Increased activity along Taiwan Strait comes ahead of January 13 polls.
Taiwan has reported spotting Chinese warships around the island and aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait’s sensitive median line weeks before elections in the democratically governed nation.
On Saturday, the Ministry of Defence said in a post on X that since 1:30pm (05:30 GMT) it had detected J-10, J-11 and J-16 fighters as well as early warning Chinese aircraft operating in the airspace to the north, middle and southwest of Taiwan.
Ten aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait, or areas close by, working with Chinese warships to carry out “joint combat readiness patrols”, the ministry said, adding that its armed forces have taken steps to respond.
From 1330(UTC+8) today, we have detected PLA aircraft (including J-10, J-11, J-16, Y-8, KJ-500, etc.), 10 of which crossed the median line and entered our North, Central, SW ADIZ. In addition, the aircraft also conducted joint combat patrol with PLAN vessels.
— 國防部 Ministry of National Defense, R.O.C. 🇹🇼 (@MoNDefense) December 23, 2023
The uptick in Chinese military activity in the Taiwan Strait comes just weeks before Taipei heads to the polls.
Earlier this month, the defence ministry also spotted warships and a balloon near the island at night. While Beijing has been sending warplanes and vessels around Taiwan on a near-daily basis, nighttime activity by Chinese aircraft and the appearance of a balloon are rare.
Democratically governed Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, has complained for years of regular Chinese military patrols and drills near the island.
Beijing has not yet commented on the recent military activities near Taiwan. But it has previously described them as aimed at preventing “collusion” between Taiwan separatists and the United States, and protecting China’s territorial integrity.
Tensions before elections
Ahead of presidential and parliamentary polls on January 13, analysts say China is running a multi-pronged campaign to try to keep the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) from re-election.
Beijing wants the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party to win as it seeks friendlier relations with China. Polls, however, show Vice President Lai Ching-te and running mate Hsiao Bi-khim from the DPP in the lead.
China has refused to engage in dialogue with the DPP, which the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) claims is “separatist”. The DPP rejects such accusations and says it is up to the people of Taiwan to choose their leaders and their future.
Beijing has also targeted individuals and public figures in Taiwan through online campaigns and tax probes, seeking to influence how they vote.
Ai-Men Lau, a research analyst at the Taiwan-based organisation, Doublethink Lab, which tracks malign Chinese influence operations and disinformation campaigns as well as their impact, told Al Jazeera that while it can be difficult to trace much of the content directly to China, there are often signs pointing in that direction.
“We are seeing the PRC increasingly using Taiwanese voices such as journalists, local proxies and social media influencers to get their message across,” she added, using the acronym for the People’s Republic of China.
Meanwhile, government authorities in Taiwan have put the region on high alert for Chinese activities, military and political, ahead of the elections.
While campaigning has kicked into high gear, how the next government handles relations with China remains a major point of contention.
As the war enters its 667th day, these are the main developments.
Here is the situation on Friday, December 22, 2023.
Fighting
Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said at least three people were killed and five injured after Russia bombed two coal mines in Toretsk in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Some 32 miners who were underground at the time of the attack were brought safely to the surface, he added. The attack also damaged administrative buildings and equipment.
Regional Governor Serhiy Lysak said two women were killed and an 86-year-old man injured in Russian shelling of the southern Ukrainian city of Nikopol, which lies on the Dnipro river. Russian artillery fire also killed another woman in the village of Tyagynka in the Kherson region, officials said.
Ukraine’s air force said air defences shot down 34 out of 35 Iranian-made Shahed drones launched in a major Russian attack on 12 Ukrainian regions. The drones were launched in several waves during the night. There were no immediate reports of major damage or casualties.
In its regular update from the front, the General Staff of the Ukrainian military said Ukrainian forces repelled at least 30 Russian attacks near Avdiivka and a further 11 around nearby Maryinka – two of the hottest points on the front line in eastern Ukraine – with a further seven outside Bakhmut.
Ukrainian air force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said Russia had launched about 7,400 missiles and 3,700 Shahed attack drones on the country since it began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Ihnat said air defences were able to shoot down 1,600 of the missiles and 2,900 of the drones. Fewer of the missiles were destroyed due to Russia’s use of supersonic ballistic missiles and because Patriot air defence systems from Western allies did not arrive until April this year, he added.
