Rural India Has a Diabetes Problem

South India has a higher rate of diabetes compared to North India, possibly due to its partiality towards white rice, which has a high glycaemic index. | Picture courtesy: Total Health
  • Opinion by Sweta Akundi
  • Inter Press Service

Reddyappa Reddy walks in and takes the seat opposite Dr Kumar. “Ten years ago I found out I have diabetes. I took Dr Kumar’s advice. Today, I walk up and down the lengths of a mango farm every day after dinner,” says Reddyappa, who is in his sixties. Dr Kumar adds that Reddy is an inspiration to the other patients at the clinic.

The numbers game

In 2013, Apollo Foundation’s Total Health initiative conducted a household survey of 195 villages and 32 gram panchayats in the Thavanampalle mandal. We screened 31,453 people for health data and found that 6.2 percent had diabetes. In addition, 16.7 percent of men and 12.2 percent of women were obese, a risk factor for diabetes.

Today, the numbers in the mandal have shot up, with 10.1 percent of the people suffering from diabetes. This is still less than the national average; diabetes in rural and urban India grew from 2.4 percent and 3.3 percent respectively in 1972 to 15 percent and 19 percent in 2015, according to a 2021 meta-analysis published in Annals of Epidemiology.

At 74.7 million people living with the disease, India is home to the second largest population of people with diabetes (after China). While the prevalence of diabetes is twice as high in urban India as compared to rural areas, Total Health has chalked it out to be one of the biggest causes of concern in Thavanampalle mandal, where its work primarily lies.

“I saw 600 people last month, of whom 200 had diabetes,” says Dr V Bhargav, who heads a mobile clinic unit. Most people who get diabetes are above the age of 50. Compare this to the national numbers:

A 2009 study found that of the people living with diabetes, 54 percent develop it before reaching 50 years of age. The same study says that the onset of diabetes among Indians is about a decade earlier than their Western counterparts.

Change in rural diet

“The environment in rural India is changing, starting from what we eat,” says Dr T Swarna, who heads a satellite clinic in Thavanampalle.

In 2016, the authors of a study conducted in Krishnagiri in Northwest Tamil Nadu identified the primary factors that “have catalysed dietary changes leading to rising prevalence of diabetes”. Of course, there is the increased availability of ‘city foods’ such as sugar-laden sodas and sweets, as well as trans-fat-laced chips and bakery goods.

But, more significantly, the availability of free polished rice at ration shops through the public distribution system (PDS) makes it the staple food of the region.

Less than 150 km from Krishnagiri, in Thavanampalle, doctors have observed a similar shift to rice as the staple. South India has a higher rate of diabetes compared to North India, possibly due to its partiality towards white rice, which has a high glycaemic index. When eaten as kanji (rice porridge) with the water it is cooked in, the starchy rice meal spikes blood sugar levels.

“The local feeling is that you are not full until you have had a rice meal,” says Dr M Gayathri, who heads our AYUSH clinic in Aragonda. The main aim is to keep hunger at bay, because not many people have the luxury of eating meat and fruit. Seasonal vegetables are affordable, but most plates are filled with rice and just a small portion of vegetables.

A rice meal is filling and cheap. “Farm labourers who leave for work at eight in the morning want a heavy meal that lasts through the day,” says Dr Bhargav. Wheat is not locally grown, so rotis are not commonly eaten. Dr Swarna adds, “People believe chapatis cause heat in the body when had in the morning.”

Rice is replacing millets such as ragi, which used to be popular in Thavanampalle. “We still make ragi balls, but the ratio of ragi to rice flour (2:1) has reversed because of changing tastes,” says Dr Bhargav.

Reddy is conscious of this. He says, “I include as many green, leafy vegetables in my meals as possible and have completely cut down on tea (most villages sweeten tea heavily).” However, he still depends on the PDS and can’t afford brown rice or red rice that were once regular traditional foods but have now become trendy ‘urban foods’, which has pushed up their prices.

“Before the Green Revolution in India, there were a hundred different varieties of rice in our diet,” says Jayanthi Somasundaram, head of Spirit of the Earth in Chennai (which promotes heritage rice), pointing to varieties such as thooyamalli, kaatuyanam, and mapillai champa.

“Until the 1950s to ‘60s, there was a conception that white rice, consumed by the elite, was superior. For the middle class, who would have millets, white rice became aspirational,” she says. Krishna Prasad, founder of the Karnataka-based Sahaja Samrudha, adds that as milling technology improved, the more polished rice became, and the more aromatic and of higher quality it seemed to people.

He recalls the Rayalaseema area of Andhra Pradesh in the 1960s: “Before it became popular for cash crops such as cotton and groundnut, the area, with its saline soil, used to grow many varieties of red rice.”

Over the years, diet isn’t the only thing that has changed, says R Indrani, another Thodathara resident living with diabetes. “I think the change in the crops we grow has also affected our lifestyle,” she says. Thavanampalle has traditionally been famous for its sugarcane fields and the jaggery it produced. She adds, “We used to have a sugarcane field as well. But now there are very few of them left. Like most farmers here, we shifted to cultivating 10 acres of mango.

Unlike sugarcane, which requires constant water and labour, the work in mango fields is seasonal and less intensive.” The doctors at Total Health suspect that this reduction in physical activity combined with changing diets could be one of the contributing factors to diabetes. “I can’t eat the mangoes I grow,” Indrani says with an ironic laugh.

