The new starting shortstop will be the only Yankee to have an extra patch on his sleeve to signify his MLB debut, part of a league-wide initiative that is beginning this season.
Following Volpe’s first game in the major leagues Thursday, the small red, white and blue patch reading “MLB Debut” will be authenticated and then put into a 1-of-1 rookie card in a future Topps set, as part of a partnership between Fanatics Collectibles, MLB and MLB Players Inc. (the business arm of the Players Association).
Every player who makes his MLB debut this season – a group that on Opening Day includes Volpe and Cardinals top prospect Jordan Walker – will wear one of the patches on his jersey.
After the first game the player gets into, the debut patch will be removed and turned into the relic trading card.
“A Major League player’s debut day is a cause for great celebration and the culmination of many years of hard work,” MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said in a statement. “Topps has been a great partner to Baseball for decades, and I think this particular initiative is crucial to the development of deeper fan engagement.”
“For a player there is no bigger moment than the first time they step onto a field for their Major League debut,” MLBPA executive director Tony Clark said. “The Debut Patch is one way to capture the timeless nature of this moment and provide fans the opportunity to be part of it by collecting a player worn item.”
TAMPA — The Yankees will have a 21-year-old New Jersey product starting at shortstop on Opening Day.
Anthony Volpe has won the shortstop battle the Yankees held during spring training, consistently showing off his all-around game and the high potential that team officials had been raving about since drafting him in the first round in 2019.
Volpe entered camp seemingly with the longest odds to win the job, with Isiah Kiner-Falefa the incumbent and Oswald Peraza ahead in his development path after making a one-month cameo at the end of last season.
Unlike Kiner-Falefa and Peraza, Volpe was not on the 40-man roster and had only played 22 games at Triple-A, a knock because the Yankees typically like their prospects to conquer each level of the minor leagues before moving up.
The Delbarton grad never let his foot off the gas pedal, making it just about impossible for the Yankees not to carry him on the roster immediately out of camp.
Yankees captain Aaron Judge all but foreshadowed the move earlier this spring when asked about Volpe’s lack of Triple-A experience, saying the best players should be up with the Yankees regardless of age.
Since then, Volpe has only continued to make a loud case for the job.
“He just shows up ready to work,” Judge said Saturday after Volpe came up a home run short of the cycle. “He’s prepared. Very rarely do you see that at such a young age. There’s usually some — a little immature, a little unprepared or the moment’s too big. But he seems ready to go every single game I’ve played behind him.”
Volpe will be the first rookie in the Yankees’ Opening Day lineup since Judge in 2017.
He will also be the youngest Yankee to start on Opening Day since a 21-year-old Derek Jeter did so in 1996, according to MLB.com.
Volpe had a scheduled day off on Sunday, but through 17 Grapefruit League games, he was batting .314 with a 1.064 OPS and five steals.
The addition of Volpe to the Yankees lineup could inject some needed athleticism, especially in the first season in which the bases will be bigger and pickoffs will be limited.
Last season, when those rules were already in place in the minor leagues, Volpe stole 50 bases in 132 games between Double-A Somerset and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
While scouts are split on whether Volpe’s long-term future is at shortstop or second base, there is little doubt about his offense, baseball IQ or how he carries himself on and off the field.
“He just comes to beat your ass,” a National League scout who has seen Volpe often in the minor leagues said recently. “He’s just that guy who’s in the middle of anything good that happens almost every day — offensively, defensively, baserunning.”
Through the first week of Grapefruit League games, the 21-year-old has given decision-makers plenty to think about.
Getting the start at shortstop on Saturday, Volpe ripped a double off the left-field wall and smacked another line drive to third base that resulted in a double play in the Yankees’ 14-10 loss to the Rays at Steinbrenner Field.
He is now batting 5-for-15 (.333) with a 1.042 OPS through five games, though spring training results alone are not going to win him the job.
