Underdog status for Bill Belichick

Our NFL betting expert brings you his best Browns vs. Patriots predictions and picks for their NFL Week 6 showdown, which is live Sunday on CBS at 1 p.m. ET.

After losing three of their last four games, the Cleveland Browns desperately need a win to get back on track. But they’ll be facing an uphill battle this week when the New England Patriots come to town fresh off a 29-point triumph.

Patriots vs. Browns predictions

Patriots vs. Browns picks and analysis

For Bill Belichick, Cleveland was once home. It’s where he got his first head coaching job way back in 1991, however, quite a bit has changed over the past 31 years.

He’s guided New England to glory, while the Browns have spent the majority of the past three decades in the cellar of their division. With a lethal backfield duo and some defensive star power, hope is slowly starting to trickle back into Cleveland, though, and a win on Sunday against the franchise’s former coach can only strengthen spirits.

Patriots +2.5

If there’s one thing Belichick has learned in all his years of coaching, it’s how to limit the strongest facet of an opposing team’s offense.

The rushing attack is the most potent element of the Browns’ unit, so expect Belichick and the Patriots’ defense to make life as uncomfortable as possible for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. That’ll force Cleveland to put more responsibility in quarterback Jacoby Brissett’s hands, and it’s hard to imagine he’s up for that challenge.

New England is familiar with Brissett considering it drafted him back in 2019, and while he’s been serviceable, he hasn’t necessarily been the driving force in either of the Browns’ two wins this season.

Cleveland is also 2-6 against the spread in its last eight home games, so the Patriots should be in prime position to keep it close — or even win outright — come Sunday.

Our Pick: Patriots to cover +2.5 @ -115 with Caesars Sportsbook

Under 43.5 total points

When the Patriots hit the road, you can almost guarantee they double-check their luggage to make sure they’ve packed phone chargers, toothbrushes and maybe a crossword or two to pass the time. But they always seem to forget one thing.

Points.

The total has failed to go over in 11 of New England’s last 16 road games. When the Patriots venture out of Massachusetts to play a team that’s below .500, the under becomes even more appealing, as it’s gone 14-2 in New England’s last 16 games away from home against opponents with losing records.

Considering the Browns are 2-3, stick with the trends here. Even if the Patriots did remember to pack the points, there’s no way they made it through airport security with them in their carry-ons.

Our Pick: Under 43.5 total points @ -110 with Caesars Sportsbook

Betting on the NFL?

Amari Cooper anytime touchdown scorer +220

When Cleveland isn’t running the ball, chances are it’s looking to get the ball to Cooper through the air.

Cooper has received 43 of the team’s 155 targets this season (27.8 percent), including six in the red zone. Of those six looks, he’s caught three of them for touchdowns and is now set to face a New England defense that allows opponents to find the end zone 56.3 percent of the time they get inside the 20.

Assuming the Patriots make their primary focus containing Chubb and Hunt in the backfield, Cooper undoubtedly becomes the No. 1 option in the offense.

He’s been on the field for over 83 percent of the Browns’ plays this season, so get ready for him to carry an extended role on Sunday if Cleveland wants to have any chance of staying in the game.

Our Pick: Amari Cooper to score a touchdown at +220 with Caesars Sportsbook

Patriots vs. Browns odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total Points 43.5
Patriots	(+2.5) -115	+118	Over -110
Browns	(-2.5) -105	-140	Under -110