What are CC0 NFTs, and why are they important?

As the Web3 world has largely promoted transparency and openness with code, NFT creators and teams are also opting for the same with art. However, that is just the beginning of the journey, and these nonfungible token creators and communities must realize that.

CC0 can sometimes be portrayed as a logical conclusion where the NFT creators hand over the process of building on their creation to their community and beyond. Some NFT collections have had several derivative projects promoting the culture of the NFT almost as brand extensions. However, declaring a project as CC0 is just the beginning.

NFT project teams and creators who take the CC0 route must actively promote the use of the brand and onboard other creators and projects to build brand extensions to their NFT collections. 

No open-source software project could have scaled without a strong codebase. Similarly, CC0 NFT projects need a strong creator community to spread the word, get inspired by the original nonfungible token collections and make them household brands. This is only possible through the conscious community-building efforts of the NFT project teams.

Therefore, by going down the CC0 route, NFT creators have almost reduced the burden on its nonfungible tokenholders to promote the brand. Instead, they have a more considerable responsibility with their NFT holders to onboard brand, product and art extensions to their nonfungible tokens.

For instance, if a Nike product line chooses to use a Moonbirds image on their shoes, that increases the awareness of Moonbirds within the retail audience, thereby improving the brand outreach. However, these top-tier brand partnerships must be often forged by the NFT project teams.



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Texas authorities object to Voyager’s disclosure statement in its current form

The Texas State Securities Board (SSB) and the Texas Department of Banking (DOB) raised an objection in court against Voyager Digital’s disclosure statement, questioning the various methodologies and calculations used to estimate the fair market value of the bankrupt exchange’s crypto assets.

In a pleading filed with the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York, the attorneys for the SSB and DOB objected to the order approving the adequacy of Voyager’s amended disclosure statement. Voyager Digital filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in New York in July 2022, while proposing a recovery plan for investors.

The Texas state authorities argued that Voyager’s disclosure statement, which asserted that creditors might get a 70% return, fails to explain the methodology used to calculate the average coin prices, adding that:

“The Debtors (Voyager) have never been licensed by the SSB or the DOB and faces very large fines and penalties for operating without a license. FTX is also not licensed to do business in the State of Texas.”

The attorneys further highlighted that with the court that crypto exchange FTX offers a product similar to ‘Voyager Earn Program,’ a Voyager offering that has been subject to cease-and-desist orders from multiple states in the US.

As a resolution, the SSB and DOB seek the denial of Voyager’s disclosure statement in its current form. Moreover, it demands that Voyager discloses the methodology and calculations used to determine its fair market value for funds recovery.

On Oct. 5, FTX US secured the winning bid for the assets of Voyager. According to Voyager, the bid was made up of the fair market value of its crypto holdings “at a to-be-determined date in the future” estimated to be around $1.3 billion, along with $111 million in “incremental value.”

The hearing date for the case has been slated for Oct. 19 at the time of the writing.

Related: Senator Warren leads the charge against energy consumption claims on Texas crypto miners

On Sept. 30, the SSB, DOB and the Vermont Department of Financial Regulation objected to crypto lender Celsius’ plans to sell off its stablecoin holdings, arguing that the firm could use the resultant capital to resume operating in violation of state laws.

Celsius reached out to the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York, seeking permission to sell its stablecoin holdings, reportedly worth $23 million.

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Mango Market’s DAO forum set to approve $47M settlement with hacker

Following a $117 million exploit on Oct. 11, the Mango Markets community is set to make a deal with its hacker, allowing the hacker to keep $47 million as a bug bounty, according to the decentralized finance (DeFI) protocol governance forum. 

The proposed terms reveal that $67 million of the stolen tokens will be returned, while $47 million will be kept by the hacker. 98% of the voters, or 291 million tokens, have voted in favor of the deal, which also stipulates that Mango Markets will not pursue criminal charges on the case.

With the quorum reached, the voting is likely to happen on Oct. 15. The proposal stated:

“The funds sent by you and the mango DAO treasury will be used to cover any remaining bad debt in the protocol. All mango depositors will be made whole. By voting for this proposal, mango token holders agree to pay off the bad debt with the treasury, and waive any potential claims against accounts with bad debt, and will not pursue any criminal investigations or freezing of funds once the tokens are sent back as described above.”

On Twitter, members of the community reacted to the development:

The proposal has been questioned at the governance forum as well, as stated by one voter:

“Agree 100% that making users funds whole ASAP is the top priority but a $50m “bug bounty” is ridiculous. At most the exploiter should get their costs back ($15m?) plus $10m. $10m whitehat bounty is what was offered to the $600m wormhole hacker. Mango can negotiate better than this, especially given the exploiter is essentially doxed.”

