Breaking down Knicks-Cavaliers series, plus predictions

The Knicks are back in the playoffs and back in the 4-vs.-5 opening-round series as the lower seed two years after they were the fourth seed in their unexpected 2020-21 appearance in Tom Thibodeau’s first season as their head coach.

In his first career postseason experience in that opening-round series two years ago, All-Star forward Julius Randle was swarmed and flustered by the Hawks in an eye-opening five-game elimination.

Randle’s availability remains a question mark entering the series opener Saturday in Cleveland due to a sprained ankle.

His supporting cast is far better this time around, however, with the additions of Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart, the health of Mitchell Robinson, the experience gained by RJ Barrett and others, and the internal improvement and impact of homegrown players such as Immanuel Quickley and Quentin Grimes.

The Post’s Peter Botte breaks down the key matchups that will decide whether the Knicks can get by former trade target Donovan Mitchell and the Cavaliers — and advance to the second round for the first time since 2013:

Knicks’ 3-point shooting vs. Cavaliers’ 3-point defense

The Cavaliers were the top team in the league this year in overall defensive rating and fewest points allowed per game (106.9), but opponents shot 36.8 percent on 3-point attempts against them, which ranked 23rd overall.

The Knicks upped their volume of 3-point tries to eighth in the league, and they connected on nearly half (17-for-36) of their long-range shots in their win at Cleveland two weeks ago, including seven makes by Jalen Brunson in a 48-point eruption.


BrJalen Brunson drives down the court during a recent game against the Wizards.
Noah K. Murray / NY Post

Isaac Okoro, the Cavaliers’ best perimeter defender, could be a difference maker if he returns from a sore left knee to play for the first time since March 26.

Edge: Even

Cavaliers’ 3-points shooting vs. Knicks’ 3-point defense

Expanded roles for Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley — and to a lesser degree, Deuce McBride — helped the Knicks bounce back from a few disastrous early efforts guarding the 3-point arc, and they finished the season a respectable 12th in the league in that category.

The Cavaliers’ highest volume outside shooters are Donovan Mitchell (9.3 attempts per game), Darius Garland (6.0) and Caris LeVert (4.4), and they shot 36.7 percent as a team.

Edge: Cavaliers


Donovan Mitchell, shooting a jumper over the Nets' Mikal Bridges during a recent game, is one of the Cavaliers' top 3-point shooters.
Donovan Mitchell, shooting a jumper over the Nets’ Mikal Bridges during a recent game, is one of the Cavaliers’ top 3-point shooters.
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Rebounding

Mitchell Robinson led the NBA in offensive rebounding among qualifying players with 4.5 per appearance, and Julius Randle’s 10.0 boards per game overall helped the Knicks finish tied for second on the glass with an average of 46.6 per game.

The midseason addition of Josh Hart also added 7.0 per game off the bench.

Cleveland starts dual 6-foot-11 bigs Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, but finished 25th in rebounding, with 41.1 on average.

Edge: Knicks

Drawing fouls and shooting free throws

The Knicks attempted the third-most freebies in the league (25.5), with Randle, Brunson and RJ Barrett all above five tries per game.

They connected on just 75.5 percent, though, good for 22nd in the league, with even Quickley slipping to 82 percent after hitting 88.5 percent from the stripe his first two seasons.

Mitchell and Garland average around 10 attempts between them, while shooting a combined 86.5 percent.

Edge: Cavaliers

Knicks’ ability to get paint points vs. Cavaliers’ interior defense

Led largely by Robinson’s offensive rebounding, the Knicks’ 16.2 second-chance points per game ranked third in the league, although they finished in the middle of the pack (15th) in paint points.

Barrett is at his best when he’s attacking the rim, and Brunson and Quickley have proven able to score near the rim with floaters and short jumpers.


Mitchell Robinson pulls a down a rebound away from the Wizards’ Daniel Gafford during a recent game.
Noah K. Murray / NY Post

Mobley (1.5) and Allen (1.2) both blocked more than one shot per appearance.