“It’s hard to answer what the criteria is,” Boone said after the game. “But we’re paying attention.”
Asked if there was a scenario where Volpe could break camp with the team without someone else being hurt — Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Oswald Peraza are his main competition in the shortstop battle — Boone answered, “Sure, yeah.”
Entering spring training, Kiner-Falefa was the incumbent, though Peraza made a strong impression with a one-month cameo at the end of last season.
Volpe is viewed by many as having the highest ceiling of the three, but he spent most of last year at Double-A Somerset before finishing the season with 22 games at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Asked about Volpe’s lack of Triple-A experience and professional at-bats overall (1,259 career plate appearances), Boone said that would be one of the factors in the ultimate decision.
“It’s all things we talk about as a group and as we get towards the end of spring and we’re starting to make the decisions about rosters and stuff, there’ll be a lot of voices that have thoughts and opinions,” Boone said. “That’s part of his case and case against and story. Yeah, it’s all part of the equation that you gotta make a decision on at some point.”
The Yankees are still three-plus weeks away from having to make that decision, and plenty of things could change before then that would alter the equation.
Through the first week of games, though, Volpe is off to a strong start.
“He’s a good player,” Boone said. “I can’t say I’m surprised, because I think we all expected him to handle it all well. Just a good player that loves the game that’s into the game that’s into all the little things about the game.”
Aaron Boone is the most unsuccessful successful manager in the majors.
He has been the Yankees skipper for five years. He has two first-place finishes — the only AL East titles for the organization in the past decade. Boone’s Yankees have never finished worse than second place and never missed the playoffs. Of the 211 men who have managed at least 700 games, Boone’s .603 winning percentage is fifth-best all-time.
But this hero of the 2003 Yankees-Red Sox ALCS shares similarities with a hero of the 2004 Yankees-Red Sox ALCS. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts’ .632 winning percentage is second-best. And unlike Boone, his Dodgers did win a World Series, albeit in the shortened 2020 COVID season.
In seven seasons, Roberts’ Dodgers have finished first six times. But they have won at least 104 regular-season games four times — setting or tying the franchise record for wins in each of the past three full years (2019, 2021, 2022), including 111 last season — and failed to win the World Series in any of those years.
Roberts’ tenure is best known for failing to capitalize in the postseason and — correctly or incorrectly — for the public and media sense that he is merely a functionary orchestrating the desires of an analytically manic front office.
If that sounds familiar, you must have a favorite team in The Bronx.
I think this all renders capable people to caricature. The idea that Boone, for example, is just a cardboard cutout agreeing to whatever his bosses want is extreme.
However, I do wonder whether he is putting up enough of a roadblock when he perceives something is wrong or perhaps he is part of a groupthink that wasted time (and perhaps more) by insisting Gary Sanchez was a championship catcher and Gleyber Torres and Isiah Kiner-Falefa were championship shortstops. Because this is really about championships.
Every decision cannot just be about the analytic card-counting that allows the Yankees to accumulate enough victories over the Royals and A’s in May and June to get to the playoffs — as valuable as that is. They also have to assemble the kind of team that can do more than beat the crap out of an overmatched AL Central opponent come the postseason.
Boone is in Year 6, and should have enough heft now to speak up if he doesn’t think Kiner-Falefa should be the shortstop or Josh Donaldson the third baseman or Aaron Hicks the left fielder or whatever he believes is stopping the Yankees from fulfilling the toughest mandate: excelling during the long season and having the fewest holes possible to survive the October gauntlet.
Because it is also Year 2 on a three-year contract extension for Boone. And though the Yankees have reversed the unsteady managerial legacy forged by George Steinbrenner by having just four managers in the past three decades, Boone begins this season as the member of the Yankees most in the crosshairs. Hal Steinbrenner will not be firing himself. Brian Cashman received a four-year extension this offseason. The players might get booed at home, but the contracts are guaranteed.