Politics and diplomacy
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said he accepted an invitation from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksyy to hold a bilateral meeting in the future. Orban said Zelenskyy requested discussions on Ukraine’s ambitions to join the European Union. Orban did not give a date for the meeting, which would be their first since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The EU paid the final tranche of a multibillion-euro support package to Ukraine to help keep its war-ravaged economy afloat. The EU has sent 1.5 billion euros ($1.6bn) each month this year to ensure macroeconomic stability and rebuild critical infrastructure destroyed in the war. The money has also helped pay wages and pensions, keep hospitals and schools running, and provide shelter for people forced from their homes. Future financial support is unclear because Hungary is blocking a new $54bn aid plan.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reacted angrily to a German proposal to seize frozen assets worth more than 720 million euros ($790m) from the Frankfurt bank account of a Russian financial institution. Asked about the plan at a press conference in Tunisia, Lavrov lashed out at German leaders as a “thieving lot”.
A Russian court jailed two men, one of them Ukrainian, for financing an alleged ultranationalist group in Ukraine by selling illegal drugs. The two men were given jailed terms of 16 and 17 years after being found guilty of “financing extremist activities”.
Weapons
The chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, said Moscow had established “comprehensive” defence cooperation with North Korea but did not go into detail. The United States and South Korea have said Pyongyang could be sending weapons to Russia for use in the war in Ukraine in exchange for Russian technological know-how. Russia has denied the allegation.
As the war enters its 666th day, these are the main developments.
Here is the situation on Thursday, December 21, 2023.
Fighting
Nine people, including four children, were injured in Russian shelling of the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, as Russia also targeted the capital Kyiv, the second-largest city of Kharkiv and other regions with drones and missiles. Ukraine’s Air Force said air defence systems destroyed 18 out of 19 Russian attack drones and that Russia fired two surface-to-air guided missiles at Kharkiv. No casualties were reported.
Ukrainian military spokesman Oleksandr Shtupun acknowledged that Russian forces were gaining ground around the industrial city of Avdiivka. Sthupun told Ukrainian television the Russians had “advanced by one and a half to two kilometres [0.3 to 1.2 miles] in some places” since October 10, but it had “cost them a lot”.
The evening update from the Ukrainian General Staff reported 89 incidents of Russian ground attacks on seven sections of a front line that extends for about 1,000km (600 miles). There were 31 attacks near Avdiivka, it added.
Ukraine’s Armed Forces are taking up a more defensive posture after a months-long counteroffensive failed to achieve a significant breakthrough, the United Kingdom’s Defence Ministry said in its latest assessment of the war. It said Ukraine was improving field fortifications along the front line.
Politics and diplomacy
The Kremlin said there was no current basis for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and that Kyiv’s proposed peace plan was absurd because it excluded Russia. “We really consider that the topic of negotiations is not relevant right now,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin called for a “severe” response to foreign agents who try to help Ukraine by engaging in sabotage in Russia.
Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich lost his attempt at the European Union’s top court to overturn the sanctions the EU imposed on him after Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
German federal prosecutors said they aim to seize more than 720 million euros ($789 million) from an unnamed Russian bank it suspects of trying to violate Western sanctions.
Ukraine’s biggest mobile operator Kyivstar said it had fully restored its services in the country and overseas following a huge cyberattack last damaged IT infrastructure and affected air raid alert systems. More than half of Ukraine’s population are Kyivstar subscribers.
A Russian court fined Google 4.6 billion roubles ($50.84m) for failing to delete so-called “fake” information about the war in Ukraine and other topics, according to the state TASS news agency.
Yekaterina Duntsova, a 40-year-old independent politician, has declared her intention to run in Russia’s 2024 presidential election [Vera Savina/AFP]
Yekaterina Duntsova, a 40-year-old former broadcast journalist, put her name forward to stand in Russia’s presidential election on a platform “for peace and democratic processes”. Duntsova has previously called for an end to the war in Ukraine and the release of political prisoners including opposition leader Alexey Navalny. The 40-year-old needs 300,000 signatures from across Russia by January 31 to support her candidacy. Vladimir Putin is expected to win in a landslide.
