Fears of mass migration from Myanmar as military plans to draft thousands | Conflict News

Ko Naing* is just the sort of young man Myanmar’s military is looking for.

Hoping to make up for recruitment shortfalls and battlefield losses against armed groups fighting to reverse its 2021 coup, Myanmar’s military last month announced plans to enforce a years-old conscription law.

Starting in April, the military says, all men aged 18 to 35 years and women from 18 to 27 years must serve at least two years in the armed forces.

Doctors and other professionals in especially short supply in the military’s ranks may be drafted until they are 45 years old. The country’s military rulers hope to call up approximately 60,000 recruits by the end of the year.

As a doctor, and at a healthy 33 years old, Ko Naing fits the bill for conscription.

Like many of Myanmar’s young men and women, Ko Naing said he had no intention of answering the call and would instead do whatever it takes to avoid the draft.

“The one sure thing is I won’t serve. If I’m drafted by the military, I will try to move to the remote areas or to another country,” Ko Naing told Al Jazeera from Myanmar.

“Not only me, I think everyone in Myanmar is not willing to serve in the military under the conscription law,” he said. “The people believe it is not legal because the people believe the military is not their government.”

The 2021 coup that removed the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi has plunged Myanmar into a brutal civil war pitting the military against a patchwork of deep-rooted, well-armed ethnic minority armies and a new crop of local armed groups set up to remove the military regime from power.

Having already stretched the military thin across the country, these ethnic armies have forced the military to retreat from dozens of towns and bases since October, mainly in the east. The six-month-old campaign, dubbed Operation 1027, has handed the ruling generals their worst string of defeats of the war.

“The timing of the activation of the conscription law indicates its desperation,” said Ye Myo Hein, an adviser to the US Institute of Peace and fellow at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC.

“Following Operation 1027, the junta has faced continuous and significant military losses, resulting in a substantial depletion of its human resources and a serious shortage of manpower. In response to this situation, the military has opted to activate the conscription law to replenish its declining manpower,” Ye Myo Hein said.

He also doubts the draft will do the military much good. The intake of recruits may help boost the morale of commanders on the front lines running short of soldiers, Ye Myo Hein said, but is unlikely to stem the military’s losses.

“The new recruits may not be effective fighters in the short term. If deployed on the battlefronts, they could end up as cannon fodder,” he said.

Ye Myo Hein said the draft could also backfire on the military by filling its ranks with resentful soldiers who could pose a threat from within, and by driving more young people into the arms of the resistance.

Members of the People’s Defence Forces, who became rebel fighters after protests against the military coup in Myanmar were met with extreme violence [File: Reuters]

‘No one … is safe’

The military says the draft will start next month with an initial batch of 5,000 conscripts. Unofficially, though, it may have started already.

In a recent statement, the United Nations special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, relayed reports of young men being effectively “kidnapped” off the streets by the military and forced to the front lines.

The New Myanmar Foundation, a charity based in Thailand helping those fleeing the war, says it has also heard of soldiers and police raiding teashops across the country in recent weeks in search of young men and women to press them into service.

“They are now losing, so they need the youth to fight for them,” the foundation’s executive director, Sann Aung, told Al Jazeera from the Thai border town of Mae Sot.

A camp for internally displaced people in Myanmar as seen across the Moei river from Mae Sot in western Thailand on Thursday, Feb. 8, 2024. Thailand's Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara was inspecting the staging area in Mae Sot on Thursday, from where cross border aid will be sent to displaced people in Myanmar beginning in about a month. (AP Photo/Jintamas Saksornchai)
A camp for internally displaced people in Myanmar as seen across the Moei River from Mae Sot in western Thailand [Jintamas Saksornchai/AP Photo]

Activists, journalists and others in the military’s crosshairs have been fleeing the country – many of them by irregular means – amid a crackdown on critics and dissidents since the coup in February 2021. Now it is feared that the new conscription drive will turn a stream of political migrants into a flood.

In his statement, UN rapporteur Andrews warned that the numbers leaving Myanmar would “surely skyrocket” because of the draft.

Ye Myo Hein also warned of a “mass exodus”.