The hacker performed the attack by manipulating the value of the MNGO native token collateral, then taking out “massive loans” from Mango’s treasury. After draining the funds, the hacker demanded a settlement, filling a proposal on the Mango Market’s decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) forum asking for $70 million at that time. 

Moreover, the hacker has voted for this proposal using millions of tokens stolen from the exploit. On Oct. 14, the proposal reached the required quorum to pass. In exchange for the settlement, the hacker requests that users who vote in favor of the proposal agree to pay the bounty, pay off the bad debt with the treasury, waive any potential claims against accounts with bad debt and not pursue any criminal investigation or the freezing of funds.



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Academy Award winner Anthony Hopkins sells out NFT collection in minutes

Oscar award-winning actor Sir Anthony Hopkins has sold out his debut NFT collection “The Eternal Collection” in under 10 minutes. 

The collection, created in partnership with Orange Comet Inc, an NFT and Web3-focused design agency, features 1000 original cinematic art pieces inspired by different performances within the actor’s long career.

According to the collection’s description on OpenSea, the body of work “conceptualizes an interpretation of the vast character archetypes Sir Anthony Hopkins has portrayed over his illustrious film career, drawing its potent energy from his stimulating body of art.”

The creative visuals and animations with names like, “The Jester”, “The Lover”, “The Ruler”, “The Rebel”, “The Giver”, and “The Eternal”. Each represents the various archetypal characters played throughout the Hollywood actor’s career.

The NFT, and Web3-focused design agency, Orange Comet Inc alleged that the collection’s sellout was the fastest in OpenSea’s history, though Cointelegraph was unable to confirm the claim prior to publication.

The celebrated actor thanked the NFT community in a tweet stating that he still couldn’t believe the news of the collection’s sell-out.

The unique 990 one-of-one NFT images come with randomly selected utilities ranging from receiving autographed dreamscapes art books featuring the actor’s paintings and drawings, to intimate discussions with Anothony Hopkins via zoom, and random selections of personalized NFTs with a message from Hopkins airdropped into their wallets.

The project tweeted that this is the fastest-selling NFT collection on OpenSea, but Cointelegraph was unable to verify the accuracy of this claim prior to publication.



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3 emerging crypto trends to keep an eye on while Bitcoin price consolidates

This week, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price took a tumble as a hotter-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) report showed high inflation remains a persistent challenge despite a wave of interest rate hikes from the United States Federal Reserve. Interestingly, the market’s negative reaction to a high CPI print seemed priced in by investors, and BTC’s and Ether’s (ETH) prices reclaimed all of their intraday losses to close the day in the black. 

A quick look at Bitcoin’s market structure shows that even with the post-CPI print drop, the price continues to trade in the same price range it has been in for the past 122 days. Adding to this dynamic, Cointelegraph market analyst Ray Salmond reported on a unique situation where Bitcoin’s futures open interest is at a record high, while its volatility is also near record lows.

These factors, along with other indicators, have historically preceded explosive price movements, but history will also show that predicting the direction of these moves is nearly impossible.

So, aside from multiple metrics hinting that a decisive price move is brewing, Bitcoin is still doing more of the same thing it’s done for the past 4.5 months. With that being the case, it is perhaps time to start looking elsewhere for emerging trends and possible opportunities.

Here are a few data points that I’ve continued to be intrigued by.

New rotations will emerge

ETH’s price has lost its luster in the now post-Merge era, and the asset now reflects the bearish trend that dominates the rest of the market. Since the Merge, ETH’s price is down 30% from its $2,000 high, and it’s likely that a good deal of the speculative capital that backed the bullish Merge narrative is now in stablecoins looking for the next investment opportunity.

Aside from ETH being an asymmetrical performer in the last four months, Cosmos (ATOM) also defied the market downtrend by posting a monster rally from $5.40 to $16.85. As covered thoroughly by Cointelegraph, oversold conditions, along with the hype of Cosmos 2.0, backed the bullish price action seen in the altcoin, but this chart continues to capture my imagination.

ATOM emissions schedule (old vs. new). Source: Cosmos Hub

According to the revised Cosmos white paper, the current supply of ATOM will dynamically adjust based on the supply and demand of its staking. As shown in the chart above, when Cosmos 2.0 “kicks in” for the first 10 months, issuance of new ATOM tokens is high, but after the 36th month, the asset becomes deflationary.

ATOM/USDT 3-day chart. Source: TradingView

From the vantage point of technical analysis, ATOM’s price appears to have hit a local top as the months leading up to Cosmos 2.0 were a “buy the rumor, sell the news” type of event, but it will be interesting to see what transpires with ATOM’s price as the market approaches month 20 in the diagram above.