Perhaps Hal Steinbrenner and Cashman like and respect Boone so much that they will tolerate another postseason of beating the Guardians, losing to the Astros in five games and everyone talking afterward about how close they were to the promised land. But at some point the leadership is going to block out the noise by playing the “a new voice was needed” card.
Look, championships are incredibly difficult to win. Just look at Roberts’ Dodgers, whose run of success even predates him as manager. They are 10 for the past 10 in making the playoffs, first under Don Mattingly, then with Roberts. They have five of the 10 best single-season winning percentages in MLB in that decade-long span. They have won 73 more regular-season games than any other club — 931 to the runner-up Yankees’ 858. They have been the sport’s model franchise.
But there is just the one title from after the 60-game regular season.
The Yankees are at 13 years and counting without a championship. And what makes the upcoming season so treacherous is the postseason cannot be considered a layup even with six teams in each league gaining entrance and the Yankees sporting a franchise-record payroll near $290 million for luxury-tax purposes. Top to bottom, the AL East is the majors’ best division.
The Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays all have deep rosters. The Orioles have lots of volatility because their talent is young, but the talent is real. You can convince me the Orioles will win 75 games or that they will win 90 – their farm talent is rich enough that they could be a trade deadline force if they are in contention.
And though the Red Sox have the most questionable talent base, they do have talent. Mostly, though, the Red Sox never make sense. They have finished last five times in the past 11 seasons, yet also won two titles. After the 2002 campaign, their offseason was perceived as underwhelming, filled with lots of accumulation without impact. Except there was a lot of impact. The Red Sox went to ALCS Game 7 in 2003 (the Boone game) and won it all in 2004.
After the 2012 campaign, their offseason was perceived as underwhelming, filled with lots of accumulation without impact. Except there was a lot of impact, and the Red Sox won it all in 2013.
It has been another 10 years. And after the 2022 campaign, their offseason has been perceived as underwhelming, filled with lots of accumulation without impact.
So, who knows?
Boone’s group has to navigate toward the top — if not the top — of this division, then finally assemble four weeks of postseason excellence. It is a perilous road. It is why in this ranking of the Yankees under the most pressure heading into spring training, the leadoff hitter in this nine-man lineup is the manager. The rest of the order:
2. Cashman. This is more his team than Boone’s. And one thing to remember is that in a quarter of a century as GM, Cashman never has assembled a clunker. There are no last-place finishes here like with the Red Sox — and the high draft picks that come with that.
But Cashman needs a championship like the Warriors had last year — the cherry on top
that validates a great run. Cashman’s first three Yankees squads from 1998-2000 won it all, as did the 2009 club. To quiet the noise around him, Cashman surely could use another title, which would probably stamp a Cooperstown ticket as well.
Cashman has a lot of self-inflicted problems on this roster. Hicks’ seven-year, $70 million extension is the booby prize that keeps on giving. To date, uninspiring trades for Donaldson/Kiner-Falefa and Frankie Montas are creating 2023 headaches and headwinds. The position-player group remains overly right-handed. A bunch of trades have left a lot fewer rotation insurance policies. And it feels as if the time is now for Oswald Peraza and/or Anthony Volpe to exonerate the Yankees for staying out of the past two, starry free-agent shortstop classes.
3. Gerrit Cole. As with Boone, there is a sense of someone being unsuccessfully successful. Cole has received Cy Young Award votes in all three of his Yankees seasons. He has been durable and missed bats at the highest level and been an above-average performer.
Yet there also has been something missing. Can Cole be explained by this 2022 reality: He led the majors in both strikeouts and homers allowed? His performance has declined in each Yankees season, and he has become more long-ball prone. And, while employed by the Yankees, he has become the face of pitcher usage of illegal sticky stuff, and his postseason performances have vacillated from high to low.
