‘Sunday Night Football’ best bet

The 2024 season debut of “Sunday Night Football” might end up as the year’s best episode. 

The Rams face the Lions in Detroit in a rematch of last year’s one-point NFC divisional round playoff game.

Matt Stafford returns to Ford Field again, while Jared Goff looks to trump former head coach Sean McVay in back-to-back games.

An underrated “Sunday Night Football” storyline to watch is age-related. The Rams and Lions were two of the NFL’s youngest rosters by snap-weighted age last season.

Detroit is rebuilding its secondary with two draft choices (Terrion Arnold from Alabama and Ennis Rakestraw from Missouri).

Los Angeles figures to get much younger on defense after drafting five defensive players with its first six picks, including four front-seven players in the attempt to replace the now-retired Aaron Donald. 

Young talent means these rosters are trending upward, making for a likely entertaining football game. 

Still, the home team has the advantage in my prediction for Sunday’s showdown.

Rams vs. Lions odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Rams	+3.5 (-115)	+155	Over 51 (-110)
Lions	-3.5 (-105)	-178	Under 51 (-110)

Rams vs. Lions prediction

(8:20 p.m. ET, NBC) 

The Lions finished second in total rush defense last season but 27th in total pass defense.

That was partly thanks to an electric offense that got ahead early and forced opponents into passing situations.

Still, the bigger problem was a lifeless secondary that couldn’t defend outside the slot (Brian Branch was solid). 

That said, I see a path to defensive improvements for Detroit. 

It starts with D.J. Reader, a free-agent acquisition from Cincinnati, who can only help in the run game.

He’s a force of nature stuffing the middle – the Bengals ranked last in YPC allowed with Reader off the field (4.9) but first with him on (3.6). 

However, the less prominent acquisitions of cornerbacks Carlton Davis (Tampa Bay) and Amik Robertson (Las Vegas) should provide extra support for Branch in the secondary – alongside the rookie draft picks.

Adding edge-rusher Marcus Davenport (Minnesota) could also help Aidan Hutchison in the pass-rush department.

Hutchinson was incredible last season – he led the NFL in pressures (78) – but was often a one-man wrecking crew. 

Of greater importance, the Lions led the NFL in pressure rate last season (28%) but couldn’t convert those into sacks, ranking 23rd in that department (41).

They were among the NFL’s most aggressive defenses, blitzing at the NFL’s third-highest rate (9%), yet ranked dead last in yards per attempt allowed when blitzing (8.9). 

Surprisingly, the Lions were an excellent pass defense when not blitzing, ranking ninth in EPA per Pass (-0.05) and seventh in completion rate (63%) allowed.

Things worked when they allowed Hutchison to wreck offensive lines and dropped everyone back in coverage, but they were vulnerable to explosives when sending guys from the second and third levels. 

With some extra bodies in the secondary to complement Branch and an extra pass-rusher to complement Hutchison, I could see Dan Campbell and Aaron Glenn reworking their defensive scheme to be less aggressive and blitz-dependent. 

Conversely, I’m uncertain where LA’s defensive improvements come from. 

The Rams ranked 21st among NFL defenses in early-down EPA per Play allowed last season. Much of their late-season 7-1 run was thanks to an improved rush defense on third-and-short.

They’re breaking in a new defensive coordinator (Chris Shula), who will likely rely heavily on four rookies in the defensive line rotation (Jared Verse, Brennan Jackson, Braden Fiske, Tyler Davis). 

While a young defense with a new defensive coordinator can improve rapidly, I don’t see that happening in Week 1 against a top-five offense with a top-two offensive line.

I can’t project any drop-off for Ben Johnson’s elite motion-based, play-action, balanced offense (top-seven in EPA per Rush and Pass last year), especially with four offensive line starters returning led by stud right tackle Penei Sewell – Detroit could obliterate LA in the trenches.  

Conversely, I feel OK about Detroit’s defense against LA’s offense. 

The Rams are likely a tad overvalued offensively after last year’s late-season surge – offenses that improve mightily in the second half of a season often see regression the following year. 

Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson could roast rookie corner Arnold in 11 and 12 personnel. But they shouldn’t be able to run the ball against Detroit’s dominant rush defense, which was made even better with the acquisition of Reader.

This could make the Rams one-dimensional and lead to the Lions dropping more guys back in coverage, simultaneously avoiding harmful blitz packages while negating the play-action game – Stafford cooks on play-action, and the Lions allowed the second-most play-action passing yards in 2023.

That worry is exacerbated because the Rams are moving some pieces around on the offensive line.

They lost center Coleman Shelton in free agency and replaced him with left guard Jonah Jackson (from Detroit), so they’re moving former left guard Steve Avila to center. 

---

Betting on the NFL?

---

I feel relatively about the Lions here, save for one concern: injuries.

Sewell, Reader, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs are listed as “questionable” on Detroit’s recent injury report (ESPN). If the roster is severely shorthanded, I’ll likely buy out of my Lions positions. 

Rams vs. Lions pick

Lions -3.5 (-105, Caesars) ** Pending injury report