Edge: Even

Cavaliers’ ability to get paint points vs. Knicks’ interior defense

The Knicks missed Robinson’s inside presence when he was sidelined for several weeks following January thumb surgery, and he finished sixth in the league with 1.8 blocks per game.

Backup center Isaiah Hartenstein also has contributed defensively in the second half.

The Cavaliers were a few notches above the Knicks (12th) in paint points with 52.7 per game.

Edge: Knicks

In transition

The Knicks tied for 25th in steals with just 6.4 per game, and they were 15th again in transition points. Mitchell noted recently that the Knicks seemed to play “faster” and less in half-court sets with Randle replaced by Obi Toppin in the lineup late in the season. Hart also likes to push the ball whenever in the game. The Cavaliers were 24th in the league in transition points with just fewer than 20 per game.

Edge: Knicks

Depth/bench

Much of this category for the Knicks depends on Randle’s availability, but their four-man second-unit — largely Quickley, a viable Sixth Man candidate, and most recently, Toppin — have filled in effectively all season.

Hart’s arrival in February gave them versatile dimensions they didn’t have previously, and Hartenstein has improved as the season has gone on.


Knicks guard Immanuel Quickley, going up for a shot during a recent game against the Wizards, is a viable Sixth Man of the Year candidate.
NBAE via Getty Images

Cleveland’s primary depth players — namely Okoro, LeVert and Cedi Osman — also are solid contributors.

Edge: Knicks

Coaching

Clearly, factions of fans believe Tom Thibodeau is too stubborn with his rotations and heavy minutes, but his decision to bench high-priced veterans Evan Fournier, Derrick Rose and since-traded Cam Reddish in November and December resulted in a 37-22 finish to secure his second playoff berth in three seasons.

Cleveland’s J.B. Bickerstaff has taken a 22-win team in 2021 to 44 and 51 wins the past two seasons.

Edge: Even

Intangibles

The Cavaliers boast the player the Knicks failed to obtain last summer in the 26-year-old Mitchell, the Westchester County product who said of motivation to face his hometown team that he “wouldn’t want it any other way.”

The Knicks need the Garden to rock like the 1990s. They also will need to grab at least one win at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse to advance, and their 24-17 road mark was their best record away from MSG since 1996-97.

Edge: Knicks

Predictions

Peter Botte

Win or lose, the deeper Knicks will be far more competitive than they were against the Hawks two years ago.

As long as Julius Randle is back alongside Jalen Brunson by Game 2, the Knicks’ road success this season will help them win the one or two they’ll need in Cleveland to advance.

Knicks in 7

Zach Braziller

A healthy Randle would’ve changed this, perhaps enabling the Knicks to steal one of the first two games in Cleveland. But he won’t be himself early in this series, and the Knicks will be fighting an uphill battle the entire way.

The best player — Donovan Mitchell — is the difference in a memorable seven-game battle.

Cavaliers in 7

Mike Vaccaro

If the Knicks were 100 percent healthy, this pick would be Knicks in six.

But since their two best players, Brunson and Randle, will both be various stages of hobbled, it’s hard to see how they can squeeze out four wins.

It’ll be a fun series though.

Cavaliers in 7

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Immanuel Quickley’s magic runs out, Jalen Brunson sits again

Starting point guard Jalen Brunson missed his second consecutive game Tuesday night for the Knicks with a sore left foot, but Immanuel Quickley couldn’t post another starring performance.

Quickley, who played 55 minutes and scored 38 points in Sunday’s double-overtime win in Boston, managed just 14 on 5-for-16 shooting in Tuesday’s 112-105 streak-busting loss to the Hornets at the Garden.

“Obviously we had a double-overtime game but I’ve gotta play better than that,” Quickley said. “But we’ll learn from it, I know I will. Look at the film, see how we get better and move on to the next game against [Sacramento on Thursday].

“I’m fine. Ain’t no excuse. Just got to find ways to win the game. We did it in Boston. So just gotta do it every night we can.”

Tom Thibodeau said Brunson was “much better today” but “not ready yet” to return to the lineup. He added that Brunson is expected to accompany the Knicks on their four-game western trip.


