues on the path towards stability, equality and prosperity.

  • The UN Resident Coordinator
  • The UN Resident Coordinator, sometimes called the RC, is the highest-ranking representative of the UN development system at the country level.
  • In this occasional series, UN News is inviting RCs to blog on issues important to the United Nations and the country where they serve.
  • Learn more about the work of the UN in Haiti.

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UNICEF report — Global Issues

Today, at least half a billion youngsters are already exposed to a high number of heatwaves, placing them on the front lines of climate change, the UN agency noted.

By the middle of this century, moreover, it estimates that more than two billion children will be exposed to “more frequent, longer lasting, and more severe” heatwaves.

“The climate crisis is a child rights crisis – and it is already taking a devastating toll on children’s lives and futures,” warned UNICEF Executive Director, Catherine Russell.

This year’s wildfires and heatwaves that have swept through India, Europe, and North America were “yet another sobering example of the impact of climate change on children”, she added.

Youngsters at greater risk

New data from the agency published in its report, The Coldest Year Of The Rest Of Their Lives, underscores that young children face greater risks than adults when faced with extreme heat events.

This is because they are less able to regulate their body temperature compared to adults. The more heatwaves children are exposed to, the greater the chance of health problems including chronic respiratory conditions, asthma, and cardiovascular diseases.

“The world urgently needs to invest in building their resilience – and in adapting all the systems children rely on to meet the challenges of a rapidly changing climate,” UNICEF maintained.

This is regardless of whether average global temperatures rise by 1.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels if greenhouse gas emissions are low, or whether they rise by 2.4C, if emissions are high.

© UNICEF/Frank Dejongh

A girl drinks water in the playground of her school, in Goré, in the South of Chad.

Protection – the priority

Protecting children from the escalating impacts of heatwaves should be a priority for all countries, UNICEF said, in a call for “urgent and dramatic emissions mitigation measures to contain global heating – and protect lives”.

Children in northern regions will face the most dramatic increases in high heatwave severity, while by 2050, nearly half of all children in Africa and Asia will face sustained exposure to extreme high temperatures over 35C (95F), UN Children’s Fund data showed.

“This will have a devastating impact on children,” said Vanessa Nakate, climate activist and UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador. “The more frequent, longer lasting and more severe heatwaves children are exposed to, the greater the impacts on health, safety, nutrition, education, access to water and future livelihoods.”

© UNICEF/Fani Llaurado

A young girl washes her face using newly installed piped water at her home in Cambodia.

Adaptation call

Highlighting the devastating impact of drought in the Horn of Africa after four failed rainy seasons, Ms. Nakate insisted that “lives are being lost from preventable causes because the world is acting too slowly on mitigation and not providing enough support for adaptation”.

Children “who are least responsible for climate change are bearing its biggest costs”, she continued, noting that although Africa produces less than four per cent of global emissions, it suffers some “most brutal” impacts of the climate crisis.

“Almost every country is experiencing changing heatwaves,” UNICEF said. “What each government does now will determine the survival of those least responsible for this crisis – our children and young people.” 

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UN Special Envoy — Global Issues

The country is facing its worst economic crisis since the war began, as well as a deadly cholera outbreak that is rapidly spreading. 

Mr. Pedersen reported on his recent “busy period of diplomatic engagement” with key Syrian and international stakeholders, including in connection with the stalled Constitutional Committee meetings in Geneva. 

Long way to go 

“This political solution is the only path to sustainable peace,” he said, speaking from the Swiss city. 

“Sadly, we are a long way from this goal at present, and there are challenging diplomatic and ground realities that make advancing towards a comprehensive solution difficult. But the status quo should not be acceptable and there are ways forward.” 

Seven years ago, the Security Council adopted Resolution 2254 which outlines a roadmap for a peace process in Syria. 

ISIL threat persists 

So far, the political process has not delivered for the Syrian people, said Mr. Pedersen, and conflict remains “very active” across the country. 

Listing examples, he said the terrorist group ISIL remains a serious threat.  One of the largest weapons caches since its fall was recently discovered in the northeast, underscoring the insurgents’ continued capacity to carry out attacks. 