Screening for diabetes

Indrani found out she has diabetes only a year ago when she attended an eye screening camp. “People here are not that keen on regular testing. Unless they can physically see that there is a problem, such as frequent urination, they won’t come. Their attitude is not preventative,” says Dr Gayathri.

“Often, when they first come to us, their blood glucose level is already at 11 percent (the normal level is 6.5 percent). They could have had diabetes for many years but they may have just not known it,” says Dr Swarna.

In fact, about one in every two Indians in the 15–49 age group living with diabetes is unaware of their condition, according to a study conducted by the Public Health Foundation of India in 2019. Of those aware, only a quarter have it under control. The study also found that rural men are more susceptible to diabetes.

“One fear we see among people is the idea that once they start medication, they will have to continue taking it for a lifetime. People here don’t like becoming dependent on medicines,” says Dr Gayathri.

Doctors are unanimous in their view that the focus must be on pre-diabetes—its prevention and control. On the preventive health front, a traditional kitchen revival, where a more diverse diet is practised, and rice does not form the centrepiece, may help.

The more difficult challenge is the attitudinal shift towards movement. In Thavanampalle, as in many rural and urban areas in India, physical work is linked with class hierarchy. The more prosperous a family gets, the more help they can afford and the less functional their movements become.

Additionally, it is important to manage low- to moderate-risk diabetes in people to prevent it from turning into something more serious. As seen in the results of the national NCD survey conducted this year, adequate screening, conducting regular health camps, and increasing awareness about diabetes as a lifestyle disease is how people who have not yet got the disease can prevent it.

Sweta Akundi is a content writer for Apollo Foundation, where she brings out stories from the villages of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana

This story was originally published by India Development Review (IDR)

© Inter Press Service (2022) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

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Moldovans open their borders, homes and hearts – UN chief — Global Issues

People have opened their homes and their hearts to the Ukrainians”, he said, in admiration for the hospitality being extended to the refugees.

Home away from home

UN Photo/Mark Garten

During his visit, the UN chief stopped in on a couple hosting refugees in their two-room apartment.

Vasiliy and Klavdia Turkanu, a retired couple, have taken in a mother, daughter and grandmother–  all refugees from Nikolayev. And previously, they had hosted two men from Odessa.

“We understand what they are going through,” Klavdia said sadly, assuring that their guests are welcome to stay until the end of the war.

We become homesick when travelling. And they can’t go back home”.

Her husband wondered, “why do people wage wars when they could live in peace and negotiate everything in an amicable manner”.

Mr. Guterres was impressed by their hospitality, acknowledging that “it is a strong emotional experience to communicate with people forced to abandon their homes under such dramatic circumstances”.

Moldova can serve as an example of solidarity,” he added.

Cash works best

The UN chief maintained that under the circumstances, cash assistance is the best form of support.

UN agencies, including UN refugees, UNHCR, and UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) help those on the move with a Cash Assistance Programme.

“We are really grateful to Moldova and the United Nations for their assistance and support,” Lubov Fedorovna from Chernobayevka told the Secretary-General.

“Our village became famous because of the war as rockets literally flew above our heads,” she continued with tears streaming down her cheeks.

MoldExpo – Refugee Centre

Having temporarily settled in Moldova’s largest refugee centre  on the MoldExpo exhibition grounds – Irina, a mother of four from the Odessa region, could not contain her sobs.

“We left almost immediately the war had begun, really frightened for our children. And yesterday we learned that our shopping centre is totally ruined”, she told Mr. Guterres.

Since the beginning of the war, this and other reception centers have processed almost half a million refugees.

And at the peak of Ukraine’s mass, the Chisinau complex housed over ten thousand people.

Although most have moved on to different countries, approximately one hundred thousand remain in Moldova.

The multi-layered crisis requires food, shelter, psychological support, and medical assistance – problems familiar to the UN chief during his years as UN High Commissioner for Refugees.

Moldova support the refugees with basic amenities with help from the UN family – including UNHCR, UNICEF, the Population Fund (UNFPA), International Organization for Migration (IOM) and World Food Program (WFP).

Easy targets

What is unique about this crisis is that the refugees are mainly women and children, observed the UN Secretary-General

“Men are not allowed to leave Ukraine, women and children are alone, and they are vulnerable, he said speaking to non-governmental organizations working with UN Women.

“They can easily become victims of gender-based violence or human trafficking”.

In cooperation with Moldova’s law-enforcement agencies and civil society, the UN is doing everything it can to protect Ukrainians from such crimes.

On guard

The Women’s Law Centre works at the border and alerts women to a possible danger.

Its head, Mariana Buruiana, called “awareness” the principal weapon against such crimes.

UN News discussed a recent complaint with the head of another organization, “La Strada”.

Elena Botezatu recounted that some employees became suspicious when they noticed how a man was treating his travel companion, a young woman.

“We immediately informed the specialized anti-human-trafficking unit of Moldovan police,” she said. 

Supporting Moldova

Although the war in Ukraine has exerted tremendous pressure on the economy of Moldova, the UN chief reminded that the country is not a member of the European Union and , cannot count on its support.

