Will Netanyahu risk a tunnel conflict to ‘eradicate Hamas’, stay in power? | Israel-Palestine conflict News

Benjamin Netanyahu’s hold on his position as prime minister of Israel appears increasingly tenuous.

Many Israelis hold him and his cabinet responsible for the security failures of October 7, and he has come under heavy domestic criticism for his handling of the war on Gaza. Add to that the fact he has long been bogged down by corruption charges and criticism over plans to change the judicial system.

Several polls show he would be forced to step down if elections were held now.

Now, as Israeli forces march deeper into southern Gaza, Netanyahu could face a decision that may have huge political ramifications for his career: Whether to send Israeli troops into the 500km (310-mile) tunnel network below Gaza.

‘Each tunnel poses a significant threat’

If Israelis were to enter the tunnel network in Gaza, it would usher in a new phase in the war, significantly levelling the playing field between the opponents, according to Philip Ingram, MBE, a former British military intelligence officer.

Above ground, Israel has waged a relentless aereal bombardment and ground invasion of the 365sq km (141sq mile) enclave, using its superiority in arms.

Underground, Hamas would be able to rely on a sophisticated network of tunnels that would channel Israeli soldiers on foot into a single file.

The challenges for the Israelis would be “enormous” due to a lack of sufficient information on where the tunnels are, how far they stretch and what potential boobytraps were laid out by Hamas in preparation, Ingram said.

From a military point of view, the Israelis would want to “avoid actually having to fight in the tunnel”, he added.

Given Hamas’s expertise in setting booby traps and ambushes, “each tunnel poses a significant threat” to Israeli troops, Elijah Magnier, a military analyst who has covered the Middle East for more than 30 years, believes.

The “Palestinian resistance appears to have a strategic advantage” when it comes to tunnel warfare he said, referencing the high numbers of Israeli soldiers who die or are injured when searching for entrances to the tunnel network.

The Israel military boasts the Weasels (Samur), a specialised tunnel-warfare unit amongst its ranks, Ingram said, explaining that the specialised troops will have “all the gadgets” and trained dogs to help navigate the tunnels.

Still, no matter how much they will have practised, he says, the reality of what is down there remains largely unknown, making it very risky.

The preparations Hamas will have made and their intimate knowledge of the sprawling tunnel network would also shift the fighting from a “360-degree conflict” above ground to a “3D” one for the Israeli troops who could face an attack from any angle, he said.

Regardless, experts believe a potential conflict in the tunnels remains a probable outcome due to Netanyahu’s promise to eliminate Hamas and its underground command centres.

Magnier believes that the recent seven-day “humanitarian pause” in Gaza “allowed Hamas and Islamic Jihad to restructure their defensive strategies and prepare for the ongoing conflict”.

There were media reports weeks ago that Israel would consider trying to gain an advantage by using poison gas in the tunnels to try to eradicate Hamas fighters in them. The idea caused an international uproar.

The Wall Street Journal recently said Israel could be weighing up flooding the tunnels with seawater as an alternative to troops having to enter.

Citing US officials, the media outlet said Israeli forces had already assembled a system of five pumps just north of the Shati refugee camp in mid-November.

The pumps would draw water from the Mediterranean into the tunnels and would be able to flood the network within weeks, the article said.

‘Eradicate Hamas’

Netanyahu committed to “destroying Hamas” as one of the responses to the attack on October 7.

And he may ultimately decide to send troops into the tunnels to save his political career, despite the risk of huge casualties, Nader Hashemi, associate professor of Middle East and Islamic politics at Georgetown University, said.

Netanyahu, Hashemi added, knows that unless he can “eradicate Hamas and … claim an ultimate victory, he doesn’t have a chance to continue in Israeli politics”.

It is not just the defeat of Hamas that Netanyahu has promised but also the release of the 125 captives Israel says are still in Gaza.

Israel believes the captives are kept in the underground networks below Gaza, which means access to the tunnels will be viewed as crucial by the Israeli forces tasked with freeing them, according to Magnier.

A military operation in the tunnels could also put these captives at risk, something else that Netanyahu may be willing to risk to secure the defeat of Hamas.

