Grossi urges ‘practical and tangible measures’ to accelerate cooperation in talks in Tehran on Iran’s nuclear programme.
The head of the United Nations nuclear body has called on Iran to increase its efforts to make cooperation tangible and “concrete”.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi urged Tehran on Tuesday to adopt “concrete” measures to foster collaboration. The UN is seeking to re-establish oversight of Iran’s atomic activities but has met various setbacks over how to implement a deal struck last year.
However, officials on both sides suggested that there is some distance between their positions.
At a news conference in the Iranian city of Isfahan, Grossi said he had proposed in talks with Iranian officials that they focus on “very practical and tangible measures that can be implemented in order to accelerate” cooperation.
“What we are looking at is concrete measures that could make this [the deal] operational,” the IAEA head said.
Mohammad Eslami, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran insisted that the talks with Grossi had been positive and productive.
“We continue interactions over unresolved issues,” he remarked. “The important point is that Mr Grossi takes the necessary actions to settle the problems that are mainly political.”
No new deal
While both men said there would be no immediate new deal during Grossi’s visit, they pointed to a March 2023 joint statement as a path forward for cooperation.
That statement included a pledge by Iran to resolve issues around sites where inspectors have questions about possible undeclared nuclear activity, and to allow the IAEA to “implement further appropriate verification and monitoring activities”.
Iran and IAEA have often clashed over the UN agency’s task of monitoring a nuclear programme that Western nations suspect is aimed at eventually developing a nuclear weapon. Tehran denies wanting to build nuclear weapons.
Iran is enriching uranium to up to 60 percent purity, close to about 90 percent of weapons grade. If that material were enriched further, it would suffice for two nuclear weapons, according to an official IAEA yardstick. No other state has enriched to that level without using it to produce weapons.
Grossi has already warned that Tehran has enough uranium enriched to near-weapons-grade levels to make “several” nuclear bombs if it chooses to do so.
He has acknowledged the agency cannot guarantee that none of Iran’s centrifuges may have been peeled away for clandestine enrichment.
Islamabad, Pakistan – The United States has warned Pakistan of the risk of sanctions after it promised greater security and economic cooperation with Iran during a visit by President Ebrahim Raisi.
The first Iranian president to visit the South Asian country in eight years, Raisi concluded his three-day trip on Wednesday as the neighbouring countries said they would increase bilateral trade to $10bn a year over the next five years, from the current $2bn.
Pakistan’s foreign office said the two sides additionally agreed to cooperate in the energy sector including trade in electricity, power transmission lines and the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project.
The gas pipeline project has languished for more than a decade because of political turmoil and international sanctions.
The US Department of State on Tuesday cautioned the Pakistani government of engaging in business deals with Iran.
“We advise anyone considering business deals with Iran to be aware of the potential risk of sanctions. But ultimately, the government of Pakistan can speak to their own foreign policy pursuits,” spokesperson Vedant Patel said during a news briefing.
Foreign policy expert Muhammad Faisal said the United States threats of sanctions are merely meant to dissuade Pakistan and “increase the cost of doing business with Iran”.
“Any expansion of formal trade and banking activity between the two nations will be slow, as Pakistani banks are reluctant to do direct business with Iranian banks,” he told Al Jazeera.
A wide-ranging list of business-related activities with Iran can trigger US sanctions, and the regulations also bar business dealings with Iranian financial institutions.
The pipeline was to stretch more than 1,900km (1,180 miles) from Iran’s South Pars gas field to Pakistan to meet Pakistan’s rising energy needs.
Iran said it has already invested $2bn to construct the pipeline on its side of the border, making it ready to export. However, the project is yet to take off from the Pakistani side due to fears of US sanctions.
Pakistan indicated last month that it will try and seek a waiver from the US to construct the pipeline on its territory.
Washington’s efforts to restrict Iran’s income from oil and petroleum products go back decades. It has additionally sanctioned hundreds of entities and people in Iran – from the central bank to government officials – accused of materially supporting Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and armed groups such as Palestine’s Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis.
