Tag: Economic development

Locust outbreak in Afghanistan threatens wheat harvest — Global Issues

The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) sounded the alarm on Wednesday after locusts were spotted in the country’s north and northeast. FAO said that a “full outbreak” this year could destroy up to 1.2 million metric tonnes of wheat, or a quarter of the total annual harvest.

FAO Representative in Afghanistan Richard Trenchard said that together with partners, the agency was racing to help reduce the impact of the outbreak.

With pesticides in short supply, thousands of people in communities across the affected provinces were working “day and night” to eradicate the pests using “traditional mechanical control methods” before they become adults and begin to swarm, he said.

Left untreated, the Moroccan Locust population could increase 100-fold in the next year, according to FAO.

Earlier this year, the UN World Food Programme warned that six million Afghans were one step away from famine.

‘Huge concern’

Sightings of locusts at different development stages have been made in Badakhshan, Badghis, Baghlan, Balkh, Kunduz, Samangan, Sar-e-Pul and Takhar, with fresh reports coming in from Heart and Ghor provinces.

“The reports of Moroccan Locust outbreak in Afghanistan’s wheat basket is a huge concern”, said Mr. Trenchard.

“The Moroccan locust eats more than 150 species of plants, including tree crops, pastures and 50 food crops, all of which grow in Afghanistan. It represents an enormous threat to farmers, communities and the entire country,” he added.

He noted that the last two big infestations which took place 20 and 40 years ago, cost the country an estimated 8 per cent, and 25 per cent of production.

“Harvest forecasts this year are the best we have seen for the last three years – but this outbreak threatens to destroy all these recent gains and dramatically worsen the food insecurity situation later this year and into next year,” the FAO Representative continued.

The Moroccan Locust is ranked among the most economically damaging plant pests anywhere in the world, and the value of the potential loss, adds up to between $280 million and a staggering $480 million, going by today’s prices, FAO warned.

The agency said that the year had seen “perfect” conditions for a locust outbreak so far, in the north and northeast, with over-grazing, drought and very limited control measures, creating an “ideal environment for locusts to hatch and swarm.”

© FAO/Hashim Azizi

Moroccan locusts are poured into a pit during mechanical control in Baghlan, Afghanistan.

Swinging into action

“The alarm bells rang late, but FAO, its incredible NGO partners, local communities and local authorities sprang into immediate action,” said Mr. Trenchard.

“Chemical supplies were low across the country so we were forced to focus on traditional ‘mechanical control’ methods to reduce the impact of the outbreak.”

He said that cash-for-work had been a way “to put money into the pockets of farmers most at risk while accelerating mechanical control in communities across the North and Northeast regions”, and there had been “a strong, rapid and encouraging response from the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, although their capacity to respond is heavily constrained by a lack of resources”.

Ominous threat

Typically, after decimating pasture, large locust hopper bands and adult swarms move down to cropland areas and eat rain-fed and irrigated wheat and other crops.

FAO warned that there is not a single crop which is spared from Moroccan Locust damage.

If numbers do increase up to 100-fold, it would create even bigger problems for agriculture and food security in Afghanistan, and neighbouring countries.

If the Moroccan locust population is left untreated, it could increase its numbers by 100-fold in the next year, creating even bigger problems for agriculture and food security for Afghanistan and that of its neighbours.

“Chemical control methods are far more effective than mechanical control”, said Mr. Trenchard.

“Afghanistan used to have a very strong locust control system in place. But this has been heavily eroded in the last two years. At this point in time, all we can hope is that the mechanical control approaches will reduce the overall impact of the swarms. But we must start now to prevent 2024 from seeing even bigger outbreaks”, he concluded.

Check out our Latest News and Follow us at Facebook

Original Source

End ‘alarmist narratives’ on population growth and recognize women’s rights: UNFPA — Global Issues

In its 2023 State of World Population report, UNFPA said that while reaching the milestone of eight billion people on Earth was a reminder of “our unprecedented gains”, concerns over the number were “causing anxiety, and driving more governments to try to influence fertility rates.”

However, the agency notes that thriving and inclusive societies can be built, regardless of population size, if countries are prepared to radically rethink how we talk about, and plan for, population change.

“The relationship between reproductive autonomy and healthier lives is an uncontested truth”, said UNFPA’s Executive Director, Natalia Kanem, in her foreword to the report.

