World Cup odds, pick Wednesday

One of the great sports stories of the year will reach a fever pitch on Wednesday as Morocco, the biggest Cinderella story at the World Cup since 2002, will take on defending champion France for a place in the final. 

Last week, Morocco stunned Portugal 1-0 to ink their spot in the semifinals.

Morocco will certainly have the backing of the crowd and the world beyond French borders, but is the fairytale nature of this run inflating the price on the Atlas Lions against perhaps the best team in the world? 

Below we break down Morocco vs. France at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday on FOX.

France vs. Morocco prediction

Not only is Morocco in the semifinals despite being a massive long shot before the tournament, but the Atlas Lions have got this far by going the hard route. Morocco topped Group F ahead of Belgium and Croatia, and then they defeated Spain and Portugal in their first two knockout matches.

Oftentimes when a Cinderella story like this emerges, the knee-jerk reaction is to chalk it up to luck, but that just hasn’t been the case for Morocco. The Atlas Lions are definitely relying on defensive prowess rather than offensive flair to get results, but that strategy is working and there’s no shame in putting defense first. 

And it’s not like they’re just parking the bus, either. The Atlas Lions held Spain and Portugal to just 1.9 total expected goals over their last two matches, and they won the xG battle, 1.4 to 0.9, in a picture-perfect performance against the Portuguese in the quarterfinals. 

In other words, Morocco’s defensive solidity keeps them in games, but they’re also giving their opponents plenty to worry about when they have the ball.

Morocco has allowed just one goal in this tournament and posted clean sheets against Croatia, Belgium, Portugal and Spain, so the Atlas Lions will be confident that they can do it again against the defending champions.

Because of their versatility in attack and the presence of Kylian Mbappe, France represents a steeper challenge than the other foes Morocco has vanquished, but there are also reasons for Les Bleus to be concerned in this matchup.

Betting on the World Cup?

As strong as France has looked with the ball, they have had to navigate some wobbly defense throughout this tournament. Their semifinal against England was basically a coin flip, but Les Bleus defense did allow 2.4 xGA to the Three Lions and was also charged with 1.7 xGA versus a Polish team that was really poor for most of the tournament.

France should have similar problems against Morocco, who have talented players that can win a game with a moment of magic. 

It’s a gameplan that’s worked perfectly thus far, and it’s one that makes the Atlas Lions a very dangerous underdog once again on Wednesday.

Morocco vs. France prediction

Morocco to win in 90 minutes (+650, FanDuel)