Fixtures to look out for with permutations for Man City, Real Madrid, Villa and more

Only leaders Liverpool and second-placed Barcelona are guaranteed a place in the Champions League knockout stage before the final matchday in the inaugural league phase.

A total of 16 teams have something to play for, including Arsenal, Aston Villa, Celtic and a Manchester City side who started as favourites to win the competition but are at risk of elimination at the first hurdle.

Paris Saint-Germain, who were also among the pre-season favourites for European glory, and former champions Benfica and PSV are among the sides who could also be knocked out when the closing round of matches kick off at 8pm GMT on Wednesday.

Here are six storylines to look out for in the Matchday 8 Champions League fixtures, as well as a look at the permutations.

Man City vs Brugge: Champions League must-win

City’s collapse at PSG last Wednesday means they have taken one point from their last four Champions League matches, occupy the highest elimination position and are guaranteed to go out if they do not beat Club Brugge at home.

The good news for City is that – as long as they win – they will go through because they only need to catch one of the teams above them to progress to a two-legged knockout phase play-off to reach the round of 16.

They are certain to achieve that because they are three points behind Brugge with a superior goal difference, but the second-placed side in Belgium look tricky, arriving on a four-game unbeaten European run that has included wins at home to Villa and Sporting and a 1-1 draw at Celtic.

Despite enduring their worst ever run under manager Pep Guardiola since November, depleted City looked closer to their formidable best in beating out-of-form Chelsea 3-1 at home on Saturday to extend their unbeaten domestic run to seven matches.

Even if City are ahead, the second half could be a nervy one. Guardiola’s side were held at home by Feyenoord after being 3-0 ahead in the 74th minute on Matchday 5, and led 2-0 in the 55th minute of their 4-2 defeat at the Parc des Princes.

Bellingham’s backheel flick 😮‍💨
Barcola’s nutmeg, pace and pull-back 😍

Two outrageous assists 🥵🥵#UCLassists | @Lays_football pic.twitter.com/Aecxiurz40

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) January 22, 2025

Aston Villa vs Celtic: British sides looking forward

A fine debut in the modern Champions League for Villa had a blip last Tuesday when a 1-0 defeat at Monaco put them outside the automatic places for the round of 16 on goal difference.

A win, then, would put them in a strong position to automatically go through and avoid a play-off, while a draw would suffice in the unlikely-looking event of Leverkusen losing at home to eliminated Sparta Prague.

Celtic need to win and hope several results go in their favour to progress automatically, but they are guaranteed a play-off place and a positive result could ensure they finish in the top eight of the 16 play-off teams, potentially helping them avoid a meeting with stronger opponents on paper.

Villa will be wary of opponents who are 10 points clear in Scotland and have secured draws at Atalanta and Dinamo Zagreb, although they may have enjoyed analysing Celtic’s 7-1 thrashing at Borussia Dortmund on Matchday 2 and the fact that their only defeat in their last 26 games came in a 3-0 loss at Rangers on January 2.

Scotland captain John McGinn could make his first start following a hamstring injury, having coming on as a substitute in Villa’s 1-1 draw at home to West Ham on Saturday.

Some of the saves in Wednesday’s #UCL games were UNREAL! 🤯

Which of these 6 was the best stop for you?! ⛔@QatarAirways | #LetsFly pic.twitter.com/41JCbyTAAp

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) January 22, 2025

Stuttgart vs PSG: Pair push for play-offs

PSG’s comeback against City was their second successive Champions League victory and eased the pressure on manager Luis Enrique around their European campaign.

A trip to opponents level on points with them and desperate for a result to extend their own campaign, however, represents a potentially tough league phase finale for the runaway French leaders, who will hope to end the evening as one of the top eight play-off teams rather than reflecting on a shock.

They lost 1-0 at Bayern Munich in a repeat of the 2019/20 Champions League final result on their last trip to Germany on Matchday 5 and will expect better against opponents 16 points behind Die Roten in Germany.

Stuttgart played their first Champions League home game in 14 years when they drew with Sparta Prague at the start of a mixed campaign at home, also losing 2-0 to knockout stage contenders Atalanta and winning 5-1 against Young Boys, who have lost seven out of seven.

Luis Enrique rested the likes of Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos and Joao Neves among six changes in PSG’s 1-1 draw at home to Reims on Saturday, with Bradley Barcola, Vitinha and Willian Pacho also likely to return from the start this time.