Empowerment yields dividends

“As women are empowered to make choices about their bodies and lives, they and their families thrive – and their societies thrive as well.”

However that was not the message most received at the news of the eight billion milestone last November. “Instead, many headlines warned of a world teetering into overpopulation”, leaving the rights and potential of individuals, to “fade too easily into the background”

“Over and over, we see birth rates identified as a problem – and a solution – with little acknowledgement of the agency of the people doing the birthing”, Ms. Kanem added.

Stating the facts

The key statistics, clearly demonstrate the lack of agency experienced by millions of women worldwide. Around 24 per cent of women and girls, are unable to say no to sex, while 11 per cent are unable to make decisions over contraception.

A survey of eight countries for the report, shows that people exposed to media or conversations over population growth, were more likely to see it as “too high”.

The demographics paint a more nuanced picture, said UNFPA. Two-thirds of people are now living in “low fertility contexts”, while just eight countries will account for half the projected growth in population by 2050.

Too often, the reproductive goals of individuals, are being thwarted, due to unplanned pregnancies, lack of access to contraception, or quality obstetric care, infertility, and economic instability, said UNFPA.

Furthermore, blaming fertility rates for climate change, will totally fail to hold the greatest carbon emitters to account. Out of eight billion, 5.5 billion simply don’t make enough money to influence carbon emission increases.

Source: UNFPA/YouGov survey

Views on global fertility rate held by survey respondents.

Gender equality key

The best solution for managing population change and for building resilient societies, UNFPA argues, is to advance gender equality.

Doing so, “is an often-overlooked solution”, said Ms. Kanem: “In ageing, low-fertility countries, with labour productivity concerns, achieving gender parity in the workforce is considered the most effective way to improve productivity and income growth.

“In high-fertility countries, empowerment through education and family planning, is known to yield enormous dividends in the form of economic growth and human capital development”, she added.

Start with bodily autonomy

The UNFPA chief said this was the main reason why the agency is calling for “expanded efforts to realize bodily autonomy” and support sexual and reproductive health and rights for everyone.

This right, she added, “should be the starting point for all conversations about population.”

Policy prescription

UNFPA in the report, is calling on all governments to uphold human rights, strengthen pension and healthcare systems, promote active and healthy ageing, protect migrants’ rights, and seek to mitigate the damaging impact of climate change.

Check out our Latest News and Follow us at Facebook

Original Source

UN predicts restrictions on women’s rights will worsen economic catastrophe — Global Issues

The Afghanistan Socio-Economic Outlook 2023, released by the UN Development Programme (UNDP), provides an overview of the fallout resulting from the takeover of Afghanistan by its present-day de facto rulers, the Taliban, in August 2021.

Immediately after the Taliban assumed power, the Afghan economy collapsed, accelerating Afghanistan’s decade-long slide into poverty; with a population estimated by the UN at about 40 million and GDP of $14.3 billion in 2021, Afghanistan is among the countries with the lowest per capita income in the world, with around 85 per cent of the population estimated to be living below the poverty line.

© UNICEF/Arezo Haidary

Displaced children livingi in Khoshi District in Afghanistan receive hygeine kits.

Overwhelming dependence on international aid

Whilst the report points to some encouraging signs (a rise in exports, an expected eight percent increase in domestic fiscal revenue, stabilization of the exchange rate, and a reduction in inflation), it explains that this is largely down to the large-scale international aid funding ($3.7 billion in 2022, $3.2 billion of which was provided by the UN) sent to Afghanistan in 2022.

This does not point to a lasting recovery: income per person is expected to decline this year and in 2024: UNDP modelling suggests that, if aid drops by 30 per cent, inflation could reach 10 percent in 2024, and average incomes could fall by 40 per cent.

Any reduction in international aid will worsen the economic prospects of Afghanistan, and extreme poverty will perpetuate for decades: the UN aid appeal of $4.6 billion for international assistance in 2023 is therefore the minimum required to help Afghans in need.

No escape from poverty without women in the workplace

Surayo Buzurukova, Deputy Resident Representative, UNDP Afghanistan, at the UNDP office in Kabul.

Surayo Buzurukova, the UNDP Deputy Resident Representative in Afghanistan, told UN News that the Taliban’s decision to highly restrict women’s ability to study and work is an important reason for the economic woes of the country.