Pro-Government airstrikes also were reported in areas of northwest Syria where none had been reported for a long time. 

Meanwhile, in the northeast, drone strikes, mutual shelling and confrontations have been reported between the Syrian Democratic Forces on the one hand, and Türkiye and armed opposition groups on the other. 

Building confidence among stakeholders 

The Special Envoy detailed his many engagements over recent weeks, including with Syria’s Foreign Minister and the president of the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC). 

He also met with the Foreign Ministers of Iran, Russia, and Türkiye, and their counterparts from Egypt and Jordan, as well as senior officials from Arab countries, the United States, Germany, and other European nations. 

Mr. Pedersen said he is pushing for all stakeholders “to engage on step-for-step confidence building measures” towards advancing Resolution 2254.  

“The key Syrian and international stakeholders need to rebuild their confidence that cooperation on Syria is possible, that the other side is willing and able to deliver, and that Syria can be firewalled from other conflicts. That confidence can only be built by concrete actions,” he stressed. 

Engagement will continue.  So far, some countries have identified “concrete areas for potential steps”, he said, but talks need to go further. 

UN Photo/Violaine Martin

Syrian Constitutional Committee meets in Geneva (file photo).

Syrian Constitutional Committee 

The UN envoy also continues his work to unblock obstacles surrounding the reconvening of the Syrian Constitutional Committee, which comprises representatives from the Government, the opposition and civil society. 

Government nominees have not come to Geneva after Russia cited concerns over the venue.  

Mr. Pedersen has since discussed the matter with Russia, Switzerland, Syria and the SNC. 

“Even assuming sessions resume in Geneva, this would not be sufficient to restore the credibility of the Committee in the eyes of most Syrians and international stakeholders,” he said.  

“That is why I am seeking to work with the parties and the co-chairs so that, when meetings reconvene, there is political will to engage in a spirit of compromise, with a faster pace, better working methods and more substance.” 

Arbitrary arrests continue 

The Special Envoy and his team continue to monitor the issue of detained, disappeared, and missing persons. 

“Regrettably, we continue to receive reports of arbitrary arrests throughout the country,” he said.   

“Meanwhile, six months after the presidential amnesty decree, there is nothing new to report. Despite our continued engagement, official information is not forthcoming, nor has independent monitoring been facilitated.” 

Tribute to Syrian women 

Mr. Pedersen began his briefing by thanking the many Syrians, both inside and outside the country, who continue to engage with his office. 

He expressed particular gratitude to Syrian women, noting that although they have suffered countless indignities in the conflict, many have found ways to come together across their divides.  

“They embody a hope that a political settlement can bring real peace and enable Syrian women to assume their rightful and hard-earned place in society,” he said. 

Cholera ‘tragedy’ no surprise 

The Council also heard how communities in Syria are struggling to survive amidst a spiraling security, public health and economic crisis. 

Reena Ghelani, a Director in the UN’s humanitarian affairs office, OCHA, provided an update on the cholera outbreak. 

More than 20,000 suspected cases of the waterborne disease have been confirmed so far, and at least 80 people have died. 

“This is a tragedy, but it should not come as a surprise,” she remarked.  “Millions of people across Syria lack reliable access to sufficient and safe water, and the health system has been devastated by over a decade of conflict.” 

© UNOCHA/Ali Haj Suleiman

In a camp for people displaced by conflict in the north-west of Syria, children cool down from soaring summer temperatures in the back of a truck made into a temporary pool.

Worsening water crisis 

The outbreak is further compounded by factors such as poor rainfall in many locations, severe drought-like conditions, and damaged water infrastructure. 

The UN and partners have been sounding the alarm on the water crisis in northern Syria for at least the past year, said Ms. Ghelani. 

“The crisis is likely to get even worse,” she warned. “The outlook from now to December suggests an increased probability for below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures.” 

The UN has a three-month plan to respond to the outbreak. It calls for $34.4 million to assist 162,000 with health services, and five million with water, sanitation and hygiene assistance. 

Winter plan underfunded 

Humanitarians are also gearing up for another bitter winter in Syria, with snowstorms, sub-zero temperatures, rains and flooding expected soon. 

“This year, the number of people who need winterization assistance has increased by a staggering 30 per cent across the country compared to the previous year,” said Ms. Ghelani. 