Related: Price analysis 10/14: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, MATIC

Keep an eye on Ethereum Network activity

Ether emissions plummet post Merge. Source: Delphi Digital

Since the Ethereum Merge, Ether emissions have dropped by 97%, and while the price has pulled back significantly, over the coming months, investors might keep an eye on Ethereum network activity, developments with ETH staking across decentralized finance (DeFi) and institutional products, along with any spikes in gas (connected to network activity).

Ether supply dynamics. Source: Delphi Digital

While the price could succumb to bearish pressure in the short term, if the market begins to turn around if new trends trigger increased use of DeFi products, it’s possible that ETH’s price could react positively to those developments.

Post-Merge, BTC price action will likely remain king

While new trends across various altcoins may emerge, it’s important to remember the wider context in which crypto assets exist. Global economies are on the rocks, and persistently high inflation remains an issue in the United States and many other countries. Bond prices are whipsawing, and a looming debt crisis makes its presence known on a daily basis. Risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies are incredibly volatile, and even the strongest price trends in crypto (whether backed by fundamentals or not) are subject to the whimsy of macro factors such as equities markets, geopolitics and other market events that impact investors’ sentiment.

Keeping this in mind, Bitcoin remains the largest asset by market capitalization within the crypto sector, and any sharp moves from BTC’s price are bound to support or suppress the micro trends that might be gaining traction in the market. There is still the possibility of a sharp downside in Bitcoin’s price, so traders are encouraged to calculate investment size according to their own appetite for risk, and while multiple metrics might support opening long positions in various crypto assets, it still seems too early to fully ape in.

This newsletter was written by Big Smokey, the author of The Humble Pontificator Substack and resident newsletter author at Cointelegraph. Each Friday, Big Smokey will write market insights, trending how-tos, analyses and early-bird research on potential emerging trends within the crypto market.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Fed governor Waller says US CBDC would not enhance things the world loves about US fiat

A United States central bank digital currency (CBDC) would not enhance the qualities of the U.S. fiat dollar that foreign companies value most, U.S. Federal Reserve Board governor Christopher Waller in a speech released Oct. 14. CBDC skeptic Waller took a look at the question through the lens of national security at a symposium held at Harvard University. Waller had a more favorable view of dollar-backed stablecoin.

The role of the U.S. dollar worldwide is an area where economics, CBDCs, and national security dovetail, Waller said. The indisputable primacy of the U.S. dollar in the world brings benefits to the United States and the other countries where the dollar plays a role in their economies or as a reserve currency.

This primacy is not due to technological factors, and so the introduction of a U.S. CBDC would not impact the reasons for that primacy, Waller argued. He expressed doubt that “the purported shifting payments landscape as a result of the growth of digital assets, particularly CBDCs” is a threat to the U.S. dollar’s status in the world making settlements or storing value, although foreign CBDCs might make gains against the dollar as a medium of transaction.

On the home front:

“A U.S. CBDC is unlikely to dramatically reshape the liquidity or depth of U.S. capital markets. It is unlikely to affect the openness of the U.S. economy, reconfigure trust in U.S. institutions, or deepen America’s commitment to the rule of law.”

This contrasts with the role of stablecoin, in Waller’s view. He dismissed suggestions that stablecoins could threaten the effectiveness of economic policy with the simple statement “I don’t believe that to be the case.” Noting that “nearly all major stablecoins” are dollar denominated, Waller concluded, “U.S. monetary policy should affect the decision to hold stablecoins similar to the decision to hold [U.S.] currency.” Presumably, this would extend U.S. economic influence.

Related: Fed governor explains who needs crypto regulation and why demand for it is growing

Waller included sizable doses of both scholarship and opinion in his argument. He stated, “The factors driving the dollar’s role as a reserve currency are well researched and well demonstrated,” for example. Other elements of his argument were self-produced. “I am highly skeptical that a CBDC on its own could sufficiently reduce the traditional payment frictions” and “I am unsure whether even a large issuance of a stablecoin could have anything more than a marginal effect” on the role of the U.S. dollar, he said.

Waller also said, “I remain open to the arguments advanced by others in this space.” He has stated his positions on CBDCs and stablecoins before and advanced other arguments against a U.S. CBDC.



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SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, MATIC

The United States consumer price index (CPI) increased 8.2% annually in September, beating economists’ expectations of an 8.1% rise. The CPI print lived up to its hype and caused a sharp, but short-term increase in volatile risk assets. 

The S&P 500 oscillated inside its widest trading range since 2020 and Bitcoin (BTC) also witnessed a large intraday range of more than $1,323 on Oct. 13. However, Bitcoin still could not shake out of the $18,125 to $20,500 range it has been stuck in for the past several days.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Both the U.S. equities markets and Bitcoin tried to extend their recovery on Oct. 14 but the higher levels attracted selling, indicating that the bears have not yet given up.

