In an UpFront special, we discuss where the war in Ukraine currently stands and where it is heading.
It’s been two years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, causing mass destruction and a mounting civilian death toll.
Even with support from the West, Ukraine is facing increased weapons and infantry shortages as its fight against Russian forces carries on, seemingly with no end in sight.
So what future lays ahead for Ukraine and could the war spill over into neighbouring countries? Are peace negotiations even possible or does it run the risk of becoming an endless war?
In an UpFront Special, Marc Lamont Hill discusses the fallout of Russia’s war on Ukraine with Ukrainian Member of Parliament Lesia Vasylenko, political scientist Ilya Matveev, and journalist Aaron Mate.
Support of top NATO powers makes Rutte favourite to succeed current Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in October.
The United States, United Kingdom, France and Germany have all thrown their weight behind outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to become NATO’s next secretary general, at a crucial time for the alliance as Russia’s war against Ukraine rages on.
Top NATO powers on Thursday backed Rutte to succeed current chair Jens Stoltenberg when he steps down in October, putting him in a strong position to win the leadership of the transatlantic alliance.
Stoltenberg’s successor will take office at a crucial juncture, tasked with sustaining NATO members’ support for Ukraine’s costly defence while guarding against any escalation that would draw the alliance directly into a war with Moscow.
“The United States has made it clear to our allies, our NATO allies, that we believe Mr Rutte would be an excellent secretary general for NATO,” US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told journalists on Thursday.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s spokesman said the UK “does strongly back” Rutte, adding that the UK wanted a candidate who would “keep NATO strong and deliver on the alliance’s NATO 2030 vision”.
The British Foreign Office also said Rutte was a well-respected figure across NATO, with serious defence and security credentials and who would ensure it remained strong and prepared for any need to defend itself.
A senior French official told the Reuters news agency that President Emmanuel Macron had been an early supporter of putting Rutte in the role. And German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit said on X that Rutte had Berlin’s backing, praising him as “an outstanding candidate”.
Diplomats have said Rutte is the only official candidate for the post in the behind-the-scenes contest, although some said the name of Romanian President Klaus Iohannis had also been floated in informal discussions recently. Other candidates may include Estonian Primer Minister Kaja Kallas and Latvia’s foreign minister, Krisjanis Karins.
But with the support of Washington – the alliance’s predominant power – and the three big European nations and some 16 other NATO members, according to diplomats, Rutte is in a commanding position.
However, some analysts believe he could face opposition from Turkey and Hungary.
‘Interesting’ job
After ruling himself out for the NATO post in previous years, Rutte, 57, told Dutch media in October that running the military alliance was a “very interesting” job and he would be open to the prospect.
The Netherlands’ longest-serving leader, Rutte has had good relationships with various British, European Union and US leaders – including Donald Trump – during his tenure.
Set to run for a second term as US president later this year, Trump drew fierce criticism from Western officials earlier this month for calling into question his commitment to defending NATO allies if re-elected.
At the weekend, Rutte urged European leaders to “stop moaning and whining and nagging” about Trump and focus instead on what they could do to bolster defence and help Ukraine.
Founded in 1949 to counter the Soviet Union during the Cold War, NATO is a political and military alliance of countries from North America and Europe.
NATO leaders are appointed by consensus, meaning all members must consent to a final decision. The alliance currently has 31 members, with Sweden poised to join soon.
Farmers are angry at what they say is unfair competition from cheaper imports from Poland’s war-torn neighbour and ally.
Polish farmers have blocked border crossings with Ukraine, spilled Ukrainian grain and burned tyres as they intensified a nationwide protest against the import of Ukrainian foods and European Union environmental policies.
Farmers from Spain to Italy to Belgium have been protesting in recent weeks, worried that the EU’s Green Deal plan to place limits on the use of chemicals and greenhouse gas emissions will result in a reduction in production and income.
They were also revolting against competition from non-EU countries, in particular Ukraine, a large producer of agricultural goods.
Polish farmers drove their tractors on Tuesday through Gdansk, Krakow and other cities, honking their horns in the noisy protest. They said their action would become ever more dramatic until their demands are met. Elsewhere they blocked the entrances to highways and about 100 roads to the Ukrainian border.
They want Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government to withdraw Poland from the Green Deal and to stop the import of agricultural imports from Ukraine. A sign on one tractor in Gdansk accused the government of caring more about Ukraine than Polish farmers. “Such a policy ruins farmers,” another sign said.