The US and the United Kingdom this month imposed a new round of sanctions on Iran after its unprecedented attack on Israel, but the punitive measures were limited in scope and there have been questions over how effective the sanctions regime has been overall.
“Islamabad is cognisant of these constraints and both sides have been exploring ‘out-of-the-box’ solutions for expanding bilateral trade through barter system and border markets with the involvement of local chambers of commerce,” Faisal said.
Pakistan has little leverage
During his visit, Raisi met the country’s top leadership, including Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and army chief General Asim Munir.
The visit came as the two countries try to repair their frayed relationship following heightened tensions in January when Iran launched attacks on Pakistani territory on what it said were bases of armed group Jaish al-Adl.
In less than 48 hours, the Pakistani military carried out strikes in Iran on what it said were “hideouts used by terrorist organisations”.
Yet, the implied threat of sanctions comes at a challenging time for Pakistan, which is mired in economic woes and is seeking financial help from its allies, including key partners such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the US, three countries that are considered rivals of Iran.
Sharif was in Saudi Arabia this month to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and is expected to travel to the kingdom again next week.
Kamran Bokhari, a senior director at the Washington, DC-based New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, said Pakistan cannot afford to get caught in the middle of a conflict between the US and Iran.
“Those two countries are engaged in their own rivalry and Iran sees itself in ascendancy at the moment due to situation in the Middle East,” Bokhari told Al Jazeera, referring to Israel’s war on Gaza.
“The US wants to contain Iran and the tools it has are sanctions. Now Pakistan needs the US and Western goodwill to help it deal with its economic crisis,” he said, adding that it should “steer clear of any move that risks it”.
Pakistan must identify what’s best for its national interest if it is to successfully juggle its relationships with Iran and the US and “maintain engagement with both”, Faisal said, but it should focus on expanding trade and energy cooperation with Iran.
The future of the Pakistan-Iran relationship depends on Pakistan’s ability to use its limited leverage, said Bokhari.
“If the US tells Pakistan ‘You cannot do business with Iran’, then they should ask Washington ‘Could you instead help us in what we need?’” Bokhari said.
The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is caught between two regional powers and could face serious social, political and economic repercussions should regional tensions continue to intensify.
Jordan’s tenuous position means that any regional action – an intensification of hostilities between Iran and Israel or an Israeli invasion of Rafah – can have incendiary repercussions domestically.
“Any imminent Iranian-Israeli war is going to put Jordan on a tightrope,” Sean Yom, an expert on Jordan at Temple University and the author of From Resilience to Revolution, told Al Jazeera. “Publicly, it has to stay out of the fray; it cannot side with any combatant.”
Jordan has pushed for a ceasefire in Israel’s war on Gaza and publicised its aid distribution efforts in the besieged enclave.
But that has done little to appease the scores of protesters who have rallied outside the US and Israeli embassies. Among their demands are ending relations with Israel and the United States.
Since October 7, protests in Jordan have ebbed and flowed as Israel’s campaign in Gaza killed more than 34,000 Palestinians.
Analysts say the monarchy has tried to press the US and Israelis for a ceasefire and an increase in aid entering Gaza, but those efforts have had little impact.
A more recent incident has enraged people further.
‘A matter of principle’
Overnight on Saturday, April 13, the Royal Jordanian Air Force took to the skies to intercept and shoot down dozens of Iranian drones as they flew over Jordan’s territory on their way to Israel.
Iran had fired more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel in retaliation for an alleged Israeli strike on Iran’s consular building in Damascus. A senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander, Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, was killed in the attack along with other commanders.
The Jordanian government said it was defending its national borders.
“There was imminent danger of drones or missiles falling in Jordan, and the Jordanian armed forces dealt with this danger in the appropriate manner,” Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said.
“We will not permit anyone to jeopardise the security of Jordan and the Jordanians … This is a matter of principle and these are steps we have taken in the past. We took them yesterday and we will take them in the future, whether the source of the threat is Israel, Iran or any [other] element.”