He still has six years left on a $324 million contract — which remains the most ever given to a pitcher. Is there a Cy Young in him? Is there a postseason run similar to what CC Sabathia had in 2009, the last time the Yankees won a championship? At his introductory press conference, he professed having the Yankees in his blood. But at this moment, the fans’ feelings toward the ace plays like a business relationship more than an emotional investment.
4. Aaron Judge. Perhaps the 62-homer season after turning down a $213.5 million extension indicates Judge might be impervious to pressure. Still, there is naturally going to be a presiding sense of “what can he do for an encore,” especially after Judge signed a nine-year, $360 million deal.
Judge has played in 305 of a possible 324 regular-season games the past two years. Since the Yankees offense goes as Judge goes until proven otherwise, his health is a key to the 2023 season.
5. Hal Steinbrenner. If it wasn’t bad enough for son of George that he has never been able to fully escape his father’s shadow, he now is going to be compared to Steve Cohen. The Yankees’ record payroll, for example, projects to more than $80 million less than that of Cohen’s Mets for luxury-tax purposes.
Being booed last September when Derek Jeter mentioned his name during a ceremony for Jeter’s Hall of Fame induction unnerved Steinbrenner. It perhaps gave Judge the best ammunition in his negotiation with the Yankees — knowing Steinbrenner recognized how much more unpopular he would become if he did not re-up the most popular Yankee since Jeter.
Steinbrenner sure could use a championship, too. Though it should be noted John Henry is the owner who helped end the Red Sox “Curse” in 2004 of not having won a title since 1918 and has been in charge for three more championships, yet Henry has been booed publicly this offseason by Red Sox fans who feel he has not invested enough emotionally and financially in the franchise in recent years.
6. Donaldson. Cashman has proclaimed Donaldson the starting third baseman, though Donaldson is coming off his worst season. The Yankees GM has insisted it is not because the club still owes Donaldson $27 million, but rather because he fielded superbly last year and Cashman insists the bat will recover in 2023. But the combination of money and a personality that worries lots of organizations means, at 36, Donaldson does not have a ton of potential landing spots if the Yankees grow tired of his performance on or off the field. Donaldson, to some degree, is fighting for his career.
7. Volpe. Kiner-Falefa is the incumbent shortstop. Peraza — because he reached the majors and performed well in a cameo last year — might just be the favorite to start at short going into the season. But Volpe carries so many of the hopes and dreams of this organization.
The Yankees haven’t felt so good about the overall package of a prospect — skill and makeup — since perhaps Jeter. That is a lot of weight for someone who will not turn 22 until April 28. Many eyeballs will be on him in spring training to see what all the hype (and decision not to sign established stars) has been about.
8. Carlos Rodon. From 2017-20, Rodon was injury-prone and underperforming the talent that made him the third overall draft pick in 2014. In that time, he appeared in just 43 games (41 starts), going 11-17 with a 4.45 ERA, averaging 4.1 walks and 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
The past two seasons, Rodon has been as good as any pitcher. He is 27-13 with a 2.67 ERA in 55 starts, averaging 2.5 walks and 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings.
The Yankees invested $162 million over six years believing Rodon has unlocked the ability to stay healthy and thrive. In the 2008-09 offseason, the Yankees signed Sabathia for seven years at $161 million and A.J. Burnett for five years at $82.5 million.
Where on the Sabathia-Burnett spectrum will Rodon land? Will he be an ace lefty like Sabathia? Or, like Burnett, a talented guy who put together success and health to get the big free-agent deal, but could never fully harness the stuff in New York?
9. Hicks. There were other places to go for ninth in this order, including Harrison Bader and Luis Severino entering their walk years before free agency or DJ LeMahieu trying to come back from a foot injury or Oswaldo Cabrera attempting to prove his strong two-month debut last year was no fluke.
But Hicks and Donaldson are such hot-button issues, and both will feel intense scrutiny over whether they can be useful players. Hicks seemed to lose his nerve playing games in The Bronx last year. He was one of the worst home performers in the sport (.523 OPS, compared to .732 on the road).