Weapons
Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s minister for strategic industries, said Kyiv plans to manufacture 1 million reconnaissance and attack drones as well as more than 11,000 medium- and long-range attack drones next year. The figure includes at least 1,000 drones with a range of more than 1,000km (620 miles), he said.
Japan is considering allowing Patriot missile transfers to Ukraine, according to a report in Nikkei.
As the war enters its 665th day, these are the main developments.
Here is the situation on Wednesday, December 20, 2023.
Fighting
Ukraine’s military said Russia launched its fifth air attack this month on the capital, with air defence systems destroying all weapons on their approach to Kyiv. “According to preliminary information, there were no casualties or destruction in the capital,” Serhiy Popko, the head of Kyiv’s military administration, said on the Telegram messaging app.
Russia’s Defence Ministry said it brought down a Ukrainian drone near the capital that led to restrictions on flights at Moscow’s main airports. No casualties were reported.
Ukraine said its military was holding the line in the eastern Kharkiv region, despite being outgunned by Russian forces trying to take control of the town of Kupiansk. “The situation is complicated. We have to fight in conditions of superiority of the enemy both in weapons and in the number of personnel,” said Oleksandr Syrsky, the head of Ukraine’s ground forces. Russia’s Defence Ministry said it had repelled eight Ukrainian attacks around Kupiansk with artillery.
Firefighters working at an apartment block in the Russian-occupied part of Ukraine’s Donetsk after the building was hit by shelling [AFP]
Politics and diplomacy
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the military had asked for the mobilisation of 500,000 more people in the fight to remove Russian forces from its territory and urged the United States and Kyiv’s other Western allies to maintain their support for his country. He said he also hoped prisoner swaps, which he said had been delayed as a result of unspecified “reasons” on the Russian side, would soon resume. The last exchange took place in early August.
Russian President Vladimir Putin told defence and military chiefs that Moscow had the momentum in its war in Ukraine and was well-positioned to reach its goals, claiming that attempts to defeat it had failed. Putin also said Moscow was upgrading its nuclear arsenal and maintaining the military at its highest level of readiness.
Italy’s cabinet passed a decree allowing it to supply “means, materials and equipment” to Ukraine in its fight against Russia until the end of 2024. Supplies will include not only weapons but also power generators and “everything needed to support military operations in defence of unarmed civilians”, a Defence Ministry statement said.
Volker Turk, the United Nations’s human rights chief, said there were indications Russia had committed war crimes in Ukraine, including 142 cases of “summary executions” of civilians as well we enforced disappearances, torture and ill-treatment such as sexual violence against detainees.
A court in Poland convicted 14 citizens of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine for being part of a spy ring preparing acts of sabotage on behalf of Moscow. They were given jail terms ranging from 13 months to six years.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the media the military was asking for the mobilisation of 500,000 more troops [Efrem Lukatsky/AP Photo]
A former Russian soldier sought asylum in the Netherlands and said he wanted to testify at the International Criminal Court (ICC) about Russian war crimes he witnessed while fighting in Ukraine. A Dutch legal source told the Reuters news agency the man had been a member of Russian-backed separatist forces in eastern Ukraine since 2014 and had also worked as an instructor for the Wagner mercenary group there.
Chuck Schumer, the majority leader in the US Senate, said the upper house aimed to pass an agreement to provide additional aid to Ukraine and bolster US border security as soon as it returns to Washington, DC in January after the Christmas and New Year holidays.
Weapons
Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister, said that since the country began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it had increased production of tanks by 5.6 times, drones by 16.8 times and artillery shells by 17.5 times. Speaking during Putin’s meeting with military chiefs, Shoigu said Russian forces had also laid 7,000sq km (2,703 square miles) of minefields in Ukraine – some of them as much as 600 metres (1,969 feet) wide – along with 1.5 million anti-tank barriers and 2,000km (1,243 miles) of anti-tank ditches.
Zelenskyy said Ukraine planned to manufacture some 1 million drones next year for use on the battlefield. Ukraine and Russia use drones to scope out enemy positions, drop explosives and launch attacks on the enemy.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu talked optimistically about Moscow’s chances of achieving its goals in Ukraine [Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP]
The US charged Hossein Hatefi Ardakani, an Iranian, and Gary Lam, a Chinese national, with allegedly supplying dual-use US-manufactured microelectronics to Iran’s drone programme. “These very components have been found in use by Iran’s allies in current conflicts, including in Ukraine,” special agent Michael Krol said. Both men remain at large.