😳#UCL pic.twitter.com/GKNJRg6ntw

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) January 27, 2025

PSV vs Liverpool: Perfect league phase for Reds?

Before Manchester City completed the feat last season, Liverpool’s 2021/22 squad had been the only English side ever to enjoy a perfect Champions League group stage.

With two extra games in the initial phase under the new competition format, it would be another hugely impressive achievement for Arne Slot in his first season in charge if the Reds can win all of their league phase games.

On a more practical level, defeat for Liverpool would allow Barcelona to overtake them by winning at home to Atalanta, but Slot has pointed out that luck will play its part in whether finishing first or second proves more favourable in terms of round-of-16 opponents.

With that observation by Slot in mind, Liverpool may be tempted to rest the likes of top scorer Mohamed Salah ahead of their trip to in-form Bournemouth on Saturday (3pm).

Top of the Dutch Eredivisie, PSV ended a run of three straight away defeats in all competitions with a 3-2 win at eliminated Crvena zvezda and are all but mathematically assured of a play-off place, while they would be relying on a string of other results to have hope of going through automatically with victory.

Slot won one of his last seven meetings with PSV during his tenure at former club Feyenoord. The Farmers’ absentees include first-choice defender Ryan Flamingo as they prepare to encounter the Dutchman again.

Curtis 🅰️
Salah ⚽️#UCL pic.twitter.com/wiAnUuOC9j

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) January 23, 2025

Real Madrid and Bayern in chasing pack

Real Madrid are the most successful team in the history of the competition and the 15-time champions alleviated any doubt over their place inside the top 24 by winning 5-1 at home to Salzburg on Matchday 7.

The Spanish leaders join six-time champions Bayern Munich, two-time winners Juventus and 2023/24 finalists Dortmund among the teams who must win to have a chance of going through automatically rather than entering the play-offs.

Madrid have the most difficult-looking fixture of those four teams, being the only one of the quartet to play away when they travel to a Brest side a point ahead of them and with designs of their own on a top-eight finish.

Dortmund host Shakhtar Donetsk, who need to win and hope for a sizeable goal difference swing if they are to stay in the competition, and Bayern host Slovan Bratislava, who are yet to earn a point.

Juve have won one of their last seven games in all competitions and are at home to two-time champions Benfica, who have a slim chance of going out if they lose.

🇧🇷🌟#UCL pic.twitter.com/ut4q01HNdh

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) January 22, 2025

Arsenal vs Girona: Gunners could sign off in style

Arsenal are on the brink of reaching the knockout stage for a second consecutive season, with only a hefty defeat at eliminated Girona and heavy wins for the six teams immediately below them offering any chance of the Gunners entering the play-offs.

The 2005/06 finalists are six points behind Liverpool in the Premier League and host Manchester City on Sunday (4.30pm), so manager Mikel Arteta could be contemplating resting players, while Ben White, Mikel Merino and Martin Odegaard may not be rushed back from injuries and, in the case of the captain, illness.

Depending on how Arteta views being seeded higher in the draw, he may also be targeting a victory for second place, which would also require Barca to lose and a goal difference swing of four.

Competition debutants Girona have lost their last three matches and their predicament has been compounded by injury doubts at the back over regulars Paulo Gazzaniga – who was in goal when Tottenham won 2-0 at Arsenal in the 2018/19 EFL Cup – Miguel Gutierrez and Daley Blind.

Eighth-placed in Spain, they have lost four in a row in Europe and gone more than six hours without scoring since their 2-0 win at home to Slovan on Matchday 3, giving them their only Champions League points so far.

Professional performance at home ⚡️

📺 Enjoy the highlights of our win against Dinamo Zagreb now 👇 pic.twitter.com/GNAPxuJilA

— Arsenal (@Arsenal) January 23, 2025

When are the Champions League knockout phase play-offs?

Teams finishing between the top and bottom eight will enter two-legged knockout phase play-off ties.

The first legs will take place on February 11 and 12, followed by the return matches a week later. The draw to decide the ties will be held on January 31.

When is the Champions League round of 16?

The top eight sides and the play-off winners will take part in round of 16 first-leg matches on March 4 and 5, followed by the second legs a week later.

The draw for the round of 16, quarter-finals and semi-finals will take place on February 21.