Insider reveals likelihood of Trey Lance trade

NBC Sports’ Peter King revealed the chances that the San Francisco 49ers trade quarterback Trey Lance this offseason in his latest column.

Back in 2021, the San Francisco 49ers traded a bunch of NFL Draft capital to move up to the third overall pick, and used it to select Trey Lance out of North Dakota State.

Lance was supposed to be the starting quarterback for the foreseeable future. But he fractured his ankle two games into the 2022 season and watched the final pick of last year’s draft, Brock Purdy, lead the team to the NFC Championship Game.

Recently, NFL Network national insider Ian Rapoport reported that the 49ers are fielding calls from teams interested in trading for Lance.

But what are the actual chances that the team moves on from Lance after just two seasons?

NBC Sports’ Peter King revealed in his latest “Football Morning in America” column the chances he sees of Lance being traded this offseason. Those chances are at “7.86-percent.”

“The Niners pick at 99, 101 and 102 thanks to the God of Compensatory Picks, or sooner if they deal Trey Lance. I’d say the chances of a Lance trade are about 7.86 percent,” writes King. “You’d think the Texans or Colts would at least show some interest in Lance, and maybe they will. But so far, crickets. Of course, it’s impossible to know what Lance is right now. He’s thrown a total of 420 passes in the five years since leaving high school. Sounds incredible, but you can look it up.”

Peter Kings says chances of 49ers trading Trey Lance are low

Insert “so you’re saying there’s a chance” GIF of Lloyd Christmas from the “Dumb and Dumber” film.

After this column was published, 49ers general manager John Lynch met with the media days before the NFL Draft. When asked about Lance’s status with the team, Lynch said, “I expect Trey to be here.”

“…we’re excited about Trey’s ability to compete and what he can do for our franchise just as we were when we drafted Trey,” Lynch said, h/t ESPN. “And I think the only thing that’s changed this offseason is that Trey’s gone and got himself healthy. He was injured last year. He’s done a really good job of doing that. He’s done some different things in terms of his training this offseason. He’s very encouraged by that, and we’ll see when we get an opportunity to get out there on the field with him. But we have every reason to be encouraged as well.”

Lance sat behind Jimmy Garoppolo during his rookie season, and the team made it to the NFC Championship Game. He had a rough start in Week 1 this past season in rainy Chicago against the Bears. Then in Week 2, he broke his ankle against the Seahawks.

Garoppolo led the team to 7-of-10 wins in subsequent starts but broke his foot against the Miami Dolphins in Week 13.

Purdy then stepped in, went 5-0 in starts in the regular season, and helped the team win against the Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys in the first two rounds of the playoffs. But in the NFC Championship Game against the Philadelphia Eagles, Purdy tore the UCL in his right elbow, and admitted that he may not be ready to play next season.

As of now, Lance and former New York Jets and Carolina Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold will be the only ones active on the depth chart. Perhaps Purdy will enter the fray if he progresses in his recovery.

But as of now, it sounds as though the 49ers will be keeping Lance on the roster.