NFL Week 4 odds, picks

Football handicapper Sean Treppedi is in his first season in The Post’s NFL Bettor’s Guide. 

Minnesota Vikings (+3) Over GREEN BAY PACKERS

The market thinks the 3-0 Vikings are overvalued heading into their divisional road matchup against Green Bay, and I’ll stand alongside the 82 percent of public bettors in disagreement. 

Sam Darnold may still have more to prove, but it’s undeniable he’s fit hand-in-glove inside Kevin O’Connell’s system with the NFL’s second-highest passer rating at 117.3.

Besides, it’s a revenge game for Aaron Jones, who’s off to a start of 5.4 yards per carry.

Even if Jordan Love does return, it’s not into the friendliest circumstance: Brian Flores has propelled Minnesota to the No. 1 unit in defensive DVOA thanks to leading in quarterback pressures, sacks and having yielded just two passing touchdowns thus far. 

Tennessee Titans-MIAMI DOLPHINS Under 36.5

Settle in for a Monday night paint-dryer.

Will Levis’ boneheaded decision-making has cost Tennessee the most turnovers in football, and I don’t expect much more production from Miami’s Tyler Huntley, who steps in under center off the practice squad.

Both secondaries have quietly defended responsibly as Tennessee has allowed the least air yards while Miami ranks in the top 10 of yards after catch allowed. 

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Betting on the NFL?

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The Dolphins only lead all season came on a game-winning field goal in Week 1, and they have scored the fewest points in the NFL (33).

Now let’s pit that against a Tennessee offense that ranks 31st in offensive EPA per play.

Since 2020, the Under has cashed 74% percent in games with totals of 37 or less. 

Last week: 2-0. Panthers (W), Giants-Browns Under (W)
Season: 4-2.