“We have run simulations to see how the removal of women from the workforce will affect the economy going forward,” said Ms. Buzurukova. “We calculated that it will not be possible to achieve growth and reduce poverty without women. That’s the message we try to deliver when we speak to the de facto authorities.”

Ms. Buzurukova remains hopeful that the situation will, eventually become less oppressive for women, particularly in the provinces, where the support of women aid workers is in high demand.

“After August 2021, it was difficult to work here, and it took time to be able to engage with the Taliban and ensure that they listened to me. But now I have created a network of trust with senior members of the de facto authorities, at the provincial as well as the national level; it’s very important that they understand the importance of women to the economy.

We continue to deliver services across the country, through our NGO partners, and we have exemptions for the health and education sector, where women can continue to work but, of course the ban is a challenge and staff morale is affected.”

© UNICEF/Frank Dejongh

A child is vaccinated against polio during a polio mobillisation campaign in Kandahar, Afghanistan.

Check out our Latest News and Follow us at Facebook

Original Source

5 things to know about the Financing for Development Forum — Global Issues

There are so many conflicts, humanitarian disasters, extreme weather events and economic upheavals taking place in the world, that a new word is being used to describe the current state of affairs: the “polycrisis”.

The word appeared in 2022, a year that began with tentative hopes that the global economy would begin to recover from the huge disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic, but was soon dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Amidst all of these competing crises, many countries simply don’t have the resources to invest in recovery, climate action, and sustainable development.

This is the challenging environment in which the 2023 Financing for Development (FfD) Forum is taking place at UN Headquarters, between 17 and 20 April, aimed at pushing forward policies to address global developmental issues, from crippling debt, to under-development, and food insecurity.

Here are five things to know about this year’s FfD Forum.

1) Why is this year’s Forum important?

© FAO/Mani Tese/Leonel Raimo

Local community members in Quelimane, Mozambique, restore mangrove forests to prevent flooding.

2023 is shaping up to be a pivotal time for sustainable development. This year marks the midpoint between 2015, which saw the launch of the Agenda for Sustainable Development, and 2030, the deadline for completion of the Agenda’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The UN is planning to inject fresh momentum towards achieving the Goals at a major SDG Summit in September. However, no progress will be made without significant funding

In February, UN Secretary-General António Guterres acknowledged that the SDGs are way off track, and launched an SDG Stimulus plan, which calls for richer countries to funnel an extra $500 billion each year towards financing the SDGs. “Investing in the SDGs is both sensible and feasible,” he said. “It is a win-win for the world, as the social and economic rates of return on sustainable development in developing countries is very high.”

The Stimulus plan also calls for the international financial system to be transformed, so that the crippling debt burdens of developing countries are reduced, and access to funding is made easier. Making this transformation a reality will be on the agenda of this year’s FfD Forum.

© FAO/Eduardo Soteras

Women sort coffee beans in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

2) What are the main issues?

According to the 2023 Financing for sustainable Development Report, the number of people facing acute food insecurity has doubled, compared to pre-pandemic levels (from 135 million in 2019 to a projected 345 million in 2023). The war in Ukraine has led to higher food prices, up 50 per cent in 2022 compared to 2019.

The industrialization of least developed countries and many African countries is not progressing as hoped: the 2030 Agenda calls for a doubling of added value from manufacturing in African countries by the end of the decade. That means making and selling more products rather than selling the raw materials to other countries.

Significantly, added value actually fell from around 10 per cent of GDP in 2000 to nine per cent in 2021.

Debt repayments are also hobbling poorer nations: in 2022, 25 developing countries had to dedicate more than a fifth of their total revenues to servicing public external debt.

And gender inequality remains a big drag on development: in 115 countries women cannot run a business the same way as men.

© ILO/Marcel Crozet

Dock workers unload cargo from a ship in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

3) Which potential solutions will be discussed?

The Forum’s agenda will be based largely on the findings of the 2023 Financing for Sustainable Development Report, released on 5 April, which calls for stronger tax systems, more private and public investment for sustainable development, and reforms of the international financial system to allow more resources to be raised.

The report also argues that massive investments are urgently needed to accelerate transformations in areas such as electricity supply, industry, farming, transportation, and buildings, to bring about a “new green industrial age.”