He assured President Maia Sandu during a meeting that the UN would not abandon Moldova and urged the international community to support the small European country that has taken in the largest number of refugees in relation to its population size.

UN Photo/Mark Garten

UN Secretary-General António Guterres (left) greets Maia Sandu, President of the Republic of Moldova.

Youth matter

Despite his busy schedule, the Secretary-General made time to meet with representatives of Moldova’s youth.

Members of the UN Moldova Adolescents and Youth Advisory Panel raised the important topic of young people leaving the country en masse in search of a better life.

To stop the exodus, Mr. Guterres stressed the importance of securing certain conditions in their homeland, such as an education, work and financial independence.

The top UN official promised to mobilize the international community to provide the comprehensive support that Moldova has earned.



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Latest prison riot highlights need for criminal justice reform — Global Issues

More than 44 people died, and over a dozen were injured, after riots broke out on Monday at the prison, located in the northern city of Santo Domingo, OHCHR Spokesperson Liz Throssell said, citing the authorities. 

The riots were reportedly provoked by the transfer of a prisoner known as ‘Anchundia’, linked to the R7 gang, from La Roca prison in the south-west to the facility in Santo Domingo. 

‘Worrying incidents’ 

This marked the latest violence to erupt in prisons in the South American country.  Fifteen people were injured in clashes between prisoners from different gangs in El Inca prison in the capital, Quito, on 25 April.   

Three days earlier, disturbances at the Esmeralda No. 2 prison, located on the northern coast, left 12 inmates wounded.  

“These worrying incidents once again highlight the urgent need for a comprehensive reform of the criminal justice system, including the penitentiary system to tackle what has been a protracted crisis in the country,” Ms. Throssell told journalists in Geneva. 

Call for investigation 

From December 2020 to May 2022, at least 390 people have been killed in Ecuador’s prisons, including some 20 inmates at a prison in the south of the country on 3 April, she added.  

“We emphasize that the responsibility of the State for the security of all people in its custody creates a presumption of State responsibility for these deaths and call for a full investigation of these incidents.” 

Ms. Throssell recalled that in February, Ecuador’s President, Guillermo Lasso, had launched a public policy of social rehabilitation of prisoners.  

The plan had been developed with significant technical support from OHCHR, and in consultation with a large cross-section of Ecuadorian society, including the families of prisoners as well as prisoners themselves. 

“We encourage the State to take vigorous steps and provide adequate resources to implement this policy,” she said. 

Roadmap for security 

OHCHR also called on the Government to carefully examine recommendations in its 2019 report on human rights in the administration of justice, that are aimed at reducing violence, deaths and serious injury in detention

The authorities were also urged to consider a roadmap proposed by OHCHR and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) to guarantee security in prisons and ensure better prison management, including by combating corruption, among other measures.  

“The UN Human Rights Office will continue collaborating with other UN agencies as we remain committed to support Ecuador in facing this urgent challenge, based on human rights and in line with international norms and standards,” said Ms. Throssell. 

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Human rights must be ‘front and centre’ in the fight against terrorism: Guterres — Global Issues

“As a moral duty, a legal obligation, and a strategic imperative – let’s put human rights where they belong: Front and centre in the fight against terror,” Mr. Guterres said in a video message to the High-Level International conference on Human Rights, Civil Society and Counter-Terrorism

The two-day event is taking place against the backdrop of the growing threat of terrorism across the globe, and the resulting increase in related legislation and policies. 

Assault on human rights 

During the conference, governments, international organizations, civil society and human rights defenders will examine how to formulate terrorism responses that comply with human rights and the rule of law, and ensure meaningful participation of civil society in counter-terrorism efforts. 

“This gathering reflects a central truth. Terrorism is not only an attack on innocent people. It represents an all-out assault on human rights,” said the Secretary-General. 

The threat is growing and global, he added, listing examples such as the continued expansion of Da’esh and Al-Qaeda in Africa, and resurgent terrorism in Afghanistan. 

The UN chief spoke of how extremist groups are targeting women and girls with gender-based violence, including sexual violence, while terrorists are also using technology to “spread and export lies, hatred and division at the touch of a button.” 

Meanwhile, xenophobia, racism and cultural and religious intolerance are accelerating. 

Reaffirm core values 

Mr. Guterres warned that at the same time, global responses to terrorism can make things worse. 

“In the name of security, humanitarian aid is often blocked – increasing human suffering. Civil society and human rights defenders are silenced – particularly women. And survivors of terrorism and violence are left without the support and access to justice they need to rebuild their lives,” he said. 

The Secretary-General called for reaffirming commitment to core values, including by investing in health, education, protection, gender equality, and justice systems that are accessible to all people. 

This must also include safeguarding humanitarian action, respecting international law and “opening the door to civil society – and especially women – to meaningfully engage with counter-terrorism efforts.” 

Ensuring long-term efforts 

The high-level conference is jointly organized by the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) and Spain. 

In his opening remarks, Mr. Vladimir Voronkov, UN Under-Secretary-General for Counter-Terrorism, stressed that “countering terrorism helps protect human rights, but only if human rights are protected while countering terrorism.”  

Moreover, he added the violation or abuse of human rights only plays into terrorists’ hands, as they seek to provoke heavy-handed and indiscriminate responses from security forces. 