Jordanians have strong sympathy for Palestinians. Including an estimated three million Palestinian refugees, more than half the population in Jordan is of Palestinian origin and native Jordanians have a strong solidarity with Palestine.
Some accounts on social media labelled Jordan’s King Abdullah “a traitor” for his country’s role in shooting down Iran’s drones.
Iranian demonstrators react after the IRGC attack on Israel, in front of the United Kingdom’s embassy in Tehran, Iran, April 14, 2024 [Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters]
Jordan’s actions also initially brought the ire of Iran. Fars News Agency, which the IRGC manages, said Iran’s armed forces threatened that Jordan could be a future target if they interfere with Iran’s military operations against Israel.
“The Iranians actually went after the Jordanians and the king and his family very aggressively,” Vali Nasr, professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University in the US, told Al Jazeera.
The two parties quickly buried the hatchet, with Iran’s Mehr News saying Safadi told Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian by phone that Israel would not “abuse its airspace”.
“On Sunday [April 14], the Revolutionary Guard proclaimed Jordan as a potential target as it saw the Hashemite Kingdom as collaborating with Israel, but on Monday [April 15], the Iranian Foreign Ministry smoothed over any ruffled feathers, calling Jordan a diplomatic partner and an ordinary state which had normal relations with Iran,” Yom said.
In fact, this incident could lead to warmer relations between Jordan and Iran. The two have discussed normalisation in the past and Nasr believes this incident may have acted as an accelerant.
“I think the Jordanians, much like the Saudis, will come to the conclusion that ultimately having zero relations with Iran does not really defend their interest,” he said.
Jordan’s tight spot
“Jordan may suffer collateral damage [in the event of a wider war],” Yom said. “It could suffer physical destruction, as well as economic injury from the loss of tourism revenues and potential trade flows.”
In the early hours of April 19, US officials claimed that an attack inside Iran had been carried out by Israel.
Explosions were heard in Isfahan and Iranian authorities said three drones had been downed but gave no credence to it being an external attack, saying only that an investigation would be launched. Israel did not claim responsibility.
Safadi took to social media the same day, posting: “We warn against the danger of regional escalation. We condemn all actions that threaten dragging the region into war… Israeli-Iranian retaliations must end… The focus of the world must remain on ending the catastrophic aggression on Gaza.”
But for the Jordanian government, attempts at reaching some sort of calm in the region have not yielded much.
“[T]here is considerable frustration that allies like the US support Jordan’s national defence, but continually counter its policy preferences and its advice, by failing to secure a ceasefire, failing to prevent regional escalation, failing to get more aid to Palestinians suffering in Gaza, and then even being the sole veto in the vote for Palestinian statehood at the United Nations,” Curtis Ryan, author of three books about Jordan, told Al Jazeera.
“The king finds Netanyahu an impossible interlocutor,” said Jose Ciro Martinez, an expert on Jordan at York University in the United Kingdom.
King Abdullah II of Jordan, right, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, centre, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, left, at the White House on September 1, 2010 [File: Chris Kleponis/AFP Photo]
Domestic troubles
“I think most Jordanians are upset that the kingdom is caught in the crossfire of regional conflict – one they didn’t ask for and one they don’t want to escalate,” Yom said.
A Jordanian researcher, who monitored the protests and requested anonymity, said most people were not surprised by their state’s reaction to the Iranian response, considering the close security ties with the US and Israel.
Some have even started selling missile fragments on an online marketplace.
Protesters did not flock to the streets over the downing of Iranian drones. While some criticised the government on social media, most of the frustration was directed elsewhere.
“Some criticised the government for cooperating with the US and Israel in shooting down the Iranian missiles and drones,” Yom said.
“But publicly, most lay the blame on Netanyahu’s government since the Israeli state is the actor that bombed the Iranian consulate in Damascus, not to mention the genocide in Gaza.”
Still, Jordan’s domestic situation will have the monarchy on edge. Even before October 7, the country was facing numerous challenges on its borders and domestically.
The economy, which took a major dive during the COVID-19 pandemic and had been slowly rebounding, was hit “massively” by the recent war, Ibrahim Saif, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and former Jordanian minister, told Al Jazeera.