The Yankees did not satisfactorily solve left field this offseason nor find enough lefty bats. In the ideal scenario, Hicks would be even league average in left field, allowing Cabrera to be used in a myriad of spots and giving Boone two switch-hitters to deploy regularly along with lefty Anthony Rizzo.
I stumbled upon a stat that probably means nothing, but here it is: As a lefty hitter on the road, Hicks’ slashline was .279/.395/.416 in 186 plate appearances. There was not much power, but among players with at least 175 road at-bats as lefty batters, Hicks’ 16.1 percent walk rate trailed only Juan Soto (20.6), Max Muncy (19.9) and Lars Nootbaar (18.2), and Hicks struck out just 18.8 percent of the time.
And what did Hicks’ 143 plate appearances as a lefty hitter look like in the Yankee Stadium haven for lefty hitters? He had a .116/.252/.149 slash line with a 14 percent walk rate and 28 percent whiff rate. Hicks hit just one lefty homer at home — amazingly, it was a three-run shot off Astros closer Ryan Pressly in the bottom of the ninth on June 23 that tied the score 6-6 before Judge won it with an RBI single.
It feels as if the crux of getting performance out of Hicks begins with him finding a way to block the negativity that surrounds him in The Bronx. Is that even possible, or has the relationship deteriorated to such an extent as to make Hicks unsalvageable? Can the Yankees receive any signs in spring that Hicks will not crumble in The Bronx?
Here in this little sliver of the world we are not a hostage to format. This might be 3Up, but I think there are four big-picture ways this offseason can play out for the Yankees:
1. They re-sign Aaron Judge, and then keep spending big to join the Dodgers and Mets with near-$300 million payrolls.
2. They re-sign Judge, and are relatively more frugal afterward, settling in with a payroll more in the $260 million-$270 million range.
3. They don’t re-sign Judge, and they compensate by making lavish additions elsewhere.
4. They don’t re-sign Judge, and they attempt to reset their tax situation by going under the first threshold of $233 million.
Before we do a dive into each scenario, first let’s cover items that will be universal for each:
The Yankees will work hard to get rid of the $29 million ($21 million next season and $8 million due on the buyout of a 2024 option) owed Josh Donaldson and the three years at $30.5 million (plus another $1 million in an assignment bonus if there is a trade) owed Aaron Hicks.
This will not be easy. The duo (with the assignment bonus) is due a combined $60.5 million. I floated the idea at the GM meetings to a Nationals official of taking those two plus a prospect (more on this in a bit) for Patrick Corbin, who is owed $59 million over the next two years. The rebuilding Nats would get a prospect for the trouble of basically washing money while the Yankees would occupy just one 40-man roster spot with Corbin rather than two with Donaldson/Hicks. They then can hope with their pitching lab work to revive Corbin, who has been one of the majors’ worst pitchers the past three seasons, into a back-end starter or useful reliever. The Nats official essentially told me he wouldn’t put Donaldson on his roster.
The problem with moving Donaldson — beyond that he turns 37 next month and his offense went considerably south — is his prickly reputation precedes him. Most clubs are not going to want anything to do with him, even if the Yankees take back bad money and/or sprinkle a prospect into the trade to make absorbing Donaldson’s deal easier. Remember, the Yankees wanted access to Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ben Rortvedt last year, and the price for doing that was to take on the two onerous years left on Donaldson’s contract plus his baggage.
The Yankees could talk themselves into the idea that Donaldson’s defense at third and occasional power is enough to bring him back next year. I would love to see what a secret ballot of his teammates and coaches would say about that.
No player is untradeable, but some are close. So Hal Steinbrenner might have to decide whether he sees Donaldson as a sunk cost and simply move on. You might notice the Cubs just released Jason Heyward with $22 million left — and he has a reputation as a great guy.