“Terrorists do this with the aim of undermining public confidence in the ability of governments to protect their own citizens.  That is why a human rights-based approach is not aimed at challenging or frustrating counterterrorism initiatives,” he said. 

“On the contrary, it’s essential to ensure effective, long-term, and sustainable counter-terrorism efforts.” 

Global strategy 

The conference follows a virtual dialogue held last year with human rights and civil society partners, also convened by the UNOCT and Spain.   

Several thematic sessions will focus on issues such as human rights, the rule of law and principled humanitarian action in the context of counter-terrorism efforts; and support for victims and survivors of terrorism. 

Prior to the opening, a workshop and six side events were held to accelerate momentum and commitment towards implementing the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy in a balanced manner. 

The strategy, adopted by the UN General Assembly in 2006, includes measures that range from strengthening State capacity to counter terrorist threats to and better coordinating the UN’s System’s counter-terrorism activities. 

The Foreign Minister of Spain, José Manuel Albares Bueno, who also addressed the opening ceremony, expressed high hopes for the conference.  

“The diversity of the themes is a true reflection of the comprehensive nature of the Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy in its seventh review, which was co-facilitated by Spain and adopted by consensus by the General Assembly in June last year,” he said. 

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Ghanas Human Trafficking Scourge — Global Issues

Caught in a web of deceit, a human trafficking survivor from Ghana tells her story. Credit: Tim Tebow/Unsplash
  • by Jamila Akweley Okertchiri (accra)
  • Inter Press Service

Cissy says although she was a bit sceptical about the offer and afraid of her destination country, the so-called travel agent convinced her that she had nothing to worry about.

“He said I had a host mom who would receive me at the airport. In fact, she was the one sponsoring my trip, and I am supposed to work for her, and he claimed the work was legitimate,” Cissy adds.

However, the story changed when she arrived at the airport of her destination country.

“A man came to pick me up and collected my passport. I was taken to a house where I saw other young African women kept in the room, some having price tags. It was at that time I realised what I had gotten myself into,” she narrates.

She and the other women were later smuggled illegally into Iraq to work as domestic workers.

“I saw how my own African sisters were physically and mentally abused. Some were sexually harassed and subjected to forced labour on an empty stomach,” Cissy says.

She wanted to return to Ghana but was unable to until several months later.

After countless failed escape attempts, which left her fighting for her life, she finally had a breakthrough and was able to return home with the help of a good Samaritan and the authorities.

Since she returned last November, Cissy has devoted her time to irregular migration advocacy activities.

“I am happy to be alive today to tell you my story but not all the young ladies who travel out get the chance I got to return home to their families,” she says.

Assistant Superintendent of Police William Ayaregah says human trafficking is multifaceted and covers several situations from debt bondage, exploitation, and organised crimes.

Issues of human trafficking continue to be a human right violation and cancer in Ghanaian society because it is a country of origin, transit, and destination for victims of human trafficking, Ayaregah, who is the Deputy Director of the Anti-Human Trafficking Unit in the Criminal Investigation Department.

Likewise, the Gulf of Guinea is characterised by cross-border and irregular migration, human trafficking, and child exploitation.

ASP Ayaregah says recently, the unit, with a Non-Governmental Organisation, End Modern Slavery (EMS), and the Social Welfare Department, rescued four children, two boys and two girls, from a trafficker and reunited them with their families.

He reveals that the two boys, aged 10 and 13, were trafficked by a family friend identified as Rose, a trader from Berekum-Senase in the Bono East Region of Ghana. She said the children would attend school while staying with her in Accra.

Instead of sending the children to school, as she promised, she sent the boys onto the streets to hawk.

Ayaregah says the suspect, upon her arrest and investigation, claimed that she has been sending Ghc30 (about 4 US dollars) to the boys’ parents in Berekum every month.

In another case, two girls, aged 13 and 17, were brought from Akim-Aboabo in the Birim Central Municipality and Adeiso to engage in ‘gari’, a dried cassava business at Amanase in the Ayensuano District in the Eastern part of the country.

The Director of Operations of End Modern Slavery, Afasi Komla, explains that “many victims of human trafficking have had traumatic post-rescue experiences during interviews and legal proceedings.

“In their attempts to get help, they have experienced ignorance, misunderstanding, victimisation, and punishment from offences their traffickers had them commit,” he says.

He adds that through the foundation, they have been able to help in identifying and saving hundreds of victims and supporting their rehabilitation.

Deputy Minister For Gender, Children and Social Protection, Hajia Lariba Abudu, says the country has responded to the issues of human trafficking in diverse ways. It passed the Human Trafficking Act, 2005 Act 694 to prevent, reduce and punish human trafficking offences and for the rehabilitation and reintegration of trafficked persons and related matters.

“The Ministry, together with our partners, we embark on community advocacy and engagements to educate the public on the dangers of human trafficking,” she says.

Abudu further indicates that together with the law enforcement officers, Social Workers and NGOs, the country in 2021 rescued 842 victims of human trafficking, gave comprehensive trauma-informed care, and reintegrated 812 of them.

“On the 1st of February 2019, the adults’ shelter was opened, and 178 adult female victims of trafficking have been cared for, and we are still receiving and caring for victims at the shelter now,” she says. “The Children’s Shelter was also fully operationalised in August 2020 and has cared for 98 child victims.”

