‘No turning back’: Carnation Revolution divides Portugal again, 50 years on | The Far Right

Lisbon, Portugal – The olive-green military vehicles are the same, as are the uniforms of the personnel riding them. It’s even the same day of the week on this April 25 – a Thursday.

This is when it all started, on the shore of the Tagus River where the sun hangs like a bulb over the Portuguese capital and Europe’s westernmost edge.

But the cheering crowds beside the road today, waving red carnations bought from flower ladies on Rossio Square weren’t there 50 years ago. Nobody clapped their hands or posted photos on social media along with catchy hashtags.

On that brisk dawn, the streets were deserted while Lisbon still slumbered, while a revolt was taking birth. That morning, Portugal was still a fascist dictatorship that had fought three brutal wars in Portuguese Guinea, Angola, and Mozambique in its desperate bid to keep control over its African colonies. By the end of the day, Portugal’s 42-year-old dictatorship, Estado Novo (“New State”), had been felled by a swift military takeover.

“We were professional soldiers, we’d been in wars and were trained to deal with stressful situations, but this was something completely different,” says former navy captain Carlos Almada Contreiras.

Contreiras was among the 163 military captains who in September 1973 had come together in secret at a “special farmhouse barbeque” to form the clandestine “Movement of Armed Forces” (Movimento das Forcas Armadas, MFA). These were men who had fought the Portuguese dictatorship’s colonial wars and knew very well that no military victory was close at hand; on the contrary, morale was in decline and an estimated 9,000 Portuguese soldiers had died since 1961.

Veterans parade on the streets of Lisbon alongside crowds celebrating the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution, during which military leaders deposed the former authoritarian dictatorship, Estado Novo [Fredrik Lerneryd/Al Jazeera]

On April 25, 1974, they turned their gaze towards Lisbon’s political heart, intending to seize control of key military installations, political chambers and broadcasting facilities, as well as the airport. At the time, 50 years ago, nobody could predict the outcome of the day.

However, the rebels knew that “there was no turning back,” says Contreiras.

It was now life or death – if the military action failed, the MFA conspirators would in all probability have been charged with high treason and quite possibly sentenced to death. But a victorious outcome might just bring a new dawn for a dying empire in its last throes.

Was he afraid? Contreiras takes a deep breath and recalls that morning when his life – and the lives of numerous others – changed forever. “I haven’t thought of that,” he says. “We had to act, otherwise we would continue to live in this dead political system, keep fighting these meaningless colonial wars.”

In the end, and in less than a day, MFA gained full control over Portugal’s military facilities and brought an end to the far-right dictatorship. Prime Minister Marcello Caetano bowed to the conspirators and Portugal’s notorious secret police – PIDE – was dismantled.

The following year, 1975, a US-backed counter-coup in November would supplant the new government and the Carnation Revolution would come to an end. But the change it had brought about was permanent.

“The people of Portugal and millions of people in our African colonies were given their lives back,” says Contreiras.

As Portugal celebrates 50 years of pluralistic democracy today, however, the long shadows of the country’s authoritarian past are creeping back in the wake of the March 2024 elections, in which far-right political party Chega (“Enough”) gained 18 percent of the vote and drove a wedge through the heart of the Portuguese two-party system, which had dominated the chambers of power since the 1970s.

Carnation Revolution
‘We had to act,’ former navy captain Carlos Almada Contreiras recalls the events of April 25, 1974 when he and other senior military figures finally stood up to the dictatorship in Lisbon [Fredrik Lerneryd/Al Jazeera]

A revolution is born

On April 25, 1974, Portugal became world news. Newspapers around the world were drenched in bright images of celebrating Portuguese masses who took to the streets and placed red carnations in soldier’s rifle barrels and uniforms. Portugal’s “Carnation Revolution” is often described as a near-bloodless military takeover. But much blood had been spilled in the years leading up to that moment.

In the early 1960s, as most African nations fought for and won independence from their European colonisers, Portugal stood firm in its claim to the country’s African “possessions”. These were now dubbed “Overseas Territory” instead of “colonies” as a result of a 1951 rewrite of the constitution and the country had responded to self-determination claims with brutality and repression.

Dictator and Prime Minister Antonio de Oliveira Salazar had established the “Estado Novo” in 1932 – a corporatist state rooted in anti-liberalism and fascism formed in the wake of the demise of Portugal’s monarchy – and kept Portugal out of the second world war. Despite being a brutal dictatorship, Salazar managed to lead Portugal into NATO’s anti-communist club in 1949 thanks to its control of the Azores Islands, a vital strategic outpost.

When the first colonial war had erupted in Angola in March 1961, soon followed by wars in Portuguese Guinea and Mozambique, Portugal was able to source weaponry – helicopters, fighter aircraft and petrochemical weapons like napalm – from allied nations, primarily the United States, West Germany and France.

Furthermore, during the Cold War, the Azorean military base became a vital strategic and geopolitical outpost in the mid-Atlantic, particularly for the United States, whose continued access to the military facilities depended on political and economic support to Salazar’s authoritarian rule. The Azorean military facilities became crucial for the United States during its military operations to aid the Israel forces during the 1973 Arab-Israeli War.

A veteran joins the crowds on a march down Av da Liberdade on the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution in Lisbon on April 25, 2024 [Fredrik Lerneryd/Al Jazeera]

Finally, in the mid-1960s, the Portuguese dictatorship started to implode. The colonial wars had finally brought Portugal’s economy to its knees, and large numbers of forced military conscripts were deserting – much to the embarrassment of the government – fleeing the country and becoming vocal proponents of antiwar movements in countries like France, West Germany and Sweden.

As a navy captain, Contreiras patrolled the Atlantic waters between Angola and Sao Tome. He recalls the first signs of dissent within the army. Within an authoritarian political system, the very thought of rebellion was unheard of. Therefore, the first whispers of change occurred in private exchanges.

“War fatigue and a longing for democracy finally caught up with us,” he says. “As part of the navy, I experienced all war fronts, and it was a living hell.”

A revolutionary seed was planted, he believes, and it grew into something larger – something irreversible. “The revolution was born out of the words we uttered at sea.”