Hashemi refers to the Hannibal Directive, a mysterious Israeli military policy that reportedly allows the use of maximum force in the event of a soldier being kidnapped, even if it resulted in the death of the soldier, as an indication that Israel could “prioritise its military objectives over the deaths of hostages”.

Military costs vs political benefits

Hashemi said that even as Netanyahu looks at a potential operation in the tunnels, the question on his mind will be “how many casualties is he willing to publicly suffer” to accomplish his goal.

Ingram feels the decision will be made after weighing risks against benefits and that a likely outcome will be Israel continuing to map the network from above, using ground-penetrating radar and looking to identify key command centres which they can target specifically by “blowing a hole” in the network.

He says that although there was tunnel warfare in many previous conflicts, the “underground city” Hamas has created has taken it to “a new level”. The Israeli military is facing an unprecedented task, he said, and will need to be incredibly cautious.

When Israel could attempt to enter the tunnels remains unclear.

Israel is under pressure, Magnier said, “in the face of mounting global criticism and war crimes and crimes against humanity” and while that implies that it would need to accomplish its goals faster, “setting a specific timetable for ground operations is a challenge for any military commander”.

The Israeli advance, he says, has been “remarkably slow despite being in a small but densely populated residential area”.

Israel’s indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas has provided cover and shelter, inadvertently aiding the resistance, he explains.

If Israeli troops do enter the tunnel network, it could spell a prolonged conflict, played out underground in an information vacuum.

Hemmed in, Hamas may face fuel and supply shortages while, in contrast, Israeli troops could be “crawling for weeks and weeks just to progress 100 metres”.

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Blinken urges Israel to finish probe into killing of journalist in Lebanon | Media News

Blinken’s comments come after rights groups say Israel should be investigated over possible war crime.

United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken has urged Israel to conclude and release the findings of a probe into artillery strikes that killed a journalist and wounded six others in Lebanon.

Blinken said on Thursday that it is “important and appropriate” that Israel thoroughly investigate the October 13 strike in southern Lebanon.

“My understanding is that Israel has initiated such an investigation, and it will be important to see that investigation come to a conclusion and to see the results of the investigation,” the top US diplomat said during a news conference.

Blinked also said he had “extraordinary admiration” for journalists working in dangerous regions around the world.

Blinken’s comments came after separate investigations by Human Rights Watch (HRW), Amnesty International and the Reuters and AFP news agencies found that an Israeli tank was responsible for the October 13 strikes in southern Lebanon.

The attacks killed Reuters journalist Issam Abdallah and injured six other journalists, including Al Jazeera cameraperson Elie Brakhia and reporter Carmen Joukhadar.

Israel’s military has said it is reviewing the circumstances of the strikes but has yet to release any findings from its investigations.

HRW said in its report on Thursday that the attacks appeared to be deliberate and, therefore, a war crime.

“Witness accounts and video and photo evidence that Human Rights Watch verified indicate that the journalists were well removed from ongoing hostilities, clearly identifiable as members of the media, and had been stationary for at least 75 minutes before they were hit by two consecutive strikes,” the rights group said.

“Human Rights Watch found no evidence of a military target near the journalists’ location.”

Amnesty said its investigation showed that the Israeli military had likely carried out a “direct attack on civilians” and should be investigated for committing a potential war crime.

At least 63 journalists have been killed since the start of the war in Gaza, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists.

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UNICEF: Lack of basic necessities threatening lives of thousands in Gaza | Israel-Palestine conflict News

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“Trauma is utterly unprecedented“ UNICEF tells Al Jazeera that the lack of water, food, medicine and protection is becoming an even bigger threat than bombs to the lives of thousands in Gaza.

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Is Israel’s Gaza War the most destructive yet with conventional weapons? | Israel-Palestine conflict

Some military analysts have compared the Israeli bombardment of Gaza with bombing campaigns from World War II.

The Israeli assault on Gaza has included the bombing of an area with an intensity that military analysts say hasn’t been seen since the second world war.

Most of the weaponry is supplied by the United States.

Is this war different to others in terms of its scale and speed?

Presenter: Tom McRae

Guests:

Colin Clarke – Research director, The Soufan Group, a global intelligence and security consultancy.

Patrick Bury – Defence and security analyst at the University of Bath.

Sam Perlo-Freeman – Research co-ordinator at Campaign Against Arms Trade in the UK.

