Bahamas Bowl odds and pick

Seasoned bettors will know that weird stuff tends to happen at the Bahamas Bowl.

In fact, a few may shudder at the mere mention of the 2018 edition of this game between Florida International University (FIU) and Toledo, which has gone down in betting infamy thanks to a ridiculously bad beat for Under 57 bettors. 

In that contest, FIU led 28-25 with less than 50 seconds left and just needed a first down to end the game. Instead, FIU scored to make it 35-25 and gave the ball back to Toledo, who would hit a last-second Hail Mary pass to make it 35-31. Initially, the refs said that play ended the game, but they put two seconds back on the clock and allowed Toledo to kick the PAT, which burned basically every under ticket that was available from the time the market opened.

Will this year’s Bahamas Bowl bring more betting chaos? The game is slated to begin at 11:30 a.m. ET on Friday, being broadcasted on ESPN.

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Miami (Ohio) vs. UAB prediction

It’s hard to imagine a more appropriate way to begin bowl season than an 11:30 a.m. ET kick-off between a pair of 6-6 teams in the Bahamas. That’s right, baby, break out the Pina Coladas and sunblock because the UAB Blazers and Miami (Ohio) Redhawks are ready to get this party started. 

The first thing that stands out in this game is that bettors are dealing with a pretty big spread in a game with a low total. At the time of writing, UAB is a 10.5-point favorite but the Over/Under is sitting at just 44.5 points and has ticked down already.

And it makes sense that scoring could be at a premium in this contest. For one thing, the wind in the Bahamas looks like it could play a part in the passing game for both teams. At the time of writing, the forecast is calling for winds around 10 MPH. Still, Mother Nature is particularly unpredictable in the West Indies, so if you notice the total crash, you’ll know the wind is expected to pick up.

The on-field matchup also looks like it ticks a lot of boxes for a play on the under. 

For one thing, both of these offenses move at a snail’s pace — Miami ranks 109th in seconds per play, and UAB is 119th. Additionally, both coaching staffs want to keep the ball on the ground, which keeps the clock moving. UAB rushes the ball 62.8% of the time, which is the 10th-highest mark in the nation, while Miami ranks 25th at 58.8%. 

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Furthermore, neither offense seems to be set up to put up some crooked numbers on Friday. Miami’s offense ranks 99th in passing success rate, 129th in rushing success rate, and 111th in finishing drives so it won’t be able to take advantage of a pedestrian UAB defense, and the Blazers will be going up against a stout Redhawks unit that was 20th in rushing success rate and 10th in finishing drives. Miami struggled to stop the pass, but that shouldn’t be a huge deal against a team that runs the ball like it’s going out of style.

What better way to start bowl season than a bet on the Under 44.5 in a game in the Bahamas?

Miami (Ohio) vs. UAB pick

Under 44.5 (FanDuel)