NHL odds, pick Monday, March 20

Somehow, someway the Calgary Flames are still in the playoff race in the Western Conference.

The Flames enter play on Monday night trailing the Winnipeg Jets by four points for the final Wild Card spot, though the Flames have a game in hand. 

Eight of Calgary’s final 12 games are against teams outside the playoff picture, so getting a win against one of their most formidable opponents left on the docket would be a massive boost for the Flames.

Flames vs. Kings prediction

(10:30 p.m. ET., ESPN+)

Betting on the NHL?

When you look at their Win-Loss record, you’d think that the Flames are one of the most inconsistent teams in the NHL.

While that is definitely true to some extent, you could also suggest the Flames are consistent in the way they achieve inconsistent results. 

For the most part, Calgary has followed a familiar script this season.

The Flames tilt the ice at 5-on-5, but they aren’t clinical enough or don’t get strong enough goaltending to take advantage of the fact that they generally out-chance their opposition.

Through 70 games, the Flames rank third in the NHL in expected goal differential, second in shot attempt rate and 13th in high-danger scoring chance percentage.

A team with those kinds of numbers usually will find itself pretty comfortably in a playoff spot at the top of the stretch run, but unfortunately, the Flames are just about the most inefficient team in the NHL this season.

Calgary ranks 32nd in shooting percentage and 27th in save percentage on the year, rendering everything else the Flames do well moot.

Monday night profiles to be a pretty tough game for the Flames.

While Calgary have the ability to drive play against any opponent, the Kings are also a strong 5-on-5 team, ranking inside the top-10 in expected goals rate, high-danger chance percentage and shot attempt rate. 

And wouldn’t you know, the Kings are one of the few teams in the NHL with a lower save percentage than the Flames.

Given the profiles of these two teams, it makes sense that bookmakers have this contest priced close to a pick ’em, even if Los Angeles is comfortably ahead of Calgary in the standings.

But instead of backing one of these clubs to win, bettors can find some value by taking the +360 on the game to go to overtime.

The inconsistent goaltending is a bit scary for a bet like that, but it’s hard to see either one of these teams running away in this contest and it feels like there’s a decent chance this is a tightly played game where the 60-minute draw is always within reach.

Flames vs. Kings pick

Game to go to overtime (+360, FanDuel)