The US Treasury Department, meanwhile, announced that it was imposing sanctions on a network of 10 Ardakani-linked entities as well as four individuals based in Iran, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Indonesia, for circumventing export bans to procure US components for Iranian-made attack drones.
Bangkok/Taipei – China has emerged as the dominant foreign power in terms of shaping possible outcomes in Myanmar’s spiralling political crisis as Beijing seeks to exert its influence over several armed groups who have staged the biggest challenge to the generals since they seized power in the February 2021 coup.
Beijing last week pushed the three powerful ethnic armies – the Arakan Army (AA), the Mandarin-speaking Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) – to agree to a truce after fighters working with anti-coup coalitions across Myanmar pushed Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s military out of swathes of the north, overran hundreds of military outposts and seized control of border crossings with China under Operation 1027.
China’s ceasefire announcement followed talks in its southwestern city of Kunming between the State Administration Council (SAC), as Myanmar’s coup leaders call themselves, and the Three Brotherhood Alliance, the coalition of the AA, MNDAA and TNLA, which is driving the 1027 offensive.
“China supports the peace process of northern Myanmar and has provided support and facilitation for dialogue and contact between relevant parties in Myanmar,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said in a statement on December 14, confirming that “a temporary ceasefire” had been reached.
Beijing’s prominent involvement in the truce and its armed support for both ethnic armies and the SAC makes China by far the most influential foreign actor in the turmoil in Myanmar, a strategic location where big powers have long jostled for influence and whose generals are also deepening ties with Russia.
A Karenni Nationalities Defence Force soldier helps civilians evacuate amid the military bombing of Loikaw in November [Reuters]
The SAC Foreign Minister Than Swe was in Beijing at the beginning of December.
“The truce followed the junta foreign minister’s visit to Beijing where he pleaded for China’s assistance, and a flurry of Chinese government interactions with the MNDAA and its allies,” said Jason Tower, Myanmar country director at the United States Institute of Peace.
Patronage networks
The ceasefire also came days after Beijing issued arrest warrants for 10 partners and cronies of Myanmar’s military, including members of the five powerful families who collectively ruled Kokang, bordering China’s Yunnan Province. The most notable target was Bai Suocheng, a key ally of Min Aung Hlaing, an indication of the complex layers of connections and patronage between China, Myanmar’s ethnic minorities in the borderlands and the generals.
“China is really pi**ed off with the regime for the scam centres and related crime. Myanmar became synonymous with scams in China,” a source close to the Chinese government told Al Jazeera.
“The SAC underestimated how enraged Beijing is with the waves of Chinese nationals caught in the border,” the source added.
While Operation 1027 represents the most serious challenge to military rule since Min Aung Hlaing’s coup, it has taken place amid a surge in drug and human trafficking in lawless border areas, which has been felt elsewhere in the region.
Since the coup, and with Myanmar increasingly isolated by international sanctions and excluded by many of its traditional partners in Southeast Asia, the generals have moved closer to Beijing, which has snubbed the National Unity Government (NUG) – a parallel administration established by elected lawmakers, primarily from the National League for Democracy, who were removed in the coup. The NUG established the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs), armed groups made up of civilians opposed to the coup and training and fighting alongside ethnic armed organisations.
All eyes are now on the MNDAA, the de facto leader of the 1027 offensive. It was founded by Peng Jiasheng, the strongman who ruled Kokang before being overthrown by Min Aung Hlaing and Bai Suocheng in 2009 and who died last year.
Tower said the offensive’s apparent breakthrough and the unprecedented level of cooperation across Myanmar’s resistance forces, including fighters from Myanmar’s dominant ethnic Bamar, was likely to make it “extremely problematic” for the group to agree to any kind of pact with the military leadership.
“Ethnic armies in northern Shan State, including the MNDAA, have relied heavily on people’s resistance forces across Shan and central Myanmar’s Mandalay, to achieve this battlefield success,” he said. “As such, any deal with the junta will result in major costs for the MNDAA in terms of its relationships and commitments to its partners.”
Thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting along the border with China [Reuters]
PDFs in Mandalay have taken a direct part in the offensive, holding and cutting off trade routes to deny the SAC the ability to resupply itself and provide logistical support against the MNDAA, which has trained an entire brigade of non-Chinese-speaking troops.
Beijing’s dramatic turn against members of the so-called “four families” – the Bai, Wei and two Liu families – in Kokang came after they were allowed to control the region with China’s blessings for more than a decade. The Ming family rose to prominence more recently.
Pro-China news website HK01 said the families collectively “formed industrial chains of pornography, gambling, drugs, and fraud”.
“Whether the black industries of several major families that have been entrenched in Kokang for many years can be eradicated amidst China’s vigorous crackdown on electronic fraud crimes and the war in northern Myanmar has become a major focus of attention from the outside world,” said HK01, which is owned by a China-linked investment firm.
In recent weeks China has drastically changed its narrative on the Kokang leaders. By December, the five families were being chastised publicly and placed under arrest. Ming Xue-chang, the leader of the Ming family who has been accused of leading a cybercrime syndicate, reportedly died by suicide last month while in detention.
Yangon-based Chinese-language magazine Golden Phoenix, a staunch mouthpiece of China, has echoed the change in narrative, running the headline, “Is the annihilation of the four big families imminent?”
“China is fully capable of vetoing any action taken by the MNDAA. The Tatmadaw knows this,” said a Chinese academic in Yangon who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. The Myanmar military is sometimes known as the Tatmadaw.
“In May this year, then-Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang visited Myanmar. At that time, outside observers thought China had chosen to completely side with SAC. In fact, China was putting pressure on the SAC,” they told Al Jazeera.
Fighters with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) prepare their weapons amid continued fighting with the military in northern Shan State [AFP]
The source in Beijing said that now that the scam centres and criminals were largely dealt with, China’s priority would be border stability and that Beijing had not warmed up to the NUG, despite having previously developed a solid relationship with overthrown civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
Fighting continues
The question is whether Beijing – which provides arms to the ethnic armies – will be able to effectively end the hostilities when resistance forces across Myanmar continue to fight, believing they have the momentum to make further gains.
Days after the ceasefire was signed, the TNLA said it had taken control of the town of Namhsan in northern Shan state as well as the so-called 105-Mile Trade Zone, a key trading area on Shan state’s border with China.
Security expert Anthony Davis pointed out that China’s role in logistical support reaching the ethnic armies, while largely indirect, was significant.
“The most important layer of plausible deniability centres on the role of the United Wa State Army (UWSA), which is entirely equipped with modern weaponry and equipment produced in China and at the same time, operates as an ally of, and quartermaster for, several northern ethnic factions, not least the Brotherhood Alliance,” Davis told Al Jazeera.
The UWSA – a formidable Chinese-speaking micro-state – has been providing support to the MNDAA in the recent offensive, including by hosting refugees fleeing the fighting.
“Given its powerful influence over the UWSA, China could undoubtedly affect a major reduction in munitions reaching northern groups if it wanted to. Clearly, it is not interested in taking steps to do that,” Davis said.
Almost deserted streets in Namhsan. Operation 1027 has seen anti-coup forces led by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, make significant gains against the military [AFP]
The NUG, meanwhile, says it is time for Beijing to recognise the damage being caused by the military and support a path towards democracy.
“The longer the generals stay in power, the greater they pose a serious threat to China because the SAC has repeatedly proven itself to be the source of all crimes in Myanmar,” the NUG’s International Cooperation Minister Dr Sasa told Al Jazeera in an interview.
“It is time for China to embrace the will of Myanmar’s people and support their sole representatives – the NUG – to end these threats and build a federal democracy which will provide peace, stability and prosperity for China, Myanmar and the region.”
Ukrainian president suggests his country could mobilise 500,000 more people in order to fight Russian invasion.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed confidence that the United States and other Western countries will continue to support Ukraine in its battle to repel Russia’s invasion.
Speaking during an end-of-year news conference on Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that financial assistance plays a crucial role in the country’s efforts to drive back Russian forces that poured over the border in February 2022. He also suggested that Ukraine could mobilise 500,000 more people in order to fight on.
“We are working very hard on this, and I am certain the United States of America will not betray us, and that on which we agreed in the United States will be fulfilled completely,” Zelenskyy said.
