Opinion | Trump’s Tariffs Have Set Up a Trap for Mike Johnson and John Thune

After more than 100 days of President Trump marked by overreach and economic self-immolation, congressional Republicans need a reset to save their political fortunes. Representative Mike Johnson, the House speaker, is banking on a spending and tax cut package to provide that jolt, and numerous House committees are now working quickly to stitch together a bill he has pledged to deliver to Mr. Trump before Independence Day.

This “one big, beautiful bill,” as Mr. Trump has called it, contains most of the president’s legislative agenda. Indeed, the strategy is making the bill too big to fail, betting that wavering members will not be willing to vote against it and deliver the leader of their own party such a stinging defeat.

But what if it does pass and voters barely take notice?

The details are still being worked out, but the bill could include cuts to Medicaid, as well as funding increases for immigration enforcement and the military. But the heart of the bill is extending the 2017 tax law, primarily the reduced personal income tax rates. With the economy teetering from the president’s foolhardy use of tariffs, the administration has said extending the law is an urgent imperative that will calm markets and provide an economic boost.

The Republican congressional leaders, Senator John Thune and Mr. Johnson, should not talk themselves into believing that this bill will deliver Republicans from the effects of Mr. Trump’s tariffs. The leaders face converging political problems right now: All the party’s energy is directed toward passing this one bill, for which voters may not reward them, and the effort is likely keeping them from putting more pressure on Mr. Trump to stop the tariffs.

Many Republicans are hoping that the tax bill can blunt the economic damage caused by the Trump tariffs, but that is highly unlikely. The way Mr. Trump in particular is talking about the legislative package is doing them no favors. He and Republican leaders have sold the extension of the tax law as tax cuts “for everybody.” It will be “the biggest bill in the history of our country, in terms of tax cuts and regulation cuts and other things,” Mr. Trump said last month. But the reality is it’s no cut at all for most people. The rates they are preserving have been in place for more than seven years now.

In 2017, as counselor to House Speaker Paul Ryan, I helped pass the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. It was a significant achievement, I remain proud of it and I’ve worked with groups that want to extend it. The law made American businesses more competitive by permanently lowering the corporate tax rate and eliminating scores of unproductive carve outs for businesses. It simplified the individual tax code and brought meaningful relief to families in almost every tax bracket. The scale of its ultimate economic impact was muddied by Covid, but I have no doubt it contributed to the robust economy that preceded the pandemic.

Today, allowing the expiring provisions of the law to lapse would significantly raise taxes on families at a moment of cratering economic confidence. Congress should absolutely extend the law and prevent a tax increase on working Americans.

The political problem is there is little new here for voters. Despite Mr. Trump’s blitz of sweeping executive actions, there is a peculiar smallness to his legislative program. Congress has not been asked to enact a DOGE-like reorganization of the federal government or a new work force development initiative to prepare us for the reshoring of American manufacturing. The president has proposed a handful of new tax breaks, like on tips, overtime pay and for those on Social Security. But those policies are likely to be narrow.

Even if making the income tax rates permanent provides a degree of economic certainty and encourages investment, that is simply no match for the blowtorch the president is taking to the economy with his tariff regime. And Democrats have made clear that they will try to make Republicans pay a price for cutting Medicaid — perhaps the most tangible policy change that some Americans will feel.

In 2018, voters largely overlooked the tax cuts Republicans had just passed; Democrats retook the House majority in the congressional midterms that year.

With only a slim majority today, Republicans face a challenge holding the House and maintaining unified G.O.P. control. History is not on their side. Every president since Bill Clinton, except George W. Bush after 9/11, saw his party lose control of the House in the first midterm of his presidency. To defy history and keep control of the House, Republicans will need to persuade voters they are working on the cost of living and creating a humming economy.

The president, of course, is moving us in the other direction, raising costs and battering markets with tariffs. And many economists warn that the worst impacts of the tariffs, higher prices and empty shelves, won’t arrive until this summer — just in time to further overshadow the potential passage of the president’s tax cuts.

One obvious answer to this developing problem would be for congressional leaders to pressure Mr. Trump to back down from his trade policy or, God forbid, take back Congress’s constitutional authority over tariffs.

Here, Mr. Thune and Mr. Johnson face a political dilemma, verging on a trap. They have shied away from criticizing Mr. Trump’s trade policy, likely because they will require his political muscle to get the tax extension through Congress. But this has allowed the president to continue down a destructive path for the economy and for their majorities in Congress. The economy is not the only thing that matters in politics, but it’s the first thing that matters. Without a stable economic footing to run on, House members in battleground districts face a perilous path to re-election.

It may seem early to be worrying about midterm elections, but the coming weeks will determine what, if anything, Republicans will have to show voters for granting them unified control of Washington.

Passing a bill to prevent tax rates from going up is a necessary action. But congressional leaders should not kid themselves. Unless they — or the markets — can convince the president to back down on tariffs, this “one big beautiful bill” may feel more like thin gruel to voters.

Brendan Buck, a communications strategist, was a counselor to Paul Ryan and a press secretary for John Boehner when they were speakers of the House.

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