Brickyard 400 picks, props, odds

It’s one of NASCAR’s crown jewel events this weekend with the Brickyard 400.

The Cup Series runs on the oval layout at Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the first time since 2020.

Four years ago, Kevin Harvick captured his third career victory at Indianapolis. It’s a much different field in 2024, as Brad Keselowski is the only top-five finisher from the 2020 race in this year’s field.

BetMGM has Denny Hamlin (+375) and Kyle Larson (+575) as the favorites.

Last week’s winner Ryan Blaney (+800) and 2018 Brickyard 400 winner Brad Keselowski (+850) are the only other drivers with odds shorter than 10/1.

It’s the final race before a two-week break for the Olympics.

Here are our best bets for one of NASCAR’s marquee events.

Denny Hamlin to win (+490, FanDuel)

My top pick last week, Hamlin came agonizingly close with a second-place finish.

I’m going back to the well as Hamlin pursues his first win at Indianapolis.

He had the car to beat in the 2020 race, holding the lead with under 10 laps to go.

Unfortunately, he suffered a flat tire and crashed while leading.

Despite the result, Hamlin has finished sixth or better in five of his past seven races at Indy.

He’s also the best driver at Pocono, which represents the closest comparison to Indianapolis.

There aren’t many tracks Hamlin has yet to win at in the Cup Series.

There’s a good chance he will check Indianapolis off the list on Sunday.

Larson enters Sunday’s race looking for a bounce-back effort.

Kyle Larson top-five finish (+100, bet365)

He’s had speed the past two weeks, but a crash and pit road penalty have led to poor finishes.

He should be in line for a strong run at Indy.

This will be Larson’s first start at Indianapolis with Hendrick Motorsports.

He showed speed in lesser equipment, posting three top-10 finishes from 2014-16.

Larson had one of the cars to beat in the 2019 race.

He finished second in both stages before crashing.

He also displayed top-10 speed in the 2017 and 2018 races.

Speed isn’t the issue for Larson, as the No. 5 team is consistently in contention.

A top-five finish is well within reach as long as he and his crew can avoid mistakes.

Ross Chastain over Kyle Busch (-115, bet365)

The Indianapolis history gives Busch a massive edge over Chastain, who has never finished better than 17th, while Busch has two wins and five top-five finishes.

However, this pick is all about 2024.

Busch is in the worst stretch of his career, having finished 27th or worse in six of his past nine races.

The team lacks speed, and Busch keeps finding a way to crash.

Chastain hasn’t been great lately, crashing in two of his past three races.

Still, he’s showing much more speed than Busch.

It’s a good idea to fade Busch amid his current stretch.

It likely won’t take a great finish for Chastain to cash this bet.

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Alex Bowman to win Group D (+240, DraftKings)

Alex Bowman enters Sunday’s race off the heels of a win and third-place finish.

He’s got momentum as he goes up against Chastain, Busch and Bubba Wallace.

Though I have no faith in Busch, Chastain and Wallace are making their first Indianapolis starts with their current teams.

I expect both drivers to finish in the 10-15 range.

Bowman has an ugly history at Indy, but his recent stretch gives me confidence.

He’s also the best of the four drivers at Pocono in the Next-Gen era.

In my opinion, he’s the only driver in this group with legit top-10 upside.