The address comes as support for Ukraine in Western countries comes under greater pressure, with conservatives in the United States expressing doubts about continued assistance and stalling the passage of a substantial aid package.
Valentina Anatolevna and Tatyana Mikhailovna wait to pick up wood to heat their homes outside a court that was destroyed by an air raid in the front-line town of Lyman, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, on December 14 [Thomas Peter/Reuters]
Leaders in the US Senate said on Tuesday that the package was not likely to move forward before the end of the year.
Zelenskyy, who has previously warned that such delays benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin, said that a Trump victory in the 2024 US elections could have “a very strong impact on the course of the war” if he pursued a policy towards Ukraine that was “more cold or more economical”.
The Ukrainian leader also said that he was sure that the European Union (EU) would move forward with a 50-billion-euro ($55bn) aid package of its own, despite opposition from Hungary, whose right-wing government has raised objections to further assistance for Ukraine.
“I’m confident that we have already achieved all this,” Zelenskyy said. “The question now is one of a certain matter of time.”
However, support for Ukraine has become a divisive issue in Western countries after a long-awaited counteroffensive over the summer failed to win back substantial territory and the war grinds on.
The Russian invasion, which has been accused of including war crimes, has devastated Ukrainian cities, displaced millions of people, and killed at least 10,000 civilians, according to the United Nations.
Zelenskyy said that he is weighing the possibility of mobilising an additional 500,000 troops, adding that he had asked the military for more details on this “very sensitive matter”.
Two soldiers with the 58th Independent Motorized Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian Army who wanted to be identified as ‘Ghost’, 24, and ‘Soap’, 30, arm a drone with a modified grenade to test it, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues, near Bakhmut, Ukraine, November 25, 2022 [Leah Millis/Reuters]
Speaking on Tuesday, Putin said that Russia was open to negotiations with Ukraine, the US, and Europe but added that Russia “will not give up what is ours”.
“The West isn’t abandoning its strategy of containment of Russia and its aggressive goals in Ukraine,” Putin said. “Well, we also aren’t going to abandon the goals of the special military operation.”
Congolese authorities have long accused UN forces of failing to protect civilians from armed groups in the eastern DRC.
The United Nations Security Council has voted unanimously in favour of gradually phasing out its peacekeeping operations known as MONUSCO in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The 15-member body voted on Tuesday to draw down peacekeeping forces in the Central African nation about a year earlier than originally scheduled despite continued concerns over violence.
The decision was made as the DRC prepares for presidential and parliamentary elections on Wednesday, in which poverty and widespread insecurity are expected to be key issues for voters.
Numerous armed groups, including the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) and M23, are active in provinces such as North Kivu, South Kivu and Ituri in the eastern DRC, where civilians face violence and displacement.
Despite concerns over security, Congolese authorities have persistently called for the UN to scale down its presence in the country, saying it has failed to protect civilians from armed groups.
DRC President Felix Tshisekedi, who is running for re-election, said in remarks at the UN General Assembly in September that he had called on his government to accelerate the withdrawal of MONUSCO’s 14,000 soldiers so it would commence by the end of the year.
UN forces operating in other African nations have faced similar criticism. In June, the UN voted to end a decade-old peacekeeping mission in Mali after calls to do so from the country’s military government.
Wednesday’s elections are seen as a crucial test for democracy in the DRC, where only one peaceful transition of power has occurred in 63 years.
Tshisekedi won the December 2018 presidential election, which was tainted by allegations of voting irregularities, and voters have expressed concerns that Wednesday’s vote could face similar issues or even an outbreak of violence.
As the war enters its 664th day, these are the main developments.
Here is the situation on Tuesday, December 19, 2023.
Fighting
Ukraine’s Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi said the situation on the front line was not at a stalemate, after suggesting last month that it was a possibility. He declined to comment on the coming counteroffensive operations. “This is a war. I can’t say what I plan, what we should do. Otherwise, it will be a show, not a war,” Ukraine’s RBC media quoted him as saying.
Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, a senior army general who has led counteroffensives against the Russians, told the Reuters news agency that front-line troops faced shortages of artillery shells – particularly Soviet-era 122mm and 152mm ammunition – and had scaled back some military operations because of a shortfall of foreign assistance.
