Russian president to embark on state visit on Tuesday and Wednesday, the Kremlin says.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit North Korea this week for the first time in 24 years, the two countries say, a rare trip that underscores Moscow’s burgeoning partnership with the nuclear-armed state.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un extended an invitation to Putin when Kim visited Russia’s Far East in September.
“At the invitation of the Chairman of State Affairs of the DPRK, Kim Jong Un, Vladimir Putin will pay a friendly state visit to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea on June 18-19,” the Kremlin said on Monday.
North Korea’s state news agency, KCNA, also announced the visit but offered no further details.
Putin last visited Pyongyang in July 2000, four months after he was first elected president. He met with Kim’s father, Kim Jong Il, who ruled the country then.
Moscow has said it “highly appreciates” Pyongyang’s support for Russia’s military action in Ukraine and mentioned its “close and fruitful cooperation” at the United Nations and other international organisations.
There are growing concerns about an arms arrangement in which Pyongyang provides Moscow with badly needed munitions to fuel Putin’s war in Ukraine in exchange for economic assistance and technology transfers that would enhance the threat posed by Kim’s nuclear weapons and missile programmes.
During a telephone call with South Korea’s vice foreign minister on Friday, United States Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell raised concerns that Putin’s visit to North Korea would result in further military cooperation between the two countries that would potentially undermine stability in the region, Seoul’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.
Military, economic and other cooperation between North Korea and Russia have sharply increased ever since Kim’s visit to the Russian Far East for a meeting with Putin, their first since 2019.
Any weapons trade with North Korea would be a violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions that Russia, a permanent council member, previously endorsed.
Andrei Lankov, an expert on North Korea at Kookmin University in Seoul, told The Associated Press news agency that in exchange for providing artillery munitions and short-range ballistic missiles, Pyongyang hopes to get higher-end weapons from Moscow.
Lankov added that while Russia could be reluctant to share its state-of-the-art military technologies with North Korea, it would be eager to receive munitions from Pyongyang.
“There is never enough ammunition in a war. There is a great demand for them,” he said.
In recent months, Russia has been going out of its way to publicise the renaissance of its relationship with North Korea since the start of the war in Ukraine, causing alarm among the US and its allies in Europe and Asia.
For Putin, who has said Russia is locked in an existential battle with the West over Ukraine, courting Kim allows him to needle Washington and its Asian allies.
Besides North Korea, Putin will also visit Vietnam on Wednesday and Thursday.
Cherokee, North Carolina – In a converted bingo hall deep in the Appalachian Mountains, Myrtle Driver led the charge to defy the state of North Carolina.
The spry 80-year-old, a venerated member of the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians, handed a cashier a string of purple wampum beads, a traditional Indigenous currency. In return, she received packets of marijuana pre-rolls and edibles.
With that, Driver made the first purchase at the Great Smoky Cannabis Company superstore, the only seed-to-sale Indigenous weed operation in a part of the United States where marijuana is illegal.
Members of the tribe cheered and wiped away tears. Then, the store’s doors opened to the 800 customers lined up outside in the rain, each with a card certifying they were approved to buy medical marijuana.
They were Indigenous, Black and white. They were Republicans and Democrats. Some were even on crutches. One construction worker drove nine hours from Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, just to show support.
All were seeking regulated legal weed, even if it was only legal on the tribe’s 57,000-acre territory, known as the Qualla Boundary.
By defying North Carolina authorities, the band says it is exercising its right to set its own rules, as it did before white men came to this land.
“We’re not asking permission from the state; we’re telling them,” explained Forrest Parker, the general manager of Qualla Enterprises LLC, the tribal-run cannabis outfit that oversees the business.
The Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians is one of 574 federally recognised tribes in the US, each with inherent sovereignty: In other words, they have the right to self-govern.
To the US government, that means tribal land falls under federal jurisdiction — but not state authority.