“In the northwest, some two million people depend on winter assistance to meet their most basic needs. Most are women and children living in camps with limited or no access to heating, electricity, water, or sewage disposal.” 

A winterization response plan currently remains “grossly underfunded”, she said, adding that the shelter and non-food items sector now stands at just 10 per cent financed.  

Ms. Ghelani stressed that “if this gap is not filled, families will not receive the heating, fuel, blankets, and winter clothes that they desperately need to keep warm.” 

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Macroeconomic Policy Coordination More One-Sided, Ineffective — Global Issues

  • Opinion by Jomo Kwame Sundaram, Anis Chowdhury (sydney and kuala lumpur)
  • Inter Press Service

SYDNEY and KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 25 (IPS) – Widespread adverse reactions to the UK government’s recent ‘mini-budget’ forced new Prime Minister Liz Truss to resign. The episode highlighted problems of macroeconomic policy coordination and the interests involved.

Macro-policy coordination
But macroeconomic, specifically fiscal-monetary policy coordination almost became “taboo” as central bank independence (CBI) became the new orthodoxy. It has been accused of enabling CBs to finance government deficits. Critics claim inflation, even hyperinflation, becomes inevitable.

Anis ChowdhuryGovernment finance ministries and CBs are the two main macroeconomic policy protagonists. Poor ‘macro-policy’ coordination has generated problems, including contradictory policy responses. This has meant more macroeconomic and financial instability, worrying markets and investors.

Fiscal policy – notably variations in government tax and spending – mainly aims to influence long-term growth and distribution. CB monetary policy – e.g., variations in short-term interest rates and credit growth – claims to prioritize price and exchange rate stability.

By the early 1990s, the ‘Washington consensus’ implied the two macro-policy actors should work independently due to their different time horizons. After all, governments are subject to short-term political considerations inimical to monetary stability needed for long-term growth.

Claiming to be “technocratic”, CBs have increasingly set their own goals or targets. CBI has involved both ‘goal’ and ‘instrument’ independence, instead of ‘goal dependence’ with ‘instrument independence’.

CBI was ostensibly to avoid ‘fiscal dominance’ of monetary policy. Meanwhile, government fiscal policy became subordinated to CB inflation targets. For former Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Guy Debelle, monetary policy became “the only game in town for demand management”.

Debelle noted that except for rare and brief coordinated fiscal stimuli in early 2009, after the onset of the global financial crisis, “demand management continued to be the sole purview of central banks. Fiscal policy was not much in the mix”.

Jomo Kwame SundaramSub-optimal outcomes
But more than three decades of “divorce” between independent CBs and fiscal authorities have failed to deliver its promised benefits. Instead, monetary policy dominance has worsened financial instability.

Adam Posen found the costs of disinflation, or keeping inflation low, higher in OECD countries with CBI. Carl Walsh found likewise in the European Community.

For Guy Debelle and Stanley Fischer, CBs have sought to enhance their credibility by being tougher on inflation, even at the expense of output and employment losses.

Committed to arbitrary targets, independent CBs have sought credit for keeping inflation low. They deny other contributory factors, e.g., labour’s diminished bargaining power and globalization, particularly cheaper supplies.

John Taylor, author of the ‘Taylor rule’ CB mantra, concluded CB “performance was not associated with de jure central bank independence”. De jure CB independence has not prevented them from “deviating from policies that lead to both price and output stability”.

The de facto independent US Fed has also taken “actions that have led to high unemployment and/or high inflation”. As single-minded independent CBs pursued low inflation, they neglected their responsibility for financial stability.

CBs’ indiscriminate monetary expansion during the 2000s’ Great Moderation enabled asset price bubbles and dangerous speculation, culminating in the global financial crisis (GFC).

Since the GFC, “the financial sector has become dependent on easy liquidity… To compensate for quantitative easing (QE)-induced low return…, increased the risk profile of their other assets, taking on more leverage, and hedging interest rate risk with derivatives”.

Independent CBs also never acknowledge the adverse distributional consequences of their policies. This has been true of both conventional policies, involving interest rate adjustments, and unconventional ones, with bond buying, or QE. All have enabled speculation, credit provision and other financial investments.