Could the increased volatility culminate with a breakout to the upside or will it start the next leg of the downtrend?

Let’s study the charts of the S&P 500 index, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and the major cryptocurrencies to find out.

SPX

The S&P 500 index (SPX) gapped down on Oct. 13 and dropped to 3,491 but lower levels attracted huge buying by the bulls. That may have caught several aggressive bears on the wrong paw and they might have scrambled to cover their short positions. That propelled the index back above the breakdown level of 3,636.

SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buyers tried to extend the recovery on Oct. 14, but the bears had other plans. The sellers vigorously defended the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) (3,715), indicating that the sentiment remains negative and relief rallies are being sold into.

The bears will try to sink the index to 3,491 which is an important level to keep an eye on. If this support cracks, the index could dive to 3,325.

Alternatively, if the index rebounds off the support zone between 3,636 and 3,491, it will suggest that bulls may be accumulating on dips. Buyers will then attempt to overcome the barrier at the 20-day EMA and challenge the downtrend line. If this resistance collapses, it will signal that the corrective phase may be over.

DXY

The U.S. dollar index turned down from 113.92 on Oct. 13 but the bulls arrested the decline at the 20-day EMA (112). This suggests that the sentiment remains positive and traders are viewing the dips as a buying opportunity.

DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls will try to pierce the overhead resistance zone between $113.92 and $114.77. An acceptance above this zone will signal the resumption of the uptrend. The index could then rally to $117.14.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the bears will try to pull the index below the 20-day EMA. A break below this support will be the first indication that the bullish momentum is weakening.

The index could then decline to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) (109). A trend change will be signaled if bears sink the price below the uptrend line.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin sliced through the support at $18,843 on Oct. 13 and dipped close to $18,125. This level attracted buying which started a sharp recovery as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buyers pushed the price above the moving averages on Oct. 14 but the up-move is facing stiff resistance at the downtrend line. The 20-day EMA ($19,466) is flattening out and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the midpoint, indicating equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

This balance will tilt in favor of the bulls if they push and sustain the price above the overhead resistance at $20,500. The BTC/USDT pair could then rally to $22,800. The bears are expected to mount a stiff resistance at this level.

If the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, the bears will again try to pull the pair below $18,843 and challenge the support at $18,125.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) broke below the support at $1,220 on Oct. 13 but the bears could not keep the price down. The bulls vigorously purchased the dip, forming a hammer candlestick pattern.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buyers have sustained the positive momentum on Oct. 14 and are trying to push the price above the overhead zone between the 20-day EMA ($1,331) and the resistance line of the triangle.

If they can pull it off, the ETH/USDT pair could attempt a rally to the downtrend line of the descending channel pattern. The bulls will have to clear this obstacle to signal a potential trend change.

The bears are likely to have other plans. They will attempt to halt the recovery in the overhead zone and then try to pull the pair below $1,190.

BNB/USDT

BNB has been range-bound between $300 and $258 for the past several days. In a range, traders usually buy near the support and sell close to the resistance.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

That is what happened on Oct. 13 as the bulls purchased the dip to $258. Buyers tried to push the price above the moving averages on Oct. 14 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears are selling near resistance levels. The bears will again try to pull the price below $258 and extend the decline to $216.

On the contrary, if the price turns up and breaks above the moving averages, the BNB/USDT pair could attempt a rally to the overhead resistance at $300. A break above this level could set the stage for a rally to $338.

XRP/USDT

XRP (XRP) broke below the 20-day EMA ($0.47) on Oct. 13 but the bears could not sustain the lower levels. The bulls purchased the dip and pushed the price back above the 20-day EMA.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating advantage to buyers. The bulls will attempt to push the price above the overhead resistance at $0.56. If that happens, the XRP/USDT pair could resume its uptrend and rally toward the next overhead resistance at $0.66.

The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-day EMA. That would indicate that traders may be booking profits at higher levels. The pair could then slide to the breakout level of $0.41.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) found buying support at $0.35 on Oct. 13 but the bulls are struggling to push the price above the breakdown level of $0.40 on Oct. 14.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($0.41) continues to slope down and the RSI is in the oversold territory, indicating that bears are in control. If the price continues lower and breaks below $0.35, it will suggest that bears have flipped $0.40 into resistance. That could increase the likelihood of a drop to $0.33.

This bearish view could be negated in the near term if buyers push the price above the moving averages. That will indicate strong accumulation at lower levels. The ADA/USDT pair could then climb to the downtrend line.

