Opinion | Donald Trump Is Backed by the Business Elite

Over lunch last week with a friend of mine — a major technology investor who has been an ardent Democrat — the talk quickly turned to politics. Like many businessmen, he refuses to air his views publicly to avoid drawing fire. In private, he’s more forthcoming.

“I’m willing to sacrifice small things for larger gains,” he told me, referring to President Trump. “I’m a fan of the ideas; I’m not always a fan of the execution.” For him, the “macro trumps the micro.”

The “macro” was a reference to the main factor that drove centrist businessmen toward Mr. Trump in 2024: a belief that both the spending and the regulatory tilt of the Biden administration were out of control. And they resented how Joe Biden kept bashing big companies. This animus was so intense that even the strong economic gains of the past four years couldn’t get most of them to back Kamala Harris.

While very few businessmen have been publicly praising the president and his actions, in private, many of them voice support for him. I thought the chaos of the past month — the unqualified cabinet appointments, the cozying up to Russia, and perhaps most of all, the tariffs — might cause regret in the business community. I’ve certainly seen concerns.

But many, maybe even most, of the people I’m talking to in private are still quietly cheering his move-fast-and-break-things approach — even if they are starting to feel doubts about specific issues, particularly Ukraine and tariffs.

One Wall Street executive told me that Mr. Trump remains better than any of the alternatives. Another — citing Elon Musk’s government shake-up — said he likes what he sees so much, he now regrets voting for Ms. Harris.

It wasn’t just that this group resented Mr. Biden’s intrusive regulatory policies. They didn’t like diversity, equity and inclusion policies either — or anything they derisively described to me as “woke stuff.” Now executives and bankers alike (my circles tilt a bit toward Wall Street) are celebrating early signs of a reversal.

The business community is also heartened by the number of corporate executives who have been brought into the administration, in stark contrast to the Biden team, which was almost bereft of such individuals. That includes Mr. Musk, one of the most successful entrepreneurs in history (although his personal qualities, like Mr. Trump’s, are often considered distasteful). Of course, for some, like the crypto crowd, there’s a lot of money at stake.

To be clear, many of these businessmen’s move to Mr. Trump is more out of unhappiness with his predecessor than enthusiasm for him. A number reluctantly chose him after championing other candidates, such as Nikki Haley, and Mr. Trump’s continued flood of appalling actions, like his abrupt firing of several top military officers or embrace of Vladimir Putin of Russia, may well undermine approval of the administration in the business community. Among some prominent chief executives, it already has.

But at least so far, my anecdotal reporting about Mr. Trump’s enduring support is matched with broader gleanings. For one thing, despite recent lurches, the stock market notched another record just over a week ago, and is still above its level on Election Day, reflecting general investor optimism about America’s economic future. For another, the Conference Board just reported that confidence among chief executives has reached its highest level in three years.

I could not disagree more strongly with my circle. I’m sympathetic to the criticisms of the Biden-Harris administration for missing the boat on inflation, for interfering with business too much and for pushing some social issues that were way out of step with the country. But under no circumstances could I have voted for Mr. Trump, who is bent on dismantling the government while favoring the rich, and who is imbued with despicable personal attributes.

Even if you focus only on the economy, Mr. Trump’s circus of commotion may collide with worrying signs.

While the economy continues to grow, inflation in January came in above expectations and remains stubbornly at 3 percent, higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. That has caused central bank leaders to suggest that further interest rate decreases will have to wait.

Mr. Trump’s key policies, such as his oft-threatened tariffs, could drive inflation higher still. As the cost of imported goods rise, domestic producers of similar items may take advantage of the opportunity and raise their prices, too.

Many in the business community shrug this off. Noting that Mr. Trump has already suspended his last attempt to impose tariffs, they argue that these moves are mostly negotiating ploys. I’m not so sure. The rapidity and ferocity with which Mr. Trump is issuing his threats makes me worry that a substantial portion of those tariffs will be instituted (as he insisted last week will be the case with levies on imports from Mexico and Canada).

Meanwhile, restricting immigration and deporting millions of immigrants would tighten an already tight labor market, pushing up wages — which also pushes up prices.

Mr. Trump’s huge fiscal package, which has begun its journey through Congress, could juice inflation even more. In its current form, his budget would add $2.8 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years on top of the more than $20 trillion of new debt already projected. Higher deficits put upward pressure on prices and interest rates.

I believe the business community may also be disappointed on other fronts. For example, Andrew Ferguson, Mr. Trump’s new head of the Federal Trade Commission, recently suggested that the Biden-era clampdown on mergers and acquisitions may not ease as much as business hopes.

Unlike business, consumers may already be grasping the import of these issues. While business optimism has been rising, the mood of consumers has been darkening. Consumer confidence dropped in February at its fastest pace in three and a half years, to its lowest level since June 2024, and expectations for inflation over the coming 12 months rose to 6 percent, the highest level since May 2023.

Mr. Trump has also begun to slide in the polls and is now underwater, with more Americans expressing disapproval than approval.

We are in an economic tug of war between the optimism felt by investors and executives and the worrisome potentialities of Mr. Trump’s incoherent policies. My business friends may yet come to regret their support for the president.

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