Fantasy baseball’s best draft picks in first half go beyond stars
By day’s end, we will be at the intermission of a wild season in which three of the top-10 fantasy players have already suffered season-ending injuries and several other top picks are struggling.
Rookie flamethrower Paul Skenes is baffling opponents, some veterans have managed to turn back the clock, and unheralded players have come out of nowhere to, in some ways, carry fantasy squads in the first half.
Below is a group of players who have provided massive returns on their average draft positions in order to make Roto Rage’s third Bargain Bin All-Star team:
First base
AL: Josh Naylor, Guardians
Average is mediocre, but already has career-best marks in homers, runs scored and slugging percentage. He ranks fourth in RBIs, seventh in homers and his xBA indicates he could get better in the second half.
NL: Bryce Harper, Phillies
MVP-caliber numbers (.298, 20 HRs, 58 RBIs, 52 runs, .964 OPS) from a player who was a mid-to late-second-round pick.
Second base
AL: Jordan Westburg, Orioles
First-time All-Star hit .280 with 15 homers, 50 RBIs, 46 runs, six stolen bases and a .838 OPS in his first 86 games after entering the season with a 278.33 ADP.
NL: Luis Garcia Jr., Nationals
Double-digit homers and stolen bases from a player with a 411 ADP.
Shortstop
AL: Carlos Correa, Twins
Made his first All-Star team since 2021 after hitting .310 (his best mark since 2017) with 13 homers, 47 RBIs, 50 runs and a .905 OPS in his first 74 games.
NL: Jackson Merrill, Padres
A late-round pick (292.53 ADP), the rookie entered the weekend hitting .285 with 12 homers, 46 RBIs, 40 runs and 10 stolen bases.
Third base
AL: Jose Ramirez, Guardians
Hitting .272 while ranking second in RBIs, fifth in homers and 20th in OPS while stealing 18 bases. Solid return for a second-round pick.
NL: Alec Bohm, Phillies
Has as many doubles as he had in 2023 and ranks fourth in RBIs.
Catcher
AL: Logan O’Hoppe, Angels
Among qualified catchers, he ranks fourth in runs, fifth in average and OBP, sixth in hits and homers, and ninth in RBIs. He also has the second-best OPS and slugging percentage.
NL: Patrick Bailey, Giants
Has provided solid, steady production despite having a 324.75 ADP. He isn’t spectacular, but he has been consistent.
Outfield
AL: Aaron Judge, Yankees
Roto Rage’s first-half MVP wasn’t a top-three pick. That makes him a bargain.
AL: Brent Rooker, A’s
Despite having the second-worst strikeout percentage in the league, he hit .279 with 18 homers, 55 RBIs, a top-10 slugging percentage and the 13th-best OPS. Has outperformed his 258.1 ADP, despite some cold stretches (you know, like hitting .226 in June).
AL: Jarren Duran, Red Sox
With a 170.55 ADP, he entered the weekend ranked fifth in the majors in stolen bases and hits, and 12th in runs scored.
NL: Jurickson Profar, Padres
To say he was on no one’s radar might be the understatement of the year (439.4 ADP), but he is hitting .311 with 14 homers, 59 RBIs, 52 runs scored, five stolen bases and a .891 OPS, the 15th-best mark in the majors.
NL: Heliot Ramos, Giants
See Profar, only his ADP was 1,093.6 — and he made the All-Star team after hitting .300 with 14 homers, 45 RBIs and .909 OPS in his first 57 games.
NL: Brenton Doyle, Rockies
Cheap power and speed from a late-round flier who can attribute most of his .277 average to hitting .346 with a .995 OPS at Coors Field.
Utility
AL: Gunnar Henderson, Orioles
A second- or third-round pick for an MVP candidate who entered Friday ranked first in runs, third in homers, fourth in OPS, seventh in hits and 12th in RBIs. He also had 14 stolen bases while hitting .288.
NL: Marcell Ozuna, Braves
A mid-round pick who is leading the NL in RBIs while ranking second in homers, third in slugging percentage and OPS, sixth in hits, seventh in average and 12th in runs.
Starting pitchers
AL: Garrett Crochet, White Sox
Has the best strikeout and swinging-strike rates in the majors, a top-10 opponents’ average and a top-20 ERA, walk rate and WHIP. His xERA, FIP and xFIP are nearly a half-run below his actual ERA, which is a sign he has been unlucky. Not bad for a guy with a 323.53 ASP.
AL: Jack Flaherty, Tigers
Might not be racking up the wins, but he has the seventh-lowest walk rate, the fourth-highest strikeout rate, the seventh-highest swinging-strike rate and owns a top-20 ERA. He has found his 2019 form again after struggling from 2020-23.
AL: Seth Lugo, Royals
A former Met having success with another team? What an oddity! Second-half regression is likely, but having the second-most wins and second-lowest ERA in the majors is impressive. Allowed more than two earned runs to score three times in 19 starts.
