College football picks, bets for Friday

Last week, Kansas State allowed Tulane — a program experiencing much year-over-year upheaval — to generate 8.8 yards per play, including 10.4 yards per dropback.

The Wave generated an impressive nine explosive passing plays in a 34-27 home loss to the Wildcats. 

Naturally, I’m worried about Kansas State’s defense, especially against Arizona on Friday.

Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan are among college football’s best quarterback-wideout combinations, already having combined for 315 yards and four touchdowns on 12 receptions (26.3 YPR) in the first two weeks. 

Behind these two, Arizona ranks 17th nationally in EPA per dropback. The duo could carve up Kansas State. 

I don’t love Arizona’s defense, and Kansas State could run all over an inexperienced front seven.

But Arizona’s veteran secondary could keep KSU from creating chunk passing plays at will. 

Kansas State may be a tad overvalued. It’s 19-8 since the start of 2022 but needed a +22 turnover differential to get there.

Turnover luck is bound to regress. 

---

Betting on College Football?

---

Ultimately, I expect Arizona to throw it all over the field while Kansas State attempts to keep up with its rush-heavy attack.

I’m unsure if anyone can cover a touchdown spread in that game script. 

THE PLAY: Arizona +7 (-105, DraftKings).

---

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.