They have also helped inefficient and uncompetitive ‘zombie’ enterprises survive. Instead of reversing declining long-term productivity growth, the slowdown since the GFC “has been steep and prolonged”.

Workers’ real wages have remained stagnant or even declined, lowering labour’s income share and widening income inequality. As crises hit and monetary policies were tightened, workers lost jobs and incomes. Workers are doubly hit as governments pursue fiscal austerity to keep inflation low.

Dire consequences
The pandemic has seen unprecedented fiscal and monetary responses. But there has been little coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities. Unsurprisingly, greater pandemic-induced fiscal deficits and monetary expansion have raised inflationary pressures, especially with supply disruptions.

This could have been avoided if policymakers had better coordinated fiscal and monetary measures to unlock key supply bottlenecks. War and economic sanctions have made the supply situation even more dire.

Government debt has been rising since the GFC, reaching record levels due to pandemic measures. CBs hiking interest rates to contain inflation have thus worsened public debt burdens, inviting austerity measures.

Thus, countries go through cycles of debt accumulation and output contraction. Supposed to contain inflation, they adversely impact livelihoods. Many more developing countries face debt crises, further setting back progress.

Needed reforms
Sixty years ago, Milton Friedman asserted, “money is too important to be left to the central bankers”. He elaborated, “One economic defect of an independent central bank … is that it almost invariably involves dispersal of responsibility… Another defect … is the extent to which policy is … made highly dependent on personalities… third … defect is that an independent central bank will almost invariably give undue emphasis to the point of view of bankers”.

Thus, government-sceptic Friedman recommended, “either to make the Federal Reserve a bureau in the Treasury under the secretary of the Treasury, or to put the Federal Reserve under direct congressional control.

“Either involves terminating the so-called independence of the system… either would establish a strong incentive for the Fed to produce a stabler monetary environment than we have had”.

Undoubtedly, this is an extreme solution. Friedman also suggested replacing CB discretion with monetary policy rules to resolve the problem of lack of coordination. But, as Alan Blinder has observed, such rules are “unlikely to score highly”.

Effective fiscal-monetary policy coordination requires appropriate supporting institutions and operating arrangements. As IMF research has shown, “neither legal independence of central bank nor a balanced budget clause or a rule-based monetary policy framework … are enough to ensure effective monetary and fiscal policy coordination”.

Although rules-based policies may enhance transparency and strengthen discipline, they cannot create “credibility”, which depends on policy content, not policy frameworks.

For Debelle, a combination of “goal dependence” and “instrument or operational independence” of CBs under strong democratic or parliamentary oversight may be appropriate for developed countries.

There is also a need to broaden membership of CB governing boards to avoid dominance by financial interests and to represent broader national interests.

But macro-policy coordination should involve more than merely an appropriate fiscal-monetary policy mix. A more coherent approach should also incorporate sectoral strategies, e.g., public investment in renewable energy, education & training, healthcare. Such policy coordination should enable sustainable development and reverse declining productivity growth.

As Buiter urges, it is up to governments “to make appropriate use of … fiscal space” created by fiscal-monetary coordination. Democratic checks and balances are needed to prevent “pork-barrelling” and other fiscal abuses and to protect fiscal decision-making from corruption.

IPS UN Bureau


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How Dirty and Dangerous Will Putin Get in Ukraine?

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U.S. Political Divides on Demographic Issues — Global Issues

Republicans in general favor less immigration than Democrats. For example, a national Gallup poll in July 2022 found that the proportion saying immigration to America should be decreased was 69 percent among Republicans versus 17 percent among Democrats. Credit: Guillermo Arias / IPS
  • Opinion by Joseph Chamie (portland, usa)
  • Inter Press Service

PORTLAND, USA, Oct 24 (IPS) – Given the upcoming midterm elections in the United States and the consequences of the outcome for domestic legislation and programs as well as the country’s foreign policy, it’s useful and fitting to review fundamental differences between America’s two major political parties on vital demographic issues.

On virtually every major demographic issue, including reproduction, mortality, immigration, ethnic composition, gender, marriage and population ageing, significant divides exist between the Democrats and Republicans (Figure 1). Those divides have significant consequences and implications for current and future government policies and programs.