Along with the seemingly never-ending colonial wars, the Portuguese military had started to ease the way for more rapid military rank advancement and promotions in 1973 through a series of new laws to attract more men to pursue military careers.

Low-ranking officers who remained on the lower rungs of the career ladder despite many years of war service saw this as an existential threat. “We were both frustrated and nervous about the development,” Contreiras recalls.

In the summer of 1973, the “Naval Club” had been initiated by the 200-odd military captains who were determined to protect their military careers and refused to be singled out as scapegoats for Portugal’s declining successes in its colonial warfare. The initial programme called for “Democracy, Development and Decolonisation” and to achieve these goals, the clandestine movement realised the only way was through a military overthrow of the Estado Novo.

In September 1973, Chile’s socialist president, Salvador Allende, was overthrown by military leaders in a US-backed coup. The Naval Club decided to copy the Chilean coup makers’ use of secret signals via public radio and convinced a radio journalist, Alvaro Guerra, to join the plot. Guerra would issue the “signal” which would start the military operation by playing a chosen song on his nightly programme, Limite (“Limit”).

Contreiras secretly met Guerra “mere days before the revolution” and handed him his last instructions. The chosen song – Grandola, Vila Morena by folk singer Jose Afonso – was to be played shortly after midnight on April 25, 1974, signalling to the MFA to launch its takeover attempt. “It was well planned, it all depended on timing,” he recalls.

A woman selling carnation flowers during the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution in Lisbon on April 25, 2024 [Fredrik Lerneryd/Al Jazeera]

Return of the far-right?

Fifty years later, Afonso’s song is playing at a cafe on the Avenida da Liberdade as more a million people take to the street to commemorate the “Carnation Revolution”.

The impressive turnout of the elderly, youth, parents, and their toddlers underlines the importance of the dramatic political event – not just for those who lived through it.

Claudia and Lucia, two teachers in their 40s, break down and cry while drinking coffee at a cafe before the start of the commemoration march along Avenida da Liberdade down to Rossio Square.

They are crying for their parents who survived the dictatorship, explains Claudia.

“It’s so hard for them to talk about what it was like during the Estado Novo,” adds Lucia. “Many Portuguese have just put a lid over the past, never to talk about it again. For us, the children of the revolution, it’s been hard to deal with their pain, let alone helping them to move on. That’s why the rise of the far-right in Portugal is such a hard blow – for us and for our parents.”

The commemoration march – during which political leaders make speeches and cheer for the revolution while crowds of people drink beer and “ginja” (a Portuguese liqueur) – is framed by chants: “25 April, always! Fascism, never again!”

Still, in this environment of seemingly overwhelming consensus, some have chosen to march against the human current, against the wave of numerous people. A middle-aged man, seemingly just walking by, shakes his head and curses the revolution. Nobody seems to notice him, and his words are lost in the sea of revolutionary chants.

The man may be one of the self-titled pacote silencioso (“silent pack”) of whom Portuguese scholars have been talking for years, particularly during the past decade which has been a constant repetition of financial crises, government-imposed austerity policies and rising poverty, leading to an exhaustion of trust among some in democratic institutions and Portugal’s dominant parties, the Socialist Party (PS) and the Social Democratic Party (PSD).

A carnation lies on top of a newspaper on a bench in Lison during celebrations on April 25, 2024 [Fredrik Lerneryd/Al Jazeera]

The signs of dissent are here to be seen. On a park bench, another middle-aged man smokes a cigarette and glares at the passing wave of people. From a speaker, the hymn of the revolution is played again, to which the man screams: “Turn off that piece of shit! Nobody believes in that anyway!”

On the bench beside him lies a red carnation on top of a copy of the sports paper A Bola. A woman snaps a photo of the carnation and the newspaper, excusing herself, assuring the man she is not about to steal his flower. The man smiles and says: “Don’t worry, there are no thieves here. The only thieves are in the Portuguese parliament, stealing from the people!”

It’s a sentiment that many appear to share. Chega clinched 50 seats in parliament in the same year that Portugal celebrated 50 years of liberal democracy. According to an analysis by social scientist Riccardo Marchi, Chega’s swift rise since its formation in 2019 by Andre Ventura, a former social democrat and television personality, is rooted in Portugal’s established “two-party system”, dominated by PS and PSD and which became an established political model after the fall of Estado Novo in 1974.

Marchi writes: “The PS and PSD were unable to reverse the growing dissatisfaction of large sectors of voters with the functioning of Portuguese democracy. This feeling of democratic decline was attributed to the elite of the two dominant parties and is evidenced, for example, by the steady increase in abstention.”

Chega’s electoral victory has been at least partially attributed to the far-right party’s ability to persuade formerly reluctant voters to return to the voting booth and to present itself as an appealing choice for young adults (primarily men between 18 and 25) with a deep-lying lack of trust in political institutions. For the first time since 2009, voter turnout reached close to 60 percent, which according to Marchi is a testament to Chega’s ability to attract young voters who are “unaware of the nostalgia for the right-wing dictatorship, and dissatisfied but informed about politics, mainly through the tabloids and social networks”.

This trend has overlapped with eroded historical narratives about Portuguese colonialism and the Salazar dictatorship. There is lingering nostalgia among Chega voters for the “stability” and “order” that the Estado Novo offered its citizens, scholars have said. But the notion that the future is to be found in an authoritarian past goes hand-in-hand with a renewed global populist movement of recent years and Chega’s rewritten historical narrative, which includes downplaying the dictatorship’s global atrocities while outright celebrating it as a functioning state.

A woman holds a carnation flower during a performance at the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution in Lisbon on April 25, 2024 [Fredrik Lerneryd/Al Jazeera]

This narrative has even begun to cross the political aisle. In 2019, Lisbon’s socialist mayor, Fernando Medina, underlined Portugal’s historical global identity as “a starting point for routes to discover new worlds, new people, new ideas”. Portraying Portugal as a positive historical actor who “discovered new shores”, Medina turned a blind eye to the brutality and atrocities that went hand in hand with Portuguese colonialism.

In the conservative press, Chega’s rise is portrayed as “a maturing wine” while the Carnation Revolution, according to The European Conservative magazine, opened the door to political instability, chaos and “left-wing hegemony”.