The cannabis superstore, however, has rankled some Republican legislators in North Carolina, who have been pushing the federal government to intercede on their behalf. That raises questions about the limits of tribal sovereignty — and whose authority should prevail on Indigenous land.
“It’s unique — a real sovereign flex,” John Oceguera, a cannabis lobbyist and former Nevada legislator from the Walker River Paiute tribe, said of the superstore as he watched from the sidelines as customers filed in.
China’s probe into EU pork comes in retaliation to the bloc’s decision last week to add additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
China has opened an investigation into pork imports from the European Union after the bloc imposed anti-subsidy duties on Chinese-made electric cars.
China’s commerce ministry announced the investigation on Monday, saying it will focus on pork for human consumption, such as fresh, cold, and frozen whole cuts, as well as pig intestines, bladders, and stomachs.
“The Ministry of Commerce has opened an anti-dumping investigation into imports of relevant pork and pig by-products originating from the European Union,” the ministry said in a statement.
Pork is China’s most popular meat and a staple of diets across the country.
Beijing’s customs data show that imports of pork and pork byproducts from EU countries totalled over $3bn last year.
A staff member stocks a freezer where pork and other meat products are displayed, at a supermarket in Beijing, China on June 13, 2024 [File: Florence Lo/Reuters]
The probe into EU pork imports comes after the bloc’s decision last week to add additional tariffs, up to 38.1 percent, on Chinese electric car imports from next month after an anti-subsidy probe.
The European Commission pointed to “unfair subsidisation” in China, which it said “is causing a threat of economic injury” to EU electric car makers.
It proposed provisional hikes on tariffs on Chinese manufacturers of 17.4 percent for market major BYD, 20 percent for Geely and 38.1 percent for SAIC.
The state-backed Global Times newspaper first reported last month that Chinese firms planned to ask authorities to open an anti-dumping investigation into some European pork products, citing an unidentified “business insider”.
Chinese authorities have previously hinted at possible retaliatory measures through state media commentaries and interviews with industry.
A spokesperson for the European Commission said the bloc was not worried about China’s investigation and “will follow the proceedings very closely in coordination with EU industry and our member states”.
“We will intervene as appropriate to ensure that the investigation fully complies with all relevant World Trade Organization rules,” spokesperson Olof Gill said.
Spain’s Agriculture Minister Luis Planas said that he hoped there would be “room for understanding” regarding the decision.
“I’ve said it time and again: trade wars are not good, especially in the agrifood sector, because in the end, they affect the purchasing capacity of citizens and their ability to choose,” Planas said.
Spain is the EU’s largest exporter of pork products to China, selling 560,488 tonnes to the world’s second-largest economy last year, at a total value of 1.2bn euros ($1.29bn), according to the industry body Interporc.
The Netherlands and Denmark ranked second and third in exporting pork products to China last year, worth $620m and $550m, respectively.
If convicted, Nikhil Gupta faces up to 20 years in prison.
The Czech Republic has extradited an Indian man to the United States who is suspected of involvement in an unsuccessful plot to kill a Sikh separatist.
Czech Justice Minister Pavel Blazek announced on Monday that Nikhil Gupta was delivered into US custody last week. Washington has alleged the suspect was part of a plot directed by the Indian government.
Gupta is accused by US federal prosecutors of plotting with intelligence and security officials to kill Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a US and Canadian citizen who advocated for a sovereign Sikh state in northern India.
Czech authorities arrested the 52-year-old Gupta after he travelled to Prague from India in June last year. Last month, a Czech court rejected his petition to avoid being sent to the US, clearing the way for the Czech justice minister to extradite him.
Blazek noted on X that he gave the green light two weeks ago.
Na základě mého rozhodnutí z 3.6.2024 byl v pátek 14.6.2024 vydán k trestnímu stíhání do USA indický občan Nikhil Gupta, který je podezřelý ze spáchání trestného činu spiknutí za účelem spáchání nájemné vraždy s úmyslem způsobit smrt. Díky všem složkám, které se na realizaci…
Translation: On the basis of my decision on [June 3], the Indian citizen Nikhil Gupta, who is suspected of conspiracy to commit murder for hire with intent to cause death, was extradited to the US on Friday for criminal prosecution.
