NFL Week 6 picks, odds

Football handicapper Sean Treppedi is in his first season in The Post’s NFL Bettor’s Guide. 

PATRIOTS (+7) Over Texans

I always expect a galvanizing response following an embarrassing loss and a quarterback change.

It’s easy to fade a rookie under center against a Texans team that just conquered Josh Allen and the Bills, just keep in mind that as a favorite of three points or more, C.J. Stroud is 2-7 ATS — the worst mark in the NFL since he was drafted in 2023.

He’s never closed as a seven-point favorite. 

The verdict will be out on Drake Maye, but he’s supported by a backfield that has produced 4.9 yards per attempt.

Fortunately, the Texans are tied for having coughed up the eighth-most rushing yards.

Oddsmakers are simply overvaluing Houston, which is 1-3-1 ATS with two one-possession wins, against the Bears and Jaguars. 

Broncos (+2.5) Over CHARGERS

Maybe we don’t know Bo.

The rookie is rolling off his third straight win, a game in which he completed 70 percent of his passes and collected three total touchdowns.

He hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 2, and now he draws a Chargers secondary that is allowing the league’s second-friendliest completion rate of 72.5 percent. 

This Chargers offense is a fragile work in progress.

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Betting on the NFL?

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Jim Harbaugh loves milking the clock, operating the slowest offense in seconds per play.

The Broncos can cause disruption with the second-most aggressive blitz in the NFL.

As underdogs, Sean Payton’s teams have covered at a 61 percent rate dating back to 1990. Since 2019, he’s 5-1 straight up against teams off extended rest when his is not. 

Last week: 1-1. Cardinals (W). Seahawks (L)
Season: 6-4.