“We have witnessed severe slowdown in some economic activities that impact Jordan directly and indirectly,” he said, mentioning tourism and the ambiguity surrounding the private sector.
“Now you can add the threats to cutting [funding for] UNRWA [the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East] which serves at least one million people in Jordan. All of that has resulted in huge pressure on the Jordanian economy that also translates to politics.”
All eyes will now be on Rafah in Gaza, where residents fear a ground invasion by the Israeli army may be imminent.
Should that come to pass, protesters could descend to the streets again.
While protesters peacefully took to the streets in front of the Israeli embassy on Friday in solidarity with the people and resistance of Gaza, the energy of protests, particularly during Ramadan, has subsided, analysts and observers said.
Occasionally violent crackdowns and arrests, paired with what some analysts called protest fatigue or despair, may have discouraged them.
“Normally, if the protests are domestic, the king will replace a prime minister. But he can’t offer the protesters anything this time,” Martinez said. “When [the monarchy] has nothing to offer is when they start to arrest people.”
Jordan’s security forces have experience in managing protests. The use of arrests and occasional violence has taken the wind out of some of the demonstrations in the past, and the longer protests carry on, security forces will hope that participants will lose hope and go home. That, analysts and observers say, has started to happen.
“Protest fatigue has set in, as authorities have tolerated relentless popular mobilisation for months,” Yom said. “Many activists are resigned with a profound sense of despair that their actions are not going to change the situation.”
Analysts say his comments have dampened fears of an all-out war between Iran and Israel.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has praised the country’s armed forces for their “success” after Tehran launched an unprecedented direct attack on Israel last week.
In a meeting with Iranian military commanders on Sunday, Khamenei praised the armed forces for their “success in recent events”, a week after the country’s first-ever direct attack on Israel from its own territory.
Most of the missiles and drones were shot down by Israel and its allies and the attack caused modest damage in Israel.
“How many missiles were launched and how many of them hit their target is not the primary question, what really matters is that Iran demonstrated its power during that operation,” Khamenei said on Sunday.
“In the recent operation, the armed forces managed to minimise costs and maximise gains,” Khamenei added, urging military officials to “ceaselessly pursue military innovation and learn the enemy’s tactics”, he noted.
“Debates by the other party about how many missiles were fired, how many of them hit the target and how many didn’t, these are of secondary importance,” Khamenei added in remarks aired by state television.
The 85-year-old leader made the comments in a meeting attended by the top ranks of Iran’s regular military, police and the powerful paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
Iran’s attack came in response to a suspected Israeli strike on April 1 on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, which killed two IRGC generals among others.
Khamenei’s comments did not touch on the apparent Israeli retaliatory strike Friday on the central city of Isfahan, even though air defences opened fire and Iran grounded commercial flights across much of the country.
With no end to the war on Gaza, and Iran-Israel tensions rising, do US calls for ‘de-escalation’ ring hollow?
In this episode, host Steve Clemons speaks with Ussama Makdisi, professor of history at the University of California, Berkeley; and Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group.
The exchange of direct attacks between Iran and Israel is likely to subside, but the shadow war goes on, which could intensify as long as the war on Gaza continues, argues Vaez.
And as long as the wider Palestinian issue remains unresolved, there is little to no hope for long-lasting stability throughout the region, says Makdisi, especially with the US policy of rejecting equal regard for the rights of the Palestinian people.
Of the more than 300 Iranian projectiles launched Israel’s way last week, the vast majority were shot down by Israel and its allies. Israel’s response on Friday against military targets in Isfahan also had more to do with spectacle than substance. Whatever comes next, Iran’s attack – and the way it was characterised in the Western media – may have garnered Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government some more support in this global battle of perceptions.
Contributors:
Laleh Khalili – Professor of Gulf studies, University of Exeter Gideon Levy – Columnist, Haaretz Mohammad Ali Shabani – Editor, Amwaj.media Ali Vaez – Iran Project director and senior adviser, Crisis Group
On our radar:
The New York Times faces new criticism for an internal memo on language reporters should and should not use when covering Palestine and Israel. Meenakshi Ravi reports.