Gupta’s Czech attorney, Petr Slepicka, previously told The Associated Press that he was planning to file a constitutional complaint to the country’s highest legal authority to ask the minister not to allow the extradition. “It’s a political case,” he said.
In November, US prosecutors announced a plot to kill Pannun had been thwarted after a sting operation led by the US Drug Enforcement Administration.
Gupta was arrested in Prague under an extradition treaty between the US and the Czech Republic. He denied any involvement in the case.
If convicted, he could face up to 20 years in prison.
Shaky diplomatic ties
New Delhi has long complained about Sikh separatist groups outside India, viewing them as security threats. The groups have kept alive the movement for Khalistan, an independent Sikh state to be carved out of India.
But alleged plots targeting them have tested US and Canadian relations with India despite the country being viewed by the West as a counter to China’s rising global influence.
Canada said in September that its intelligence agencies were pursuing allegations linking India’s government to the killing of another Sikh separatist leader, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in June 2023. India has rejected the accusation as absurd.
India’s government has also sought to dissociate itself from the plot against Pannun, saying such a tatic was against government policy. It said it will formally investigate security concerns raised by Washington.
The US Commission on International Religious Freedom connected the alleged assassination attempt on Pannun as part of a broader pattern of violence against religious minorities in India.
But last month, Washington said it was satisfied so far with India’s moves to ensure accountability in the alleged plots while adding that many steps still needed to be taken.
The law includes legally binding targets and obligations for not only preserving, but restoring natural habitats.
The European Union countries have defeated opposition to greenlight a landmark nature restoration law that commits member states to revitalise at least a fifth of the bloc’s land and sea by 2030.
Twenty of the 27 members of the European Council voted in favour of the legislation on Monday, giving it the two-thirds majority required to pass. The passage of the environmental regulations came despite stiff opposition from several states.
Belgium abstained from the vote. The environment ministers of Finland, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden voted against the law at a meeting in Luxembourg on Monday.
The law, slated to become among the EU’s biggest environmental policies, was passed after Austria’s environment minister, Leonore Gewessler of the Greens party, voted in favour in an unexpected twist after Vienna had suggested it was opposed.
A few #ENVI ministers came to show their support for the Nature Restoration Law before today’s Council meeting 📸👇
The about-face infuriated Gewessler’s conservative coalition partners, including Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s Austrian People’s Party.
After the law was adopted, Gewessler said she voted for it because “courageous decisions are needed” when future generations are at stake.
“Today we send a signal: Our nature has earned our protection!” she wrote on X.
However, Nehammer said his government would file a complaint at the European court against an “unlawful” vote.
Belgium, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency, said the dispute would not affect the legality of the vote.
“It is our duty to respond to the urgency of the collapse of biodiversity in Europe, but also to enable the European Union to meet its international commitments. The European delegation will be able to go to the next COP with its head held high,” said Alain Maron, climate minister of the government of the Brussels-Capital Region.
The regulation passed on Monday includes legally binding targets and obligations for nature restoration in a variety of ecosystems from terrestrial to marine.
“The regulation aims to mitigate climate change and the effects of natural disasters. It will help the EU to fulfil its international environmental commitments, and to restore European nature,” the European Council said in a statement.
It said the regulation lists commitments for member states to take measures to restore habitats when they are deemed in poor condition, with at least 90 percent of those habitats obliged to be restored by 2050.
More than 80 percent of European habitats are considered to be in poor condition.
Yesss, we finally have a Nature Restoration Law: 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
The EU must now take action to #RestoreNature – key to fight climate change and to achieve the EU Green Deal.
It also includes efforts to prevent significant deterioration of areas and protect declining insect pollinators in Europe, along with ecosystem-specific measures like a commitment to plant at least three billion additional trees by 2030 at the EU level.