Source: Various U.S. public opinion surveys.

Those divides on vital demographic matters, which have become increasingly politicized by the two major parties, are reinforcing political polarization and partisan antipathy across the country and hindering the economic, social and cultural development of the United States.

With respect to reproduction, while most Democrats are in favor of a woman’s legal access to abortion, most Republicans are not. For example, a March 2022 PEW national survey found that proportion of Democrats saying abortion should be legal in all or most cases was more than twice that of Republicans, i.e., 80 versus 38 percent.

Also, Gallup polls indicate a widening gap since the late 1980s between Democrats and Republicans on the circumstances permitting abortion. By 2022, for example, the proportions of Democrats and Republicans saying abortions should be legal under any circumstances were 57 and 10 percent, respectively (Figure 2).

Source: Gallup.

A similar difference on abortion is evident among members of Congress and justices of the Supreme Court. While Congressional Democrats are largely in favor codifying access to abortion and safeguards to the right to travel across state lines to undergo the procedure, Congressional Republicans are opposed to such access and safeguards. And the recent Supreme Court abortion decision ending the right to abortion reflects the divides in the views of justices appointed by Republican and Democrat administrations.

Concerning access to birth control methods, the vote on the recently passed bill by the House of Representatives was mostly along party lines. All but eight Republicans opposed the bill that aims to ensure access to contraception. In the Senate, the birth control measure is expected to fail as most Republicans are likely to be against it.

On mortality and morbidity issues, Congressional Democratic and Republican leaders are also divided. A notable example of that divide has been the sustained Republican opposition to the Affordable Care Act enacted by Democrats more than a decade ago.

Recent research has also found that more premature deaths occur in Republican-leaning counties than in Democratic-leaning counties. The policies adopted by Democratic-leaning states compared to those in Republican states are believed to have contributed to the greater divide in mortality outcomes. Those policies include Medicaid expansion, health care access, minimum wage legislation, tobacco control, gun legislation, and drug addiction treatment.

The early responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, which was transformed from a public health concern into a major political issue, also reflect the divide in mortality outcomes between Democrats and Republicans. While mask wearing, social distancing, and related preventive measures were often stressed by most Democratic officials, many Republican leaders resisted such measures and downplayed the risks of the coronavirus.

Those partisan differences concerning the COVID-19 pandemic were reflected in the behavior and attitudes of Republicans and Democrats across the country. As a result of those attitudinal and behavioral differences, Republican-leaning counties have had higher COVID-19 death rates than Democrat-leaning counties.

With respect to immigration, Republicans in general favor less immigration than Democrats. For example, a national Gallup poll in July 2022 found that the proportion saying immigration to America should be decreased was 69 percent among Republicans versus 17 percent among Democrats. The rise for decreased immigration during the past several years is primarily due to Republicans, whose desire for reducing immigration increased by 21 points since June 2020 compared to an increase of 4 points among Democrats (Figure 3).

Source: Gallup.

To address immigration levels, the former Republican administration advocated building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and limiting the granting of asylum claims. In contrast, most Democratic leaders have not been in favor of erecting a border wall. Also, the current Democratic administration has been removing obstacles to granting asylum claims, including ending the former administration’s “Remain in Mexico” policy.

Concerning the more than 11 million illegal immigrants residing in the country, the former Republican administration wanted to ban counting them in the 2020 census. The desired exclusion of undocumented migrants in the census enumeration was aimed at not including them when determining Congressional representation. The current Democratic administration, in contrast, includes undocumented migrants in the census count and determining Congressional representation.

On whether to offer an amnesty to immigrants living unlawfully in the country, a wide divide exists between the two major political parties. While Democrats are largely in favor of offering illegal immigrants a path to U.S. citizenship, many Republicans oppose granting an amnesty to those who are unlawfully resident in the country. A PEW survey in August 2022, for example, found the proportion in favor of a path to U.S. citizenship among Democrats was more than double the level among the Republicans, 80 versus 37 percent, respectively.