Industrialization is often associated with pollution and waste, but it has historically been an engine for progress. The “green industrialization” proposed in the Report involves supporting low carbon industries, including renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, the digital economy, and the development of policies that lead to investment in sustainable activities, whilst reducing the negative environmental impact of industries.

There are positive signs that the message is beginning to get through: global spending on the energy transition rose to a record high of $1.1 trillion in 2022, surpassing fossil fuel system investments for the first time ever, and the green economy has become the fifth largest industrial sector by market value, $7.2 trillion in 2021.

© UNICEF/Patrick Brown

A boy carries water in a refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh.

4) What are the risks of inaction?

The gulf between rich and poor is getting deeper, and, without a complete overhaul of the global economy, it’s expected that 574 million people – nearly seven per cent of the world’s population – will still be living in extreme poverty in 2030. In this scenario, external financing needs for LDCs and other low-income countries are expected to increase from $172 billion to $220 billion in the next four years.

Amongst the recommendations is a warning; if the suggested reforms are piecemeal, incomplete, or fail to take the SDGs into account, sustainable development will be unachievable, putting the 2030 Agenda and climate targets out of reach.

© Climate Visuals Countdown/Joan Sullivan

A technician works on a wind turbine blade in eastern Quebec, Canada.

5) What comes next?

No-one is under any illusion that the task ahead is huge and experts agree that long-term sustainable development will be elusive in contexts where humanitarian crises persist.

Ultimately, the UN’s economists want the FfD process to lead to a profound reform of global institutions that better address developing countries’ immediate needs.

Check out our Latest News and Follow us at Facebook

Original Source

UN chief — Global Issues

The Secretary-General pointed to reports showing that, since the pandemic, the richest one percent of people around the world have captured nearly twice as much new wealth as the rest of the world combined.

Inequalities within some countries, he said, are regressing towards early 20th Century levels, a time when women did not have the right to vote; and before widespread acceptance of the concept of social protection.

The UN’s SDG Stimulus Plan, explained the UN chief, aims to boost investments that will help to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), relieve the debt burden of developing countries, and improving access to funding.

Mr. Guterres called for Multilateral Development Banks, such as the World Bank and Asian Development Bank, to use their funds to attract more private finance to developing countries, and for Member States to meet their government aid commitments.

In the longer term, said the UN chief, the global financial architecture, which “has failed countries at their moment of greatest need,” needs to be comprehensively overhauled, in favour of a system that is “coherent and coordinated, and reflects today’s global economic reality.”

Decades of progress reversed: ECOSOC President

In her opening statement, Lachezara Stoeva, the President of the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), declared that the events of the past year have reversed three decades of progress in poverty reduction.

Ms. Stoeva called for immediate measures on debt relief, investment, climate finance, and international tax cooperation, and described the Forum as an opportunity to find bold solutions that meet the scale of financing challenges.

“We cannot afford to come up short,” said the ECOSOC president. “Too much is at stake. Without securing the means of implementation, the 2030 Agenda will fall out of reach, with stark consequences for people and planet.”

‘Critical step’ towards transformation: Kőrösi

Csaba Kőrösi, the President of the UN General Assembly, remarked that the decline in global economic growth, rising inflation, and looming debt crisis can be attributed to a lack of a coordinated international response.

“It is imperative that we come together as a global community, across all sectors, to tackle these challenges,” said Mr. Kőrösi, calling for coordinated efforts, from the public and private sectors, to find solutions to the long-standing structural problems of debt.

Mr. Kőrösi echoed the UN Secretary-General’s calls for a transformation of international financing, in favour of a new model for sustainable development that ensures developing countries have access to affordable financing.

“Development can only be sustainable,” he argued. “Otherwise, at the end of the day, there will be no development.”

Check out our Latest News and Follow us at Facebook

Original Source

Gender inequalities in food and agriculture are costing world $1 trillion: FAO — Global Issues

Over one third of the world’s working women are employed in agrifood systems, which include the production of food and non-food agricultural products, as well as related activities from food storage, transportation and processing to distribution.

But in a new report, FAO says that gender inequalities such as less access for women to knowledge and resources, and a higher unpaid care burden, account for a 24 per cent gap in productivity between women and men farmers on farms of equal size.

Women employees in the agricultural sector are also paid nearly 20 per cent less than their male counterparts.

