Opinion | Rafael Correa’s Shadow and Why Ecuador Can’t Move On

I was selling tickets for the end-of-year play at my daughter’s school in June when my phone started buzzing nonstop. People were calling and texting to ask if I was OK. Rafael Correa, the former president of Ecuador, had just posted on the social media platform X criticizing an interview I gave to El País in which I said his political party was struggling to counter the rising popularity of the current president, Daniel Noboa.

Mr. Correa, known for his low tolerance of criticism, wrote from exile in Belgium: “Does anyone know who Caroline Ávila is?” It was a signal to his millions of followers. Within minutes I became the center of a digital firestorm — with posts defending my work, as well as posts attacking me and the journalist who wrote the El País story. That day, I truly understood the full weight of Mr. Correa’s enduring influence in Ecuador.

While not even living in the country, Mr. Correa remains one of the most influential — and polarizing — figures in Ecuadorean politics. His presence is sustained not only by his supporters but also by his adversaries, who can’t seem to stop talking about him but have failed to construct a compelling alternative. Mainly, they have simply dismissed Mr. Correa as a relic of the past. That seems only to have strengthened his grip on the people.

Mr. Correa governed Ecuador from 2007 to 2017. His administration presided over a surge in public investment fueled by large oil revenues and Chinese loans, which both financed ambitious infrastructure projects and expanded access to health care and education. For many Ecuadoreans, these were years of stability and a strong state presence. But during Mr. Correa’s presidency, the concentration of executive power, the erosion of institutional checks and balances and repeated attacks on journalists and opposition leaders also sparked serious concerns about democratic backsliding.

He has been living in self-imposed exile in Belgium since 2017, which granted him political asylum in 2022. He’s been convicted on corruption charges in Ecuador and sentenced to eight years in prison there.

Mr. Correa has been legally barred from running for president again, but he still leads Ecuador’s largest political party and maintains a powerful digital presence. With over one million followers on TikTok and four million on X, Mr. Correa continues to shape Ecuador’s political discourse. On TikTok he comments on current events, criticizes the government and defends his administration’s legacy, often using humor and sharp language to connect with younger audiences. He promotes his party’s priorities and messaging, reinforcing his role as a strong political force.

On Sunday, Ecuadoreans go to the polls in the second round of a presidential election. By all indications, Mr. Correa’s influence is unlikely to wane, whatever the result. Neither of the two candidates seems ready to offer a vision bold and coherent enough to replace the one he left behind.

Mr. Correa promised certainty in uncertain times, but critics argue that his government weakened the rule of law and set troubling precedents. Today this dual legacy — of material progress for some and institutional fragility for others — remains central to his lasting influence.

Three presidents have followed Mr. Correa’s left-wing government: Lenín Moreno, Guillermo Lasso and the incumbent, Mr. Noboa. The latter two were on the right of the political aisle, and Mr. Moreno — who had been Mr. Correa’s vice president and then his successor — promptly shifted to the right after taking office. Meanwhile, the country’s situation has worsened. The poverty rate rose from 21.5 percent in December 2017 to 28 percent in December 2024. Homicide rates soared from 5.6 per 100,000 people at the end of 2016 to 38.76 per 100,000 people at the end of 2024. In the absence of credible leadership, many voters look back at Mr. Correa’s years with longing.

The candidates in Sunday’s election are Mr. Noboa, a 37-year-old businessman, and Luisa González, a former lawmaker and Mr. Correa’s chosen successor. It’s a tight race that reflects the country’s deep political divide. In 2023 Mr. Noboa ran and beat Ms. González, helped by support from a coalition of anti-Correa forces.

Ms. González is likely to benefit from nostalgia for the Correa years; most of the former president’s supporters are expected to vote for her. She echoes Mr. Correa’s centralized approach to security policy and advocates a strong state role in law enforcement. However, her platform lacks clear proposals on judicial reform and institutional safeguards. She has offered few specifics on how to strengthen judicial independence or coordinate with international partners — critical omissions, given the transnational nature of the organized crime networks currently destabilizing Ecuador.

One of Mr. Noboa’s main electoral challenges is the turbulence that has afflicted his administration. He has maintained a publicly contentious relationship with his vice president, and a major oil field negotiation was abruptly canceled amid public outcry over a lack of transparency. His administration has faced accusations of authoritarianism for its reliance on increasing militarization to combat crime, particularly when four children were found dead shortly after their detention by a military patrol.

To move forward, the country must offer voters something they haven’t seen in years: Ecuadoreans want security, but not at the cost of military repression. They want a strong economy, but not at the price of corruption or impunity. They want social justice, but not in exchange for political loyalty.

The country must have a stronger intelligence department for criminal investigations, supported by an independent judicial system. The new president should prioritize investing in education and youth reintegration programs to prevent recruitment into organized crime. Mr. Correa’s model promotes a strong state as the only route to social well-being, but Ecuador can demonstrate that a transparent, efficient state is equally capable of growth and equity.

That Sunday at my daughter’s school, when people online reacted so quickly and widely to Mr. Correa’s post, I realized how far his reach still extends. But something else happened, too. The public outcry in defense of my work was strong enough that Mr. Correa deleted the post and relayed an apology. He didn’t know me or my work as an academic and independent analyst. Apparently, for him, it was strange that someone could exist outside the political divide.

In Ecuador, you’re either with Mr. Correa or against him. Anything else is viewed as suspicious. But that’s exactly the trap the country needs to escape. To truly move past his legacy, a leader must inspire a new vision of the state. Until that happens, Ecuador will remain a nation caught between memory and possibility.

Caroline Ávila Nieto is an Ecuadorean academic and researcher with a Ph.D. in communications. She teaches at the University of Cuenca, the University of Azuay and Simón Bolívar Andean University. Her research focuses on political communication and the critical understanding of electoral and governmental processes in Ecuador. She lives in Cuenca, Ecuador.

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