Zaluzhnyi criticised the president’s decision to fire regional military draft office chiefs. “These were professionals, they knew how to do this, and they are gone,” Interfax Ukraine cited him as saying. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired the country’s regional military recruitment heads in August in a corruption crackdown.
Politics and diplomacy
Zelenskyy said new sanctions imposed on Moscow by the European Union would “truly reduce” Russia’s ability to finance its invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s diplomatic mission to the EU said the latest action showed previous efforts had failed. The 12th package of sanctions includes a ban on Russian-origin diamonds, additional import and export bans, and a tightening of the rules to close loopholes and combat sanctions circumvention, the EU said.
The Russian government added the prominent writer Grigory Chkhartishvili – known by his pen name Boris Akunin – to a register of “terrorists and extremists” after he criticised the invasion of Ukraine. The 67-year-old is known for his historical detective novels and his longstanding criticism of President Vladimir Putin.
Weapons
United States President Joe Biden said he was planning one more military aid package for Ukraine this month and that further assistance would require agreement in Congress.
The Alphen Group, made up of more than 40 former top US and NATO diplomats and defence officials, urged the US Congress to approve new aid for Ukraine, warning that if Ukraine failed to win, it would not only be disastrous for Ukraine but also threaten the security of the US and its allies. Republicans earlier this month blocked an emergency spending bill including billions of dollars of aid for Ukraine, demanding tougher steps to control immigration at the US-Mexico border.
Denmark set aside 1.8 billion Danish crowns ($264m) to help finance a Swedish initiative to donate CV90 armoured combat vehicles to Ukraine, the Danish Defence Ministry said in a statement.
As the war enters its 663rd day, these are the main developments.
Here is the situation on Monday, December 18, 2023.
Fighting
Ukraine’s Air Force said it destroyed 20 Russian drones and a missile – nine of them in the southern Odesa region. The falling debris started a fire in a residential home and killed one person. The air force said a second missile “did not reach its goal”. On Saturday, Ukraine said its air defence systems shot down 30 Russia-launched drones over 11 regions of the country
Russia’s Defence Ministry said its air defence systems destroyed or intercepted a total of 35 Ukraine-launched drones over its Lipetsk, Volgograd and Rostov regions in Russia. It did not say what was targeted or whether there was any damage. The Ukrainska Pravda media outlet later reported that the attack – reportedly a joint operation of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and Ukraine’s Armed Forces – was targeting the Morozovsk airfield in the Rostov region. Several Russian military bloggers said that one bomber at the base suffered minor damage.
The Freedom of Russia Legion, a Ukrainian-based paramilitary group of Russians who oppose President Vladimir Putin, said it was behind a cross-border attack inside Russia’s Belgorod region. The group said it had destroyed a platoon stronghold of Russian troops near Trebreno village and planted mines, but did not elaborate. Vyacheslav Gladkov, Belgorod’s regional governor, said Trebreno was under fire from Ukraine’s Armed Forces and that a “shooting battle” was under way on the edge of the village. He said three houses and a power line were damaged.
A protest in Kyiv’s Saint Sophia Square calling for an urgent exchange of POWs with Russia to free Ukrainians taken captive following the fall of Mariupol [Roman Pilipey/AFP]
The Associated Press news agency published drone footage indicating the scale of Russian casualties in the intense battles for control of the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka. The footage showed the bodies of about 150 soldiers – most of them in Russian uniforms – lying on the ground where they died outside Stepove, a village north of Avdiivka, that has been reduced to rubble. The drone unit said it is possible that some of the dead were Ukrainians.
Family and friends of Ukrainian soldiers from the so-called Azov battalion held captive by Russia since the fall of Mariupol held a rally in Kyiv calling for their urgent exchange with Russian prisoners of war.
Politics and diplomacy
Ukraine’s security service said it had launched a criminal investigation after a “technical device” was found in an office that could have been used in the future by Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhnyi. It added that the device – initially characterised as a bug by local media – was considered under preliminary information to be “in a non-operational state”, and no means of information storage or remote transmission of audio recordings were found.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine and the European Commission would soon assess Kyiv’s progress on aligning its legislation with that of the European Union. A framework for negotiations on Ukraine’s EU accession is also expected in the coming months, he added in his nightly video address.