“If we tackle the gender inequalities endemic in agrifood systems and empower women, the world will take a leap forward in addressing the goals of ending poverty and creating a world free from hunger”, said FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu.

According to FAO, closing the gender gap in farm productivity and the wage gap in agricultural employment would “increase global gross domestic product by nearly $1 trillion and reduce the number of food-insecure people by 45 million”, at a time of growing global hunger.

© FAO/Sebastian Liste

A farmer from a women-run vegetable cooperative grows cabbages in Sierra Leone.

Structural inequalities

The report shows that women’s access to land, services, credit and digital technology lags behind men’s, while a higher burden of unpaid care limits their opportunities for education, training and employment. FAO points out that discriminatory social norms reinforce gender barriers to knowledge, resources and social networks – holding women back from making an equal contribution in the agrifood sector.

“In many countries there still is much to do to ensure that women own land in equal proportion to men and that legal frameworks protect their rights”, says the report. Its authors describe as “alarming” the slow pace of change in terms of women farmers’ access to ownership of livestock and essentials such as irrigation and fertilizers.

The report also notes that in agrifood systems, “women’s roles tend to be marginalized and their working conditions are likely to be worse than men’s –irregular, informal, part-time, low-skilled, or labour-intensive”.

Boosting growth, curbing hunger

The UN food agency argues that “challenges to women’s full and equal

employment in agrifood systems hold back their productivity and sustain wage gaps”.

According to the report, creating a level playing field in terms of farm productivity and agricultural wages would add one per cent to global gross domestic product, or almost $1 trillion, and bring down food insecurity by two percentage points, benefitting 45 million people.

This is a striking projection at a moment when global hunger is on the rise. The UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that more than 345 million people worldwide face crisis levels of food insecurity this year, an increase of almost 200 million since early 2020. Of these, 43 million are one step away from famine.

Untapped potential

The report’s authors also show that agricultural projects which specifically empower women have broad economic and social benefits.

According to FAO, “if half of small-scale producers benefited from development interventions that focused on empowering women, it would significantly raise the incomes of an additional 58 million people and increase the resilience of an additional 235 million”.

The scale of women’s employment in agrifood systems in some developing countries points to the potential impact that equality-boosting interventions could have. For instance, in southern Asia, 71 per cent of all working women are employed in the sector (versus 47 per cent of men).

‘Make agrifood systems work for women’

FAO points out that monitoring and accelerating progress on gender equality in agrifood systems hinges on “the collection and use of high-quality data, disaggregated by sex, age and other forms of social and economic differentiation”, which is currently lacking, as well as rigorous gender research.

On a policy level, the report’s authors recommend urgent action to “close gaps related to access to assets, technology and resources”. They say that improving women’s productivity in the agrifood sector requires interventions which “address care and unpaid domestic work burdens, provide education and training, and strengthen land-tenure security”.

FAO also advocates for social protection programmes which “have shown to increase women’s employment and resilience”. Indeed, the UN agency’s study underscores that “when economies shrink, women’s jobs go first”, as has been the case during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Women have always worked in agrifood systems. It is time that we made agrifood systems work for women”, said Mr. Qu in his foreword to the report.

Check out our Latest News and Follow us at Facebook

Original Source

Lost decade looms for debt-ridden developing countries: UNCTAD — Global Issues

In a new report, UNCTAD projects that annual growth across large parts of the global economy will be below pre-pandemic levels in 2023.

High interest rates combined with soaring debt levels will add to the “crushing” effect on developing countries over the coming years, to the tune of at least $800 billion.

The UN body says that this will “further deepen the cost-of-living crisis that their citizens are currently facing and magnify inequalities worldwide”.

Debt distress slows development

According to UNCTAD, “interest rates hikes will cost developing countries more than $800 billion in foregone income over the coming years”, as debt servicing costs rise at the expense of investment and public spending.

In 2022, borrowing costs, measured through sovereign bond yields, increased from 5.3 per cent to 8.5 per cent for 68 emerging markets.

The report says that over the last decade, debt servicing costs have consistently outpaced public expenditure on essential services, and that “the number of countries spending more on external public debt service than healthcare increased from 34 to 62 during this period”.

Last year, UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed had warned against this dynamic, calling it “a trade-off between investments in debt and investments in people”.

Public investment in developing countries will continue to suffer as countries pay more to their external creditors than they receive in new loans. This was the case of 39 countries in 2022, with potentially devastating consequences for development, social protection and the broader fight against inequalities, UNCTAD noted.