“People living in urban areas have been attempting to normalise their lives amidst the post-coup abnormality to some extent. However, the conscription law unequivocally gives the signal that no one, even those outside conflict zones, is exempt from the repercussions of the military coup and is safe,” he said.

Sann Aung said he has already seen the numbers fleeing to the Thai border swell and echoed the forecasts of a growing surge.

He said many travel to the relative safety of Myanmar’s rugged and remote borderlands, where some of the country’s strongest ethnic armies have over the decades carved out enclaves largely independent of the central government. Some go to join the fight against the military, others just to hide.

“This is the cheapest and the most convenient way for them,” Sann Aung said. “But some people who [may] have more … money and cash, they move to the neighbouring areas, neighbouring countries, including Thailand and India and maybe China.”

He and other close observers say that most of those fleeing are heading to Thailand, drawn by a large diaspora from Myanmar from before the coup, as well as better job prospects and a government in Bangkok that has kept Myanmar’s military at a distance — at least compared with China and India, which have been arming the generals.

Phoe Thingyan of the Overseas Irrawaddy Association, another charity for the displaced based in Mae Sot on the Thai border, said since news of the conscription plan emerged, the numbers arriving at the border or crossing over have been “increasing every day”.

‘Legally or illegally’

Overwhelmed by a recent surge of visa applicants at its embassy in Myanmar, Thailand has capped the number of people allowed to apply for an entry visa per day at 400. Even after doubling that daily limit to 800, application places have filled up for weeks ahead.

Newly desperate to get travel documents to leave the country, hundreds of people swarmed a passport office in Mandalay, the country’s second-largest city, on February 19, and accidentally killed two queue tokens vendors in the crush.

People wait in line to enter the Thai embassy visa application section in Yangon, Myanmar’s biggest city, last month [AP Photo]

Phoe Thingyan and Sann Aung say those crowded out of the visa and passport process will probably leave anyway, however they can.

Thura*, 33, is one of those making plans to escape should he need to flee.

A human rights worker, Thura said he hopes he can avoid the draft as the sole caregiver to elderly parents, one of a handful of exemptions in the conscription law.

“But if the military still tries to force me to serve, I will try to move to Thailand,” he said, “legally or illegally”.

Thura says the current rate for a covert trip from Mandalay to the Thailand border is 2.5 million kyats (about $1,200), including border smuggler’s fees.

Wary of a new wave of people fleeing from Myanmar, Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has warned that anyone caught crossing the border illegally will face “legal action”.

Undeterred by the potential repercussions, Thura is resolved not to fight for a military widely accused of waging an indiscriminate war that has killed thousands of civilians, displaced millions and tipped Myanmar into chaos.

His reasons are personal as well as political. Thura tells how friends who joined armed groups fighting the military have been killed in battle, and that another who was arrested for simply protesting against the military coup has been sentenced to death.

“If I’m forced to serve in the military, I will try to move to another place or another country,” he said.

“But if I fail and I’m caught and forced to serve, I will try to escape and run away. I cannot shoot at my friends.”

*Some names have been changed to shield the identities of individuals worried about their safety.

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Myanmar’s rebels see unity as key to victory over weakened military rulers | Conflict News

Karen State, Myanmar – A young fighter looks out from the upper floor in a concrete skeleton of a church that villagers have been building for two years in this small pocket of southeast Myanmar.

The construction work has been a slow undertaking, said 21-year-old Zayar, a member of Myanmar’s Muslim community who moved from the country’s biggest city, Yangon, to this rebel camp near the Thai border to fight against his country’s military rulers.

Air strikes by military warplanes are a constant threat in this hamlet in Karen State – also known as Kayin – where jobs are scarce and money is tight.

But, little by little, the ethnic Karen here were able to build their church.

“Before, we thought the Karen people were dacoits [bandits],” said Zayar, who joined the rebellion against Myanmar’s military just last year.

“Now people understand the real situation,” he told Al Jazeera.

Zayar’s opinion of the Karen – one of Myanmar’s largest minorities – was shaped by disparaging depictions and stereotypes circulated under the country’s military generals, who primarily hail from the ethnic Bamar majority and have violently suppressed the aspirations of Myanmar’s diverse ethnic groups for decades.