Regarding the changing ethnic composition of the U.S. population, Democrats tend to view the changes more favorably than Republicans. For example, one national PEW survey found Democrats three times more likely than Republicans to say a majority nonwhite population will strengthen America’s customs and values, i.e., 42 and 13 percent, respectively.

Similar divides between Democrats and Republicans were found with respect to interracial marriage and same-sex marriage. The growth of interracial marriage is considered to be a good thing for the country by a majority of Democrats and a minority of Republicans, 61 and 33 percent, respectively. Also, Democrats have been consistently more likely than Republicans to say that same-sex marriages should recognized by the law as valid, with the proportions in 2022 at 83 and 55 percent, respectively (Figure 4).

Source: Gallup.

Democrats and Republicans also differ in their views about gender identity. While a national PEW survey found 80 percent of Republicans saying that whether someone is a man or a woman is determined by the sex assigned at birth, 64 percent of Democrats took the opposite view, believing that a person’s gender can be different from the sex assigned at birth.

Moreover, the majority of Republicans, 57 percent, say that society has gone too far in accepting people who are transgender, compared to 12 percent of Democrats.

On the issue of population ageing, noteworthy policy differences with program implications exist between Democrats and Republicans. In general, Republican leaders have resisted government entitlement programs established by Democrats, such as Social Security and Medicare, preferring reliance on the private sector, freedom of choice and individual responsibility.

Republican leaders have proposed replacing those major programs for older Americans with private investment accounts and a voucher system for health insurance. In addition, some Republicans recommend eliminating Social Security and Medicare as federal entitlement programs and have them become programs approved by Congress annually as discretionary spending.

A similar political divide exists among Americans concerning the provision of long-term care that the elderly may need. One national PEW survey in 2019 reported that while two-thirds of Democrats say the government should be mostly responsible for paying for that care for the elderly, 40 percent of Republicans have that view.

In sum, significant divides currently exist between Democrats and Republicans on nearly every major demographic issue facing the United States. Those divides are being politicized by the two parties, reinforcing political polarization and partisan antipathy across the country, which in turn are affecting domestic legislation and foreign policy as well as hampering America’s progress in the 21st century.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Births, Deaths, Migrations and Other Important Population Matters.”

© Inter Press Service (2022) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

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Europe in Its Labyrinth — Global Issues

European Union leaders struggle to find solutions for the energy crisis. Credit: Bigstock
  • by Baher Kamal (madrid)
  • Inter Press Service

MADRID, Oct 24 (IPS) – European politicians continue to run in all directions to find a way out of their energy crisis. One of them – Simonetta Sommaruga, the Swiss Environment Minister, asked people to ‘shower together’. Others are competing to grant the business of transporting energy from the North of Africa to the continent. All this is not new.

The MidCat

In 2010, a project aimed at transporting 7.500 million cubic metres of gas by linking Catalonia (Spain) to Occitania (France) and from there to other European Union countries.

With an initial estimated cost at over three billion Euro, this MidCat project quasi-blocked just one year later, to be finally stopped in 2018 following cost and impact studies.

Following the energy impact of the condemnable proxy war in Ukraine, Spain has recently proposed relaunching the MIDCAT. But France continued to block the project alleging high costs. Maybe also under the heavy pressure of its extended, powerful business of nuclear plants?

The Italian Connexion

Meanwhile, taking advantage of the deteriorated relations between Spain and Algeria due to Madrid’s support to the annexation of Western Sahara by Morocco, Rome rushed to negotiate with Algiers the transportation of the Algerian gas and oil to Europe through Italy.

But this project hasn’t worked out either.

The Turkish Pipe

At that state, Ankara proposed in September 2022 transporting Russian fossil fuels to Europe through a Turkish pipeline crossing the country’s territory. Also this way out was soon discarded.

The BarMar

During their yet another summit in late October, the European Union’s heads of state and governments launched more debates on how to grant their energy supplies.

At the end, the leaders of Spain, Portugal, and France agreed on 20 October 2022 to replace the MidCat project with a new “green energy corridor” that would be able to transport hydrogen. And they called it BarMar.

Where From?

So far, no accurate details are known of the major features of such a project. For instance: where will this hydrogen come from?