Related: Bitcoin bear market will last ‘2-3 months max’ —Interview with BTC analyst Philip Swift

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) plunged below the $30 support on Oct. 13 but the bears could not build upon this strength and sink the price to the vital support at $26. The bulls arrested the drop at $27.87 and pushed the price back above $30.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buyers tried to extend the positive momentum on Oct. 14 but ran into heavy selling near the downtrend line as seen from the long wick on the candlestick. The bears will now again try to pull the price below $30 and extend the decline to $26.

If bulls want to invalidate this bearish view, they will have to quickly push the SOL/USDT pair above the downtrend line. That could clear the path for a possible rally to $35.50 and thereafter to $39 where the bears may again offer a strong resistance.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) rebounded off the strong support near $0.06 on Oct. 13, indicating that the bulls are defending the level aggressively. Buyers are trying to propel the price above the moving averages on Oct. 14.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they manage to do that, the DOGE/USDT pair could rise to $0.07. This level is again likely to act as a strong resistance but if bulls push the price above it, the pair could attempt a rally to the overhead level of $0.09.

Contrarily, if the price turns down from the moving averages, the bears will again attempt to sink the price below the support near $0.06. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if it cracks, the pair could retest the June low near $0.05.

MATIC/USDT

The long tail on Polygon’s (MATIC) Oct. 13 candlestick shows that bulls are aggressively buying near the $0.71 to $0.69 support zone. Buyers continued their momentum on Oct. 14 and tried to push the price above the downtrend line but the bears held their ground.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The flattish moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand. This equilibrium could tilt in favor of the buyers if the price rises above the downtrend line. The MATIC/USDT pair could then rise to $0.86 and if this level is crossed, the next stop could be $0.94.

On the other hand, if the price reverses direction from the downtrend line, it will show that bears continue to sell on rallies. The pair could then remain stuck between the downtrend line and the support at $0.69.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin bear market will last ‘2-3 months max’ —Interview with BTC analyst Philip Swift

Bitcoin (BTC) may see more pain in the near future, but the bulk of the bear market is already “likely” behind it.

That is one of many conclusions from Philip Swift, the popular on-chain analyst whose data resource, LookIntoBitcoin, tracks many of the best-known Bitcoin market indicators.

Swift, who together with analyst Filbfilb is also a co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, believes that despite current price pressure, there is not long to go until Bitcoin exits its latest macro downtrend.

In a fresh interview with Cointelegraph, Swift revealed insights into what the data is telling analysts — and what traders should pay attention to as a result.

How long will the average hodler need to wait until the tide turns and Bitcoin comes storming back from two-year lows?

Cointelegraph (CT): You’ve pointed out that some on-chain metrics such as HODL Waves and RHODL Ratio are hinting at a BTC bottom. Could you expand on this? Are you confident that history will repeat this cycle?

Philip Swift (PS): I believe we are now at the point of maximum opportunity for Bitcoin. There are numerous key metrics on LookIntoBitcoin that indicate we are at major cycle lows.

We are seeing the percentage of long-term holders peak (1yr HODL Wave), which typically happens in the depths of bear market as these long-term holders don’t want to take profit until price moves higher.

This has the effect of restricting available supply in the market, which can cause price to increase when demand does eventually kick back in.

Bitcoin HODL Waves chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

We are also seeing metrics like RHODL Ratio dip into their accumulation zones, which shows the extent to which euphoria has now been drained from the market. This removal of positive sentiment is necessary for a bottom range to form for BTC.

RHODL Ratio is highlighting that the cost basis of recent Bitcoin purchases is significantly lower than prices paid 1–2 years ago when the market was clearly euphoric and expecting +$100k for Bitcoin. So it is able to tell us when the market has reset in preparation for the next cycle to start.

Bitcoin RHODL ratio chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

CT: How is this bear market different from previous BTC cycles? Is there any silver lining?

PS: I was around for the 2018/19 bear market and it actually feels pretty similar. All the tourists have left and you just have the committed passionate crypto people remaining in the space. These people will benefit the most in the next bull run — as long as they don’t go crazy trading with leverage.

In terms of silver linings, I have a couple! First, we are actually a fair way through the market cycle, and likely through the majority of this bear market already. The chart below shows Bitcoin performance each cycle since the halvening, and we are already around the capitulation points of the previous two cycles.

Bitcoin bull market comparison chart. Source: Philip Swift/ Decentrader

Second, the macro context is very different now. While it has been painful for bulls to see Bitcoin and crypto so heavily correlated to struggling traditional markets, I believe we are soon going to see a bid on Bitcoin as confidence in (major) governments crosses downwards beyond a point of no return.

I believe this lack of confidence in governments and their currencies will create a rush towards private “hard” assets, with Bitcoin being a major beneficiary of that trend in 2023.