Framing its movement as a resurrection of Portuguese dignity and identity has been a success for the Portuguese far-right, according to an analysis by anthropologist Elsa Peralta: “In today’s overall scenario of global crisis, former imperial myths and mentalities seem to have gained a second life, often testifying to a grip on a nostalgic and biased version of the colonial past,” she writes.

Chega has been able to ride this nostalgic wave, lifted by a European discourse rooted in xenophobia, focusing on immigration and populist solutions to complex financial and political dilemmas, observers have said.

Uprooting the seeds of a revolution

Half a century ago, Estado Novo’s primary pillars of power were the police, military and the Catholic church – and academic circles. Both of Estado Novo’s dictators, Salazar and Caetano, were well-educated economists who saw Portugal’s universities as an extension of the conservative identity of the corporatist state.

Today, many Portuguese universities have become ideological battlegrounds between Chega’s far-right policy and climate action groups who are taking a stand against fossil fuels-driven capitalism.

The day before the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution, Matilde Ventura and Jissica Silva from the student climate crisis action group Greve Climatica Estudantil (GCE), are smoking cigarettes in plastic chairs and enjoying the sunshine next to protest tents pitched on the campus of Lisbon’s Faculty of Social and Human Sciences for the past month.

This is a group action with various other action groups at universities in Portugal and other European countries, protesting against the country’s dependency on fossil fuels.

According to Ventura, a political science student, the climate crisis has become a perfect engine for Chega and the party’s far-right agenda which downplays the man-made environmental destruction of the Earth and questions climate change as a hoax.

“Something’s changing here,” she says, squinting her eyes against the bright sunshine.

‘Something’s changing here’. Matilde Ventura and Jissica Silva, seated centre, of Greve Climatica Estudantil (GCE), a student climate crisis action group at Lisbon University of Social and Human Sciences, says the police stormed their protest encampment last November [Fredrik Lerneryd/Al Jazeera]

She recalls the early hours of Monday, November 13, 2023, when the climate action groups had decided to occupy the campus ground. That was when police stormed the campus and forced the student occupants out of their tents where they slept. They were hauled to the police station and kept in custody overnight. “It was the first time since the Salazar dictatorship that police crossed the threshold into a university,” she says. “It was a significant and symbolic step. The police were violent against us, and – don’t forget – there are many Chega supporters among the police. But we refused to be silent.”

The students returned to the faculty campus the next day, refused to leave, and continued to make their voices heard. The threat against democracy and the climate go hand in hand, says Silva, a medical student. “The fossil fuels-driven capitalism is the context that embodies all aspects of the problem,” she adds. “All issues – political, financial, social and environmental – can be traced to the problem with climate change and its roots in fossil fuels dependency.”

CGE’s campus occupation is significant for both Portugal’s far-right movements and the country’s financial oligarchy. Lisbon’s Faculty of Social and Human Sciences was born from the Carnation Revolution, established in 1977 on a site that had previously belonged to the military.

Now, the faculty is about to be removed and the former military barracks it occupies is to be converted into a hotel complex. The moving date is not set, but the occupying students of CGE see it as a symbol of political ebb – of uprooting one of many seeds planted by the revolution.

“The circle is closed,” says Ventura. “It’s been 50 years since the revolution, and the far-right is back. Not only in parliament but also as a force against the democratic fight against the climate crisis.”

Members of Chega were there, at the campus, when Ventura and Silva and other students returned from police custody, they say. Chega’s young political star, 25-year-old former university student Rita Matias, entered the campus to hand out flyers and denounce the climate crisis protests.

“Chega was protected by the police,” says Ventura. “But we managed to oust them from the campus and block the entrance by forming a human wall and chanted the same motto as our parents did after the revolution: ‘25 of April, always! Fascism, never again!’”

The incident, she concludes, was a testament to the perils of Portugal’s far-right momentum: “Portugal’s political and economic leaders have no idea how it is to live here. If they did, they wouldn’t waste another minute by moving forward in the same shape and form as today.”

Silva talks of her grandfather, a war veteran from the battlefield of Portuguese Guinea (now Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde). “He often talks about our shared responsibility to make things right,” she says. “He returned to Africa after the revolution to work with a museum, to remember the colonial wars and what really happened. That’s an inspiration for me.”

Veterans parade with crowds celebrating them during the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution in Lisbon on April 25, 2024 [Fredrik Lerneryd/Al Jazeera]

A lost revolution?

All over Lisbon, there are red carnations painted on murals, displayed on posters, visible in shops and worn by people. On an electricity pole close by, someone has shared a question on a poster for the 50th anniversary: “E depois?”(“And then what?”)

Portugal’s Carnation Revolution was “the most profound to have taken place in Europe since the Second World War”, writes historian Raquel Varela in her book about the revolution, A People’s History. But it’s easier to commemorate the dismantling of a fascist dictatorship and the decolonisation of African colonies than to approach the death of the revolution, due to the following counter-coup on November 25, 1975. As one prominent employee at Lisbon University, who wishes to remain anonymous, puts it, “We must not only remember 25 April 1974 but also address the trauma of 25 November 1975.”

Varela concludes that the reason the Portuguese coup in 1975 remains a delicate political topic is that it suffocated a social revolution that “was the last European revolution to call into question private property of the means of production”.

Between April 1974 and November 1975, writes Varela, “hundreds of thousands of workers went on strike, hundreds of workplaces were occupied sometimes for months and perhaps almost 3 million people took part in demonstrations, occupations and commissions. A great many workplaces were taken over and run by the workers. Land in much of southern and central Portugal was taken over by the workers themselves. Women won, almost overnight, a host of concessions and made massive strides towards equal pay and equality.”

Portugal’s NATO allies, primarily the United States, feared that the former fascist state would become a socialist state. The White House, led by President Gerald Ford and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, acted through the US embassy in Lisbon, instructing the American ambassador Frank Carlucci – later secretary of defense – to “vaccinate” Portugal against the communist disease. The United States supported an anti-communist military section, the so-called “Group of Nine” with both political capital and military equipment, as well as bullying Portugal within the NATO community.

When the “Group of Nine” finally deposed the revolutionary government in Lisbon on November 25, 1975, by dispatching 1,000 paratroopers, and clinched power over the Portuguese government, the Carnation Revolution came to an end.