Member states must submit national restoration plans to the commission, and a review of the implementation of the law and its effects is slated for 2033.
A coalition of non-governmental organisations that was in favour of the law, including the Swiss-based World Wildlife Fund (WWF), called its adoption “a massive victory for Europe’s nature and citizens”.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute says Russia and the US possess ‘almost 90 percent of all nuclear weapons’.
The world’s nine nuclear-armed states have raised their reliance on nuclear weapons, a watchdog has said.
A report released by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on Monday said the states increased their spending on modernising their atomic arsenals by one-third last year. The watchdog pointed to the contribution of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza to the deterioration of international security.
Wilfred Wan, director of SIPRI’s weapons of mass destruction programme, said nuclear weapons have not been seen “playing such a prominent role in international relations since the Cold War”.
The report found that the effects of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are “visible in almost every aspect of the issues connected to armaments, disarmament and international security examined”.
The nine nuclear armed states – the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel – modernised their nuclear arsenals and several “deployed new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2023”, SIPRI found.
The estimated global inventory of 12,121 warheads in January 2024, marked a reduction of 391 compared with the previous year, a year, with about 9,585 in military stockpiles for possible use.
However, about 3,904 of these were deployed were deployed with missiles and aircraft, which is 60 more than in January 2023.
The vast majority of those deployed warheads belong to Russia and the US, although China is believed to have “some warheads on high operational alert” for the first time.
Separately, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) said the combined total spending on nuclear arsenals grew by $10.7bn to $91.4bn in 2023.
The US was responsible for 80 percent of the rise in spending. Its budget of $51.5bn was higher than that of the other eight nuclear-armed countries combined.
The next biggest spender was China at $11.8bn, ICAN said. Russia was third at $8.3bn.
“While the global total of nuclear warheads continues to fall as Cold War-era weapons are gradually dismantled, regrettably, we continue to see year-on-year increases in the number of operational nuclear warheads,” said SIPRI Director Dan Smith.
“This trend seems likely to continue and probably accelerate in the coming years and is extremely concerning.”
The report added that Russia and the US possess “almost 90 percent of all nuclear weapons”. The overall size of their stockpiles has remained “relatively stable in 2023”, it said, although it noted that Russia is estimated to have deployed about 36 more warheads with operational forces than in January 2023.
In its SIPRI Yearbook 2024, the institute said transparency about nuclear forces has declined in both countries due to Russia’s war on Ukraine and debates around nuclear-sharing arrangements.
Washington suspended its bilateral strategic stability dialogue with Russia, and last year, Moscow announced it was leaving the New START nuclear treaty.
SIPRI added that while there were claims that Russia deployed nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory, there was “no conclusive visual evidence that the actual deployment of warheads has taken place”.
The institute stressed that all of its estimates were approximate, and it revises its world nuclear forces data each year based on new information and updates to earlier assessments.
Evan Gershkovich was detained in March 2023 for allegedly ‘spying’ on a Russian defence enterprise in Yekaterinburg.
Russia will hold a closed-door trial for detained US reporter Evan Gershkovich later this month, a court in the city of Yekaterinburg has announced.
The Sverdlovsk Regional Court said on Monday that the first hearing, scheduled for June 26, will occur “behind closed doors”. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has suggested that it would be open to a prisoner swap.
The court said that the reporter, who was working for The Wall Street Journal when he was arrested in the Siberian city last year, is accused of collecting “secret information” in March 2023 “on the instructions of the CIA”.
According to the charges, which carry a potential sentence of up to 20 years in prison, the journalist was spying on the production and repair of military equipment at the defence enterprise JSC NPK Uralvagonzavod when he was detained by the Federal Security Service (FSB).
‘Outrageous’
Following last week’s announcement that Gershkovich would stand trial for his “CIA work”, The Wall Street Journal said the reporter was facing “a false and baseless charge” based on “calculated and transparent lies”.
