UConn vs. Arkansas prediction, odds

After two rounds defined by shocking upsets, three of the four favorites in Thursday’s opening night of the Sweet 16 are vulnerable to a late scare or even an outright upset. 

Connecticut is not one of them. 

The Huskies have been one of the most dominant teams in this tournament, beating Iona and Saint Mary’s by a combined 39 points ahead of Thursday’s matchup with Arkansas.

That’s nothing new for Danny Hurley’s group, which ranks fifth in average scoring margin (+13.8) despite facing one of the toughest schedules in the country. 

That hasn’t been a deterrent for this team, especially over the last month.

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UConn vs. Arkansas pick

(7:15 p.m. ET., CBS)

UConn ranks No. 1 in T-Rank across its current 8-1 run thanks to its elite offensive rebound rate (41.6 percent) and two-way dominance inside.

It’s one of just three teams (Houston, Texas) to rank in the top 15 across the entire season in offensive efficiency (third) and defensive efficiency (14th), per KenPom. 

Arkansas deserves credit for outworking Kansas on the boards on Saturday, grabbing 14 offensive rebounds — tied for its third-most all year — to pull off the second-round stunner.

But the Razorbacks will be hard-pressed to exert their size advantage against the Huskies and superstar center Adama Sanogo (6-foot-9, 245 pounds), who is playing like the single-most dominant force in college basketball. 

Since 2021, the Huskies are a perfect 19-0 when Sanogo scores at least 20 points, as he’s done in each of the last two rounds.

If the Hogs can’t slow him down on Thursday, this one won’t be close. 

UConn vs. Arkansas prediction

UConn -4.5 (FanDuel)