Zayar, a fighter with the KTLA in Karen State, Myanmar, in December 2023 [Lorcan Lovett/Al Jazeera]

The Myanmar military’s attempts to pressure the country’s minorities into submission – stretching as far back as the 1940s – fuelled one of the longest-running conflicts in the world.

Now as military leaders mark their third year since seizing power in Myanmar, an uprising that melds the decades-old ethnic struggles for self-determination with the more recent armed fight to restore democracy has enveloped much of the nation.

In October, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), based in the Mandarin-speaking region of Kokang on the border with China, along with two other powerful ethnic armed groups, as well as Bamar fighters, launched their offensive against the military.

The collaboration – known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance – has scored unprecedented victories against Myanmar’s military, which toppled Aung San Suu Kyi’s civilian government in February 2021.

Resistance to the country’s military rulers is now a broad church and confidence in the movement and its campaign has been massively boosted by the participation of a growing number of armed actors.

However, the alliance’s common cause of removing the military from power remains set against a complex history of rivalries and suspicions between a multitude of ethnic armed groups – divisions which the military has successfully exploited to its benefit in the past.

As the alliance’s offensive moves from the countryside to urban areas in the west, north and east of Myanmar, the military is struggling to find a way back, and some fear the collaboration among the rebels will not hold together.

Unity of purpose

Zayar slings his rifle around his shoulder and takes the path past corn and peanut crops to his camp. His role in the revolution embodies much of the dreams and contradictions that have come to define the struggle in Myanmar.

On a friend’s recommendation, Zayar joined the Kawthoolei Army (KTLA), a fringe splinter group formed by General Ner Dah Bo Mya, who stormed out of the established Karen National Union (KNU) armed movement after refusing to participate in an investigation into the killing of a group of men allegedly carried out by his fighters in 2021.

An anti-coup activist undergoes basic military training with the Karen National Union (KNU) in Karen State in 2021 [AFP]

Ner Dah Bo Mya has not denied the killings were carried out by his fighters, claiming the 25 unarmed men were military spies.

He has also cultivated a firebrand image for his KTLA unit that has attracted young people itching to take up weapons to overthrow the military dictatorship.

Though both are fighting the military, the KTLA has also clashed with the KNU in southern Myanmar. On other occasions, KTLA fighters and soldiers under KNU command have worked together on operations.

KTLA fighters stand to attention at their base in Karen State, Myanmar, in December [Lorcan Lovett/Al Jazeera]

Unity, says Myanmar political analyst Kim Jolliffe, stands as the overriding factor in the success of the current armed revolt.

Being unified is not only necessary for military success, said Jolliffe, but also for laying the foundation of a post-military Myanmar.

Unity, he said, will be key to moving the country away from a “highly coercive centralised state” that “creates perpetual conflict” to one where “all ethnic groups are equal in a genuine power-sharing mechanism”.

“The central problem that the revolution must solve is how to create a system that enhances the diversity and create a power balance so that no single group positions themselves as overarching chauvinist controllers,” Jolliffee told Al Jazeera.

“We will likely continue to see localised conflicts and tensions among resistance groups in some areas. But there is little to suggest that it will have a fundamental impact on the overall direction of the revolution,” he added.

While some ethnic forces have aligned with the military or have remained neutral, most of the country’s formidable ethnic armed groups have poured their resources and troops into the current campaign against the generals.

Zayar said he has risked everything for the revolution.

“Living under the dictatorship is worse than death,” he says. “I will fight back until I die.”

For Zayar, he is fighting for equality.

Being of the Muslim faith in predominately Buddhist Myanmar, some have called him a “kalar” – a term used as a slur against Muslims or anyone of South Asian origin in Myanmar. His official Myanmar national identity card also marks him out as a “Muslim”, not only as his religion but also as an ethnic identity, he says.

“When the government put me as that, I felt discriminated,” he told Al Jazeera.

“I was born and raised in Myanmar. Of course, I’m Myanmar.”

Two KTLA fighters dressed in clothing donated by supporters perform a comedy dance routine to the amusement of their comrades at their base camp [Lorcan Lovett/Al Jazeera]

Zayar joined the revolution relatively late – in April 2023 – more than two years after the military’s chief commander Min Aung Hlaing seized power from Aung San Suu Kyi.