She adds that the department received and investigated 108 cases, 42 being sex trafficking, 60 labour trafficking and six related cases that started as human trafficking offences.

“Thirty–four cases were sent to court for prosecution. Out of those, 22 cases were prosecuted involving 37 defendants, and we have gained 17 convictions for the country,” she adds.

Abudu says that even though a lot has been achieved, it is still not enough and calls for stronger partnerships to reduce human trafficking incidences, strengthen government institutions, and increase public knowledge.

This article is part of a series of features from across the globe on human trafficking. IPS coverage is supported by the Airways Aviation Group.
The Global Sustainability Network ( GSN ) is pursuing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal number 8 with a special emphasis on Goal 8.7, which “takes immediate and effective measures to eradicate forced labour, end modern slavery and human trafficking and secure the prohibition and elimination of the worst forms of child labour, including recruitment and use of child soldiers, and by 2025 end child labour in all its forms”.
The origins of the GSN come from the endeavours of the Joint Declaration of Religious Leaders signed on 2 December 2014. Religious leaders of various faiths gathered to work together “to defend the dignity and freedom of the human being against the extreme forms of the globalization of indifference, such as exploitation, forced labour, prostitution, human trafficking”.

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Finance Drives World to Stagflation — Global Issues

  • Opinion by Jomo Kwame Sundaram, Anis Chowdhury (sydney and kuala lumpur)
  • Inter Press Service

Nonetheless, “The ratio of fervent beliefs to tangible evidence seems unusually high on this topic”. Unsurprisingly, central banks are still trying to keep inflation below 2% – an arbitrary target “plucked out of the air”, due to a “chance remark” by New Zealand’s finance minister then.

Raising interest rates will derail recovery and worsen supply disruptions and shortages due to the pandemic, war and sanctions. European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Fabio Panetta has noted the euro zone is “de facto stagnating” as economic growth has almost stopped.

As policymakers struggle with inflation, growth and wellbeing are being subjected to huge risks. As Panetta warns, “monetary tightening aimed at containing inflation would end up hampering growth that is already weakening”.

Interest rates rising globally
Among emerging markets and developing economies, South Africa’s central bank raised interest rates for the first time in three years in November 2021.

On 24 March 2022, the Bank of Mexico raised interest rates for the seventh consecutive time. On the same day, Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates to its highest level since 2017.

Without evidence or reasoning, they insist higher interest rates will check inflation. Their recognized adverse effects for recovery and growth are dismissed as unavoidably necessary short-term costs for some unspecified long-term gains.

But despite facing higher inflationary expectations, tightening international monetary conditions, and Ukraine war uncertainties, the ECB and Bank of Japan have not joined the bandwagon, refusing to raise policy interest rates so far.

Interest rate – blunt tool
But central bankers’ dogmatic stances, knee-jerk responses and ‘follow the leader’ behaviour are not helpful. Even when inflation reaches dangerous levels, raising interest rates may still not be the right policy response for several reasons.

First, raising interest rates only addresses the symptoms – not the causes – of inflation. Inflation is often said to be a consequence of an economy ‘overheating’. But overheating can be due to many factors.

Higher interest rates may relieve overheating, by slowing economic activity. But a good doctor should first investigate and diagnose an ailment’s causes before prescribing appropriate treatment – which may or may not require medication.

It is widely accepted that the current inflationary surge is due to supply chain disruptions – exacerbated by war and sanctions – especially of essential goods such as food and fuel. If so, long-term solutions require increasing supplies, including by removing bottlenecks.

Higher interest rates reduce aggregate demand. But simply raising interest rates does not even address the specific causes of inflation, let alone rising prices due to supply disruptions of essential goods, such as food and fuel.

Interest rate – indiscriminate
Second, the interest rate affects all sectors, everyone. It does not even distinguish between sectors or industries needing to expand or be encouraged, and those that should be phased out, for being less productive or inefficient.

Also, raising interest rates too often, and to excessively high levels, can squeeze, or even kill productive and efficient businesses along with inefficient or less productive ones.

US bankruptcies had soared in the early 1980s after US Fed chair Volcker’s legendary interest rate spike. “Thousands of businesses that took out bank loans could fail”, warned a leading UK tax advisory firm recently.

Third, interest rates do not distinguish among households and businesses. Higher interest rates may discourage household expenditure, but also dampen all kinds of spending – for both consumption and investment.

Hence, overall demand may shrink – discouraging investment in new technology, plant, equipment and skills. Thus, higher interest rates adversely affect long-term productive capacities and technological progress of economies.

Debt, recessions and financial crises
Fourth, higher interest rates raise debt servicing costs for governments, businesses and households. With the exceptionally low interest rates previously available after the 2008-09 global financial crisis (GFC), debt burdens rose in most countries.

These undoubtedly encouraged risky, speculative behaviour as well as unproductive share buybacks, increased dividends, and mergers & acquisitions. Interest rate hikes have triggered many recessions and financial crises. Thus, raising interest rates now will likely trigger a new, albeit different era of stagflation.

The pandemic has pushed public debt to historic new highs. Forty-four per cent of low-income and least developed countries were at high risk of, or already in external debt distress in 2020.

Before the COVID-19 crisis, half the small island developing states surveyed already had solvency problems, i.e., were at high risk of, or already in debt distress. Thus, raising interest rates can trigger a global debt crisis.