The historical aftermath has been dominated by a narrative based on the notion that the Group of Nine normalised and stabilised Portuguese society via a “democratic counter-revolution”. The United States rewarded Portugal with a massive economic boost in the form of a “jumbo loan” to integrate the Portuguese Armed Forces further into NATO and liberalise the industries that had been “socialised” during the revolution.

Now, the tiny right-wing party, Centro Democratico e Social – Partido Popular (CDS-PP), has moved to make November 25, 1975 an annual day of remembrance. The day, CDS-PP states in a submitted law proposal, “marked the path towards an irreversibly liberal democracy of the Western model”. This proposal has the backing of Chega while PS, the Communist Party and the Left Bloc oppose it.

‘People became squatters’. Silvandira Costa, 61, was a young teenager when her family ‘returned’ from then-Guinea, Africa, following independence after the Carnation Revolution [Fredrik Lerneryd/Al Jazeera]

‘I am a refugee, not a returnee’

One focus of attention for far-right parties in Portugal today is immigration. One-third of Portugal’s non-white immigrants live in poverty.

In Rio de Mouro, a town of 50,000 inhabitants situated 23 kilometres (14 miles) from Lisbon, migrant workers from former Portuguese colonies arrive to sub-let over-priced apartments and take low-paid jobs in construction, the service sector or season-dependent industries.

Silvandira Costa, a 61-year-old assistant administrator and union activist at Editorial do Ministerio da Educação, a publisher of learning materials, points to a row of apartment buildings a five-minute drive from the train station. “All these houses were occupied by returnees after the revolution,” she says. “People had no place to go, nowhere to sleep, so they became squatters.”

Costa can relate to their situation. She was in her early teens in 1977 when her family “returned” to Portugal from Guinea-Bissau, where she was born, in the wake of Guinean independence. “I’m a refugee,” Costa emphasises – she does not see herself as a “returnee”. “I consider myself African. I was born in Guinea, I had my first experiences of smell and taste of food and experiencing the soil and the solidarity among the people in the village where I grew up.”

Refugee status, however, was never granted to 500,000 – 800,000 Portuguese citizens who arrived in Portugal in the mid-1970s from the former colonies. Portugal’s post-revolution governments and the United Nations High Commissioner’s Office for Refugees (UNHCR) deemed them “citizens of the country of their destination” and, therefore, not eligible for refugee status under the Convention of Refugees of 1951. For Silva, that underlined the sentiment of being a castaway in a new society, one to which she arrived without any possessions but the clothes she was wearing. “If we weren’t refugees, then what were we?” she asks out loud. “We left our home in Guinea in a hurry, boarded a plane and expected to deal with the situation in Portugal without any money, nowhere to stay, no work for our mom and me and my sister were looked upon as aliens at school.”

Costa’s mother had left Portugal in the 1950s, as part of an immigration programme under which Portuguese citizens – often poor families and urban dwellers – were promised land and a purpose at the frontiers of the empire. The colonial war in Portuguese Guinea changed everything. Then the Carnation Revolution ended 500 years of Portuguese presence in Africa.

It was a burden to carry, to be the “physical representation of Portuguese colonialism and repression”, says Costa.

People from Guinea-Bissau protest during the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution in Lisbon on the 25th of April, 2024 [Fredrik Lerneryd/Al Jazeera]

At the train station, she approaches a group of young Guinean men who have gathered on the concrete steps close to the train station. They speak in Creole, about life, hardships, the situation in Guinea-Bissau, and the future.

“The future?” says one man and laughs. “We talk about Africa – but the only future we’ve got is the world under our feet.”

“Portugal has an enormous responsibility to deal with her colonial past and atrocities against African people,” says Costa. “Chega repeats the same historical mistake as the fascists did by blaming poverty, inflated living costs and social insecurity on immigrants. They’re afraid of the truth, and now they’re trying to whitewash Portugal’s colonial history.”

A closed circle

Back in Lisbon, at Rua da Misericordia, on the second floor of the old military barracks that was overtaken by the MFA on April 25, 1974, former navy captain Carlos Almada Contreiras looks out over the same street on which his life irrevocably changed – along with the lives of millions of others in Portugal and its colonies.

Now, tourists stroll in and out of restaurants and stores. Vehicles drive up and down the same cobblestone street that carried the olive-green military vehicles that early April morning 50 years ago.

“So much has changed, yet the street remains the same,” he almost whispers.

Locked inside the narrow street, constantly sprayed by salty winds from the Atlantic Ocean, Europe’s last social revolution took place. “It was a revolution for the coming generations; it’s important to tell the story in a way that runs along their everyday life, to make them realise what was at stake back in 1974.”

How did it feel to be part of the collapse of a colonial empire? Contreiras laughs, ponders the question, and then answers: “I’ve never really thought of it. But sure, that’s what we accomplished in the end.”

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‘No means no’: How Portugal resisted the far right, but only just | The Far Right News

When the March elections in Portugal saw the hard-right political party, Chega, quadruple its parliamentary representation from 12 seats to 50, one conclusion appeared overwhelmingly obvious. Overnight, it looked as if Europe’s most westerly country had become the continent’s latest front line between populist, ultra-conservative parties enjoying surging support and more traditional, centrist formations facing crumbling voter backing.

The Chega electoral earthquake – and the narrowest of victories for the centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition over the incumbent Socialists by just 80 seats to 78 – showed how voter support for the two main parties had slumped to its lowest level since 1985. But when it comes to running the country, albeit with much shakier support than they would like, for now Portugal’s long-standing political establishment remains at the helm.

On April 2, Luis Montenegro, whose conservative Social Democratic Party (PSD) constitutes AD’s principle component, is set to be sworn in as leader of a new minority government, and he will do so without counting on default parliamentary support from the hard-right “new kid on the political block”.

“Governing under the current circumstances is anticipated to be challenging,” warns Sofia Serra-Silva, a political scientist at the University of Lisbon’s Social Science Institute. “The new government will navigate a fragmented parliament, with the Socialist Party strongly established as the opposition and Chega applying pressure from the right. For the AD, securing a simple majority will be a complex task.”

So, while the PSD celebrates its return to power for the first time since 2015, the question of how a minority centre-right government will successfully legislate its policies – while avoiding a power-sharing agreement with Chega – will be central to the country’s political future.