CT: What other key on-chain metrics would you also recommend to keep an eye on to spot the bottom?

PS: Be wary of Twitter personalities showing Bitcoin on-chain charts cut by exotic/ weird variables. Such data very rarely adds any genuine value to the story shown by the major key metrics and these personalities just do it as a way to grab attention rather than genuinely trying to help people.

Two metrics that are particularly useful in the current market conditions:

The MVRV Z-Score is an important and widely used metric for Bitcoin. It shows the extremes of Bitcoin price moving above or below its realized price. Realized price is the average cost basis of all Bitcoin purchased. So it can be thought of as an approximate break-even level for the market. Price only ever dips below that level in extreme bear market conditions.

When it does, the indicator on this chart dips into the green “accumulation” zone. We are currently in that zone, which suggests that these may be very good levels for the strategic long-term investor to accumulate more Bitcoin.

Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

The Puell Multiple Looks at miner revenues versus their historical norms. When the indicator dips into the green accumulation band, like it is now, it shows many miners are under significant stress. This often occurs at major cycle lows for Bitcoin. This indicator suggests we are close to a major cycle low for Bitcoin if we have not already bottomed.

Bitcoin Puell Multiple chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

CT: Your fellow analyst Filbfilb expects BTC to reverse course in Q1 2023. Do you agree?

PS: Yes, I do. I think traditional markets probably have a bit more downturn going into early 2023. At worst, I see crypto having a tough time until then, so probably another 2–3 months max. But I think the majority of fear will soon switch toward governments and their currencies — rightly so. Therefore I do expect private assets like Bitcoin to outperform in 2023 and surprise many of the doomers who are saying Bitcoin has failed and is going to zero.

Related: Bitcoin analyst who called 2018 bottom warns ‘bad winter’ may see $10K BTC

CT: October is a historically bad month for stocks — not so much for Bitcoin. How long do you expect BTC to be in lockstep with risk-on assets and what will be the catalyst?

PS: Bitcoin has been a useful forward-looking risk indicator for the markets throughout much of 2022. What will change in 2023 is that market participants will appreciate [that] most of the risk in fact lies with governments, not with traditionally defined “risk” assets. As a result, I expect a narrative shift that will benefit Bitcoin next year.

The actions of the United Kingdom’s government around their mini-budget two weeks ago were a key turning point for that potential narrative shift. Markets showed they were prepared to show their disapproval of poor policy and incompetence. I expect that trend to accelerate not only for the U.K. but in other countries also.

CT: Are you surprised at Ethereum’s poor performance post-Merge? Are you bullish on ETH longer term with its supply-burning mechanisms?

PS: [Ether] (ETH) had a strong short-term narrative with the Merge, but it was within the context of a global bear market. So it is not surprising that its price performance has been lackluster. Ultimately, the overall market conditions dominated, which was to be expected.

Long term, though, Ethereum is set up to do exceptionally well. It is a critical component of Web3, which is growing exponentially. So I am very bullish on Ethereum over the next couple of years.

CT: What is the best jurisdiction for a Bitcoin/ crypto trader today?

PS: Somewhere that is low-tax and crypto-friendly. I personally think Singapore is great and there is a growing crypto scene here, which is good fun too. I have friends who are in Bali, which also sounds great and is more affordable.

CT: Anything you would like to add?

PS: Resist any temptation to quit crypto near the bottom of the bear market. Just be patient and use some good tools to help manage your emotions.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Smart contract-enabled insurance holds promise, but can it be scaled?

A new insurance world is coming where smart contracts replace insurance documents, blockchain “oracles” supplant claim adjusters, and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) take over traditional insurance carriers. Millions of poor farmers in Africa and Asia will be eligible for coverages like crop insurance too, whereas before, they were too poor and too dispersed to justify the cost of underwriting.

That is the vision, anyway, on display in the recent Smartcon 2022, a two-day conference that sought to provide “exclusive insights into the next generation of Web3 innovation.”

Subsistence farms, where families basically live off what they grow and almost nothing is left over, account for as much as two-thirds of the developing world’s three billion rural people, according to the United Nations. They almost never qualify for insurance coverage and most probably wouldn’t know what to do if it were offered.

“In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, where I grew up in Kenya, insurance is basically unavailable. 3% have access to it, but nobody buys it, basically,” Lemonade Foundation’s Roy Confino explained at the two-day New York City event.

The Lemonade Foundation, a nonprofit founded by United States insurer Lemonade, is behind the recent formation of the Lemonade Crypto Climate Coalition, a group that believes “blockchain has the potential to pool that risk together” and “basically solve the core problem that has inhibited the scale of insurance in the developing world for profit services and that is cost,” said Confino at Smartcon 2022. Founding members also include Hanover Re, Avalanche, Chainlink, DAOstack, Etherisc, Pula and Tomorrow.io.