Kenya’s deadly televangelist
After the discovery of more than 400 bodies in a Kenyan forest last year, Paul Mackenzie – a televangelist preacher – has been charged with murder. Nicholas Muirhead reports on the authorities’ plans to regulate televangelism, and prevent another “Shakahola massacre”.
Featuring:
Ezra Chiloba – Director-General, Communication Authority of Kenya Reuben Kigame – Broadcast journalist and musician Lee Scharnick-Udemans – Senior researcher, Desmond Tutu Centre Rodgers Shibutse – Victim’s son Joseph Yeri – Journalist
On Friday morning, Iranian air defences shot down three drones above its central province of Isfahan.
Iran has yet to announce the results of its investigation into the incident, but the US said early on that Israel launched the attack. Israel has not commented despite speculation that it was behind it.
Observers have, however, been anticipating an Israeli attack on Iran as the next link in a chain of escalation that began with an April 1 attack on the Iranian mission in Damascus that Iran blamed on Israel.
The second was Iran launching 331 drones and missiles towards Israel on Saturday night in a well-choreographed attack, giving rise to expectations of an Israeli response.
But if Israel were to strike Iran, how would it go about it?
Israel has been planning strikes on sensitive Iranian sites for decades, but this response would have to be limited, part of the coded diplomatic and military dialogue between Iran and Israel.
Israel would have to hit a high-value target but not one so valuable it would warrant a further military response from Iran and push the escalation into a full-on conflict.
So what are Israel’s choices?
Air strikes
The two countries are more than 900km (560 miles) apart at their closest point with most of Iran’s military bases and nuclear sites more than 2,000km (1,243 miles) away from Israel.
For strikes deep inside Iran, F-15i Ra’am and F-35i Adir stealth jets would be used.
An Israeli F-15i Ra’am, top, and F‑35I Adir [Courtesy: Creative Commons]
Both aircraft are optimised for long-range, but they would still need to refuel unless taking the shortest routes to Iranian targets near the border. The route would also be tricky.
It is unlikely Saudi Arabia or Jordan would give Israel permission to fly through their airspace to attack Iran because it could draw them into a potential conflict and stands a good chance of inflaming domestic opinion, already vocal against Israel’s war on Gaza.
Flying down the Red Sea and around Yemen and Oman to attack targets in southern Iran would mean a 4,700km (2,920-mile) trip before Israeli jets even reach the Iranian coastline.
The fastest route to attack targets in the north of Iran would be through Syria and Iraq. The Israeli air force would have to suppress Syria’s air defences either by jamming or by cyberattack, as in 2007 when Israel destroyed what it said was a nuclear reactor being built in Syria. Israel “switched off” a large section of Syria’s air defence radar network beforehand.
A technique like this could be used only in strategically important moments like a major air strike or at the start of a conflict. Even if Israel could still do this, it’s highly unlikely it would “show its hand” and reveal a major capability.
Extended range
External fuel tanks added to fighter jets can significantly extend their range but would make them show up on enemy radar.
There have been reports of Israel-designed fuel tanks that can be fitted on their F-35 Adirs that would still allow them to stay moderately stealthy and invisible to radar.
The tanks, to be jettisoned later, would allow the aircraft to reach and destroy targets much deeper inside Iran, return to their home airbases without being seen and fly unaided by the usual accompanying jets needed to destroy radar and protect fighter-bombers from other fighters.
The plan would still be complex and, like all complex plans, subject to failure at its weakest link. Bad luck or enhanced radar the Iranians have not yet revealed could contribute to Israeli jets getting shot down – not the message of invincibility or revenge Israel wants to send.
The naval option
Israel has at its disposal five Dolphin-class submarines, German diesel-electric subs that run quietly and are ideal for coastal operations.
Two of the latest subs built for Israel have AIP, or air-independent propulsion, meaning they can stay submerged for weeks as they stalk potential targets.