That dilemma, in turn, overlaps with a second, more deep-rooted issue: How will a political establishment with an apparently chronic case of withering electoral support handle Chega’s seemingly relentless rise in the polls?

Supporters of the far-right Chega party react to the first exit polls during the general election in Lisbon, Portugal, on March 10, 2024 [Pedro Rocha/Reuters]

‘Cordon sanitaire’ unlikely

Both predicaments have parallels across Europe, but Serra-Silva argues that the idea of a “true cordon sanitaire, meaning complete non-cooperation” – as is the case in Germany, for example, between the traditional parties and the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) – “in Portugal seems unlikely”.

“Despite the centre-right party leader’s campaign assertion of no coalition with Chega, internal opinions and past collaborations, like Chega’s support for PSD in Azores, suggest a more nuanced stance.”

“The ‘no means no’ statement  [by Montenegro] referred only to cabinet formation, not precluding other forms of cooperation.”

Meanwhile, grassroots voter-level concern is rising in some quarters about how Chega’s ideas are becoming increasingly mainstream, paralleling their sharp rise in political influence.

“I am concerned because of the election result but also because I think the attitude of Portuguese people towards these kinds of politics is changing a bit,” says Alexandre Pinto, a language teacher in Lisbon.

“The taboo towards displaying racist or xenophobic attitudes is disappearing and the end result is Chega. Of course, these things don’t change abruptly. But perhaps what was hidden has now become more open.”

While Serra-Silva says a clear-cut cordon sanitaire in parliamentary politics is very unlikely, Pinto argues that on a practical level, some kind of agreement is needed between the traditional parties to handle the rise of a party as notoriously volatile as Chega.

“I wouldn’t call it a cordon sanitaire – the Socialists have already had that discussion. But when it comes to solid policies for defending democratic values, I believe understanding between the two traditional parties must be reached, because, basically, we don’t know what Chega will do.”

The events in Portugal’s parliament last week, where Chega backtracked on an agreement with the PSD over their votes for parliamentary president and vice-president – positions of largely symbolic importance –  highlight the complexities the government faces in navigating agreements, Serra-Silva says, and “showcase how the far-right has disrupted Portugal’s traditionally stable two-party system”.

On the other hand, Serra-Silva argues that historically, finding common ground on numerous policy issues for the two main parties, the PSD and Socialists, has proved possible. She points to a Socialist offer of support on March 19 for a rectification of the 2025 State Budget in order to prioritise the welfare of key public-sector workers as one such area where potential new deals could be struck.

According to Serra-Silva, Luis Montenegro’s future strategy hints at bypassing parliament when necessary and governing by decree, “reflecting a practical response to legislative hurdles”.

“However, this approach has its limitations, as evidenced by the recent difficulties encountered during the election of the Parliament’s president,” Serra-Silva says. “Given these constraints, the question arises: Will Montenegro seek support from Chega or the Socialists?”

Portugal’s Social Democratic Party (PSD) and Democratic Alliance (AD) leader Luis Montenegro reacts following the result of the general election in Lisbon, Portugal, on March 11, 2024 [Pedro Nunes/Reuters]

Can minds meet?

Meanwhile, the idea of using persuasion and discussion to enable society to absorb the shock waves caused by the far right also has its grassroots supporters. Among them is Dr Francisco Miranda Rodrigues, president of one of Portugal’s top associations of mental health professionals, the Ordem dos Psicologos Portugueses.

“If we want more progressive ideas to have a place in the future, we have to deal with a context in which there are a lot of people who don’t think in a progressive way,” he argues.

“If we just fight this, rather than talking to other people who think in a different way, we are doing just the opposite of what we want to happen. We are just adding more fuel to the fire, and we are going to render both sides more extreme.”

His idea that it is by no means impossible for mainstream society to engage in dialogue with Chega voters – and perhaps return them to mainstream politics in the process – was already in circulation on election night. Even as the votes came in, Pinto points out, Socialist Party leader Pedro Nuno Santos said that while more than one million people had voted for a hard-right party for the first time, their support had elements of a protest vote, not because they necessarily agreed with Chega’s xenophobic policies. “I’d like to think he’s right,” Pinto adds wryly.

In Portugal, one key test of the government’s potential to go the full-term distance will be passing the 2025 state budget this autumn. “Securing an absolute majority to do that will be challenging,” says Serra-Silva. But even before that, in June’s European Union election, Chega’s rise in popularity will likely contribute to the far-right’s predicted gains across the continent.

“Exit poll data from the latest national elections in Portugal indicate that many of Chega’s voters came from abstention, making them irregular voters and casting uncertainty on their turnout in June,” she concludes.

But despite this, she adds, the prevailing expectation is that Chega will secure some MEP positions, contributing to the anticipated right-wing rise in the European Parliament elections. “Polls suggest a significant impact, with predictions that the nationalist right and far right could secure nearly a quarter of the seats in June.”

As for whether Portugal’s current predicament with Chega can be a lesson for European democracy, Pinto says: “I think that’s the million-dollar question. In Spain, say, [hard-right party] Vox is not as relevant as they have been, but if you look at France or Italy, the extreme right is rising and seems to be here to stay.”

“I’d like the foreign moderates and democrats to learn from what’s happened in Portugal, but I think we have to see that the extreme right is more relevant than it was. I don’t know if those winds of change can stop now.”

 

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Portugal’s minority government takes office, faces fragmented parliament | News

With just 80 seats in 230-seat parliament, the government will need the support of the opposition to pass legislation.

Portugal’s new centre-right minority government led by Prime Minister Luis Montenegro has been sworn in amid uncertainty about its long-term viability as it faces a highly fragmented parliament.

The Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition won the March 10 election by a slim margin over the outgoing Socialist Party (PS).

Montenegro said on Tuesday that the government was determined to govern until the end of its four-and-a-half-year mandate and promised to act with “humility, patriotic spirit and capacity for dialogue”, while demanding the same from the opposition.

“The [expected] investiture in parliament [next week] can only mean the opposition will respect the principle of letting us work and execute the government’s programme,” he said.