According to the European Union’s data, hydrogen accounts for less than 2% of Europe’s present energy consumption and is primarily used to produce chemical products, such as plastics and fertilisers. 96% of this hydrogen production is through natural gas, resulting in significant amounts of CO2 emissions. So?

How Green Is the “Green Energy Corridor”?

The BarMar project’s defenders say that hydrogen is the future of energy. Critics insist that hydrogen is most efficient if it is used around its source.

Anyway, if it is so green, why has the West, including Europe, not turned up sooner to this source of energy?

For How Long. How Much? Who Will Pay?

This BarMar project implies great costs and, according to European sources, it would be a sort of a “transitional” plan. To what? How long will it take to implement the project?

Not having released specific final details, the Spanish, Portuguese and French leaders decided to meet in December 2022 to discuss those details.

Where Will the Money Come From?

For now, French President Emmanuel Macron rushed to put the bandage before the wound, saying that the BarMar project would “benefit from European funding.”

The European Union’s funds are composed of the proportional contribution of each one of its 27 member countries, with Germany being the major contributor.

However, in view of the big European financial crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and now exacerbated by Ukraine’s proxy war, a big portion of such reserves have been designated to alleviate the economic and social impacts, let alone the spectacular rise of fossil fuels prices for citizens.

The Military Race

During NATO’s Summit in Madrid, this Western alliance of 30 countries, decided to further militarise Europe by increasing the continent’s spending on weapons and multiplying its troops, in addition to further extending its presence in Africa. Such militarisation process implies high costs to Europe.

In addition, following the United States’ huge weapons supplies to Ukraine, which for now are estimated at more than 17 billion US dollars, European countries have also continued to send weapons to Ukraine.

Here, some European politicians started talking about the urgent need to replenish the continent’s “empty weapons shelves.”

Furthermore, the European leaders have just decided to transfer to Ukraine up to 1.5 billion US dollars… every single month… as part of the estimated 3 to 3.5 billion… a month… that the West decided to send to Ukraine.

Is the Fossil Fuels Rush Over Soon?

Not really. Germany seems to be thinking about reopening their nuclear plants to produce electricity.

Norway is reported as planning to increase oil production from the Northern Sea. The United States, being the world’s largest oil producer, has doubled its liquified gas supplies to Europe.

Venezuela, Saudi Arabia

Washington decided that the heavily sanctioned Nicolas Maduro’s government in Venezuela is not all that bad, therefore the US has approached Caracas to increase its fossil fuels production.

At the time, Western leaders pressured the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which groups 13 oil-exporting ‘developing nations,’ to pump more oil and gas in the market.

Having OPEC’s top producer: Saudi Arabia shown reluctance, the US-led West has threatened to punish their own “friend and ally” — the Saudis, through sanctions.

Carbon, Fracking

Meanwhile, several European states, mostly the EU Eastern member countries, have been steadily intensifying the extraction and use of another fossil fuel: coal.

And one more European country however is no longer an EU member: the United Kingdom plans to extend the business of “fracking”.

Further to the United Kingdom’s parliamentary debates around the already ousted Liz Truss Conservative government plan to lift the 2019 decision to ban fracking, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) reminded that hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is a technique for recovering gas and oil from shale rock.

And that it involves drilling into the earth and directing a high-pressure mixture of water, sand and chemicals at a rock layer in order to release the gas inside.

Environmental organisations and activists worldwide continue to warn about the high dangers to Earth of carrying out such an activity. An activity that, by the way, is still widely extended in the world’s biggest fossil energy producer–the United States.

© Inter Press Service (2022) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

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Indian Village Unlocks Treasure of Organic, Indigenous Farming — Global Issues

At Jhargram in India’s West Bengal state, farmers have returned to indigenous and organic farming with promising results. Here women farmers prepare seed beds. Credit: Umar Manzoor Shah/IPS
  • by Umar Manzoor Shah (jhargram, india)
  • Inter Press Service

Jhargram, India, Oct 24 (IPS) – At Jhargram, a far-flung village in India’s West Bengal state, a group of farmers sit together in one of the open fields. They debate, deliberate, and confabulate about the marketing strategy they should use when selling their harvest on the open market.