The farmers spilled Ukrainian grain in Medyka, a Polish border town, leading to sharp criticism from the Ukrainian ambassador to Poland.
“We strongly condemn the spilling of Ukrainian grain by protesters in Medyka,” Ambassador Vasyl Zvarych wrote on X, formerly Twitter, adding, “The police should react decisively and punish those who break the law. It is also a lack of respect for the work of Ukrainian farmers in conditions of Russian aggression, towards themselves and other people.”
The protests are a growing source of tensions between Ukraine and neighbours across its Western border which support its efforts to fight off Russia’s invasion but are facing pressure from farmers.
The farmers say Ukrainian grain and other food imports are damaging their livelihoods by creating a glut in the market that pushes down prices.
“I’m here to get rid of the restrictions introduced by the European Union regarding fallow land, the Green Deal and above all to stop Ukrainian food flowing in,” Tomasz Golak, who runs an animal and cereal farm, told the news agency AFP.
“This year, wheat is selling for half the price it did last year,” he said.
The 27-nation EU last month eased restrictions that obliged farmers to keep part of their land fallow and this month extended that exemption under pressure from protests.
Roads into EU member Poland have been an export lifeline for Ukraine, particularly its agriculture sector, after the 2022 Russian invasion complicated major trading routes through the Black Sea.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy singled out the protesting Polish farmers in his nightly address Monday, saying their actions indicated an “erosion of solidarity”.
“Near Kupiansk, close to the Russian border, where enemy artillery does not cease, news from the border with Poland seems outright mocking,” said Zelenskyy.
According to Zelenskyy, Ukraine exports only 5 percent of its grains through the Polish border. “So in reality, the situation is not about grain, but rather about politics,” he said.
In response to the protests, Ukrainian drivers started a rally near three crossing points with Poland, the Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne reported. “The blockade of Ukraine is a betrayal of European values,” a sign on one truck said.
More protests are expected on Thursday in central Europe.
Countries including the US and UK called for authorities to investigate reported irregularities in Pakistan’s election.
Several countries have called for authorities to investigate reported irregularities in Pakistan’s general elections as vote counting is under way.
Results started to trickle in nearly 12 hours after polling for national and provincial assemblies ended on Thursday.
Independent candidates affiliated with imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), are taking a narrow lead.
Polls were marred by violence by armed groups and a widely criticised suspension of mobile phone services that prompted accusations of “political engineering”.
The army said about 12 people were killed and 39 wounded nationwide during attacks aimed at disrupting the vote.
Here are some global reactions to events so far:
United States
The US Department of State has said it is looking forward to “timely, complete election results” from Pakistan reflecting the will of its people.
“The United States is prepared to work with the next Pakistani government, regardless of political party, to advance our shared interests,” it said in a statement.
“We join credible international and local election observers in their assessment that these elections included undue restrictions on freedoms of expression, association, and peaceful assembly,” it added.
“We condemn electoral violence … and are concerned about allegations of interference in the electoral process. Claims of interference or fraud should be fully investigated.”
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom voiced “serious concerns raised about the fairness and lack of inclusivity of the elections”.
In a statement, UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron said “not all parties” were able to formally contest the election and that “legal processes” were used to prevent some political leaders from participating.
He also noted restrictions to internet access, as well as delays and irregularities in reporting.
“The UK urges authorities in Pakistan to uphold fundamental human rights including free access to information, and the rule of law,” Cameron said.
“The new government must be accountable to the people it serves, and work to represent the interests of all Pakistan’s citizens and communities with equity and justice,” he added.
We recognise serious concerns over the fairness and lack of inclusivity of Pakistan’s elections.
Authorities must uphold fundamental human rights including free access to information and the rule of law.
The European Union has praised the continued “commitment to democracy” by the people of Pakistan.
Still, the bloc said, “We regret the lack of a level playing field due to the inability of some political actors to contest the elections, restrictions to freedom of assembly, freedom of expression both online and offline, restrictions of access to the internet, as well as allegations of severe interference in the electoral process, including arrests of political activists.”
The EU called on authorities to “ensure a timely and full investigation of all reported election irregularities”.
Iran
“Iran’s FM Spokesman congratulated Pakistan’s government & people on successfully holding their parliamentary elections, saying it shows the solid place of democracy in the country,” the Iranian Foreign Ministry posted on the social media platform X.