With just 80 seats in the 230-seat legislature, the AD will need the support of either the far-right Chega party, which quadrupled its parliamentary representation to 50 members of parliament, or the centre-left PS, which secured 78 seats, to pass legislation.

Chega, an anti-immigration party whose fast rise reflects a political tilt towards right-wing populism across Europe, has demanded a government role or a long-term agreement to support the AD, but Montenegro has repeatedly refused to negotiate.

Speaker elected with PS support

Montenegro’s precarious position was exposed last week when Chega rejected his candidate for parliamentary speaker, who was ultimately elected with PS help. The PS warned, however, that such support was a one-off to unblock parliamentary activities.

Portugal, a country of 10.3 million people, is receiving more than 22 billion euros ($23.6bn) through 2026 from the EU to fuel growth and enable economic reforms.

The government has promised tax reductions for families and companies, and higher pensions.

It has also promised to quickly address shortcomings in public healthcare, especially long waiting lists for treatment, and a housing crisis, as well as resolve simmering disputes with police and teachers over pay and work conditions.

The government can push some of its agenda through parliament with opposition support but the key piece of legislation – and its first big test – will be the 2025 budget.

Failure to approve a budget has in the past habitually resulted in early elections in Portugal, and it is likely that the AD will be forced to negotiate the spending plan, and possibly other measures, with the PS.

“The PS … must be clear about its attitude: be a democratic opposition or a blockade,” Montenegro said.

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Luis Montenegro claims victory for Portugal’s centre-right in snap polls | Elections News

Democratic Alliance edged ahead of incumbent Socialists in nail-biting count that saw far-right surge.

Luis Montenegro, the leader of Portugal’s opposition centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) party, has claimed victory in the country’s snap general election after a close-run race against the incumbent Socialists.

Montenegro declared victors early on Monday morning, shortly after the Socialist Party (PS)’s leader Pedro Nuno Santos conceded defeat.

The AD and its conservative allies in Madeira won a total of at least 77 seats in the 230-seat parliament, ahead of the PS’s 74. Far-right Chega was third with 46, with 11 seats yet to be attributed after the final count.

“It seems inescapable that the AD won the elections and that the Socialists lost,” Montenegro told excited supporters who had gathered in the capital, Lisbon.

Sunday’s snap election, triggered by Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Costa’s sudden resignation amid a corruption investigation, was marked by a surge in support for Chega, which positioned itself as an alternative to the two parties that have long dominated Portuguese politics.

It took place against a backdrop of low wages and a high cost of living – worsened last year by surges in inflation and interest rates – coupled with a housing crisis and failings in public healthcare.

Montenegro said that despite the close result, he would stand by his election promise not to rely on Chega to govern. It was crucial for political parties in the new parliament to act responsibly and “comply with the wish of the Portuguese people”, he said.

Chega leader Andre Ventura, a former law professor and television football pundit, has said he is prepared to drop some of his party’s most controversial proposals – including chemical castration for some sex offenders and the introduction of life prison sentences – if that enables his party to be included in a governing alliance with other right-of-centre parties

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Centre-right party ahead in Portugal election, exit polls show | Elections News

Portugal’s centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) is poised to win the most votes in the country’s parliamentary election, but fall well short of an outright majority, three exit polls showed.

The polls published after voting closed at 8pm (20:00 GMT) on Sunday by the three main television channels SIC, RTP and TVI showed the AD party in the 27.6 percent-33 percent range, just ahead of the incumbent Socialists.

The polls projected that all right-wing parties combined, including the far-right Chega, were likely to secure an outright majority.

Chega was likely to win 14 percent -21.6 percent, a large jump from its 7.2 percent in the last election in January 2022.

However, the AD has so far ruled out any agreement with Chega, which could make for an unstable government.

The polls put the Socialist Party in the 24.2 percent to 29.5 percent range.

Far right political party Chega leader Andre Ventura gestures as he queues at a polling station during the general election in Lisbon, Portugal, March 10, 2024 [Violeta Santos Moura/Reuters]

Far-right could help form a coalition

The issues that have dominated the election campaign have included a crippling housing crisis, low wages, sagging healthcare and corruption.

The Social Democrats and Socialists have alternated in power for decades but have never faced such a strong challenge from a far-right party.

Social Democrat leader Luis Montenegro, who likely would become prime minister if his alliance wins, ruled out the possibility of teaming up with Chega during campaigning.

But if Montenegro is unable to assemble a majority government, his hand could be forced, leaving Chega as a kingmaker.

Luis Montenegro, leader of the center-right Democratic Alliance coalition, casts his ballot at a poling station in Espinho, northern Portugal, Sunday, March 10, 2024 [Luis Vieira/AP Photo]

Far-right party could drop controversial proposals

Chega leader Andre Ventura, a former law professor and television football pundit, has said he is prepared to drop some of his party’s most controversial proposals – including chemical castration for some sex offenders and the introduction of life prison sentences – if that enables his party to be included in a possible governing alliance with other right-of-centre parties.

However, his insistence on national sovereignty instead of closer European Union integration and his plan to grant police the right to strike are other issues that could thwart his ambitions to enter a government coalition.

The Chega party has looked to capitalise on corruption allegations that have dogged the two main parties.

The general elections were triggered by Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Costa’s sudden resignation amid a corruption investigation.

That episode appeared to have hurt the Socialists at the ballot box.

Low wages and a high cost of living – worsened last year by surges in inflation and interest rates – coupled with a housing crisis and failings in public health care have further contributed to public disgruntlement.

The discontent has been further stirred up by Chega, which potentially could gain the most from the current public mood.

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Voting under way in Portugal general elections amid populist surge | Elections News

Voters head for the polls in an early election that could see country join a shift to the right across Europe.

Voting is under way in Portugal’s snap parliamentary elections as the two moderate blocs, the centre left and the centre right, are vying to win power amid the growing clout of the far right.

Polling stations opened on Sunday at 8am (08:00 GMT) and close at 7pm (19:00 GMT) in mainland Portugal and an hour later on the Azores archipelago. Results are expected around midnight. There are nearly 11 million registered voters to elect the 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

The issues dominating the campaign in Western Europe’s poorest country include a crippling housing crisis, low wages, sagging healthcare and corruption, seen by many as endemic to the mainstream parties, which have alternated power since the end of a dictatorship five decades ago.