Insurance is problematic in poor nations for many reasons. It can’t be easily distributed because there are hardly any local insurance agents or brokers, and historically insurance is “sold,” not “bought.” Also, insurance claims can’t be validated without great expense because, typically, there aren’t any claims adjusters on the scene to make damage assessments. This renders underwriting un-economic.

But, it need not necessarily remain that way. Parametric insurance models can potentially cut producer costs by automating many traditional insurance processes, making it profitable to underwrite those previously deemed uninsurable. Sometimes called “index insurance,” these models insure a policyholder against a specific event by paying a set amount based on an event’s magnitude rather than the losses incurred.

For example, if rain hasn’t fallen in a certain predetermined region in Kenya for three weeks, a blockchain “oracle” — it could be a local weather station — automatically sends a message to a smart contract that remotely triggers a payout to the policyholding farmer’s smartphone. It bypasses the claims adjustment process entirely. It doesn’t matter whether an individual farmer’s field is damaged. All policyholders in the area are paid. 

Crop insurance is a good use case for parametric models because many of the forces that can damage crops can be objectively measured, such as rainfall, wind speeds, temperatures and others.

Self-executing smart contracts also ensure that payouts for weather disasters and the like are almost immediate, noted Sid Jha, founder and CEO at Arbol — a parametric insurance provider — and this is especially important in the developing world where many farmers live hand to mouth. “You don’t have customers waiting weeks, months who in many cases can go bankrupt waiting for an insurance check,” he said, speaking at a separate Smartcon 2022 session.

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Parametric insurance isn’t entirely new; it has been around for several decades. But, blockchain-enabled parametric insurance has just emerged in the last few years. Most, if not all, its use cases are still in the pilot stage. The Coalition, for instance, isn’t expecting to scale up its programs until next year.

Many believe that legacy insurance systems could stand some substantial improvement. “Traditional indemnity insurance has many disadvantages: it is slow, bureaucratic, constrained to home damages, and comes with significant uncertainty,” wrote Wharton School associate professor Susanna Berkouwer recently. She described a parametric hurricane insurance product that employs blockchain technology in the Commonwealth of Dominica. NASA-generated hurricane alerts touch off automated international bank transfers to policyholders’ bank accounts. Projects like these are worthy of further study in Berkouwer’s view.

Hindrances remain: Will farmers sign up?

Supplying the world’s subsistence farmers with affordable crop insurance and possibly other protections via chain-based parametric insurance faces some daunting obstacles, however. One is educating farmers in the complexities of insurance. There is really no way at present that this can be done easily by technology or automation alone. 

Tinka Koster and her colleagues at the Netherlands’ Wageningen University, for example, recently completed a review of the World Bank Group’s Global Index Insurance Facility’s (GIIF) engagement in Kenya. To increase index insurance take-up rates among African subsistence farmers, GIIF and others would need to boost “awareness, knowledge and understanding by the farmers about the insurance,” said Koster.

“The last-mile outreach is a key challenge for many services to smallholder farmers, including index insurance,” Koster told Cointelegraph in emailed responses coordinated with team colleagues Marcel van Asseldonk, Cor Wattel and Haki Pamuk. “Technology can help bridge part of this gap, but technology alone is insufficient.”

“Sales and product understanding are huge costs in often remote and difficult to reach places,” Leigh Johnson, assistant professor in the department of geography at the University of Oregon, told Cointelegraph. “Renewal rates are notoriously bad.”

“Many farmers need to see that insurance is a tool for managing risk and not for gambling on a certain outcome,” said Jha, who agreed that educating farmers on the need for risk management tools like insurance is critical. As Jha told Cointelegraph:

“When farmers are able to get access to some type of subsidized insurance provided by the government or an NGO, they become much more familiar and comfortable with the concept, and that education process becomes easier in terms of providing specialized coverage products that meet the unique needs of farmers.”

In GIIF’s Bima Pima product for Kenyan farmers, the World Bank Group program used village-based advisors (VBAs) to help distribute the insurance product — essentially taking the place of traditional insurance agents. The VBAs were paid monthly for their efforts. According to the Wageningen report, these advisers were “happy with the SMS messages and the direct premium payment. But they find it hard to convince farmers and are uncertain about the insurance pay-out because the product is so new.”

Does parametric insurance even need DLT technology?

If parametric insurance is going to succeed in emerging markets, does it even need blockchain technology? The World Bank Group’s GIIF parametric insurance projects in Africa, for instance, did not use blockchain technology. What exactly does index insurance lose if it doesn’t employ a decentralized digital ledger? 