On the military’s side, people are unwilling to fight for coup leader Min Aung Hlaing, who has overseen an unceasing chain of atrocities against civilians across the country since seizing power.

News outlets such as Frontier Myanmar and Radio Free Asia have reported the military snatching young men off the streets at night and threatening to burn down villages as a way to secure recruits and boost their numbers.

Due to the military’s postcoup violence driving peaceful protesters to seek combat training under the guidance of ethnic rebels, the regime’s once inexperienced opponents have developed into battle-hardened fighters.

Troop movements by the military have become rarer. Mostly it relies on air strikes and heavy weaponry from fortified positions. Mass surrenders by regime troops have reinforced notions of sinking morale among the rank and file.

Discontent within the military at Min Aung Hlaing’s leadership has also stirred persistent rumours that the coup leader may be overthrown himself by his comrades in arms.

In the opposing camp, fighters such as Zayar understand the importance of maintaining unity with other groups in the fight to free Myanmar from military rule.

But there is a paradox in Zayar and others joining splinter armed groups, such as the KTLA, which could in the long run lead to disunity in the war against the military regime.

Division and diversity

Zayar’s commander, Lar Phoe, 30, points towards a plume of smoke rising from a hillside. The military had burned and abandoned their own outpost two days previous, he said.

“If they didn’t, they may not have got the chance to retreat again,” Phoe, heavy-set and hobbling in a sleeveless traditional Karen tunic, told Al Jazeera.

Injured by a blast from a mortal shell that hit his ankle a year ago was a bookmark in his service to the Karen cause, which began as a child in a refugee camp where he would emulate those he once called “the big soldiers”.

A commander with the KTLA, Lar Phoe, in Karen State in December 2023 [Lorcan Lovett/Al Jazeera]

Phoe continues to lead Karen fighters on the front line. He had returned only the week before from a two-day ambush on a military column.

He tells how military reinforcement had dressed as farmers and hide their guns in bags used for corn cobs. Mistaking them for civilians, Phoe’s unit of KTLA fighters allowed them to pass, only to be surprised with a sputter of gunfire.

“We lost some fighters and sustained injuries,” he said. “The junta soldiers know we care about locals, so they take advantage of that.”

Under Phoe’s command are about 70 men and four women of mixed ethnicities. Many are from the cities. Wielding a mix of rifles and semiautomatic guns, they form a line and salute every time a car enters the camp.

“I never imagined a situation in which Bamar, and other ethnic people, would be under my command,” he said, reflecting on the disunity of the Karen and hoping the KTLA and KNU could be “united as one”.

“The nature of revolution is unity,” he said. “It is the path to work as one. If the leaders are united, the rest of the forces would unite.”

It was a calling for unity against the military that drew Phue Phue, 28, a female Bamar fighters, back to her native Myanmar for the first time since she was 15.

Phue recounted how she moved to Thailand to work in a paper factory as a teenager and how a KTLA recruitment video on TikTok drew her home and into armed rebellion.

Phue Phue, holding the Karen flag, joined the KTLA against the wishes of her mother [Lorcan Lovett/Al Jazeera]

Sitting in a hammock, in a Guns N’ Roses T-shirt, she tells how the Karen have shared their food and shelter with her, an ethnic Bamar, “so we can continue our revolution”.

“They take care of us for everything,” she said.

Phue also spoke of the arguments she had with her mother, who tried to pour cold water on the idea of her daughter joining an armed group to fight the military.

Phue’s mother asked her if she would be willing to kill her own relatives who serve in Myanmar’s military if they were to meet in battle.

“I said ‘yes, if I’m faster than them’,” Phue said.

“My mum was really angry, but it helped her realise how important this revolution is,” she said.

About a year ago, Phue told her mother she was going to get her hair cut.

“Then I ran away,” she said.

Since joining the KTLA she has stopped talking with her family.

“I can’t handle the feeling of missing my mum so much. I can’t bear the heart break of her crying,” Phue said, becoming tearful as she spoke to Al Jazeera.

“When the revolution is over, I will go back home,” she added.

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