Week 4 NFL player props, picks: Chubba Hubbard, George Pickens

We’re onto Week 4 in the NFL, and I’m back with three more player props for Sunday’s slate.

Last week, I went 2-0 in this column, bringing my season total to 6-0.

However, it’s a fresh week, so let’s find some more winners.

On Sunday, I’m targeting a running back in Carolina with a great matchup, a receiver in Pittsburgh on the verge of a breakout, and a rookie in Arizona with a sky-high ceiling.

(Keep in mind that lines move throughout the week, sometimes drastically, so if you need help on whether numbers are still playable, hit me up on X at @wayne_sports_).

Best bets: Week 4 NFL player props

Chuba Hubbard (Panthers vs. Bengals) over 58.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)

Hubbard finished with an impressive 21 carries for 114 yards last week against the Raiders and benefitted from an ideal script for the run game.

I don’t foresee that game script again on Sunday against Cincinnati, but this is another matchup he can exploit.

The Bengals rank 26th in defensive line yards and 31st in defensive EPA against the run. They could also be without three starting defensive linemen — Trey Hendrickson, B.J. Hill and Sheldon Rankins.

According to Fantasy Points Data, Hubbard ranks fourth among 35 qualified running backs with 3.32 yards after contact per attempt.

He also leads all running backs in percentage of carries to gain over 5 yards this season.

Dave Canales has repeatedly emphasized wanting to establish the run on early downs, and this is an excellent spot for Hubbard to produce.

George Pickens (Steelers at Colts) 50+ receiving yards (-130, DraftKings)

It’s been a relatively quiet start to the season for Pickens, but his underlying metrics are elite.

He has a 25% target share and ranks 12th in deep targets. He also ranks third in the NFL with a 49.9% air-yard share.

I this is the week we see a true breakout game for Pickens against Indianapolis, who have struggled in pass defense.

The Colts rank 21st against the pass by DVOA and 26th against WR1s.

They have allowed Nico Collins, Romeo Doubs, Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore to average 92 yards over the first three games.

They run Cover 3 at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, and Pickens is averaging 3.7 yards per route run against that coverage, which ranks 13th out of 102 qualified wide receivers, according to FPD.

The Steelers are dealing with injuries to Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren and Cordarelle Patterson, and with their entire backfield banged up, they may be forced to open up the passing game more this week.

Justin Fields ranks second in the NFL with an 82.9% adjusted completion rate, and I trust him to get Pickens the ball in this dream matchup.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals vs. Commanders) over 68.5 receiving yards (-125, DraftKings)

It’s becoming a system play for me to bet on WR1s against the Commanders, who rank last in pass defense DVOA, EPA and success rate.

Ja’Marr Chase finished with six catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns against them in Week 3.

Malik Nabers had 10 catches for 127 yards and a score in Week 2.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin combined for 13 catches for 144 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1.

Harrison ranks ninth in the NFL with a 45.9% air-yard share, and his 19.8 yards per reception leads all receivers with 10-plus catches.

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Betting on the NFL?

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Tight end Trey McBride is in concussion protocol, and I expect him to miss this week’s game, giving Harrison even more of a ceiling.

Expect a massive game from Kyler Murray through the air, with his outstanding rookie wideout on the receiving end.

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.