The Mets, in early May last year, released Robinson Cano with most of two years left on his contract. It has been generally reported the Mariners were paying $3.75 million in each of the five seasons that were left on Cano’s deal when he was traded to the Mets. But Seattle actually doubled up on those payouts in Cano’s first Mets season, so as not to owe anything in 2023. Thus, besides paying most of the $20.25 million they owed Cano last year, the Mets are on the hook for $24 million for him this year — unless it is offset by the probably minimum salary if he hooks on elsewhere. Cano’s cost toward the luxury-tax payroll remains the same, though, at $20.25 million for the Mets in 2023.
That is an involved way of saying the Mets are going to pay about $11 million more in all to rid Cano from their roster than the Yankees would have to pay to do the same with Donaldson. It is not impossible the Yankees find a trade for Donaldson in which they offset his money in some way. But if they don’t …
The need to move Hicks is not as desperate. If he were the fourth outfielder, it would just be an expensive luxury. His presence is more about bad mojo that the Yankees don’t need. It became clear that Hicks’ performance got even worse when the fans turned on him completely in 2022.
Arizona’s Madison Bumgarner has two years at $37 million left. But he has a five-team no-trade provision, and everything from his history would suggest he has no desire to play in New York. Plus, word from inside the Diamondbacks is that even as Bumgarner’s effectiveness has waned from his elite heyday, he has been resistant to modern/analytic advancements — which would also make him a bad New York fit.
Would a team such as the White Sox take on Hicks for, say, Lance Lynn (owed $19.5 million) if they also could get their hands on a young pitcher such as Clarke Schmidt? Would a team such as the A’s, who have no major league contracts signed yet for 2023, much less 2024, take on at least part of the Hicks deal if they also could get their hands on some prospects?
The Yankees at this point will be very open to seeing if there is any lingering interest in Albert Abreu, Deivi Garcia and/or Luis Gil as part of an enticement.
Those three pitchers have basically no future with the Yankees. All three are out of options. Gil, who had Tommy John surgery and will likely miss all of next season, can be put on the 60-day injured list, where he would not count toward the 40-man roster. But in 2024, he would have to be all the way back to stick with the Yankees all year or be potentially lost on waivers. That is true for Abreu and Garcia in 2023. Does anyone believe either will make it through the whole season with the Yankees’ major league team next year?
Keep in mind that roster spots are precious. With both Gil and Scott Effross expected to take up 40-man spots all offseason even though neither is likely to pitch next year, the Yankees are essentially operating with a 38-man roster this winter. So some cleansing is going to have to be done. Garcia has probably lost all of his prospect shine. Abreu has shown the kind of erratic talent and lack of control that is true about many arms in pro ball. And Gil, who probably is the most attractive of the group, is recovering from major surgery. Would a rebuilding team see the value of rehabbing him in 2023 to see whether they can have a talented 25-year-old with years of control beginning in 2024?
There’s another item that I think will be true no matter which way the Yankees go: the possibility of trading Gleyber Torres and/or Kiner-Falefa. I think it would be more surprising if both were back next year than if both were gone — and I would be shocked if at least one was not moved. The Yankees let executives at the GM meetings know they were open for business with their middle infielders.
At last year’s trade deadline, the Yanks turned down the Marlins’ ask of Torres and Oswald Peraza for Pablo Lopez and Miguel Rojas. Some form of that proposed deal can be rebuilt. The Mariners have interest in Torres and have bullpen arms that should interest the Yankees even after using Erik Swanson to land another mid-order righty bat from Toronto in Teoscar Hernandez.
Here is my totally made up trade: Torres and Schmidt to the White Sox for Lucas Giolito and Aaron Bummer. Torres and Giolito are roughly a 2023 salary wash, but Chicago gets two years of control with Torres versus having Giolito in his walk year. Schmidt would replace Giolito in the White Sox rotation with five years of club control. Giolito had a down 2022, but did so for a dysfunctional team with a poor defense. He had an ugly confrontation with Donaldson in the past — uglier than the one that Gerrit Cole and Donaldson patched up — so that would have to be considered if the Yankees don’t move Donaldson. Bummer is owed at least $10.5 million over the next two seasons, and, at his healthiest best, is a bit of Zack Britton 2.0 — a lefty with a menacing sinker.