It added that Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani “wished the brotherly, friendly and neighbourly country of Pakistan increasing prosperity”.
Following two years of political paralysis, Northern Ireland’s devolved assembly is set to return to full working order after a new agreement on trade between the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and the UK government was ratified by the House of Commons on Thursday.
The Protestant DUP – Northern Ireland’s largest pro-UK party – collapsed the nationalist-unionist power-sharing government in February 2022 in protest at trading arrangements made in the wake of the United Kingdom’s official withdrawal from the European Union.
This week, the leader of the ultra-conservative DUP, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, welcomed the new agreement, which, he said, would safeguard Northern Ireland’s place in the UK’s internal market.
Ever since the assembly first sat in 1998, when three decades of conflict between Protestant loyalists and Catholic republican paramilitaries in Northern Ireland largely came to an end under the Good Friday Agreement, unionists (those who wished to remain in the UK) have dominated the Belfast-based legislature.
However, when the devolved government is restored, Michelle O’Neill of Sinn Fein will become the first Irish nationalist to assume the role of Northern Ireland’s first minister following her party’s success in the May 2022 assembly elections.
Sinn Fein’s Conor Murphy and Michelle O’Neill address the media outside the Grand Central Hotel on January 31, 2024, in Belfast, United Kingdom following a meeting at which the DUP agreed to return to Stormont after the UK government signed up to a further deal on post-Brexit trade arrangements [Charles McQuillan/Getty Images]
Why did the DUP dissolve the assembly in 2022?
Prior to the UK’s withdrawal from the EU in January 2020 – a process also known as Brexit – trade between the UK and its neighbouring EU member state, the Republic of Ireland, which shares a land border with Northern Ireland, was seamless. But when the UK ceased to be part of the Brussels-based European bloc, a new arrangement had to be reached.
The first post-Brexit trade deal agreed between the UK and the EU in January 2021, the Northern Ireland Protocol, aimed to permit trade to continue between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. It introduced checks on goods arriving into Northern Ireland from Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) at Northern Irish ports rather than at the border with the Irish Republic. This also included checks on goods which were destined to remain in Northern Ireland.
The ardently pro-British DUP, which itself supported the UK’s decision to leave the EU, contended that such an agreement effectively placed a border in the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, prompting the party to suspend its involvement with the assembly.
A later UK-EU deal, known as the Windsor Framework, which built on the Northern Ireland Protocol, was agreed in 2023, but this did not satisfy the DUP either.
What’s in the latest trade deal?
The DUP’s new deal with the British government includes an end to routine checks on goods arriving from Great Britain that are destined to remain in Northern Ireland. This, together with other amendments, has paved the way for the DUP’s return – and a potential recommencement of the devolved government within days.
The British government has also pledged a 3.3-billion-pound ($4.2bn) financial package for Northern Ireland on the resumption of the assembly.
But while Donaldson claimed that the new agreement removed the Irish Sea border, not everyone in his party has been convinced by the new deal.
Sammy Wilson, a House of Commons DUP parliamentarian, complained that, unlike England, Scotland and Wales, Northern Ireland had still not completely severed itself from the EU.
“Despite the gains that my party leader and deputy party leader have made in these negotiations, the fact remains that in Northern Ireland there are still EU-manned border posts being built which will create a border within our own country,” he claimed.
What impact has the lack of a functioning government had on Northern Ireland?
Without a working government, the job of running Northern Ireland’s day-to-day affairs has fallen to civil servants.
John Garry, a professor of political behaviour at Queen’s University Belfast, told Al Jazeera, “Decision-making has been difficult because civil servants do not have a political mandate to make important economic decisions that affect service provision.”
Indeed, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) has painted a bleak picture of the state of Northern Ireland’s healthcare system.
“Northern Ireland’s health crisis has worsened considerably over the past two years,” reported the BMJ on January 31. “Waiting lists are at an all time high – the worst anywhere in the UK or Ireland – while many GP surgeries are teetering on the brink.”
Could Irish unification happen under a republican first minister?
Twenty-six years after the end of the conflict in Northern Ireland – known as the Troubles – the UK’s smallest constituent nation remains divided between those agitating for unification with the Irish Republic and those wishing to remain part of the UK.
In May 2022, elections for the Northern Irish assembly saw Irish republican party Sinn Fein secure the most seats for the first time, pushing the DUP into second place and reviving talk of a poll on Irish unity.
