TAMPA, Fla. — The Islanders don’t want to hear about your math equations.
Though they have acknowledged that analytics has a role in hockey, they still value the eye test and gut feelings over numbers.
“There’s will and structure to our game,” coach Lane Lambert said Thursday. “Those don’t really get analyzed by analytics. We analyze it.”
There has been recent growth in the use of numbers in hockey — every team, the Islanders included, has staffers with analytics as part of their portfolio — but compared to the other three major sports, the NHL is still far behind. That’s in part due to the nature of the game. Hockey is continuous, random and hard to break down into the sort of individual events that are easy to analyze mathematically, such as a pitch in baseball, a snap in football or a possession in basketball.
Most of the publicly available numbers in hockey (individual teams track their own data) use shots as stand-ins for possessions, a reasonable but rudimentary method of estimation. Expected-goals models, which are widely cited, can be useful, but because there is no public puck-tracking data, they fail to account for factors such as whether a shot was preceded by a pass; such shots are harder for a goaltender to stop.
“It’s everywhere nowadays so I guess you certainly see it,” Matt Martin said. “I think it can definitely be flawed as well. I think sometimes you might have a really good game defensively against someone’s top line where you lose the Corsi battle or whatever it is, but you keep them off the board and don’t give up a ton of high-danger chances. And analytically, sometimes that shows up as a very poor game where you’ll get a tap on the back from your coaching staff about how good of a job you guys did.”
The Islanders’ fourth line, which Martin is a part of, is a good test case. Because they spend a lot of ice time in the defensive zone or on the forecheck, their analytics reflect negatively on their play. But the goal of the fourth line is not necessarily to generate offense, but to leave a physical impact on the game, wear down opponents and keep them off the board.
“I think you can walk around a dressing room, someone can tell you whether they had a bad game or a good game,” Martin said. “We know as professionals. … You get matched up against Connor McDavid, you’re probably gonna lose the Corsi battle. But if you limit the amount of high-danger chances he has and keep him off the board, we take that every single night.”
Martin said there isn’t much interaction between the Islanders’ analytics staff and the players. Taran Singleton, a longtime video coach with the Devils when current Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello was in New Jersey, is one of five staffers devoted to analytics.
“I’m not a big analytics guy,” Zach Parise said. “I just think there’s too many factors in this game that don’t get accounted for. I’ll go as far as shots on goal, cause you give yourself a chance to score. Anything past that, it’s a little difficult to measure.”
Like Martin, Parise cited factors such as the opponent as a reason analytics fall short.
“Are you playing against [Patrice] Bergeron and some Selke [Trophy] winners? Or are you playing against a fourth line all night?” Parise said. “Where are you starting on a faceoff? Are you starting every shift on a controlled breakout? Do you lose the draw? If you lose the draw, you might not touch the puck the entire shift.
“You don’t reset all the time and start over like a pitch [in baseball], you know what I mean? That’s just my theory. I could be wrong. I’m sure there’s value in it, but I don’t stress much about it.”
Three games into Lane Lambert’s tenure as coach, the difference in how the Islanders play has not only been obvious, but has had strong positive effects.
After a training camp in which “aggressive” was the word du jour, we are seeing it in action, in every phase of the game. Yes, that means defensemen getting up on the rush — it is no coincidence that six of the team’s 13 goals have come from their blueliners. But that is not the half of it.
The biggest difference between the Islanders and the top-tier teams in the league last season was the speed at which they played. Much was made about the average age of the Islanders because they played like an old team. They broke the puck out slowly. They eschewed the rush. Watching them and then watching the Avalanche, Lightning, Flames or Oilers was like watching two different sports.
Again, it is just three games, two of them against competition the Islanders should be beating, but at least they look to be playing the same game as the contenders. That comes down to a difference in, yes, aggression. Not just on the rush, but in every phase of the game.
Where it’s been most noticeable so far is on the forecheck.
The Islanders were always a strong forechecking team under Barry Trotz, but they depended on their forwards to do much of the work. The defensemen stayed back, meaning that if the opposition got above the hash marks, more often than not they could get all the way through the neutral zone with some degree of ease.
Lambert has changed that, and now there is a significant degree of pressure at the blue line as opponents exit the zone. That might make the Islanders susceptible to more odd-man rushes if their lines can be broken — everything is a tradeoff — but it has allowed them to keep the pressure on the offensive zone in a way they simply did not a season ago.
