Lawler, Ryan ahead of rivals in Hudson Valley as Election Day nears: new poll

Two Hudson Valley House incumbents — Republican Rep. Mike Lawler and Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan — lead their rivals in polls heading into the election campaign’s home stretch, thanks to big gender gaps in their favor.

Freshman Lawler leads ex-Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones 49% to 44% among likely voters in the 17th District encompassing Rockland, Putnam and parts of Westchester and Dutchess counties, the Emerson College Poll/Pix 11/The Hill survey released Tuesday found.

The remaining 7% of voters queried late last week were still undecided or supporting a minor party candidate.

Lawler’s five-point lead was fueled by a huge 27-point advantage among men, while Jones was ahead by 16 points among women.

Since earlier this month, Lawler’s support has increased by four points, from 45% to 49%, while Jones’ support has held at 44%.

In the 18th district, encompassing Dutchess, Orange and Ulster counties, Ryan was backed by 51% of likely voters, while Republican rival Alison Esposito had the support of 42%.

Ryan led Esposito by a huge 20-point margin among women in a district where abortion has been a big campaign issue.

They were splitting the vote among men.

The incumbent’s support increased by three points, from 48% to 51%, while Esposito’s support decreased by a point, compared to a prior Emerson survey earlier this month.

“There is a stark gender divide in the 17th district, with men breaking for Lawler by 27 points, and women breaking by 16 for Jones, while men are more divided in the 18th district: 47% support Esposito and 46% support Ryan. Women break for Ryan by 20 points,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

Both incumbents appear more popular than their rivals — 52% of voters had a favorable view of Lawler compared to 44% who had a favorable view of Jones.

Similarly, 52% have a favorable view of incumbent Ryan, while 41% have a favorable opinion of Esposito.

“We’re glad to see this poll confirm what many in NY-17 already know — that Congressman Lawler is well-positioned for re-election and voters here are rejecting the outrageous lies against Mike currently polluting the airwaves and voters’ mailboxes,” said Lawler campaign spokesman Nate Soule. 

At the top of the ticket, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are competitive.

In the 17th district, 50% support Harris and 47% support Trump, within the poll’s 4.4 percentage margin of error.

In the 18th district, 49% support Donald Trump for president, 48% back Kamala Harris.

The top issues for voters in the 17th district are the economy, at 30%, followed by immigration (20%), housing affordability (15%), crime (11%), and threats to democracy (10%).

The top issues for voters in the 18th district are also the economy, at 32%, followed by immigration (19%), housing affordability (14%), threats to democracy (11%), and crime (8%).

Voters were also asked if they are better off financially now than they were a year ago, about the same, or worse off.

Half of voters in the 17th district say they are worse off financially today than a year ago, while 32% say they are doing about the same, and 18% are better off.

In the 18th, 48% in the 18th district are worse off, 35% about the same, and 18% better off.

The Emerson College/Pix11/The Hill New York 17th and 18th district surveys were conducted from October 24-26 via cell phone text message and online.

In the 17th district, 475 likely voters participated and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

In the 18th district, 450 likely voters were queried with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.