Under the 1998 Belfast Agreement, which brought the assembly into being, Irish nationalists and pro-British unionists are required to share power, with the roles of first and deputy first minister decided on the basis of electoral mandates.
Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Fein’s president, said earlier this week that Irish unification — essentially Northern Ireland merging with the Republic of Ireland — was now within “touching distance”.
But despite the elevation of Sinn Fein’s vice president, Michelle O’Neill, to first minister, nationalists in Northern Ireland are still some way off from being able to win over a majority of Northern Ireland’s voting public in favour of a united Ireland.
“The latest research, as published in recent weeks in The Irish Times, indicates that there is not a majority in Northern Ireland in favour of Irish unification,” said Garry. In that research, it was found that half favoured remaining in the United Kingdom, 30 percent favoured unification with Ireland, while the remainder either didn’t know or would not vote.
“So, public opinion is significantly favouring the Union rather than Irish unification,” said Garry.
Spotify said on Friday that Apple’s new plan to comply with the European Union’s Digital Markets Act (DMA) is “a complete and total farce.”
From early March, developers will be able to offer alternative app stores on iPhone and opt out of using Apple’s in-app payment system, which charges commissions of up to 30 percent, under the bloc’s new rules.
However, developers will still be required to pay a “core technology fee” of EUR 50 (roughly Rs. 4,500) per user account per year under Apple’s new EU regime.
“From the beginning, Apple has been clear that they didn’t like the idea of abiding by the DMA. So they’ve formulated an undesirable alternative to the status quo,” the music streaming-giant said on Friday.
Spotify said it would have to pay a 17 percent commission if it stays in the App Store and offers its own in-app payment under the new terms.
“Every developer can choose to stay on the same terms in place today. And under the new terms, more than 99 percent of developers would pay the same or less to Apple,” Apple said in an emailed statement to Reuters.
Apple faces strong action if changes to its App Store do not meet incoming regulations, the bloc’s industry chief exclusively told Reuters on Friday.
Facebook parent Meta will allow users in the European Union, European Economic Area, and Switzerland to prevent information from being shared across the company’s apps. As a result, people who live in these regions will be able to use Instagram and Facebook separately, even if they are connected on the platform. Meanwhile, Meta will also allow users to create a Messenger account that is not linked to their Facebook account while changing how messaging on the company’s Marketplace platform works.
In a detailed post explaining the changes being made to comply with regulations — the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA) — that Meta and other firms must comply with, the company says that users in the EU, EEA, and Switzerland who have already linked their Facebook and Instagram accounts can continue to operate these accounts, or unlink their accounts “so that their information is no longer used across accounts”.
Meta’s announcement comes a month after Instagram-Messenger cross app chats were shut down. Three years after CEO Mark Zuckerberg said Meta would allow users to chat across its services, the company limited messaging to each platform. It also turned on support for end-to-end encrypted (E2EE) chats on Messenger in December.
Meanwhile, the company is also changing how users in these regions can use Messenger — while you can continue to chat using your Facebook account, Meta will also let you sign up for a new Messenger account that operates independently of your existing account. You’ll be able to send messages and call your contacts, but some features won’t work as expected.
For example, Messenger features for Marketplace that allow sellers to chat with buyers will be replaced with an option to use email, if their accounts are unlinked. Similarly, users who unlink their accounts from Facebook Gaming won’t have access to multiplayer features and targeted recommendations, according to the company.
Just like Meta’s optional ad-free subscription for Facebook and Instagram that was introduced two months ago, these changes will only be available to users in the EU, EEA, and Switzerland. The company could also bring the same functionality to other regions if legislation similar to the DMA is passed, allowing users in more countries to operate their accounts independently.
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More than 100 members of European Parliament signed a letter arguing the move is ‘necessary’ to protect the values of the European Union.
Some European Union lawmakers have called on member states to punish the Hungarian leader Viktor Orban by moving closer to withdrawing his voting rights.
At least 120 of the European Parliament’s 705 members signed a letter sent to the parliament’s president, Roberta Metsola, on Friday calling for more pressure on Budapest.
“Hungary has been repeatedly criticised for its erosion of the Rule of Law, and especially after Hungary’s actions to disrupt the decision-making of the Member-States in the December EUCO, we believe that the time has come for the European Parliament to take action,” the letter read.
The European Council (EUCO) is the collegiate body that defines the overall political direction and priorities of the EU. In December, Orban blocked a review of the bloc’s budget that included granting Ukraine 50 billion euros ($55bn) in new financial aid through 2027.
