Giants’ Saquon Barkley may not see a favorable free agent market

New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley will be eligible for free agency next month if he and the team can’t come to a contract agreement beforehand.

The Giants could also use the franchise tag — as they did last year — to retain Barkley’s services for 2024 at a one-year guaranteed price of approximately $12.4 million.

But what would happen if the Giants allowed Barkley to test the free agent waters? What would his market be?

Dan Duggan, who covers the Giants for The Athletic, polled Pro Football Focus salary cap analyst Brad Spielberger and The Athletic’s resident GM, Randy Mueller, to get a sense of what Barkley is facing on the open market.

“What’s working in the (veteran) running backs’ favor this offseason is it’s not perceived to be a very good draft class,” Spielberger said.

Barkley would be joined by several other star running backs on the free agent market, including Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs, D’Andre Swift, and have to compete for jobs, which could bring the price of running backs down this spring.

We already know that there are teams that would be interested in Barkley, such as Jim Harbaugh’s Los Angeles Chargers, so he could be at the top of the list.

“This is just my opinion, I could see making a case for him being the top offensive guy on the free agent board for some teams,” Mueller said. “If I’m a team with an underperforming running game, and feel like I need a shot in the arm, I don’t think it’s crazy money. So it’s risky (for the Giants) to not tag him unless you’re okay with him leaving, I think.”

Even as a top option, Barkley projected value falls well below what he was seeking last offseason — a number he’s likely to stick to this year.

Pro Football Focus projects Barkley’s market value at $11 million per year, while Spotrac estimates Barkley at an average annual salary of $9.9 million. Over The Cap’s 2023 valuation is at $7.9 million.

Spielberger concurs with PFF’s estimate, guessing Barkley’s ultimate contract lands in the $11-12 million range (per year), and it all goes back to the franchise tag number.

The Giants can simply place the franchise tag on Barkley and avoid all of this. Barkley has said he does not wish for things to play out that way. He may not have a choice.

The Giants are looking at an offseason of change and only have around $22 million in cap space to address their many glaring needs. Tagging Barkley would cut into that number significantly, as would any long-term deal they would eventually sign him to.

Schoen and Giants head coach Brian Daboll come from Buffalo and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka from Kansas City. Both organizations employ a running backs-by-committee approach.

Last year, they drafted Oklahoma’s Eric Gray and this year they could add another back to the mix. That might happen regardless of whether Barkley returns.

Retaining Barkley is no doubt a major topic of conversation at 1925 Giants Drive this offseason but the Giants could simply let Barkley play the market and take their chances. They haven’t won much with him, so they might risk trying their luck without him.