“Blockchain is simply a tool,” Jha told Cointelegraph, and one can use many tools to get the same outcome. Still, the digital ledger’s immutability and auditability can build credibility for the program:

“What DLT’s do provide is trust in areas that generally tend to lack trust, and allow for possibly a more efficient micro payment system than what currently exists in some of these countries in terms of disbursing and collecting funds.” 

Johnson, on the other hand, comes down “squarely on the ‘no smart contracts’ camp, precisely because parametric contracts go wrong so often, and there is an important case for correcting these retroactively” in the interests of fairness and equity. 

In a 2021 article, Johnson noted that environmental estimates made by parametric market devices used to commodify risk “are frequently wrong, sometimes grossly so.” In the first season of R4’s Ethiopian program, “one of the most globally renowned programs insuring smallholder farmers against weather risk using parametric indices,” wrote Johnson, R4 made an ex gratia “voluntary donation” to teff farmers “following rain shortfalls that did not trigger the contract.” Such transfers later became “fairly routine.”

“I’m not sure how much information farmers would require re smart contracts/blockchain at the time of enrollment,” Johnson told Cointelegraph, “but one can imagine them being extremely skeptical of unknown monetary technologies and firms.”

If blockchain technology could raise farmers’ awareness and knowledge about insurance, added Koster, “then it would also help for further upscaling the index [parametric] insurance in African context.”

Still, this all might take some time. Jha was asked how long it might be before agricultural insurance can achieve widespread usage among subsistence farmers in the developing world in places like Southeast Asia or Africa — two years? Five years? Ten years?

“Probably ten years,” Jha told Cointelegraph, citing the challenges of education, cost and lack of data, i.e., “everything from a lack of weather stations, crop yield history, and lack of data on farming practices.”

Many farmers need to see that insurance is a viable tool for managing risk, and this is where self-executing smart contracts could provide a powerful example. If farmers see their neighbors being reimbursed immediately during an extreme weather event, they might consider purchasing an index policy themselves.

Government subsidies could help. “There is a lot of work that is needed in terms of making insurance more affordable so that underserved stakeholders who need these tools can access them,” said Jha, while Johnson added, “I think the best progress will come from wider state adoption of safety net programs using parametric solutions — that’s how you get coverage at scale.”

In terms of scaling, the World Bank’s GIIF has already made some progress. “The milestone of one million farmers insured has already been reached in Zambia, with the index insurance bundled with the subsidized fertilizer programme,” Koster said, while in Senegal, GIIF is currently reaching half a million farmers, with a similar number in Kenya with a government-supported program.

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“This shows that it is possible to reach significant numbers of smallholder farmers,” Koster told Cointelegraph, “but not without significant government support.” 

In sum, while parametric insurance models might enable insurance underwriters to pool risks, making it profitable to insure the previously uninsurable, and blockchain-enabled smart contracts can ensure that cash-strapped farmers received payouts during disasters almost immediately, much work still needs to be done in convincing financially unsophisticated and often distrustful farmers to sign up for such programs. Technology alone won’t do the trick, and state entities may need to get involved.

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El Salvador focused on bringing investment to Bitcoin City, says ambassador

El Salvador, which became the first nation to make Bitcoin (BTC) a legal tender in September last year, is currently focused on building a Bitcoin City. There have been several delays and disruptions in the plans since its announcement last year owing to the bear market-led investment drought and geo-political tensions.

Cointelegraph reporter Joseph Hall got in touch with Héctor Enrique Celarié Landaverde, the deputy ambassador of El Salvador to the Kingdom of the Netherlands, to get some insights into the country’s progress with its much-hyped project.

Landaverde told Cointelegraph that the government is following a “first come first serve” basis, where businesses that are early with their investment will get better profits. He explained:

“The dream of El Salvador is to have a Bitcoin City and from there to make our society bigger, stronger. We are trying to attract more and more investments to this area so we can develop these communities.”

The deputy ambassador noted that BTC use in the country has definitely made an impact on the impact and also invited people to the country to see for themselves how BTC is changing lives.

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The iconic Bitcoin City was announced in November last year; it would be partly funded by the sales of $1 billion Bitcoin volcano bonds, the world’s first cryptocurrency sovereign-debt product. The debt product was a center of attraction at the bull market’s peak. However, several delays in the past and a downturn in the bear market have cast a shadow of uncertainty.

Last month, Bitfinex chief technology officer Paolo Ardoino told Cointelegraph that they were awaiting a license of issuance from the government first, which would be granted after the passing of the digital securities bill that was slated for September. However, there hasn’t been any update on the launch of the Bitcoin bond mid-way through October.

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