Two years ago, the scenario in the village was completely different. The farmers were perturbed by sudden market inflation—a price hike on seeds, fertilisers, and saplings. On top of that, they were worried about climate change and the damage that occurs with the changes in weather patterns—late monsoons, unseasonal rains, and extreme heat waves.

The state of West Bengal is located in the eastern region of India along the Bay of Bengal. It was in this Indian state that Britain’s East India Company started doing business before it went on to rule almost the entire South Asia.

West Bengal is primarily an agricultural state. Despite covering only 2.7% of India’s geographical territory, it is home to approximately 8% of its 1.3 billion population. There are 7,1 million farming families, with 96% being small and marginal farmers in West Bengal. The average land holding is only 0.77 hectares. The state has a broad set of natural resources and agro-climatic conditions that allow for the production of a wide range of crops.

However, over the past few years, farmers here have been reeling in distress.  According to recent research conducted to determine the intensity of the agrarian crisis in the region, agricultural produce returns for farmers were meagre.

The main reasons for low agricultural returns were a flawed marketing system; low agricultural product prices; price fluctuations of farm products; and crop loss due to disease, flooding, and heavy rains.

Jayanta Sahu, a farmer from Jhargram village, recalls how the drastic price rise of seeds and saplings put farmers like him in dire straits.

“We belong to the village, which is far away from the city. It takes hours of bus rides to reach the markets. Hardly a bus drones through this place. This was why we used to rely mostly on the middleman to supply seeds, fertilisers, and related entities required for farming. They used to take their commission from the supplies, and we were left with extremely high-priced material,” Sahu told IPS.

He adds that several issues have afflicted the farming sector in the past, including loss of agricultural land, a shortage of local seeds and seedlings, irrigation, and a lack of agricultural infrastructure, manures, fertiliser, and biocides.

But above all, said Sahu, the plummeting income from farming left them feeling “wretched” in more ways than one.

“We couldn’t even cover the basic expenses of our family through the meagre income from agriculture. Our finances were strained by inflation and climate change. We were really helpless before such a tumultuous situation,” Sahu said.

Another farmer, namely Mongal Dash, recalls how he was about to bid adieu to farming forever and instead do menial jobs like working as a daily wage labourer in the main town. “We were fighting a battle on multiple fronts—the low yields of our crops, the high cost of fertilisers and seeds, and climate change. The middlemen who used to supply us with the seeds raised the basic cost four to five times. We had no option left but to buy from them. The degraded quality of these seeds would result in low yields and, ultimately, low incomes,” Dash told IPS.

Witnessing insurmountable predicaments coming from all sides, the farmers last year sat together to decide a future course of action. It was like either they would perish or prosper. After hours of deliberations, they identified the key issues concerning them and how they should address them as a priority. One of the major hurdles was the involvement of middlemen or commission agents in procuring seeds. Another hurdle was the long distance to the city, which made it difficult to procure seeds and fertilisers for themselves.

At this time, they deliberated over a strategy to produce their own seeds and saplings that they could grow and make profitable yields.

The village, with more than 250 households, identified six veteran and experienced farmers who were tasked with producing their indigenous seeds and saplings. These farmers were trained in seed preservation, seed bed making, organic manure preparation, and pest control.

About an acre of land was identified. Seedbeds for Tamara, cabbage, cauliflower, and chilli, with an estimated 9000 saplings, were prepared there. The farmers resolved that no chemical fertilisers or pesticides would be used on seedlings or seed beds—everything was grown organically.

The saplings were distributed at a low cost to the farmers in the village based on their needs.

Now, when more than a year has passed, the endeavour these otherwise crisis-stricken farmers have made is beginning to yield the desired results.

“We are no longer dependent on the outside market for seed procurement. We do not use chemical fertilisers, nor are we importing any degraded saplings from outside. Our village is becoming self-reliant in this regard, and we are very proud of this,” says a local farmer Shyam Bisui.

The farmers, who otherwise had to invest about one-third of their yearly earnings on purchasing inorganic seeds and chemical fertilisers, now save most of their money because organic manures are used. Seeds are prepared in the village.

“The yields are subtly growing, and so are our hopes of good living. We are sure our earnest efforts will bring us prosperity, and we will never perish,” the farmer said.

IPS UN Bureau Report


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