Expert Week 6 NFL betting picks

Our NFL betting expert brings you his best Ravens vs. Giants predictions and picks for their NFL Week 6 showdown, which is live Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on CBS.

The Baltimore Ravens can thank Justin Tucker for another game-winning field goal in Week 5. This week they’ll look to tighten their grip on the AFC North lead with another win, this time against the surprising New York Giants (4-1), who are back from London with a victory over the Green Bay Packers in hand.

Giants vs. Ravens predictions

Giants vs. Ravens picks and analysis

The Ravens (3-2) walked away with a 19-17 victory over the visiting Cincinnati Bengals last week thanks to Justin Tucker’s dead-center, 43-yard field goal as time expired. The win put them one game ahead of Cincinnati and Cleveland in their division. Now Lamar Jackson and company head to MetLife Stadium for the second time this season. The Ravens beat the Jets there 24-9 in the season opener and are 2-0 on the road this year.

Big Blue beat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week. The Giants haven’t had a start this strong since they opened the 2009 season 5-0, and between new coach Brian Daboll and the resurgence of Saquon Barkley, fans are believers.

Giants +5.5

Call up the Guinness Book of World Records, people. We need to see if 5.5 points makes New York the largest 4-1 home underdog in NFL history.

Never mind — the Giants are, in fact, six-point underdogs at BetMGM and DraftKings as of Thursday morning. Vegas clearly favors Jackson and the Baltimore offense over Daniel Jones and the Giants, not to mention the Ravens’ defense has played solidly in the past few weeks.

But it’s still a pretty eye-opening surprise to see New York, fresh off a neutral-field victory over the Packers that legitimized them as a playoff contender in the eyes of many, be shown this disrespect.

The only other concern here is the Giants’ travel schedule. They’re back on the field this week after their trip to London — in years past, teams playing in Europe had the benefit of a bye week directly after the trip to recuperate. No doubt the Ravens have an easier week in terms of keeping their minds and bodies fresh.

Still, facing that spread, we’ll take the Giants to keep it close if not win outright. Daboll’s swagger and Barkley’s legs have helped them close out games with authority, while we haven’t forgotten Baltimore’s late-game meltdowns against Miami and Buffalo.

Our Pick: Giants to cover +5.5

Betting on the NFL?

Under 45 total points

When Giants-Packers surpassed 41.5 total points, it was the first time since Week 16 of last season that a Giants game hit the over. They’d had five unders and one push in the time since.

New York isn’t beating teams with dynamic offense. Last week’s 27 points marked the club’s highest-scoring output of the year. Barkley is good for 100 yards a game and either he, Jones or Gary Brightwell might score a rushing touchdown from the red zone, but that’s not going to run up the score on anyone.

Though Daboll came from a pass-happy attack with Josh Allen in Buffalo, he’s working with what he has in New York. The Giants have run 30 more times than they’ve passed, and Giants players have combined for only six receiving plays of 20 yards or more. All of this is a recipe for low-scoring affairs.

The Ravens have shown they can drop 37-38 points on an opponent, but in the past two weeks they’ve averaged 19.5. Jackson’s five interceptions are tied for fourth-most in the league and are liable to kill would-be scoring drives.

Our Pick: Under 45 points scored

Highest scoring quarter: Third quarter +460

This prop is a fun change-of-pace, as it asks you to bet on which quarter will see the most points scored between the teams. Any of the four options promise a decent-to-great payout if you’re right.

The Giants are slow starters on offense. They’ve averaged just 6.6 points in the first halves of games thus far. The third quarter has been their highest-scoring quarter this year – a combined 36 points, including 13 in their Week 1 comeback against Tennessee and 10 in Week 3 against the Cowboys.

The Ravens neither start nor finish games particularly strongly. Baltimore has scored just one fourth-quarter touchdown in five games and are averaging just 3 points per fourth quarter. The middle of the game is where they’re strongest, scoring 48 combined points in second quarters and 41 total points in third quarters.

In a game like this, featuring two teams who love to run the ball, expect there to be an early feeling-out period before they really start to strike blows against one another after halftime.

Our Pick: Third quarter to be the highest-scoring quarter +460

Giants vs. Ravens odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Team	Spread	Money line	Total Points 45
Ravens	(-5.5) -110	-267	Over -110
Giants	(+5.5) -110	+215	Under -110