Immanuel Quickley, who scored just 14 points, drives to the basket during the Knicks’ 112-105 loss to the Hornets.
Charles Wenzelberg / New York Post

Asked if the $104 million point guard would be playable if Tuesday’s game was a playoff contest, Thibodeau responded, “I leave that up to the medical staff and the player. To me, I know he’ll play if he can play and if the medical people and he feels that he needs another day, then we give him the day. We love our depth. The next guy, get in there and get it done.”


Obi Toppin hit a key 3-poiner late in the fourth quarter, but he finished 1-for-4 from long distance and is mired in a 7-for-39 shooting slump from beyond the arc over his past 13 appearances.

“Just, if you’re open, shoot it,” Thibodeau said. “I think he had a great drive in the Boston game on a closeout. So just read the game, the game will tell you what to do.

“I think we’re shooting a really good percentage from three the last 10, too. I think everyone shares in that responsibility, it’s not necessarily one guy.”


LaMelo Ball (ankle) and Cody Martin (knee) were out for the Hornets.

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Knicks’ Immanuel Quickley mirroring idol Lou Williams

BOSTON — When Immanuel Quickley entered the NBA, one of his favorite players was Lou Williams.

Quickley could be following in Williams’ footsteps if his current surge continues. 

Quickley is becoming a legitimate Sixth Man of the Year candidate — the award Williams won three times with the Raptors and the Clippers — as he plays an integral role in the Knicks’ run up the Eastern Conference standings. 

“Any time you get mentioned with any great players like Lou Williams, anybody that’s won Sixth Man of the Year, it’s definitely something that’s pretty cool,” Quickley said. 

At the very least, the third-year player is in the conversation with Celtics guard Malcolm Brogdon, 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey, Clippers guard Norman Powell and Kings guard Malik Monk, among others.

Only players who come off the bench in more games than they start are eligible for the award. 


Immanuel Quickley is enjoying a career-best season.
AP

Lou Williams won the Sixth Man of the Year award three times.
Getty Images

Quickley is averaging career-highs in points (13.0), rebounds (4.0), minutes (27.6) and field-goal percentage (44.7).

His 7.2 net rating as a reserve (points differential per 100 possessions with him on the floor) is significantly higher than the aforementioned candidates. He is also one of only three reserves with at least 650 points, 200 rebounds and 150 assists, along with Brogdon and Westbrook. 

The super sub was again a dynamic two-way force Friday in the dramatic win over the Heat, scoring 21 points and going 5-for-9 on 3-point attempts as the Knicks (38-27) ran their winning streak to eight games. While the recent trade for Josh Hart, the star turn of Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle’s bounce-back season have dominated the storylines surrounding the Knicks, Quickley’s ascension can’t be diminished. 

The 6-foot-3 guard has been a revelation since coach Tom Thibodeau cut his rotation down to nine on Dec. 4, and expanded Quickley’s role. From that point, he is averaging 14.8 points and shooting 38.7 percent from 3-point range. The Knicks are outscoring the opposition by 5.2 points per game in that stretch when he’s on the floor. He has scored in double figures in 10 straight games and 31 of a possible 34 contests. 

“I feel like I’m in a groove,” Quickley said. “Defensively, I think is where it starts for me. And just feeling the rhythm defensively, I know I can get in rhythm on offense through that.” 


Immanuel Quickley is in the running to win Sixth Man of the Year.
AP

His defense has been the biggest change for Quickley. He has a stellar 107.3 defensive rating, the best among the Knicks currently in the rotation, other than Hart. He has played incredibly hard all year fighting through screens and has diligently worked on improving his defense. Quickley has been so effective that he has been closing a majority of games of late. 

“He can guard multiple positions. He’s gotten a lot stronger,” Thibodeau said. “But I also think his understanding of the league, knowing what teams are trying to get to, his ability to think ahead, [is important]. He’s very good at thinking on his feet.” 