“Russia’s latest move toward a sham trial is, while expected, deeply disappointing and still no less outrageous,” read a letter co-signed by publisher Almar Latour and editor-in-chief Emma Tucker.
“Evan has spent 441 days wrongfully detained in a Russian prison for simply doing his job. Evan is a journalist. The Russian regime’s smearing of Evan is repugnant, disgusting and based on calculated and transparent lies.”
Latour and Tucker said they expected the US government to increase efforts to secure his release.
Gershkovich has also appealed his detention several times, but his attempts have been fruitless.
The Independent Association of Publishers’ Employees and Wall Street Journal journalists rally in Washington, DC, on April 12, 2023 [Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP]
The arrest of the first American journalist to be detained on spy charges in Russia since the Cold War shocked Western news organisations, leaving almost no US reporters in Russia.
The White House has called the charges “ridiculous”, with President Joe Biden adding that the detention was “totally illegal”.
Russia said the reporter was caught “red-handed”.
Prisoner swap
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said there has been contact with Washington about a potential prisoner swap for the reporter but insisted that those meetings should be held away from the media.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined on Monday to comment on why Gershkovich’s trial was to be closed, saying it was a court decision.
Russia conducts some of its most secret weapons production and research at the Uralvagonzavod enterprise based in Nizhny Tagil, on which Gershkovich is accused of conducting espionage.
The enterprise – part of Rostec, Russia’s vast defence corporation run by Putin-ally Sergei Chemezov which is under US sanctions – has publicly spoken about producing T-90M battle tanks and modernising T-72B3M tanks.
The Pakistan captain apologises for his team’s World Cup performance after they were knocked out at the group stage.
Pakistan captain Babar Azam has said the team’s batting let them down at the Twenty20 World Cup as he apologised to fans for failing to reach the Super Eight stage.
Pakistan fell to the tournament’s biggest upset when the USA, a tier-two member of the game, beat the 2009 champions via Super Over. The defeat by archrivals India then left Babar’s side with a mountain to climb to advance.
India and USA bagged the two Super Eight slots from Group A while Pakistan finished third after Sunday’s laboured three-wicket victory against Ireland.
“Thank you so much for supporting us, and sorry for that performance,” Babar said after the match in Florida.
“I know the fans and the team are saddened by this. It is not any one player’s fault. We all made a mistake.”
Babar had stepped down as captain of all three formats after Pakistan failed to make the knockout stage of the 50-over World Cup in India last year, but was reinstated as white-ball skipper ahead of the 20-overs showpiece in the US and the West Indies.
Amid subpar performances at the tournament, talk of rifts within the camp surfaced, while Pakistan Cricket Board’s chief promised “major surgery” on the team after their exit was confirmed last week.
Pakistan’s batting was a huge disappointment as they failed to make the most of the powerplay overs and could not get partnerships established.
“The pitches here helped the fast bowlers a little but I think overall our batting did not click,” said Babar.
“We lost two crucial matches even when we were in charge.”
All-rounder Imad Wasim has said the team needed a complete reset of their approach to white-ball cricket and Babar agreed.
“Every player has to think because cricket has become very fast. With modern cricket, you must have game awareness,” he said.
“You know that the strike rate here is [low] … I think it’s about game awareness and common sense.”
Islamabad, Pakistan – As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was sworn in for a third time as his country’s leader on June 9, seven counterparts from neighbouring nations joined a very select audience in marking the moment.
The setting — a summer evening, with an orangish dusk sky, and handpicked leaders from the region in attendance — carried echoes of Modi’s first oath-taking ceremony as India’s premier in 2014, which was repeated in 2019.
But there was one big difference from 2014: Missing from the lineup of visiting leaders was the prime minister of Pakistan.