Liquidity crunch

Meanwhile, international liquidity is drying up for developing economies. The report found that 81 developing countries (excluding China) lost $241 billion in international reserves in 2022, or seven per cent on average.

UNCTAD says that more than 20 countries experienced a drop of over 10 per cent, “in many cases exhausting their recent addition of Special Drawing Rights”.

Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) are an international reserve asset created by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to supplement the official foreign exchange reserves of its member countries and help provide them with liquidity. The largest-ever allocation of SDRs, worth $650 billion, was carried out by the IMF in August 2021 to support countries through the economic crisis due to COVID-19.

Amid the liquidity shortfall, UNCTAD warns that 500 million people living in 37 countries “are likely to continue suffering for years to come from the consequences of a global financial system unable to respond at the scale and at the speed needed to face the systemic shocks affecting the developing world”.

Source: UNCTAD

Average growth rate.

Cost-of-living crisis

The report highlights that food inflation remains rampant in developing countries in early 2023, contributing to a high cost of living.

This echoes the latest assessment of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), which said that despite 12 consecutive months of decreases as of March 2023, global food prices remain 30 per cent higher today compared to the average level observed in 2020, and many low and middle-income countries are experiencing double-digit food price inflation.

High food prices put food security in peril, “particularly in net food importing developing countries, with the situation aggravated by the depreciation of their currencies against the US dollar or the Euro and mounting debt burden”, according to FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero.

UNCTAD further warns that high interest rates and inflated food and energy prices will continue to weaken household spending and business investment.

Reforming debt architecture

Among its recommendations, UNCTAD says that an “urgent focus” on the reform of global debt architecture is required to adequately address developing countries’ needs.

Among the UN trade body’s recommendations is the establishment of a multilateral “debt workout mechanism”, a registry of validated data on debt transactions from both lenders and borrowers, and improved debt sustainability analyses which take into account development and climate finance needs.

Strengthening development finance

These recommendations echo UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ call earlier this year to take action against the high cost of debt and scale up long-term financing for development.

Back in February, Mr. Guterres proposed an annual stimulus package to bridge the “great financial divide” between developed and developing nations and help achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030.

The “SDG Stimulus” proposal also insisted on expanding contingency financing to countries in need and more automatic issuing of Special Drawing Rights in times of crisis.

New Special Drawing Rights

UNCTAD’s report says that issuing new Special Drawing Rights “worth at least $650 billion” would be a “positive first step in helping to alleviate the heavy debt burdens” that are putting development in jeopardy.

The report will be part of the contribution the UN trade body is making to the international discussions currently underway in Washington DC at the IMF/World Bank meetings, including on debt and financing. The UN trade body views the meetings as “a valuable opportunity” to strengthen development finance and improve liquidity prospects.

Source: UNCTAD

Number of countries spending more money on dept compared to selected sectors, 2019–2021 vs. 2012–2014.

Check out our Latest News and Follow us at Facebook

Original Source

IMF lowers global economic growth outlook as ‘fog thickens’ — Global Issues

Global inflation is also heading down, signalling that the tightening of monetary policy through major interest rate rises is bearing fruit, though more slowly than initially anticipated, said the IMF’s Director of Research, from 8.7 percent last year to seven percent this year, and 4.9 percent in 2024.

Gradual recovery ‘remains on track’

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the gradual global recovery from both the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “remains on track”, with China’s reopened economy rebounding strongly, while previously disrupted supply chains are unwinding.

He said this year’s economic slowdown is concentrated in advanced economies, especially the Eurozone and in the United Kingdom, “where growth is expected to fall to 0.8 percent and -0.3 percent this year before rebounding to 1.4 and 1 percent respectively.”

In contrast, despite a 0.5 percentage point downward revision, many emerging market and developing economies are picking up, with growth accelerating to 4.5 percent by the end of 2023 from 2.8 percent at the close of 2022.

‘Fragile’ reality

The IMF Director, who also serves as Economic Counsellor, warned that as the recent instability triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and others, shows “the situation remains fragile. Once again, downside risks dominate and the fog around the world economic outlook has thickened.”