After a strong rookie year, Quickley took a step back last season and didn’t start out well this year. He struggled with his shot, shooting just 30 percent from deep in November while averaging south of double figures. But he has been essential to the 180-degree turn the Knicks have made over the last three months, to the point at which a contract extension this summer feels likely. Early this season, the Knicks were looking into trading Quickley for draft capital. That changed by the turn of the new year. 


Immanuel Quickley celebrates during the Knicks’ win over the Heat on March 3.
AP

A Sixth Man of the Year Award would help his side in negotiations, not that Quickley would admit to thinking about the potential honor. 

“For me, honestly, it really all comes down to winning,” he said. “You don’t win, no one gets awards. So, honestly, I really don’t even focus on it too much. I focus on it day to day, trying to get better, and if I win Sixth Man of the Year, then I win Sixth Man of the Year.” 

He’s certainly in the conversation. As Thibodeau likes to say when positively evaluating a player, Quickley has impacted winning.

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Knicks’ second unit is finally healthy finding its rhythm

Two games after Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau went to his new second unit in early December, Obi Toppin suffered a non-displaced fracture in his right fibula. When he returned a month later, RJ Barrett, a starter who almost always plays with the reserves, was out with a lacerated right index finger. 

Finally, Thibodeau’s second-unit quintet of Toppin, Barrett, Isaiah Hartenstein, Miles McBride and Immanuel Quickley are healthy at the same time, and there are signs they can be productive for the Knicks. 

On Tuesday night, that unit helped the Knicks build an 11-point, second-quarter lead, then keyed a strong fourth quarter as part of a 27-point performance. Two nights earlier, the group was pivotal in the Knicks overcoming an early 17-point deficit, although it also struggled in the fourth quarter of that loss to the Raptors. Quickley, however, didn’t play in that game. 

“Huge. I mentioned it earlier that the bench was playing really well prior to RJ getting hurt, then Obi got hurt and we haven’t found our rhythm,” Thibodeau said. “Now I think we’re starting to find that rhythm again.” 


Obi Toppin #1, Immanuel Quickley #5 and Miles McBride #2 of the New York Knicks huddle in action against the Chicago Bulls at Madison Square Garden on March 28, 2022 in New York City.
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Isaiah Hartenstein #55 of the New York Knicks celebrates after scoring against the Washington Wizards in the second half at Capital One Arena on January 13, 2023 in Washington, DC.
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The overall numbers of the five aren’t great, although it is a very small sample size. In 53 minutes together they have a minus-6.2 NET rating. Their offensive rating is an even 100, a poor figure, while their defensive rating of 106.2 is solid. 

But there has been much shuffling because of the injuries to Toppin and Barrett, Quickley missing a game with a sore left knee and Hartenstein being slowed by an Achilles injury. They showed what they can do against the Cavaliers, one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. 

Toppin scored in double figures for the second straight game, producing 11 points. Quickley continued his ascension as a quality all-around player, notching nine points, six assists, five rebounds and a team-best, plus-14 rating. McBride was aggressive and made quick decisions, dishing out three assists along with his typical quality defense. Then there was Hartenstein, who enjoyed one of his best games as a Knick with nine rebounds, four assists and a block. That included the game-saving stop at the rim of Donovan Mitchell in the final seconds. 

“When they come in and they push the lead like that, it’s tough [or the opposition], because it allows us obviously to get rest, but it just brings a certain momentum and confidence to our team when they play like that,” Julius Randle said. 

Consistency is clearly the key, but so is health. They just haven’t shared the floor enough to develop cohesion. The Knicks need them to be productive, to lighten the load on co-stars Randle and Jalen Brunson. Quickley, averaging career-highs in points (12.4), rebounds (4.0), field goal percentage (42.9) and minutes (27.4), has been a constant. Toppin finding his form of a year ago would be a major boost. Though his 3-point shooting has improved, up to a career-best 37 percent, his other numbers are all down. Lately, though, he has begun to find his game, perhaps as he has shaken off the rust from all that time on the sideline with his leg injury. 


