Penn State vs. USC prediction: College football odds, picks

The college football slates are getting better by the week and Saturday, we have a fascinating Big Ten matchup between Penn State and USC.

In the Trojans’ first year in the conference, this game provides a massive opportunity for them to make a statement.

Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions have championship aspirations and will hope to take care of business in this road trip out West.

Let’s take a look at the matchup and make a prediction.

Penn State vs. USC odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Over/Under
Penn State	-3.5 (-110)	-175	o51 (-105)
USC	+3.5 (-110)	+145	u51 (-115)

Penn State vs. USC prediction

When Penn State has the ball

Running back Nicholas Singleton missed last week’s win against UCLA, but he’s expected to return this week. He forms a lethal tandem with Kaytron Allen, and both are capable of ripping off big runs; they have a combined 22 carries of 10-plus yards.

There should be plenty of room against a USC run defense that ranks 104th in yards per carry allowed and has double-digit missed tackles in multiple games this season.

USC’s defense has been better this season under the leadership of D’Anton Lynn, but it’s still struggled to contain explosive runs; the Trojans have allowed five rushes of 39-plus yards.

Last week, Minnesota’s Darius Taylor had 115 yards after contact and forced six missed tackles. Two weeks prior, Michigan’s Kalel Mullings averaged almost 10 yards per carry and had an absurd breakaway run rate of 73%.

If the Trojans opt to load the box, quarterback Drew Allar can them pay by taking the top off the defense.

Allar’s efficiency has improved dramatically in Andy Kotelnicki’s offense. He’s completed 70.9% of his passes with 10.7 yards per attempt, compared to a 59.6% completion rate and 6.7 YPA in 2023. He also ranks third in the country in YPA on deep passes.

When USC has the ball

Miller Moss has performed admirably this season after taking over as the starting quarterback, but he’s taken a ton of big hits behind an underwhelming USC offensive line.

According to Pro Football Focus, the Trojans rank 128th in pass-blocking and 119th in run-blocking. That won’t change against a Nittany Lions pass rush that ranks fifth in the country.

USC has plenty of big-play weapons at receiver, but Penn State has a stout coverage unit and ranks 17th in yards per dropback allowed this season. Cornerback A.J. Harris is a player to watch in this game. He has allowed zero touchdowns and a 32.9 passer rating in coverage this year.

Running back Woody Marks, a former transfer from Mississippi State, has had a solid start to the season with 468 rushing yards and four touchdowns, but this is the most challenging test he’s faced. PSU ranks in the top six nationally in EPA/rush and yards per carry allowed.

Penn State vs. USC pick

USC has faced a much more difficult schedule this season, and the Lincoln Riley offense will present new challenges with an efficient Moss under center.

However, the Trojans have struggled to match up in the trenches in Big Ten games, and the Nittany Lions should have a tremendous edge at the line of scrimmage.

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Betting on College Football?

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I’m expecting Penn State’s run game to take over against a vulnerable USC run defense, and if Moss has to play from behind, he’ll be under constant duress behind a struggling offensive line going up against an excellent pass rush. 

Best bet: Penn State -4.5 (-108, FanDuel)

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.