A decade ago, images of Pakistan’s then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif clasping Modi’s hands during his visit to attend the swearing-in event signalled a fresh hope for long-tortured India-Pakistan relations — hope that subsequent setbacks to ties have all but extinguished. Now, as Modi begins his third term in office, with a sharply reduced mandate that has left him dependent on coalition allies to stay in power, analysts expect the Indian leader to pursue a tough posture towards Pakistan, with little incentive to seek any easing in tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbours.
“Modi will reach out to regional neighbours, all of whom were invited to his swearing-in. But not Pakistan,” said Maleeha Lodhi, former Pakistani ambassador to the United Nations, United States and the United Kingdom. “His government is likely to continue its hard line towards Pakistan with which he has shown no interest to engage for the past five years. This is unlikely to change.”
And early signs appear to vindicate Lodhi’s assessment.
A message and an attack
On the very day that Modi took oath, at least nine people were killed and more than 30 injured when a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims in the Reasi district of Indian-administered Kashmir fell in a gorge after it was targeted by gunmen.
This was followed by three more incidents within a week in different areas of Indian-administered Kashmir in which security forces engaged with attackers, killing three while seven security personnel were injured.
Indian security agencies have blamed Pakistani involvement. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Mumtaz Zahra Baloch rejected the allegations on Thursday, and accused Indian authorities of a “habit of making such irresponsible statements”.
“No one takes these allegations seriously,” Baloch said.
Still, a day after the attack in Reasi, former Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif tried to rekindle his past bonhomie with Modi.
“My warm felicitations to Modi Ji (@narendramodi) on assuming office for the third time. Your party’s success in recent elections reflects the confidence of the people in your leadership. Let us replace hate with hope and seize the opportunity to shape the destiny of the two billion people of South Asia,” the three-time prime minister, and currently a member of the Pakistani parliament, wrote on June 10.
The Indian premier, too, responded in kind, acknowledging the message by his former counterpart.
“Appreciate your message @NawazSharifMNS. The people of India have always stood for peace, security and progressive ideas. Advancing the well-being and security of our people shall always remain our priority,” he wrote on X.
Appreciate your message @NawazSharifMNS. The people of India have always stood for peace, security and progressive ideas. Advancing the well-being and security of our people shall always remain our priority. https://t.co/PKK47YKAog
By contrast, the congratulatory message from Pakistan’s current prime minister, Nawaz’s younger brother Shehbaz Sharif, was far more restrained.
“Felicitations to @narendramodi on taking oath as the Prime Minister of India,” Sharif wrote from his account.
Security concerns
After the attack in Reasi on June 9, India’s Home Minister Amit Shah — widely seen as Modi’s deputy — pledged that those behind the attack would not be spared.
India has long viewed Pakistan primarily through the prism of its security concerns. India accuses its neighbour of fomenting trouble in Indian-administered Kashmir, as well as of masterminding numerous violent attacks on Indian territory, charges which Islamabad has denied.
Ajay Darshan Behera, a scholar of international studies at the Jamia Millia Islamia University in New Delhi, says that India’s policy towards Pakistan hinges on the issue of “terrorism”.
“The previous Modi regime aimed to raise the costs for Pakistan for supporting terrorism. If there is no major terrorist attack in Kashmir, this Modi regime will likely maintain a policy of indifference towards Pakistan. It is doubtful that Prime Minister Modi will unilaterally initiate any re-engagement with Pakistan,” he told Al Jazeera.
Shaping that approach is the spectre of violence that has always hovered over the relationship when the two sides have attempted peace overtures.
Nawaz Sharif was Pakistan’s prime minister when he travelled to India in 2014 to attend Modi’s first oath-taking ceremony [Harish Tyagi/EPA]
In late 2015, Modi paid a daylong surprise visit to Pakistan to attend the wedding of then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s granddaughter near Lahore.
The visit resulted in hopes that the two countries might be forging a path of reconciliation but merely a week later, a group of attackers entered an Indian Air Force base, killing at least eight Indians, including security personnel. India blamed Pakistan for the incident and demanded that it arrest the perpetrators of the attack.