Fifth, paradoxically, higher interest rates raise debt-servicing expenses, especially mortgage payments, for indebted households. Costs of living also rise if businesses pass higher interest costs on to consumers by raising prices.

Hence, the main beneficiaries of low inflation and higher interest rates are the holders of financial assets who fear the relative diminution of their value.

Developing countries vulnerable
Developing countries are particularly vulnerable. Higher interest rates in developed countries – particularly the US – trigger capital outflows from developing countries – causing exchange rate depreciations and inflationary pressures.

Higher interest rates and weaker exchange rates will aggravate already high debt service burdens – as happened in Latin America in the early 1980s after US Fed chair Volcker greatly increased US interest rates.

To discourage sudden capital outflows and prevent large currency depreciations, developing countries raise interest rates sharply. This may lead to economic collapse – as in Indonesia during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.

Although pandemic response measures – such as debt moratoria – provided some relief, business failures rose nearly 60% in 2020 from 2019. Middle- and low-income countries saw more business failures.

The World Bank’s Pulse Enterprise Survey – of 24 middle- and low-income countries – found 40% of businesses surveyed in January 2021 expected to be in arrears within six months.

This included more than 70% of firms in Nepal and the Philippines, and over 60% in Turkey and South Africa. Business failures of such scale can trigger banking crises as non-performing loans suddenly soar.

Instead of checking contemporary inflation, raising interest rates is likely to greatly damage recovery and medium-term growth prospects. Hence, it is imperative for developing countries to innovatively develop appropriate means to better address the economic dilemmas they face.

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UN Secretary-General Must be Non-Risk Averse, & Play a More Pivotal and Active Role — Global Issues

  • Opinion by Purnaka de Silva (new york)
  • Inter Press Service

The war in Ukraine appears to have displaced other ongoing major wars in Yemen, Ethiopia, and Myanmar in the global public imagination thanks to the 24/7 news cycle. The primary mandate of the United Nations is to ensure the maintenance of Global Peace and Security, sadly we seem to have neither, apart from a lot of talk by eminent personages with little or no action to redress the dystopian realities and carnage on the ground.

The Latin motto res, non verba comes to mind – meaning “deeds, and not words” – as quite an appropriate model for the United Nations to adopt rather than sticking to ‘business as usual’ – which is quite lame and pathetic to say the least in these trying times.

Secretary-General António Guterres must not leave diplomacy, mediation, and negotiation to half-baked UN diplomats out in the field and even within his own Executive Office – UN-EOSG.

In the context of current world affairs and international relations, it is imperative that the Secretary-General plays a more pivotal and far-greater active role to uphold the primary mandate of the United Nations and ensure the maintenance of Global Peace and Security.

The time for protecting the image and status of the UN Secretary-General is over, as well as being held hostage by the P-5 Permanent Member States of the UN Security Council who have run roughshod over all current and previous UN Secretaries-General.

Rather than being risk averse, Secretary-General Guterres must play a much more active and visible role on the global stage and behind-the-scenes – traveling incessantly to war-torn UN member states to meet the protagonists regularly and personally mediating, using his high office and moral standing to good effect – to boost UN mediation efforts.

Reminiscent of the active and energetic interventions of one of his predecessors, the late Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjold, who sadly paid the ultimate price along with 15 other UN advisors, bodyguards, and aircrew when their plane was shot down on September 18, 1961, in Northern Rhodesia, now Zimbabwe.

In today’s geopolitical environment, Secretary-General Guterres cannot be seen as one of the last of a long line of diplomats and politicians to visit a war-torn region, as was the case of his recent visit in late April 2022 to Moscow and Kyiv – to put it bluntly this is bad optics.

Secretary-General Guterres must use his Executive Office to better effect and the global public needs to be aware and supportive. Given the very high stakes involved he must be much more proactive regarding Ukraine, and all ongoing wars and armed conflicts in evenhanded fashion – without fear nor favor.

On the plus side Secretary-General Guterres did call the war in Ukraine “evil and unacceptable” and called for justice. However, Guterres’ call fell on deaf ears in Moscow, demonstrated by the fact that Russia launched five missiles striking central Kyiv less than one hour after he held a news conference with Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy.

So, what is to be done when a P-5 Permanent Member State of the UN Security Council goes “rogue” – i.e., beyond the bounds of civilized, rules-based behavior of a nation-state in the 21st Century adhering to tenets of Global Peace and Security enshrined in the UN Charter, the Laws of War, the Geneva Conventions, and the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court – as in the case of Mr. Putin and his government?

Notwithstanding the fact that Secretary-General Guterres is a former Prime Minister of Portugal, he must demonstrate his independence from the Western powers, and immediately follow-up on his Moscow and Kyiv visit by visiting Beijing to enlist President Xi Jingping’s not-so-inconsequential support to put pressure on Moscow to end the aggression in Ukraine and call off the dogs of war.

And while he is negotiating in Beijing, he must also secure the support of China to pressure the Tatmadaw Kyi military junta to standdown and restore democracy without delay in Myanmar to provide relief to its beleaguered peoples. Non-confrontational diplomacy is the key to success in Beijing something that Secretary-General Guterres is adept at doing, which he should use to good effect considering that the Chinese are not belligerents.