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Photos: Death and devastation in Gaza after two months of Israel-Hamas war | Israel-Palestine conflict

Gaza has been ravaged by more than two months of relentless Israeli bombardment that has levelled entire neighbourhoods and delivered death and destruction to the enclave’s 2.3 million residents.

Hospitals, schools and refugee camps have been targeted, with United Nations personnel and facilities also attacked by Israel at unprecedented rates.

More than 17,000 people have been killed in the Israeli assault, according to Palestinian authorities, including more than 7,000 children.

Hundreds of thousands of others have been displaced within the Gaza Strip and more than 46,000 people in Gaza have been injured since then.

Less than 1 percent of wounded people have been evacuated via the Rafah Crossing to Egypt for treatment, Gaza health ministry spokesperson Ashraf al-Qidra said on Thursday.

A week-long truce between Israel and Hamas was brokered by Qatar and other mediators to allow the release of captives taken by Hamas during its attack on southern Israel on October 7, which killed more than 1,200 people, according to Israeli authorities. In exchange, Israel released hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.

The truce collapsed on December 1 and fighting has resumed since.

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Israeli army shoots Palestinian street vendor | Israel-Palestine conflict News

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The family of a Palestinian street vendor in Hebron say he was shot, point blank, by Israeli forces on his way home from work. Al Jazeera correspondent, Nida Ibrahim spoke to the family, and sent this video, capturing the moment he was shot.

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Deadly air strike in Gaza area where Israel told people to go | Gaza

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18 members of one family were killed in Israeli air attacks in the southern city of Rafah, in a neighbourhood where Israeli forces had told people to go to avoid their assault elsewhere in south Gaza.

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Are Israel’s attempts to demoralise the Palestinians backfiring? | Israel-Palestine conflict

Middle East expert Steven Cook says US President Joe Biden made a mistake with his ‘bear hug’ embrace of Israel.

Some US officials have talked about the need to protect innocent Palestinian lives, but US President Joe Biden has said almost nothing.

Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow Steven Cook says it was a mistake for Biden to have offered the “bear hug” – full, unconditional support for Israel.

Now Biden is stuck in a position of supplying Israel with the means to kill more Palestinians while asking Israel to allow basic food and water into Gaza.

Join host Steve Clemons in his wide-ranging conversation with Cook about where the war on Gaza is heading.

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Israel should face war crimes probe over journalist death in Lebanon: NGOs | Israel-Palestine conflict News

Rights groups say attack that killed Reuters journalist and injured six others ‘likely a direct attack on civilians’.

International rights groups have said that Israeli strikes that killed a journalist and injured six others in southern Lebanon were likely a direct attack on civilians and must be investigated as a war crime.

Separate investigations by Human Rights Watch (HRW) and Amnesty International determined that Israel’s military shot artillery shells at journalists near the border on October 13, in what appeared to be targeted attacks on civilians.

The attacks killed Reuters journalist Issam Abdallah and injured six other journalists, including Al Jazeera cameraperson Elie Brakhia and reporter Carmen Joukhadar.

HRW said the “evidence indicates that the Israeli military knew or should have known that the group of people they were firing on were civilians”, making the attack a “war crime”.

“This is an unlawful and apparently deliberate attack on a very visible group of journalists”, HRW’s statement said.

The group also called on Israel’s allies – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and Germany – to “suspend military assistance and arms sales to Israel, given the risk they will be used for grave abuses”.

Amnesty, in its own report, said the Israeli military strikes “were likely a direct attack on civilians that must be investigated as a war crime”.

The group’s investigation indicated that the journalists were “well removed from ongoing hostilities, clearly identifiable as members of the media, and had been stationary for at least 75 minutes before they were hit”.

“No journalist should ever be targeted or killed simply for carrying out their work. Israel must not be allowed to kill and attack journalists with impunity,” said Aya Majzoub, Amnesty’s deputy regional director for the Middle East and North Africa.

Journalists covering the Gaza war on the ground are facing unparalleled danger, according to the media rights group Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ).

Since the Gaza war broke out, at least 63 journalists have been killed, including 56 Palestinians, four Israelis, and three Lebanese nationals, according to the group.

The war has also led to “the deadliest month for journalists” since CPJ began tracking data in 1992.

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