The far-right Chega party is looking to capitalise on corruption allegations that have dogged the two main parties – the Socialist Party (PS) and the Social Democratic Party (PSD).

The general elections are being held four months after Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Costa’s sudden resignation amid a corruption investigation.

“I hope life gets better than what it is now,” 86-year-old Diamantino Vieira told Reuters news agency as he waited to vote at a polling station in the northern city of Espinho, where Luis Montenegro, who is at the helm of the Democratic Alliance (AD) of right-leaning parties, will also cast his ballot.

People queue to vote, outside a polling station during the general election in Lisbon, Portugal, on March 10, 2024 [Violeta Santos Moura/Reuters]

“It’s shaping up to be a very tight election,” Al Jazeera’s Natacha Butler, reporting from Lisbon, the capital, said.

Butler said that the Socialists want to extend their eight years in power while the centre-right hopes to win the elections. “Both these parties have been blighted over the years by a number of corruption scandals – something on many voters’ minds,” she said.

“Some voters are fed up with the political system, they want something different, they are looking for alternatives. That’s the sort of sentiment that has fueled the rise of the hard right Chega party.

Far-right push anti-immigration agenda

The AD, which compromises Montenegro’s PSD and two smaller conservative parties, leads in most opinion polls, but it could struggle to govern without Chega’s supporting votes.

Montenegro has so far ruled out any deals with the radical populists, who want a government role.

The ruling PS, now led by Pedro Nuno Santos after Costa’s resignation, could attempt a replay of their old alliances with the Left Bloc and the Communists that allowed them to govern between 2015 and 2019, if the combined left gets more than 115 seats.

Surveys suggest support for Chega’s anti-establishment message, its promises to sweep away corruption and hostility to what it sees as “excessive” immigration, has roughly doubled since the last election in 2022, though it remains in third place.

On Friday, conservative President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa told Expresso newspaper he would do everything he can to prevent Chega from gaining power, drawing criticism as the head of state is mandated to remain neutral.

Political scientist Antonio Costa Pinto of Lisbon University said Portugal “has entered the dynamic of many European democracies”, in which the centre-right parties are being challenged by far-right parties.

A potential AD minority government, even supported by the smaller centre-right Liberal Initiative, would likely need votes from Chega to pass legislation, making it relatively fragile as the nationalist and Islamophobic Chega could topple it at any point.

However, “a PS victory with an absolute right-wing majority in parliament would be the most complex, most unstable scenario”, Costa Pinto said.

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Portugal braces for snap election as far right advances | Politics News

Viana do Castelo, Portugal – It’s been nearly three months since Portugal’s hard-right party, Chega, held its annual congress in the northern city of Viana do Castelo.

But its electoral propaganda remains fixed to almost every lamp-post on the main avenue, trumpeting one of its key messages for next Sunday’s general elections: “We will end corruption and [get] jobs for the boys in Portugal!”

Graft and its consequences certainly play a pivotal role in these snap polls, Portugal’s third in five years.

So, too, will the seemingly unstoppable rise of Chega, already the country’s third-largest parliamentary party behind the ruling Socialist Party (PS) and the mainstream centre-right formation, the Social Democratic Party (PSD).

But along with the wearily familiar tale of a hard-right European populist party netting protest votes from centrist formations battered by scandals, at the grassroots level it’s also evident the Portuguese electorate wants other issues, much closer to people’s everyday lives, to form part of the narrative of this March’s poll.

The March 10 elections were called after long-standing Prime Minister Antonio Costa resigned amid the fallout from a corruption investigation into the Socialist government’s handling of various major environmental projects.

While Costa himself has not faced any charges and denies all wrongdoing, recently it emerged that another former Socialist premier, Jose Socrates, is to stand trial over allegations of graft, fraud and money laundering to the tune of 34 million euros ($37m) during his 2005-2011 administration.

Nor has the PSD emerged unscathed from the spotlight into public corruption cases, after two of its top party officials in the Madeira Islands recently had to resign over a graft investigation.

Meanwhile, the Chega party’s bubble of popularity continues to expand.

After taking 1.3 percent of votes in 2019’s election and 7.3 percent in 2022, polls for next Sunday’s elections put the party soaring to 17 percent support.

That’s still well behind the PS and the main opposition Democratic Alliance (AD), the coalition of centre-right parties led by the PSD, who are currently running neck and neck at around 28 percent.

But it is more than enough to give Chega – which advocates for the death penalty and chemical castration for repeat rapists and whose leader Andre Ventura has made xenophobic rants about “uncontrolled Islamic immigration” – a potential kingmaker role in a hung parliament.

“I think that Chega’s increase, a novelty in the Portuguese context but expectable if one observes the political panoramas of other established democracies, mainly has to do with disappointment with how the current government has performed, together with the idea that a [future] centre-right government would not do things very differently,” Jose Santana Pereira, professor of political science at the University Institute of Lisbon, told Al Jazeera.

“Also, the corruption scandals may contribute to the understanding of both parties as similar, as two comparable pillars of a rotten system.

“However, it must be said that corruption has not been the most important campaign topic, at least in the 28 televised debates broadcast in February – it ranks sixth in terms of the most frequently discussed topics, having been raised especially by Chega.”

As Santana Pereira points out, according to a Eurobarometer survey carried out a few months ago, “the Portuguese were very worried, and more worried than in the summer of 2023, about the increase in the cost of living resulting from inflation, as well as health, education and housing – areas that have consistently presented crises in recent times”.

“And another more recent study, a survey by the Catholic University of Portugal carried out last month, shows that these last three themes are those that a greater number of people would like the campaign to address. Only five percent expressed the desire for the campaign to focus mainly on the topic of corruption.”

Dave Prichard, a British translator and long-standing resident of the area, said “Of all the party posters and banners you see around town, Chega’s are easily the most striking, but in all the conversations I’ve had with people in the last five years I’ve lived here in Viana do Castelo about politics, you rarely hear the topic of corruption come up … It’s more about other questions, like health.”

Health is a primary concern among voters across the country.

“I live in a rural area, and if my two-year-old daughter gets sick, I have two options,” said Milena Araujo, a communications specialist who lives in the southern region of Beja. “I either spend six or seven hours waiting for a doctor to see her in the public sector or I pay and I go to a private hospital.