Beijing is more inclined towards global trade and commerce and promoting their ambitious “Belt and Road Initiative” global megaproject, which is undoubtedly being hampered by war in Ukraine.

After two bloody world wars where tens of millions of human beings died, nobody wants another largescale inter-European war, which has potential ramifications for militaries and civilians well beyond Europe.

In fact, Mr. Putin’s War of Aggression in Ukraine is already deepening world hunger given that global wheat production, storage and supply is severely hampered by fighting. The power of the United Nations is a reflected power – i.e., that of its leading member states adhering to a rules-based system of global governance – and that power is what all UN Secretaries-General must harness for the greater good through the arts of diplomacy, mediation, and negotiation to maintain Global Peace and Security.

Secretary-General Guterres is urgently called upon to demonstrate his leadership and political acumen in these dystopian and troubled times, using his moral courage as a beacon to rally global publics to support the mandate and mission of the United Nations. The UN Secretary-General cannot and must not be relegated to the role of bystander while belligerents run amok, he/she must lead, irrespective of the personal cost, without fear nor favor.

As for Secretary-General Guterres a devout Catholic (close to His Holiness Pope Francis an outspoken critic of war), he cannot accomplish this mammoth task alone – to enhance his moral authority he needs to harness the power and voice of civil society together with that of the world’s multiple religions – all working together at manifold levels to maintain Global Peace and Security.

Dr Purnaka L. de Silva is Professor UN Studies (M.A. Program) at the School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University, and Director, Institute of Strategic Studies and Democracy (ISSD) Malta. In March 2022 he received Seton Hall University’s College Adjunct Faculty Teacher of the Year Award, and in December 2021 was nominated Diplomacy Professor of the Year by the School of Diplomacy and International Relations.

IPS UN Bureau


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World getting ‘measurably closer’ to 1.5-degree threshold — Global Issues

The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update also reveals a 93 per cent likelihood of at least one year between 2022 to 2026 becoming the warmest on record, thus knocking 2016 from the top spot. 

The chance of the five-year average for this period being higher than the last five years, 2017-2021, is also 93 per cent.  

The 1.5 °C target is the goal of the Paris Agreement, which calls for countries to take concerted climate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to limit global warming. 

Probability rising 

“This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – that we are getting measurably closer to temporarily reaching the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change,” said Petteri Taalas, the WMO Secretary-General.  

“The 1.5°C figure is not some random statistic”, he added, but “rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and indeed the entire planet.” 

The chance of temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C threshold has risen steadily since 2015, according to the report, which was produced by the United Kingdom’s Met Office, the WMO lead centre for climate update predictions.  

Back then, it was close to zero, but the probability increased to 10 per cent over the past five years, and to nearly 50 per cent for the period from 2022-2026.  

Wide-ranging impacts 

Mr. Taalas warned that as long as countries continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise. 

“And alongside that, our oceans will continue to become warmer and more acidic, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea level will continue to rise and our weather will become more extreme. Arctic warming is disproportionately high and what happens in the Arctic affects all of us,” he said. 

The Paris Agreement outlines long-term goals that guide governments towards limiting the global temperature increase to well below 2 °C, while pursuing efforts to limit the increase even further to 1.5 °C. 

© Unsplash/Patrick Perkins

Wildfires raging across parts of the western USA turned the sky over San Francisco orange.

‘Edging ever closer’ 

 The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change further states that climate-related risks are higher for global warming of 1.5 °C than at present, but lower than at 2 °C. 

“Our latest climate predictions show that continued global temperature rise will continue, with an even chance that one of the years between 2022 and 2026 will exceed 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels,” said Dr. Leon Hermanson of the UK Met Office, who led the report.  

“A single year of exceedance above 1.5 °C does not mean we have breached the iconic threshold of the Paris Agreement, but it does reveal that we are edging ever closer to a situation where 1.5 °C could be exceeded for an extended period.” 

Last year, the global average temperature was 1.1 °C above the pre-industrial baseline, according to the provisional WMO report on the State of the Global Climate. The final report for 2021 will be released on 18 May.

WMO said back-to-back La Niña events at the start and end of 2021 had a cooling effect on global temperatures.  However, this is only temporary and does not reverse the long-term global warming trend.  

Any development of an El Niño event would immediately fuel temperatures, the agency said, as happened in 2016, the warmest year on record.

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UN chief calls for probe into deadly armed attack on mining site — Global Issues

At least 38 civilians, including women and children, were killed in the attacks carried out by the Coopérative pour le développement du Congo (CODECO) at the Blakete-Plitu mining site.

More civilians were displaced and reported missing when the attackers set fire to nearby Malika village, where they also reportedly raped six women.   

The UN mission in the country, known by the French acronym MONUSCO, conducted a medical evacuation on Monday, transporting severely injured civilians to medical facilities in the provincial capital, Bunia.

Allow UN access

The Secretary-General has expressed his deepest condolences to the families of the victims and wished a swift recovery to the injured, UN Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said in a statement.

“He calls on the Congolese authorities to investigate these incidents and bring those responsible to justice. The Secretary-General also urges the authorities to ensure MONUSCO’s immediate, free and unimpeded access to the areas of the attacks to facilitate efforts to protect civilians,” it said.

