Ukraine grain imports become key issue in Poland election campaign

Across this agricultural region, some farmers like Gryn say they are struggling to sell their grain at prices that would cover costs, leading to overflowing silos and warehouses. They blame their woes in part on an influx of Ukrainian grain last year, imports that were greenlit by the European Union to help Kyiv circumvent a Russian blockade.

The move, which brought cheap Ukrainian wheat to the E.U. market, caused a glut in Poland and sent local prices plummeting, angering farmers. Keeping them placated is a priority for Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party ahead of elections on Oct. 15, even if as it threatens lasting damage to the alliance with Ukraine.

The right-wing populist party, which came to power eight years ago, is doling out billions in subsidies and controversially upholding an expired E.U.-backed embargo on wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seeds. Experts say the quarrel over grain could be a signal of more friction ahead as European farmers feel threatened by Ukraine’s vast farms.

“We are closing the borders in order to defend the Polish farmer, because defending the interests of the Polish farmer is our most important imperative,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said at a campaign event in Tomaszow Lubelski, 25 miles south of Gryn’s farm in the eastern Lublin province, earlier this month.

Ukraine is one of the world’s biggest wheat producers, exporting about 20 million metric tons a year before the war, according to the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization. That figure is equivalent to more than a third of the E.U.’s total grain exports and also dwarfs the 4 million tons Poland sells abroad each year.

The spat is threatening to wipe out the goodwill Warsaw has built with Kyiv since Russia launched its invasion in 2022. Poland has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression and has taken in some 1.4 million Ukrainian refugees.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has suggested that Poland is creating “political theater” over the grain issue and is playing into Russia’s hands. Ukraine last week said it was filing a complaint against Poland at the World Trade Organization, triggering more fury in Warsaw.

But much is at stake domestically for Law and Justice, which has also positioned itself as a defender of traditional Christian family values. And the villages that dot the furrowed fields near Gryn’s 900-hectare farm could make or break its victory at the polls.

With the campaign in full swing, Law and Justice banners dominate fences and billboards in this part of the Polish countryside. Nationally, the party’s alliance is polling at 35 percent, which would leave it short of the 231 seats in Parliament it needs to form a government, according to a recent survey by Poland’s Market and Social Research Institute (IBRiS) for Onet.

The center-right opposition bloc known as the Civic Platform polled at 26 percent in the same survey, while the far-right Confederation party reached 10 percent. That would potentially give Confederation, which refuses to enter a coalition with either major party, the power to spoil negotiations for a new government.

Analysts say that for Law and Justice, retaining rural voters in the east who turned out overwhelmingly for the party in 2019 is key to winning a third term.

“Winning in these districts is the most important thing for them to have any chance of keeping power at a national level,” said Maciej Onasz, an assistant professor at the University of Lodz who specializes in voting behavior. “They don’t have to focus on the big cities, they don’t have to focus on the west; they are fighting for people from the east who voted for them [in the] last elections.”

And in a country that is home to 1.4 million farms, the recent grain chaos is front and center in people’s minds.

The current ban is “irrational” said Jerzy Plewa, a former deputy minister of agriculture. Since it was introduced, cereal prices have dropped further because they track the international markets where prices have been impacted by bumper harvests, he said. Experts say the wheat market has largely stabilized, even if some farmers may be struggling to sell at a profit.

“They are promising to protect them against Ukrainian grain, but it’s an empty promise,” he said.

Still, its helping to keep farmers off the streets. Back at the office on his family grain farm, Gryn chuckled as he watched videos of a demonstration he spearheaded earlier this year where hundreds of farmers crowded around then-Agriculture Minister Henryk Kowalczyk at a trade fair.

Gryn, who votes for the opposition Civic Platform, still thinks the government isn’t addressing long-term problems or the capacity of the railways and ports to deal with the extra exports. But for the moment, protests are on hold.

The grain dispute comes against the background of rising frictions with Ukraine, even as Polish officials say that the underlying alliance remains strong. War fatigue and rampant inflation have given Confederation a boost, prompting Law and Justice to adopt more “Poland first” rhetoric, according to analysts.

Confederation has taken a harder line on Ukraine, calling for an end to financial support for refugees and openly questioning whether Poland should keep sending so much military aid to Kyiv.

Law and Justice “see that some of their voters are skeptical about Polish aid, and they want these voters back,” Onasz said.

But some say they fear the rhetoric will cause lasting damage to the relationship with Ukraine. The two countries already share a bitter, complex history — and in recent months, Polish demands for an apology from Ukraine over a World War II-era massacre of about 100,000 Poles have grown louder.

“More than a year ago, we invited in a million Ukrainians, we opened our hearts, we created a friendship,” said Dariusz Szymczycha, vice president of the Polish-Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce. “But now we are sending negative signals with Polish egotism, and it could destroy something.”

The heated electioneering may cool off after the polls, but more diplomacy will be needed to smooth the entry of an agricultural heavyweight such as Ukraine into the European market, experts say.

According to Plewa it is in Poland’s interest for Ukraine to be integrated into the E.U. as soon as possible. Ukraine can currently sell tariff-free on much of the European market, he said, but is not subject to the same restrictions on pesticides, antibiotics, fertilizers and animal welfare, meaning the cost for Ukrainian farmers is lower than for those in Poland. Farmers in other sectors are already complaining.

On a grain farm near the Ukrainian border, Ewa Belina-Wawryk, who is running for Parliament on Civic Platform’s list, said sympathies for Ukraine are shifting. Belina-Wawryk is also a farmer — and she wants to see immediate negotiations among Poland, Ukraine and the E.U. over agriculture.

Unless that happens, she said, “Poland is heading for a clash with an iceberg.”