AL: Tanner Houck, Red Sox
Owns a 2.68 ERA, .219 opponents’ average and has allowed more than three earned runs twice in his first 18 starts.
AL: Luis Gil, Yankees
Despite a rough three-game stretch from June 20-July 3 and having the worst walk rate in the majors, he has already made good on his 361.3 ADP while owning a top-11 strikeout rate, the 22nd-best ERA and the lowest opponents’ average in the majors.
NL: Paul Skenes, Pirates
Since being called up, he has a 1.90 ERA in 11 starts and allowed two runs or fewer in nine of those outings. He has been pulled from no-hit bids twice and has struck out seven or more in 10 of his 11 starts (including two 11-strikeout efforts). He has been dominant.
NL: Chris Sale, Braves
Leading the league in wins, ranks in the top five in strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate and WHIP, and is in the top 10 in ERA and opponents’ average. He also has one of the lowest walk rates in the majors, issuing just 1.89 walks per nine.
NL: Reynaldo Lopez, Braves
Though he has one of the higher walk rates in the majors, he went from a late-round flier to having the league’s best ERA in the first half after making only one start in the previous two seasons.
NL: Ranger Suarez, Phillies
Past two starts have been ugly, but he allowed more than three earned runs once in his first 16 starts. He has the third-most wins and ranked sixth in ERA, 11th in WHIP, 14th in walk rate and 20th in opponents’ average.
Betting on Baseball?
NL: Gavin Stone, Dodgers
Has gotten lucky (3.77 xERA, 3.58 FIP, 4.08 xFIP), but don’t think anyone who drafted him (305.45 ADP) or picked him up thought he would go 9-3 with a 3.26 ERA in the first half.
Closer
AL: Mason Miller, A’s
Not only does his fastball average 100.9 mph, but the 6-foot-5 rookie ranks in the top 1 percent in xBA, xSLG, WOBA, xWOBA, strikeout rate and xERA. Save opportunities aren’t plentiful in Oakland, but he still had 15 before Friday and opponents were hitting .146 against him.
NL: Ryan Helsley, Cardinals
From April 1-July 5, he was 2-3 with 31 saves in 32 chances while owning a 2.03 ERA, .192 opponents’ average and 16 percent swinging-strike rate.
Big hits
Reese Olson SP, Tigers
Owns a 2.40 ERA and 31-6 strikeout-walk rate in his past five starts, and is 3-0 with a .202 opponents’ average and 14 percent swinging-strike rate in that span.
Brenton Doyle OF, Rockies
Entered the month batting .253, but has raised his average to .277 after hitting .485 with six homers, 12 RBIs, a stolen bases and a 1.767 OPS.
Michael Wacha SP, Royals
Allowed more than two earned runs in one of his past nine starts, going 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA, .204 opponents’ average and 47 strikeouts.
Rowdy Tellez 1B, Pirates
Had at least one hit in 21 of his past 30 games, hitting .351 with seven homers, 22 RBIs, 16 runs, a stolen base and a 1.023 OPS.
Big whiffs
Carlos Rodon SP, Yankees
Since his last win, June 10, he is 0-5 with a 10.57 ERA, .350 opponents’ average and 10 walks. He has allowed eight home runs, 36 hits and 27 earned runs over his past 23 innings.
David Fry C/1B/OF, Guardians
Was hitting .352 when he hit his last homer May 31, but entered Friday hitting .288 after going 20-for-93 (.215) with 23 strikeouts in 30 games since.
Taylor Ward OF, Angels
Entered the weekend hitting .173 with no homers, 17 strikeouts and a .483 OPS over his previous 14 games.
Ezequiel Tovar SS, Rockies
Had four hits in his first 40 at-bats (.100) this month. He struck out 17 times with no homers, one RBI, one run scored and a .244 OPS.
Check swings
– And now, some first-half awards. Tarik Skubal, who already has a career-best 10 wins, is the Cy Young winner. He ranks in the top 10 in strikeout and walk rates, and has the second-best ERA and swinging-strike rate among qualified starters. He also has the fifth-lowest opponents’ average and the best WHIP in the majors.
– The Least Valuable Player is Arizona’s Corbin Carroll. Despite ranking in the top 20 in runs scored and leading the NL in triples, he entered Friday hitting .209 with three homers, 25 RBIs and a .296 on-base percentage, which is the 24th-worst in the league. He hit .289 with 18 homers, 48 RBIs, 26 stolen bases and a .366 OBP in the first half in 2023. This is not what was expected from a top-five pick.
– Rookie of the Year: Paul Skenes. Period. The end.
– The Anti-Cy Young goes to Kevin Gausman. Drafted as the fifth-best starter, he allowed more than three earned runs in six of his first 19 starts and heads into the break with a 4.50 ERA. He has his lowest strikeout and swinging strike rates since 2018.
Team name of the week
Rece’s Pieces
Submitted by Joe Carola
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