Putin dismissed as “complete nonsense” remarks by United States President Joe Biden that Russia would be emboldened to attack a NATO country if it was successful in its invasion of Ukraine. Putin said Russia had no interest in fighting the NATO military alliance. Biden stressed the threat posed by Moscow in an appeal to Republican lawmakers resisting new support for Kyiv.
A senior US congressional negotiator working over the weekend to craft a deal that would be acceptable to its critics said he was “very optimistic” about a solution. The Republicans have demanded the aid to Ukraine and Israel be linked to new measures at the US’s southern border. “I’m very encouraged. I’m very optimistic they’re moving in a very positive way,” Joe Manchin, a Democrat, told CNN’s State of the Union program.
Police in Finland are seeking a court order to imprison a Russian man accused of committing war crimes against wounded or surrendered soldiers in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and 2015. Yan Petrovsky, who had been living in Finland under the name Voislav Torden, is already in Finnish custody but authorities are asking that he be formally jailed while they conduct an investigation into his alleged crimes.
As the war enters its 660th day, these are the main developments.
Here is the situation on Friday, December 15, 2023.
Fighting
Ukraine’s Air Force said Russia launched 42 drones and six missiles, mostly targeting the southern Odesa region. Air defence systems destroyed most of the Iranian-made Shahed drones but 11 people were injured by falling debris, which also damaged buildings and warehouses.
The air force said Ukraine was also attacked by Russian fighter jets dropping Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. One missile was shot down over the Kyiv region, but another two hit the west of the capital where there is an air base. Kyiv regional governor Ruslan Kravchenko said no casualties were reported, or damage to critical and civilian infrastructure.
Speaking at his annual press conference in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin said his forces were “improving their position on almost the entire line of contact” in Ukraine and that there would be no peace until Russia had achieved its goals.
Russia said it shot down nine Ukrainian drones heading towards Moscow. There were no reports of damage.
Romania summoned Russia’s ambassador over a “new violation” of its airspace after a drone crashed on its territory leaving a crater 1.5 metres deep near the town of Grindu, which faces the Ukrainian port of Reni on the other side of the River Danube.
Russia launched more missiles and drones on Ukraine with people in the capital taking shelter in metro stations [Sergei Chuzavkov/AFP]
Russia added Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR), to its list of people “wanted” for criminal offences. Moscow, which annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, accuses Budanov of organising a 2022 attack that partially destroyed the bridge it built linking the peninsula to Russia.
Politics and diplomacy
European Union leaders agreed to formally open accession talks with Ukraine, in a decision Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hailed as a “victory” for Ukraine and Europe. The United States, meanwhile, welcomed the move as “historic”.
EU leaders also agreed to impose a 12th round of sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. The latest sanctions will target diamond exports and improve enforcement of an oil price cap designed to reduce the amount of money Russia makes by selling crude to non-EU countries.
A Russian court overturned its decision to fine Oleg Orlov, the co-chair of Nobel Prize-winning human rights group Memorial, after finding him guilty of “discrediting Russian forces” after he said Russian soldiers were committing “murder” in Ukraine. The move means Orlov could now be jailed.
A Russian court upheld a decision to keep Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich in detention ahead of his trial on alleged charges of espionage that he denies. Asked about the journalist’s prolonged detention during his annual press conference, Putin said he hoped for a solution with the US. “There are contacts on this issue and dialogue is ongoing, but it’s not straightforward,” he said. Gershkovich was arrested in March.
Igor Girkin, a 52-year-old hardline nationalist who is better known by his alias Igor Strelkov, went on trial in Moscow on charges of extremism after criticising the Kremlin’s military strategy in Ukraine. Girkin, a 52-year-old hardline nationalist who is better known by his alias Igor Strelkov, was a top commander in the Russian-backed armed groups in eastern Ukraine that began fighting Kyiv in 2014. He was arrested in July.
Weapons
Zelenskyy made an unannounced visit to Germany that media reports said would focus on securing armaments for the war. The Ukrainian president visited the US military base in Wiesbaden, where he said he was “once again convinced of the excellent quality of US military aid to Ukraine”. Ukraine is trying to convince right-wing Republicans in the US to back billions of dollars in additional aid that they have been blocking in Congress.
Ukrainian media said the country had taken delivery of an additional Patriot air defence system as Russia steps up aerial attacks on the country.
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