The UN chief has also called for all armed groups in the DRC to halt their “callous attacks” on civilians. 

Combatants were also urged to participate unconditionally in the political process in the country, and to lay down their weapons through the Disarmament, Demobilization, Community Recovery and Stabilization programme.

Mr. Guterres underlined the UN’s continued support to the Congolese Government and people in their efforts towards peace and stability.

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Guterres expresses solidarity as Moldova grapples with fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine — Global Issues

Speaking at a press conference alongside Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilița in the Moldovan capital of Chisinau, the UN chief said: “Moldova is not just another country receiving refugees [and] … I am deeply concerned about the continuation and possible spread of the war Russia is waging in Ukraine, and by the impact it is having not only in the region but around the world.”  

“The United Nations is committed to supporting not only the people of Ukraine, but also the people of Moldova during these difficult times,” said Mr. Guterres, adding: Your sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, and the solid progress you have made over the past three decades, must not be threatened or undermined.”   

UN Photo/Mark Garten

Secretary-General António Guterres meets with Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilița of Moldova.

‘Refugees live with the families of Moldovans’ 

The United Nations started a large-scale operation meant to render assistance to residents of Ukraine, including those on the territory of Moldova: at the border crossing in Palanca refugees are greeted by UN staff who help them find their bearings and to decide what to do next, render material and legal support and provide them with basic necessities. 

“But obviously, that is not enough. We need to do much more,” stressed the Secretary-General at the start of his two-day visit to the country. 

“It was not easy for the UN to readapt to a humanitarian crisis in Europe. Here, we don’t have the traditional forms of humanitarian support in crisis areas of the developing world, in fragile States,” continued Mr. Guterres, adding that in Moldova, there are no refugee camps: Moldovans are opening their homes to Ukrainians. 

The UN has rearranged its ways of working to meet these realities and is currently scaling up its most effective programmes, including for providing cash-assistance. The UN chief said people should be trusted to know what their needs are.  

The UN plans to provide such assistance to 90,000 refugees and 55,000 of the families that that take them in. 

War’s impact ripples through region’s fragile economies  

Moldova is a small European country with “fragile economy”. It is landlocked, and the Odessa port, through which it ships its merchandise to the world market, is closed due to the war.  

Furthermore, Moldova is not just the country that opened its doors to displaced persons, like many of its neighbors: in ratio to the size of its population, it has taken in the highest number of Ukrainian refugees since the start of the Russian invasion.  

While calling for “massive support” to match Moldova’s generosity, the Secretary-General stressed that other neighbouring countries like Moldova are already struggling with the socio-economic ramifications of this war coming on top of the COVID-19 pandemic and the uneven global recovery.    

In light of these and other pressing concerns, the UN chief urged Kyiv and Moscow to “step up diplomatic efforts through dialogue to urgently achieve a negotiated settlement, in line with international law and the UN Charter”, and he called on regional and international partners to support this process “in the interests of global stability.”  

“The impact of the war in Ukraine across the region and the world is profound and far-reaching. The consequences of escalation are too frightening to contemplate,” he stated, stressing: “The Russian invasion of Ukraine must stop. The guns must be silenced.” 

Bedrock of peace and security  

“On 9 May, on this very day, we must remember that dialogue and cooperation based on mutual respect are the bedrock of peace and security in Europe and around the world,” Mr. Guterres said, referring to what is known as ‘Victory Day’, which marks the anniversary of the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II in 1945. 

This year, against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, the anniversary of the victory over fascism was met with some apprehension in Chisinau, with media outlets in the region reporting possible mass actions and even the threat of clashes between supporters of different approaches in assessing those historical events.  

“The fact that I am here on the 9th of May is a pure coincidence. This visit is programmed in association with the meeting of the [United Nations] Chief Executives Board in Vienna, and so, it was convenient, both for the Government of Moldova and for me”, said Mr. Guterres, responding to a question from a journalist. 

The Secretary General congratulated Moldova on the 30th anniversary of joining the United Nations. In 1992, after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the acquisition of independence. In this context, he highly appreciated Moldova’s contribution to peacebuilding, promotion of sustainable development and gender equality, as well as to the fight against climate change.  

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Victory Day in Chisinau, Moldova

Funding for humanitarian aid 

The UN has appealed for $2.5 billion for humanitarian aid in Ukraine, and $1.85 billion for support for Ukrainian refugees in other countries.  

“I urge all countries to give generously. In global terms, these are minuscule sums,” said the Secretary-General, also calling on all countries to consider strengthening their economic cooperation with Moldova. 

While the current flow of refugees to Moldova is not comparable to the first weeks of the war, according to UN officials who have met with Ukrainians fleeing the war at the border, on some days, the number of arrivals increases sharply, usually due to an escalation in hostilities. According to UN estimates, by the end of the year, the number of refugees in Moldova may increase to one million people, with some 250,000 of them possibly remaining in the country. 

Among his other activities today, the Secretary-General met with the Chairman of the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova, Igor Grosu, and on Tuesday he will meet with the President of Moldova, Maia Sandu. 

Tomorrow, the UN chief is also expected to visit the MoldExpo exhibition center, where UN staff and civil society groups are working tirelessly to assist refugees from Ukraine. In addition, Mr. Guterres is also expected to visit one of the Chisinau families that has sheltered Ukrainians.  

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