India’s hardened stance towards Pakistan since then, said Lodhi, the former ambassador, had reaped “rich electoral dividends” for Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — especially during the 2019 Indian elections.
“Their Pakistan-bashing makes chances of any India-Pakistan thaw very slim,” she added.
Salman Bashir, another senior diplomat and a former Pakistani high commissioner to India, said that India’s current position on Pakistan — effectively, a refusal to talk until its security concerns are addressed — is a relatively cost-free option for Modi, though he added that it might be premature to speculate on the Indian premier’s next steps.
“There are no compulsions for Modi to try to mend relations with Pakistan. India stands to gain by continuing its adversarial policy towards Pakistan,” Bashir told Al Jazeera.
2019 turning point
When Modi won the second term in the 2019 elections, the election campaign was marked by anti-Pakistan jingoism fuelled by a sharp escalation in tensions that left the neighbours on the verge of war.
Months before the elections, an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir saw more than 40 Indian soldiers killed. The Indian government blamed Pakistan for orchestrating the attack and launched a strike inside Pakistani territory, saying it targeted fighters’ training camps.
Pakistan responded by sending its fighter jets into Indian airspace the next day and in the ensuing chase, an Indian Air Force jet was shot down and the pilot captured. The tense standoff only calmed down after Pakistan returned the pilot, Abhinandan Varthaman, two days after his arrest.
Riding the anti-Pakistan wave, as well as his own popularity, Modi’s BJP managed to win more than 300 seats and returned to power.
Five years later, things appear to have changed, at least domestically for Modi.
For long stretches of the seven-phase election campaigning, Pakistan’s mention as an electoral theme was almost negligible, and the country only became a talking point during the later stages.
Defying exit polls that had projected a landslide majority for the BJP and its allies, Modi’s party fell short of the halfway mark (272 seats) in parliament, winning 242 seats. It is the first time in a quarter century as a chief executive — first in charge of the state of Gujarat and then, since 2014, of India — that Modi has had to depend on allies to keep his government in place.
Irfan Nooruddin, a professor of Indian politics at Georgetown University in Washington, said that the “relatively poor performance” of the BJP in the 2024 general election might mean that the immediate focus of the Indian government is more “inward-looking” as the “party introspects on its losses and tries to avoid a repeat in the state elections”. Several key states are expected to vote for their legislatures in the next few months, including Maharashtra, India’s second-largest state.
“I doubt we’ll see any significant foreign policy announcements other than those that allow PM Modi to showcase his close personal partnership with Western leaders,” Nooruddin told Al Jazeera.
“Foreign policy tends not to be an electoral issue and the coalition partners on whom PM Modi’s government relies do not have strong foreign policy preferences,” Nooruddin added.
Diplomatic deadlock
Meanwhile, Sharat Sabharwal, a former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan, said he does not foresee any major change in the foreign policy of the new Modi government compared to the previous one.
“I think India would respond positively to improve relations with Pakistan provided it sees a constructive and pragmatic approach from the Pakistani side,” he told Al Jazeera.
The former diplomat said that while it is a given that better relations will help benefit both countries, he added that holding an antagonistic stance exacts more of a cost on Pakistan.
“Pakistan’s adversarial posture towards India, a country with an economy 10 times bigger, imposes a heavy burden on its economy. Suspension of trade with India also hurts Pakistan’s economy much more than the Indian economy,” he added.
Leaders of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, attending a leaders summit in Japan in 2022 [Zhang Xiaoyu/EPA]
India, with a population of more than 1.4 billion people, is the world’s fifth-largest economy.
It is becoming an increasingly assertive voice on the global front, hosting G20 summits, and joining various multilateral forums like the Quad. Modi’s first overseas trip after taking oath was to attend the G7 leadership meeting in Italy.
Meanwhile, Pakistan, a country with 241 million people, is seeking its 24th loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) since 1958, to shore up its faltering economy amid a volatile political and security landscape.