R.J. Barrett #9 of the New York Knicks looks up the court against the Toronto Raptors during the first half of their basketball game at the Scotiabank Arena on January 22, 2023 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Getty Images

“I loved his aggressiveness,” Thibodeau said. “He’s mixing it up, he’s not settling. It’s some drives to the basket, it’s running the floor, it’s shooting the open 3.” 

Overall, the bench is 26th in the league in scoring, but it does have strong advanced numbers: sixth in offensive rating (114.9) and ninth in NET rating (plus-1.8). As the Knicks try to stay afloat amid a difficult schedule while defensive anchor Mitchell Robinson is out for the next month with a fractured right thumb, they will need their bench to make a positive impact on a consistent basis. 

Their latest showing was a step forward in that direction. 

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Knicks’ RJ Barrett has big night in return from finger injury

No, RJ Barrett said with a smile, he was not surprised to log 41 minutes in his first full game since Christmas Day.

This is Tom Thibodeau we’re talking about.

“Whenever you suit up, expect the unexpected,” the Knicks’ cornerstone wing said after scoring 27 points and adding eight rebounds in their 119-113 win over the Pacers Wednesday night.

Barrett’s lacerated right index finger felt fine after it cost him the last six games, and his conditioning was there. He started hot against the Pacers, scoring 16 first-half points, but struggled a bit late. But for the most part, it was a strong return.

“I was trying to be aggressive,” Barrett said. “I’ve been working, I haven’t been just sitting down. Being able to go out there and my team and my teammates having confidence in me was huge for me. … Could’ve had a better second half, but I’m sure as these games go along, I’ll get better.”

RJ Barrett, who scored 27 points, goes up for a shot during the Knicks’ 119-113 win over the Pacers.
Robert Sabo

Barrett suffered the injury on Dec. 27 in the opening minutes of an excruciating overtime loss to the Mavericks in Dallas. Counting that game, the Knicks went 4-3 without one of their top players.


In a surprise move, Thibodeau went much of the fourth quarter with Quentin Grimes on the bench, opting for Immanuel Quickley instead at one of the guard spots. Grimes did check back into the game with 1:15 remaining, and scored five points late to ice the game. He wound up with a team-high, plus-14 rating in 30 minutes and scored 18 points.

“We can close with ‘Quick.’ We can close with Quentin. Just the way that it unfolded,” Thibodeau said. “The pressure that we were facing, I thought ‘Quick’ gave us a little different look than Quentin. I’m comfortable with Quentin in those situations. I wasn’t going to take RJ out.”

Quickley came off the bench after starting the last seven games and had 11 points, five rebounds and four assists in 26 productive minutes. … The Pacers were without starting wing Aaron Nesmith (non-COVID illness) and standout forward Myles Turner (back spasms).

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Jalen Brunson leads Knicks past Warriors for eighth straight win

Tom Thibodeau was close with Jalen Brunson the person, having known him since he was a young child. He had only watched him from a distance as a player, first in high school, then college and later the NBA.

But almost immediately after Brunson agreed to join the Knicks, his new coach had a good idea of why Brunson was going to be so valuable as his new point guard.

“I’ll be honest with you, when we first signed him he started coming in immediately in the summer and I knew right then, just by what he was doing,” Thibodeau said. “Not by what he was saying. Not by anything other than the way he came in and the way he worked each and every day. I knew that was exactly what we needed.”

Through the season’s first 31 games — in good times and bad, when he’s at less than 100 percent, when games are on the line — it has become clear what the addition of Brunson has meant to the Knicks. After Brunson inked that four-year, $104 million deal to leave the Mavericks, there was a narrative that he was overpaid. So far, it has been the opposite.

Jalen Brunson drives to the basket during the Knicks’ 132-94 blowout win over the Warriors.
Robert Sabo

His brilliant first season as a Knick continued Tuesday, in the form of a 22-point, five-assist, no-turnover masterpiece that led the Knicks to a 132-94 blowout of the defending champion Warriors and extended their NBA-leading win streak to eight. For the first time in nine meetings at the Garden, the Knicks beat the Warriors. This time, they had the star point guard on their side, as Golden State was without Stephen Curry due to a left shoulder injury, and they treated the Warriors like a sparring partner, instead of the other way around.