“The private hospital is still two hours’ drive away in Lisbon, but I know it’ll be less than an hour before she sees a doctor.”

She said public education was also “terrible”.

“There are students without teachers for months and months. Imagine a student in the seventh grade spending five months without a maths teacher, they won’t learn anything, their education will be jeopardised,” she said.

“If you think about it, health, housing and education are the three major things a state can offer you and all three are failing.”

Joao Pedro Barata, a doctor who quit Portugal to work in the United Kingdom several years ago principally because of poor wages, but who continues to vote at home by post, said “nothing” has changed since the elections of 2022.

“Absolutely nothing has improved in terms of the housing crisis and salaries and as a result, other things end up working less well,” he said.

“In my profession, for example, last year many doctors in Portugal refused to do extra overtime, which triggered a lot of emergency-ward closures. A pay rise was offered, but it was below the level of inflation and so the dispute goes on.

“And compared to England when doctors are also in a dispute about pay conditions, wages for specialists here [in the UK] are five times higher.”

Beyond Portugal’s two mainstream voting options, another six smaller formations could see their representation boosted by widespread voter dissatisfaction.

But with Chega currently the clear voting frontrunner among them, their leader Andre Ventura has insisted on a role in government in exchange for breaking a likely parliamentary deadlock.

PSD leader Luis Montenegro has already ruled out the possibility of an alliance with Chega and his PS counterpart Pedro Nuno Santos said that he will not object to a minority centre-right government if the PSD garners the most votes.

However, such a politically fragile administration means another snap general election could well be on the cards, said Santana Pereiro.

“That is indeed very likely if the next parliament is as fragmented as polls say it will be – and with Chega constituting a third pole but isolated by a cordon sanitaire. In that situation, the odds of a minority government being able to fulfil their mandate are low.”

Araujo, in Beja, does not expect a “stable government” anytime soon.

“I’m also afraid everything stays the same and after so many years of government by the Socialists, I think it’s time for a change,” she said. “We need something different.”

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Guinness World Records reviews evidence related to ‘oldest dog’ title | News

GWR originally said the canine lived for 31 years and 165 days, breaking a record held since 1939.

Guinness World Records (GWR) says it is conducting a formal review of the “world’s oldest dog” title it gave to a Portuguese canine named Bobi, who died last year.

The move follows complaints by veterinarians who raised doubts over his age.

Bobi was a purebred Rafeiro do Alentejo who spent his life in a village in central Portugal. The GWR originally said the creature lived for 31 years and 165 days, breaking a record held since 1939 by an Australian cattle dog that died at 29 years and five months.

Bobi, who died in October, was declared the world’s oldest dog in February.

Dogs of Bobi’s breed, traditionally used as sheepdogs, usually live 12 to 14 years.

A spokesperson for the GWR said the review into Bobi’s record was ongoing and it included looking over evidence again, seeking new evidence and reaching out to experts and those linked to the original application.

“While our review is ongoing, we have decided to temporarily pause applications on both the record titles for oldest dog living and [oldest dog] ever until all of our findings are in place and have been communicated,” the spokesperson said.

Bobi’s owner, Leonel Costa, said in a statement on Tuesday that after his dog’s death, “an elite within the veterinary world … tried to give people the idea that Bobi’s life story was not true.”

According to Costa, some veterinarians were upset because he attributed Bobi’s longevity to factors including a steady diet of “human food” rather than pet food, which he said was often recommended by those in the sector.

“Everything would be different if we had said he [Bobi] ate pet food for three decades,” Costa said, adding that all requirements requested by the GWR were met.

Costa said the GWR has not reached out to him.

No action has yet been taken regarding any record holders, the GWR said. It added that any action would be determined by the review’s outcome.

Before his death, Bobi still loved walks but had become less adventurous, Costa previously told the Reuters news agency. His fur was thinning, his eyesight had worsened and he needed to rest more than in earlier years, Costa said.

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Portuguese FM: Ukraine can prevail, Russia a ‘Paper Tiger’ | Politics

Joao Gomes Cravinho discusses Portugal’s stance on Gaza and Ukraine and EU’s need for a US-Independent security strategy.

Once a 15th-century maritime power, Portugal sparked the Age of Discovery and established a global empire.

But, as the winds of change swept around the world in the 19th century, Portugal entered an era marked by decolonisation and a shift towards democratic principles in international relations.

How does this history shape Portuguese diplomacy amid contemporary global conflicts like those in Gaza and Ukraine?

Foreign Minister Joao Gomes Cravinho discusses Portugal’s strategies and reflects on its transformative journey as he talks to Al Jazeera.

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Goa, Portugal to Sign MOUs in Tourism, IT Soon; Will Explore Best Practices, Innovative Tech in Sector

Goa and Portugal will explore the best practices and innovative technologies to bring better tourism experiences to the coastal state, Tourism Minister Rohan Khaunte said on Tuesday.

Khaunte said he has been holding meetings with various stakeholders in Portugal for promoting tourism in Goa.

He met with Antonio Costa Silva, Minister of the Economy and Maritime Affairs of the Portuguese Republic, and they discussed different possibilities regarding tourism development.

“Goa and Portugal will collaborate and share their ideas, knowledge, and sign MOUs in Tourism and IT soon,” an official release said.

It said increasing the air connectivity between Portugal and Goa is the key to developing tourism.

“With the new international airport in North Goa, Manohar International Airport, the possibility of a new route was discussed in one of the meetings between Khaunte and Christine Ourmières-Widener, CEO at TAP Group, Portugal,” it added.

Last month, Goa’s state-appointed lifeguard organisation, Drishti Marine, introduced artificial intelligence (AI) in the form of Aurus, a self-driving robot, and Triton, an AI-powered monitoring system, to augment its life-saving capabilities along Goa’s popular beaches and water bodies.

The incorporation of AI-based support follows an increase in beach-related incidents due to the rising numbers of domestic and foreign tourists flocking to the coastline. The past two years have witnessed over 1,000 rescue incidents along the coastal belt, which have required assistance from Drishti Marine’s lifesavers, according to an official statement.

Drishti intends to deploy 100 Triton units and 10 Aurus units on the beaches of Goa this year.


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