Are Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth Sales Struggling? We Asked the Experts

Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth launched as a PlayStation 5 exclusive at the end of February and met with critical acclaim. IGN’s Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth review, for example, awarded Square Enix’s latest a 9/10. But since the game’s launch, an ongoing debate has emerged around its sales success — or lack of.

Square Enix has yet to announce a sales figure for Rebirth, the second game in a planned trilogy of remakes of the seminal Final Fantasy 7. This in itself is telling. The company has announced launch sales for recent Final Fantasy games. For example, Square Enix announced that Final Fantasy 16, a fellow PS5 exclusive, had sold over three million copies during its first week on sale. Going back further, Square Enix announced Final Fantasy 7 Remake shifted 3.5 million copies in three days when it launched as a PlayStation 4 exclusive in April 2020. Final Fantasy 15 sold five million units in its first day, but that game launched on PS4 and Xbox One in November 2016. Final Fantasy 15 remains the fastest-selling game in the history of the series.

So far, Square Enix has said nothing about Rebirth sales, and we’re now coming up on two months since release. Based on the publisher’s previous behavior around sales announcements, you’d expect Square Enix would have made an announcement by now if sales of Rebirth had been positive.

The debate around the game’s sales was given a shot in the arm when analyst Daniel Ahmad, director of research and insights at Niko Partners, tweeted to say Rebirth was “underperforming” sales wise, and that it was selling about half of what Remake sold in the same timeframe. Additionally, Ahmad said it was looking like Rebirth had a “weaker tail” than Rebirth’s had, prior to any release in a subscription service such as PlayStation Plus.

In the UK, GamesIndustry.biz head honcho Christopher Dring reported that Rebirth launch sales were down 34% over the Remake launch, but up 6% over launch sales of Final Fantasy XVI. A slightly confusing picture in Great Britain.

How about in Japan? We have hard data for physical game sales there, but not download sales information. Still, going by physical sales, we can see Rebirth has had a tough time compared to other recent Final Fantasy games. Rebirth enjoyed the second-biggest PS5 launch in Japan, behind only Final Fantasy 16, with 262,656 physical copies sold compared to Final Fantasy 16’s 336,027 sold. However, it’s a less rosy picture when compared to other Final Fantasy games. Final Fantasy 7 Remake, for example, sold 702,853 copies in Japan at launch, whereas Final Fantasy 15 sold 716,649 copies at launch.

What the experts are saying about Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth’s sales

Without sales figures from Square Enix (IGN has asked for comment), we’re left to speculate and ask the experts for their take. GI’s Dring qualified the UK sales data by pointing out that Remake, which Rebirth is being compared to most, released on a bigger platform (the PS4) and during the first Covid lockdown, which boosted game sales and player numbers significantly. Rebirth also launched on the smaller PS5 amid a cost of living crisis that’s putting significant pressure on the sale of some $70 video games.

There’s also potential confusion in the marketplace. Final Fantasy VII Rebirth is the second game in a remake trilogy that some people may have struggled to understand at first glance. Final Fantasy VII Remake is a straightforwardly named and marketed video game, but when it comes to mainstream appeal, the second game in a sequel remake trilogy named Rebirth may have caused Square Enix a marketing headache.

IGN asked analyst Louise Wooldridge, a research manager at Ampere Analysis, for more detailed data on Final Fantasy VII Rebirth. It’s worth qualifying the following data by pointing out it includes players of the Final Fantasy VII Rebirth demo, which is still available to download from the PlayStation Store.

According to Ampere Analysis, Rebirth was the seventh largest title by monthly active users globally on PS5 in March, and was beaten out by Helldivers 2, as well as the traditional top-performers. On launch at the end of February, it ranked fourth by daily active users on PS5, surpassing games like GTA V, Apex Legends, Helldivers 2, and Roblox but falling short of Call of Duty, Fortnite, and EA Sports FC 24. Rebirth’s active user count has “dropped off considerably” since then, “as expected from a single=player release,” Wooldridge said.

Interestingly, top markets for Rebirth were the U.S., Japan, the UK, Germany, Canada, and South Korea, mirroring exactly what was seen with Final Fantasy XVI. Just less than a third of players were in the U.S., and just under a quarter were in Japan.

What’s clear is those who did buy Rebirth loved playing it. In March, Rebirth had the highest engagement of any PlayStation or Xbox title – the average player played on 12 days during the month, which was 36% more than Helldivers 2, and 40% more than Fortnite (both on PS5). “So although it attracted fewer active users than some competing titles, those who did play were very engaged, returning day after day and for long periods of time,” Wooldridge said.

Average game time per player was also extremely high globally, at almost 55 hours, which is again considerably higher than any other game in that month, including franchise MMO Final Fantasy XIV. Interestingly, in the run up to the launch of Rebirth (over three months or so), Ampere saw PS5 Final Fantasy VII Remake monthly active users increase by around 4.5 times, peaking during the Rebirth launch month (February). Clearly, there were plenty of people who tried to squeeze in a Remake playthrough before setting out on their Rebirth adventure.

So, what sense can we make of this data on Rebirth’s engagement?

“As single-player releases go, I wouldn’t say it was struggling necessarily,” Wooldridge said. “It clearly has a very devoted and engaged fanbase, as well as a few limiting factors versus its predecessor Remake including a smaller addressable audience (PS5 exclusive and much earlier in the console lifecycle than Remake was for PS4), and the fact that it is a sequel rather than a new IP or a standalone game (like FF16). So it is difficult to really compare the two – expectations must have been set lower versus Remake given the circumstances I just described.”

For the sake of argument, let’s assume Rebirth has underperformed versus Square Enix’s sales expectations for the title. What happens then? Based on conversations IGN has had with sources within the industry, typically when the second game in a planned trilogy significantly underperforms, publishers take a long, hard look at the development budget outlined for the final installment and may decide to make adjustments. Square Enix has made no suggestion that the scope of the third game in the Final Fantasy 7 remake trilogy will be affected by the sales performance of Rebirth, but there can be no doubt that the publisher is analyzing the data as we speak as it tries to work out what happens next.

Meanwhile, Final Fantasy VII Rebirth sales may get a shot in the arm if Square Enix releases an improved ‘Intergrade’ version for PC, as it did with Final Fantasy VII Remake, and the so-far unannounced but inevitable PS5 Pro. The Rebirth sales story may end up more positive when the dust settles. The question for Square Enix is, just how positive?

Wesley is the UK News Editor for IGN. Find him on Twitter at @wyp100. You can reach Wesley at [email protected] or confidentially at [email protected].