Brunson set the tone — with his scoring in the first half and passing after the break. He had plenty of help, four teammates in double figures. Immanuel Quickley snapped out of a shooting slump to hit five 3-pointers and score 22 points, Quentin Grimes had 19 points as he continued his impressive play and RJ Barrett contributed 18 points and five assists. Julius Randle was again a force inside, notching 15 points, 12 rebounds and five assists. Jordan Poole led the Warriors (15-17) with 26 points.

Immanuel Quickley, who scored 22 points, shoots a jumper during the Knicks’ blowout win.
Robert Sabo

After averaging over 27 points on the recent 3-0 road trip, Brunson picked up where he left off. He scored 16 points in the opening half on a variety of midrange jumpers, and went on a personal 9-0 run in the second quarter that gave the Knicks their largest lead of the first half at 57-43.

The ball moved well in the opening half, the Knicks racking up 15 assists on 24 made field goals and shooting a blistering 52.2 percent from the field. They hit 10 of their 19 3-point attempts, three apiece from Grimes and Quickley, and were dominant on the glass, owning a 22-14 edge. The lead was 13 at the break, and really could’ve been larger had the Warriors not shot so well from deep, making eight of 21 attempts.

Mitchell Robinson slams one home during the Knicks’ dominant victory.
Robert Sabo

There was a scare late in the first half that halted the positive vibes momentarily. Grimes landed on the foot of Warriors guard Ty Jerome, and appeared to turn his right ankle. Jerome was assessed a Flagrant 1. Grimes hit two free throws, came out of the game, but started the second half.

Brunson used the pass instead of the shot in the third quarter, stacking up four assists in the early portion of the period as the Knicks threatened to run the Warriors off the Garden floor. After hitting a jumper, Brunson set up a Grimes 3-pointer and Barrett layup on consecutive possessions, keying a 16-6 run that pushed the Knicks lead to a then game-high 21. It nearly doubled from there, ending in a 38-point win.

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Knicks’ Quentin Grimes regains 3-point shooting touch

DETROIT — The Knicks’ team-wide shooting malaise from 3-point range hadn’t bypassed Quentin Grimes since he returned from weeks of injury uncertainty.

But the second-year guard rediscovered his outside touch Tuesday night, nailing three of four shots from long distance and finishing with a season-high 16 points in the Knicks’ 140-110 win over Detroit.

“I think he’s starting to find his rhythm offensively,” Tom Thibodeau said after the game.

Grimes made his fifth consecutive start after dealing with a nagging foot injury since training camp. He connected on 38.1 percent from long distance as a rookie, but he missed 20 of his first 26 tries from beyond the arc this season through Sunday’s loss to the Grizzlies.

“I use a lot of legs in my jump shot, but I know the work I put in. It’ll come around,” Grimes said before the game. “It’s only four or five games in, just being at full game speed with 30-plus minutes. So I know it’ll come, for sure. Just gotta keep getting my legs underneath me.”

Quentin Grimes
NBAE via Getty Images

Thibodeau emptied the bench in the blowout, but former starter Evan Fournier — making $18 million this season — didn’t get off the bench for an eighth straight game.

“Outside of hard, there’s nothing else to say,” Fournier said. “Trying to do my job, be supportive, be a good teammate, and do my work. And that’s it.”


Immanuel Quickley had been questionable to play with the sore knee that knocked him out of Sunday’s game against Memphis, but he scored 15 points in 21 minutes.


Derrick Rose said the toe issue that kept him out of two games last week was suffered ahead of the game in Phoenix that he departed at halftime on Nov. 20.

Rose, who played 12 minutes Sunday against Memphis in his return to the rotation, said the injury was “a toenail problem,” but he’s “towards the end of it now.” He scored five points in a season-high 25 minutes.


The Knicks waived Feron Hunt from a two-way contract and signed forward DaQuan Jeffries to a two-way deal. Jeffries attended training camp with the Knicks and has been playing for their Westchester G-League affiliate.

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