Watch Adam Pelech’s positioning here on the far wall. When the puck is played around the boards, he’s all the way at the hashes to force the Ducks’ Troy Terry to play it back behind the net. The forwards do a good job as well, but that is where the real difference is compared to last season.
The added pressure also helps once the Islanders possess the puck. With Pelech and Ryan Pulock already stationed at the blue line, Pulock becomes an easy outlet for Brock Nelson after he wins a puck battle behind the net. Consequently, the Islanders can quickly get set up in the zone and not have to worry about an entry.
“If you forecheck with three guys, if you beat the three forwards, there’s that gap between the D and forwards. The D start to back off and you’re more or less giving the other team a free exit,” Matt Martin told The Post. “Now I think we’re a little more up and together. When we forecheck hard and a puck gets rimmed around the boards, our D are coming to keep that puck in and keep it alive. And then we come back hard to cover up for them.
“You’re gonna see a lot more of that, I think, around the blue lines. A lot more [of] those 50/50 pucks that we’re trying to come up with as opposed to backing off and allowing them to exit [with] no pressure.”
Even in the neutral zone, the pressure has been much more relentless. The little things — particularly forwards getting sticks on pucks — have shown out. Here, Kyle Palmieri does just that, and it leads to a zone entry.
Earlier in the game against Anaheim, it was Anthony Beauvillier who made a heads-up play with his stick coming over the boards, leading to Scott Mayfield’s goal off the rush.
The aggressiveness even has shown up on the penalty kill, where Islanders forwards have been emboldened to push up the ice when the situation has called for it. That approach nearly resulted in a shorthanded goal for Casey Cizikas against the Panthers when he chased a loose puck up the ice.
The Islanders needed to find a way to generate more offense with the same group of players. So far, this is the way that works. The fourth line, in particular, has looked rejuvenated after struggling through last season.
“We love it, honestly,” fourth-liner Martin said of the forechecking mentality. “It allows you to hunt and make that first guy get rid of the puck, and you know that our guys are coming to try and keep it in. It definitely, I think, leads to more opportunities, more pucks going towards the net. You don’t want to give anyone anything for free.
“So if a player’s gonna make a play off the wall, which is always a tough play, and they don’t get it out, then we got an opportunity to turn it into offense.”
Added defenseman Noah Dobson: “It’s not fun when guys are chasing pucks as a D-man. You know they’re coming hard and they’re coming at you. That’s a good part of our game. When we’re forechecking well, we get lots of chances off it.”
A bigger test is coming soon with five straight games against playoff-level competition following Thursday night’s matchup with the Devils. Right now, though, we can only judge what we’ve seen. And what we’ve seen is the Islanders adopting a new approach and running with it.
“I think it’s just aggressive everywhere at all times is what [Lambert] wants,” Martin said. “Basically you’re never giving anyone a free play, you’re never letting anyone off the hook. You wanna keep the pressure on them. You wanna make them execute.”
Problem solved
The solution to having too many forwards coming out of training camp, it turns out, was not to send down one of the forwards, but to put a defenseman on injured reserve. By sending Sebastian Aho to IR with an upper-body injury retroactive to Oct. 8, the Islanders effectively ensured Oliver Wahlstrom, Kieffer Bellows, Ross Johnston and Nikita Soshnikov can stay on the roster without any worries.
Aho, who likely would have been a healthy scratch for games, still is practicing with the team as he works his way back from the injury. He has not spoken to reporters since going on IR, and Lambert has only spoken in generalities regarding Aho’s timeframe for returning. (The day Aho was placed on IR, he skated with the extras for 45 minutes after the rest of the team came off the ice. Make of that what you will.)
He’s already passed the minimum time to stay on injured reserve, so the Islanders can activate him if need be as long as he is healthy, a scenario that might only end up coming to pass if someone else goes on IR. If he is able to come back at the first moment the Islanders require him, though, it would be a good way of having navigated what seemed to be a real roster conundrum.
Lambert did not exclusively go at certain matchups with his defensive pairs, but most of Dobson’s and Romanov’s work Tuesday came against either the Sharks’ second line, led by Tomas Hertl, or their third line, led by Nick Bonino. (If you’re wondering about Logan Couture’s top line, its largest share of minutes came against Pelech and Pulock.)
The Sharks, who head to Madison Square Garden at a well-deserved 0-5, are a hapless group, so take that with a grain of salt. But it is most definitely a positive sign.
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