As for Kiner-Falefa, MLB Trade Rumors has him pegged to make $6.5 million in 2023 via the arbitration process. I can’t imagine the Yankees would want to pay that much to a backup infielder — and if Kiner-Falefa is anything more than a reserve, that would be accentuating a 2022 mistake. Teams have to add 2023 contracts to their 40-man personnel by Friday. That is the first hurdle: Will Kiner-Falefa be tendered a contract? I would think so.
One last move I think is true in all offseason scenarios: The Yankees try to secure a lefty-hitting left fielder with retaining Andrew Benintendi perhaps the first priority and Japanese star Masataka Yoshida a possibility if the Yankees think he can handle the defensive assignment in their spacious home left field.
OK, let’s get to the Judge scenarios:
1. Judge stays and the Yankees keep spending. I think if this plays out, it does so in one of two ways: They also make a big play for a starter such as Justin Verlander, or they make a big play for a shortstop such as Carlos Correa or Trea Turner and then use Peraza as a trade chip to upgrade elsewhere, likely in pitching. Anthony Volpe would move to second base and DJ LeMahieu would become the regular third baseman, which is what he should be next year in all scenarios.
When I envision Verlander and the Yankees, I think about Randy Johnson and the Yankees. Johnson and the Yankees kept circling each other, and by the time he joined, it was the lefty’s age-42 season and the Yankees got a pale version of Johnson (and one who clearly hated playing here). Verlander and the Yankees have circled each other a few times. He pitches at the age of 40 next year, though he just won the AL Cy Young at 39.
If not Verlander, Carlos Rodon and Jacob deGrom are also atop the free-agent starting pitching market. Does deGrom even want to play in New York, especially if it is not for the Mets? Is Rodon just too much of a health risk?
The Yanks can play big in the shortstop market, but this will only worsen how bad their decision-making from last offseason looks. They decided not to pursue anyone in an elite free-agent shortstop class because their intention was to use the money to re-sign Judge and they believed Peraza and Volpe were close to the majors.
Now Peraza and Volpe are probably ready, and in this scenario, Judge is signed. If the Yankees invested $300 million-ish in a shortstop now, would it scream that they should have done it a year ago and greatly improved their chances of winning the 2022 title?
2. The Yankees re-sign Judge and are more deliberate elsewhere. They already have retained Anthony Rizzo for two years at $40 million. I think ideally they would like their 2023 infield to be Rizzo at first, Volpe at second, Peraza at short, LeMahieu at third and Oswaldo Cabrera moving all about. The minimum-salary-range deals for Volpe, Peraza and Cabrera would be somewhat of a balance for re-signing Judge, as would moving as much as possible of the money owed to Donaldson and/or Hicks, plus Torres and/or Kiner-Falefa.
Two rookies in the middle infield, plus Cabrera as the rover, is a lot of risk with inexperience for a team trying to win next year. Perhaps the Yankees retain Torres to begin the season at second, start Volpe at Triple-A, and if he earns his way up, they try to revive Torres trade talks during the season.
But keep in mind that new rules might favor the young infield. There is a ban on extreme shifts next year, so middle infielders will need to be rangier. Peraza and Volpe almost certainly have that over Kiner-Falefa and Torres. Also, bigger bases and restrictions on pickoff throws are expected to promote base stealing, as those rules did in the minors last year. Peraza and Volpe were 77 out of 90 in stolen-base tries in 2022 at various levels. Could they provide energy, defense and a different scoring avenue for the 2023 Yankees?