“Both India and Pakistan’s economies would benefit from a more rational relationship, and given India’s relative economic strength vis-a-vis Pakistan, one could even argue that India would gain more,” Nooruddin said. “So, I do think it’s in India’s long-term interest to make its Pakistan posture less adversarial.”
Behera of Jamila Millia University said that improved bilateral ties could prove beneficial to traders and farmers on both sides who have lost business opportunities due to the stalemate.
“However, neither country can take the initiative to improve ties, as both have conditions for re-engagement. India demands a commitment from Pakistan to stop supporting terrorist groups, while Pakistan seeks the restoration of Article 370,” he added, referring to India’s 2019 decision to scrap the special status of Indian-administered Kashmir that gave it some autonomy.
Nooruddin said that both sides needed to do more to restore ties to a semblance of normalcy — but that New Delhi ought to take more responsibility.
“I’d argue it’s a shared onus. But India, which wishes to be seen as a global player and as the regional hegemon, should act first so that it can fulfil its global ambitions,” he said.
Courts due to hear cases on Tuesday on PM Srettha Thavisin, the Move Forward Party, former PM Thaksin Shinawatra and the Senate elections.
The future of Thailand’s Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin as well as its leading opposition party looks set to be decided this week in four key court rulings that risk triggering a new political crisis.
The courts are due to announce rulings in four cases on Tuesday involving Srettha, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the leading opposition Move Forward Party (MFP), and the election process for a new Senate.
Thailand’s politics has been marred for years by a struggle between its military-backed conservative-royalist establishment, and populist and reform parties such as those backed by Thaksin and MFP, leading to mass protests and military coups.
“These cases highlight the fragility and complexity of Thailand’s political climate,” ANZ Research said in a note, warning of the potential for renewed protests.
What is the prime minister’s case?
Srettha, who made a fortune in property before getting into politics, became prime minister last August after Pita Limjaroenrat, who led MFP to victory in the May 2023 elections, was blocked from forming a government.
On Tuesday, he faces a decision – or potentially another hearing date – from the Constitutional Court on whether he breached the constitution by appointing someone to his cabinet who had a previous conviction.
Srettha, who denies any wrongdoing, could face dismissal if the court rules against him.
If he is removed, his Pheu Thai Party would need to propose a new candidate for prime minister and parliament would need to vote on their appointment.
What is the case against MFP?
A second case could lead to the dissolution of the reformist Move Forward Party, which won the most seats in last year’s election as well as the largest share of the vote.
The Constitutional Court is due to announce its decision on an Election Commission complaint that alleges the party broke the law by campaigning for reform of the royal insult law.
MFP denies any wrongdoing.
The property dropped its calls for reform after the Constitutional Court ruled in January that the call amounted to an effort to overthrow the monarchy.
Its predecessor, the Future Forward Party, was also dissolved by a court ruling after performing strongly in the 2019 election.
What about Thaksin?
Thaksin, the telecommunications tycoon who dominated Thai politics being removed in a military coup in 2006, returned to Thailand last year after Srettha’s government took office.
On Tuesday, a Bangkok criminal court is likely to formally charge him with royal insult in connection with a media interview he gave in 2015.
The court will then decide whether to grant bail to Thaksin, who has said he is innocent. “This case has no merit at all,” he told reporters earlier this month.
Thailand’s lese-majeste law, one of the world’s toughest, carries a maximum jail sentence of up to 15 years for each perceived insult.
The Constitutional Court will also deliver a decision on the ongoing selection of a new 200-member Senate, after accepting a petition questioning whether parts of the process, taking place over three successive weeks, were lawful.
If the process is cancelled or delayed, it would temporarily extend the term of military-appointed lawmakers who play a key role in forming the government, including last year’s manoeuvre that blocked MFP.
The current upper house was hand-picked by the military following a 2014 coup that removed an elected Pheu Thai government led by Thaksin’s sister, who still lives in self-imposed exile.
The process to pick the next Senate began on June 9 with the third and final stage scheduled for June 23.
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