He said inflation was still stubbornly high, more than expected by the markets, while falling inflation was mainly due to falling energy and food prices. Only today, the UN’s food agency (FAO) price index, showed another fall, 20 per cent down on the worrying high of a year ago. However, that fall has not translated into similar declines in most supermarkets for most consumers.

Inflation persists

“We expect year-end to year-end core inflation will slow to 5.1 percent this year, a sizeable upward revision of 0.6 percentage points from our January update, and well above target”, said Mr. Gourinchas.

He said that labour markets – reflected in low unemployment rates – “remain very strong in most advanced economies”, which “may call for monetary policy to tighten further or to stay tighter for longer than currently anticipated.”

He said he remained “unconvinced” that there was a big risk of an uncontrolled wage-price spiral, with nominal wage gains continuing to lag behind price increases, implying a decline in real wages.

Never an easy ride

He said more worrying were the side effects that the sharp interest rate rises of the last year were having on the financial sector, “as we have repeatedly warned might happen. Perhaps the surprise is that it took so long.”

He argues that due to a prolonged period of muted inflation and low interest rates before the global shocks of COVID and the Ukraine war, the financial sector had “become too complacent”.

The brief instability in the UK gilt market last autumn and the recent banking turbulence in the US “underscore that significant vulnerabilities exist both among banks and nonbank financial intermediaries. In both cases, financial and monetary authorities took quick and strong action and, so far, have prevented further instability”, he reassured.

Jitters still strong

He concluded by warning that a sharp tightening of global financial conditions due to a so-called ‘risk-off’ event, when investors rush to play safe and sell assets, “could have a dramatic impact on credit conditions and public finances, especially in emerging market and developing economies. It would precipitate large capital outflows, a sudden increase in risk premia, a dollar appreciation in a rush to safety, and major declines in global activity amid lower confidence, household spending and investment.”

In that event, he said, growth could slow to just one percent this year, implying near stagnant per capita income. But this is unlikely to happen, the IMF Director suggests: “We estimate the probability of such an outcome at about 15 percent.”

Check out our Latest News and Follow us at Facebook

Original Source

Passion to feed a healthier Gambia — Global Issues

At only 24 years of age, Alhadgie Faal has built a successful small business, by turning family land in Kanuma, which is in Gambia’s North Bank region, into a sizable plot, where he grows fruit and vegetables to sell to restaurants and hotels.

He started his company after receiving training from a UN Capital Development Fund (UNCDF) programme[DD1] , focused on supporting women and youth, particularly in rural areas.

“Before I started this business, I was a carpenter, but agriculture was always my passion. Without agriculture we can’t feed the nation, and I had a dream to supply The Gambia with healthy produce.

About four years ago, my stepfather told me that free UN training in agriculture, horticulture, and food processing was available. He applied for me, and I was accepted.

 

UN News/ Conor Lennon

Gambian fruit and vegetable garden run by Alhadgie Faal and his brother.

Planting the seeds of a business

I was really happy, because we are a farming family with little money, and I would not have been able to afford fees and transport. But all of these expenses were included in the offer, so I was able to go to the college.

The training was extremely useful. We learned about agronomics, how to manage crops, when to plant, and how to select the right site.

Once I graduated, I got the idea to start my own fruit and vegetable business. My stepmother owned some land, and she allowed me and my brother to use it. The land was all bush back then, so my brother and I cleared it to create a garden.

At the beginning, I faced many challenges. Any time we planted or sowed seeds, rodents would come and destroy everything. We also had to cope with termites, pests, and diseases.

Eventually we overcame these problems. Today, we protect the crops with netting to protect them from rodents, and we cover them with plastic for three to four days to generate heat, which suppresses the termites.

UN News/ Conor Lennon

Gambian fruit and vegetable entrepreneur, Alhadgie Faal

From peppers to papayas

We grow many different crops here. We have green bell peppers, hot yellow peppers, papayas, and strawberries.

We have been successful in selling our fruit in the Banjul region. We are supplying restaurants, hotels, and some private people.

Many people like our produce because it’s very tasty. Our strawberries are large and sweet, and all of our fruit and vegetables are organic. This is vital, because chemicals are not good for human health or the environment.

Starting an agriculture business in The Gambia is very hard. You have to be patient, or you won’t succeed. Transport is a problem, and expansion is very complicated, because it’s hard to get access to grants and loans. Funding is a big issue, especially for young farmers.