The letter called for a process to be started that could result in “the suspension of specific membership rights of Hungary, including voting rights in the Council”.
“We believe that this action is necessary to protect the values of the European Union,” the letter added.
Signatures collected! We are one step closer to withdraw Orban’s voting rights.
The feedback was strong, thanks to everyone who has supported this historical petition. I gathered 120 names across party lines and from several Member States. 1/3 https://t.co/vjFyFk46zf
Last month’s EU summit capped another year of bitter feuds between the bloc and Budapest over the independence of Hungarian courts, corruption and freedom of minorities, non-governmental organisations and education.
“The letter demonstrates a clear willingness in the Parliament to launch Article 7.2 TEU,” the author of the letter, Finland’s member of European Parliament (MEP), Petri Sarvamaa, said, referring to the next step in the disciplinary steps for countries not respecting the rule of law.
“But above all, it highlights the urgency of addressing Viktor Orban’s actions,” said Sarvamaa, who is from the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), the most significant faction in the current European legislature.
But Balazs Hidveghi, a Hungarian MEP, dismissed the letter and called it another “attack” by Hungary’s critics.
“Our adversaries, who have been smearing Hungary with lies for years and are trying to make our life more difficult in Brussels … have launched another attack,” he said.
The European Parliament wants to adopt a resolution on Hungary next week as its main political factions are dissatisfied with the European Commission’s decision in December to unfreeze billions in EU financial support to Budapest.
The money had been suspended for years due to concerns that Orban undermined democratic checks and balances.
But the decision last month was part of a deal for Budapest to agree to funding for Kyiv, which Orban vetoed.
However, many MEPs argued that Budapest still needed to address the concerns of the rule of law.
Member states are expected to meet again on February 1 to try to approve the 50 billion euro ($54.7bn) package for Ukraine, which would be easier to do if Hungary could no longer vote on measures to help Kyiv.
While taking away Budapest’s votes was largely unrealistic due to its support from nationalist allies in Poland, its election in November last year, where the pro-EU Prime Minister Donald Tusk was elected, has pledged to make supporting Ukraine a key priority.
The move paves the way for a cabinet reshuffle as President Emmanuel Macron aims to give his presidency new momentum.
French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne has resigned, the French presidency said, as President Emmanuel Macron prepared to unveil a long-awaited cabinet reshuffle in an attempt to give a new impetus to his presidency.
“Ms Elisabeth Borne today submitted the resignation of the government to the president, who accepted it,” the presidency said in a statement on Monday.
Macron thanked Borne for “work in the service of our nation that has been exemplary every day”, in a post on X, formerly Twitter.
Borne, appointed in May 2022, was only the second female prime minister in French history. She will act as caretaker until a new government is named.
The president had fuelled speculation of a government reshuffle in December by promising a new political initiative. This came after the year 2023 was bookended by political crises prompted by highly contested reforms of the pension system and immigration laws.
The move comes just five months before European Parliament elections, with Eurosceptics expected to make strong gains at a time of widespread public discontent over surging living costs and the difficulties European governments face in curbing migration flows.
Opinion polls show Macron’s party is trailing that of far-right leader Marine Le Pen by around eight to 10 points ahead of the June vote.
What next?
Among those cited as potential candidates to replace Borne are 34-year-old Education Minister Gabriel Attal and 37-year-old Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu, either of whom would become France’s youngest-ever prime minister.
Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire and former Agriculture Minister Julien Denormandie have also been mentioned by pundits as possible options.
The change in prime minister will not necessarily lead to a shift in political tack, but rather signal a desire to move beyond the pension and immigration reforms and focus on new priorities, including hitting full employment.
Macron and his government, led by Borne, have struggled to deal with a more turbulent parliament to pass laws since losing their absolute majority shortly after Macron was re-elected for a second mandate in 2022.
The French president’s advisers say he has managed to pass the most challenging parts of his economic manifesto in the first year and a half of his second mandate, despite the lack of an absolute majority, and that future reforms, on education and euthanasia for instance, would be more consensual.
But Macron’s decision to use executive powers last year to pass a contested increase in the pension age to 64 triggered weeks of protests.
The reshuffle is likely to intensify the race in Macron’s camp to succeed him in the next presidential election in 2027, with Le Maire, former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, and current Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin all seen as potential candidates.
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