Overs in windy conditions, short road underdogs

Sports betting is more about science than it is about the actual game.

Sure, there’s gameplay and narrative that you can go by, but you can’t bet on those assertions alone.

There needs to be some mathematical backing for your bet.

Betting trends and systems are excellent examples of how to bet on the NFL.

These trends have a theory or a narrative thought up by the maker who uses a database, in this case, Action Labs, to gather the appropriate data to help track whether this is a profitable wagering system.

Below are a few examples that can help shed some light on why math is the cornerstone basis of profitable betting, with all data dating back to 2003.

All odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook.

2024 NFL betting trends to watch

Moneyline betting short early-season divisional round underdogs (94-94-2, +41.7 units, 22 percent return on investment)

The theory reads as follows, per Action Labs:

“Early in the season, the strength of teams is still relatively unknown. Divisional teams are familiar with what their opponents are trying to do and are more likely to pull off the upset.”

The qualifiers for the wager are underdogs of less than a touchdown in a division game during the first three weeks of the NFL regular season.

This season, we have several games that qualify here.

• Raiders (+135) at Chargers (Week 1)
• Colts (+115) vs. Texans (Week 1)
• Panthers (+164) at Saints (Week 1)
• Bills (-105) at Dolphins (Week 2, ‘Thursday Night Football’)
• Giants (+120) at Commanders (Week 2)
• Cardinals (+114) vs. Rams (Week 2)

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Betting on the NFL?

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Against the spread bets on road underdogs in low total games after a bad season (368-261-16, +92.67 units, 15 percent return on investment)

For this trend, Action Labs writes:

“This system looks to take advantage of the perceptions that the team may not be very good based on last season’s results. Small dogs, when the total isn’t too high, have covered at a very high rate, and we removed ‘Thursday Night Football’ games to avoid short turnarounds.”

Here are some early examples of spreads of less than a touchdown in games with totals under 50 points, where the underdog had a previous season win total of six or lower.

• Cardinals (+6) at Bills (Week 1)
• Commanders (+3) at Buccaneers (Week 1)
• Panthers (+4) at Saints (Week 1)
• Titans (+4.5) at Bears (Week1)
• Giants (+2.5) at Commanders (Week 2)

Betting on divisional Unders later in the season and excluding domed games, which often lead to higher scores (183-123-5, +50.59 units, 17 percent return on investment)

You would be wise to wager on November and December games to go under their projected total, but be aware that we are only targeting outdoor games here.

This means you’ll be betting nearly every late AFC North matchups to the Under, among many others.

A 17 percent return on investment since 2003 is tasty.