3. The Yankees lose Judge and splurge to replace him. This would have a lot of overtones of the 2013-14 offseason. Cano was their best player and their best homegrown player since Derek Jeter. But the Yankees thought it was too risky to invest so heavily in one player well into his 30s. They had thoughts about trying to go under the luxury-tax threshold, especially with Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera retiring and Alex Rodriguez being suspended for the season.
When Cano signed with the Mariners, however, there was a huge blowback against Hal Steinbrenner that he was not willing to invest like his father. He responded by guaranteeing $458 million to Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Masahiro Tanaka.
Judge is the Yankees’ best player and their best homegrown player since Jeter. Their concern about investing in Judge into his late 30s tempered their extension offer last spring. They could counter and go under the tax in 2023. But if Steinbrenner thought the noise was loud about Cano, just wait for what he hears if Judge gets away.
At that point, they could try to redirect dollars and anger by signing, say, Verlander and Turner plus importing Yoshida. How badly do the Angels want to get out of the eight years at $283.6 million left on Mike Trout? Is he an asset to the sale of the Angels or is that contract deep into his baseball senior citizenry a detriment? Would he accept a trade out of Anaheim? Would Giancarlo Stanton (owed $130 million the next five years by the Yankees) accept a trade to his native Southern California? That is $150 million in savings for the Angels plus perhaps a prospect or two. OK, it is all a pipe dream.
The question the Yankees will have to ask: Is the cost to replace Judge worse than simply paying Judge what he wants, especially considering that Judge has demonstrated he can flourish in New York and the Yankees always have to worry when they dabble outside their walls if they are signing the next Ellsbury?
4. Judge leaves and the Yankees go frugal. Let’s create a pretend number here to sign Judge. Let’s say it’s in the range of eight years at $304 million to nine years at $342 million — $38 million per season. Are the Yankees better for the extent of those years signing Judge or not signing Judge?
In the short term, they are probably better with Judge. He is a great, New York-tested player. But 62 homers has created an amnesia about his age and past health issues that helps him in this market. Let’s try these questions: Do you think Judge is likely to play as well in any future season as he did in his walk year? Do you think he is more likely to play better for the next six years than the six years he just played — and now add on two or three more future years in a contract?
Steinbrenner is committed to keeping Judge. But if he didn’t, there would be logical reasons to let him go beyond Steinbrenner being cheap. If the best strategy is to do what your smartest opponents hope you don’t do, then I would ask this question, too: Do you think the Rays want the Yankees to retain Judge or not? I bet they hope the Yankees pay him a ton. A club such as Tampa Bay needs scenarios in which the Yankees spend poorly to open an avenue to beat them. And watching Judge and Stanton age into a battle for DH at-bats would be ideal for the Rays.
So if the Yankees let Judge go, would it then be wise to counter by not spending a ton of money, especially long-term money? What would that look like? They still would have Rizzo and Stanton. They could keep Torres. They would not suddenly be a team without power, especially if youngsters such as Cabrera, Peraza and Volpe deliver 15-20 homers each. They can use the year to find out about those three youngsters, and perhaps put Schmidt into the rotation to learn whether he can be a full-repertoire starter if they stop forcing him to be just a slider-monster reliever. They will see whether outfielders Jasson Dominguez and Everson Pereira and lefty-hitting catcher Austin Wells can make it to the majors — or if they improve or worsen their prospect standing.
In the best case, that is still an 85-plus win team that can augment at the July trade deadline. And the Phillies just showed it is about getting into the tournament healthy and getting hot at the right time.
Either way, if it succeeds or fails, the Yankees will have learned a lot about themselves, and can then try for Shohei Ohtani in free agency next offseason and/or Juan Soto in the one after that.
This is the scenario I believe is the least likely to occur because I do think Steinbrenner will do everything to sign Judge and will not just go mild if he fails there. But if the Yankees do not retain Judge, this scenario should not be simply dismissed. It arguably could leave the Yankees in a better place for the long-term future.
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