One of the more obvious targets is the Behshad, an intelligence-gathering command ship that belongs to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC). It had been at sea for three years and was positioned up until recently at the mouth of the Red Sea near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
It was ordered back to port, and satellite imagery put it just outside the naval base at Bandar Abbas, just within the Strait of Hormuz.
The ship is now in home waters and protected by shore defences but not invulnerable. The Dolphin-class subs are armed with a land attack variant of the Popeye cruise missile, the Turbo Popeye, having a range of 200km to 350km (124-217 miles) and launchable under water through the submarines’ torpedo tubes.
The Dolphin subs are part of Israel’s nuclear deterrent, and there are reports a version of the Popeye has a range of 1,500km (932 miles) and the latest version of the improved Dolphin-class has a VLS (vertical launching system) in its sail, allowing for longer missiles to be launched that would hold more fuel and, therefore, have a longer range.
It would be far easier to attack Iranian coastal targets from international waters, then submerge and disappear. Again, the target would have to be big enough to make its point but not large enough that it has to invite a response from Iran.
These are the two real options. Any other military action, such as using special operations troops – Israeli boots on Iranian soil – stands the chance of escalating the conflict.
The real question is, will Israel risk a full-scale war while it is already fighting on two fronts, one war on Gaza and a slow-burning confrontation with Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
Marc Lamont Hill discusses US policy in the Middle East and the risks of escalation with renowned scholar Jeffrey Sachs.
Six months into Israel’s war on Gaza, fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East are mounting. On April 13, Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles towards Israel in an unprecedented attack. The strike came after Israel’s April 1 bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria that killed two top generals.
Israel vowed retaliation and, less than a week later, reportedly launched a drone strike on Isfahan, in central Iran. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States has “not been involved in any offensive operations”. But the US government has announced new sanctions on Iran, including on its drone production, and urged de-escalation.
So what lies ahead? And is the US doing enough to avert a wider regional conflict?
On UpFront this week, Marc Lamont Hill talks to Columbia University Professor and Special Advisor to the United Nations Jeffrey Sachs about US foreign policy and rising tensions in the Middle East.
French prosecutors say no explosives found on suspect or at the Iranian consular office in Paris.
French police have arrested a man who threatened to blow himself up at Iran’s embassy in Paris.
Police found no explosives at the embassy or on the suspect who was detained there on Friday, French prosecutors said, after the embassy’s consular office reported a man had entered with ammunition.
Police arrested the suspect, born in 1963 in Iran, when he exited of his own accord after appearing to have “threatened violent action” inside, the Agence France-Presse news agency quoted the Paris prosecutor’s office as saying.
But “no explosive materials have been observed at this stage,” either on him, in his car or in the building, prosecutors said.
A police source told the Reuters news agency the man was seen about 11am (09:00 GMT) entering the consular office, carrying what appeared to be a grenade and explosive vest. Police cordoned off the area.
The man later left the office and was then arrested, the police source said.
The TV channel BFM said he had been carrying replica grenades.
A police source said it was the same man who had been suspected of attempted arson near the Iranian embassy in an incident in September.
Le Parisien newspaper said on its website that, according to several witnesses, the man had dragged flags on the floor of the consulate and said he wanted to avenge the death of his brother.
An AFP journalist said the whole neighbourhood around the consulate in the capital’s 16th district had been closed off and a heavy police presence was in place.
Paris transport company RATP wrote on the social media platform X that traffic had been suspended on two metro lines that pass through stops close to the consulate.
Iran’s embassy and consulate in the French capital share the same building but have two different entrances on separate streets.
The incident came with tensions running high in the Middle East; however, there was no suggestion of any link.
Earlier on Friday, explosions echoed over the Iranian city of Isfahan in what sources described as an Israeli attack. Tehran played down the incident and indicated it had no plans for retaliation, a response that appeared aimed at averting a regional war.
Meanwhile, countries around the world and the United Nations have called for de-escalation as tensions in the region rise.
The United States embassy in Paris asked Americans to avoid the area around the Iranian embassy, following similar recommendations by French police.
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