My advice for anyone who wants to be an entrepreneur is to focus on agriculture, so that we can avoid importing from our neighbouring countries. We have the land, and we can get water from the river. We have everything we need to survive.

I would like Gambians to eat Gambian strawberries. People have the misconception that we don’t grow the fruit here, and that’s what motivates me to succeed.”

Check out our Latest News and Follow us at Facebook

Original Source

‘Green industrial age’ can be sustainable development breakthrough — Global Issues

Amid growing food and energy crises stoked by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, an uncertain global economic outlook, and the escalating impacts of climate change, the 2023 Financing for Sustainable Development Report: Financing Sustainable Transformations, says that “urgent, massive investment” is needed to accelerate positive transformation of the electricity supply industry, farming, transportation and construction.

There are signs of sustainable growth that could benefit all countries, and create a realistic platform to reach the SDGs, the report suggests, such as the extraordinary expansion in internet use, with over 38,000 new users getting online each hour. 

Falling further behind

“Without the means to invest in sustainable development and transform their energy and food systems, developing countries are falling even further behind,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in the foreword to the report.

“A two-track world of haves and have-nots holds clear and obvious dangers for every country. We urgently need to rebuild global cooperation and find the solutions to our current crises in multilateral action.”

Some of the necessary changes are already taking place, the report highlights. The energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine has spurred investment in global energy transition, which skyrocketed in 2022 to a record $1.1 trillion.

Meanwhile, energy transition investments in 2022, were greater than those in the fossil fuel sector, for the first time ever, but these are almost all in China and developed countries, the report states.

No money left

Most developing countries do not have the resources for investment, unlike their developed counterparts, the report lays bare.

Climate change, the war in Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic, and debt payments up to two times higher than in 2019, have combined to put massive fiscal pressures on most developing countries, limiting the ability to fund transformation.

Using post-pandemic spending as a comparison, in developed countries the average was $12,200 per capita – 30 times higher than for developing countries (that’s $410), and 610 times higher than for least developed countries (just $20).

‘We know what to do’: Deputy UN chief

“Without delivering a reformed international financial system while scaling up investments in the SDGs, we will not deliver on our shared commitment to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development,” said United Nations Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed.

“The good news is that we know what to do and how to do it. From launching critical transformations in energy, food and education to ushering in a new green industrial and digital age—we all must quicken the pace and leave no one behind.”

Where industrialization has traditionally been the growth engine in economic development, the report calls for a “new generation of sustainable industrial policies”, underpinned by integrated national planning, to scale up investments and lay a foundation for the future.

38,000+ people an hour going online

There are many opportunities for inclusive growth in the agroindustry, green energy, and manufacturing sectors, the report suggests.

The recent rapid uptake in technology points to the possibilities for an equally rapid transition to sustainable industrialization and growth.

For example, between 2021 and 2022, 338 million more people used the Internet regularly, an increase of approximately 38,600 additional people every hour.

However, manufacturing capacity remains uneven, the data warns. In least developed countries in Africa, manufacturing value added – instead of doubling as the SDG timetable requires – fell from around 10 per cent of GDP (gross domestic product) in 2000 to 9 per cent in 2021.

It will take targeted policies from governments to build the domestic productive capabilities to achieve low-carbon transitions in order to slow climate change to the necessary pace, create decent jobs, and boost economic growth – all while ensuring gender equality – which is essential for productivity.

© UNICEF/Karin Schermbrucker

Women learn how to farm their land in Chipata, Zambia.

Prescription for sustainability

The 2023 Financing for Sustainable Development Report calls for a combination of strengthening tax systems, enabling more private investment, and scaling up of international public investment and development cooperation.

Changes to the international financial architecture are also essential to raise sufficient resources, and escape the shackles of unaffordable debt repayment.

As international institutions work to adapt to the rapidly evolving needs of countries, the report warns that if reforms are piecemeal, incomplete, or fail to take the SDGs into account, sustainable development will be unachievable.

‘We have the solutions’

“We have the solutions to avoid a lasting sustainable development divide, and prevent a lost decade for development,” said Li Junhua, head of the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), which led the production of the inter-agency report.

“We must find the political will to overcome the rising political tensions, splintering of inter-country alliances, and worrying trends towards nationalism and seize the moment now, to urgently invest in our common future.”

Check out our Latest News and Follow us at Facebook

Original Source

Exit mobile version