Trump cements lead in swing states over Biden: new poll

Maybe it’s a matter of “Consider the source,” but new battleground-state polling from Rasmussen Reports shows President Biden poised to lose the battle of the ballot box if he’s still a candidate in November.

And if Biden goes down, the data show, he will take Capitol Hill Democrats along with him.

Donald Trump’s favorite pollster surveyed 5,605 likely voters in swing states from July 5 to 12 — meaning the survey ended the day before a sniper’s assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally last Saturday.

The poll included 1,101 likely voters in Arizona, along with 1,015 in Georgia, 1,025 in Michigan, 761 in Nevada, 1,041 in Pennsylvania and 1,020 in Wisconsin, with 48% of those surveyed having voted for Biden in 2020 and just 47% having backed Trump’s re-election.

And it draws the conclusion that in these bellwether states that will decide the Electoral College, everything is going the way of the Trump-Vance campaign.

It doesn’t matter whether a two-way race is polled or a scenario including marginal candidates — Trump is ahead comfortably either way. In the binary battle, Trump leads Biden 49% to 44%.

And in the scenario with minor candidates, the lead is 6 points — 46% to 40%, with Robert Kennedy Jr. drawing 7% support and no other candidate above 1% in the battlegrounds.

There is some variance among the states.

Trump leads Biden by 8 points in Nevada, suggesting that state may be out of reach, but has more modest leads of 4 points in Pennsylvania and 3 points in Wisconsin — two states that are absolutely critical for Biden to win in November. Kennedy has his best showing in Georgia, where he gets 10% of the vote.

The race’s trajectory translates to interesting approval ratings for the major-party candidates.

Both men are regarded very unfavorably by more than 40% of respondents, but Biden is worse off than the polarizing Trump: 45% to 41%. And the incumbent doesn’t inspire the same positive feeling Trump does either.

Overall, Trump is above water, with 50% approval and 49% disapproval. Biden, meanwhile, has 44% approval and 55% in the other direction.

And there are still more causes for concern for Joe Biden and his backers in this data set.

While 64% of black voters in battleground states say they back Biden in the two-way scenario, the incumbent is headed for big losses with Hispanics and whites.

Trump is at 52% with white voters and 54% with Hispanics, while Biden is at 41% and 37% respectively.

Trump has tied Biden with battleground voters under the age of 40, is up by 8 points with those between 41 and 64 and 5 points with senior citizens.

Biden’s ballot drag extends down-ballot.

Poll respondents are more likely to vote for Republicans for Congress than Democrats by a 47% to 43% spread, a phenomenon that helps to explain calls by more than 30 Democratic members of Congress for Biden to abandon his campaign.

They simply aren’t ready to forfeit what otherwise would be competitive races for a terminally flawed candidate, and the data here bear that out.

Every Democratic Senate candidate is ahead of Biden in Rasmussen’s single-state polls this round.

Free-market think tank the Heartland Institute sponsored the poll, and it is ebullient about the findings.

“As this poll from the crucial swing states shows, things could not be looking better for the Trump campaign. Without a doubt, swing state voters were horrified watching President Biden’s debate performance in late June. Such is why the tables have turned so quickly. As of now, former President Donald Trump holds a commanding lead across the swing states while his favorability rating has reached 50%. Republicans also hold solid leads in down ballot races, suggesting that 2024 could be a landslide victory for the GOP,” asserts Heartland editorial director Chris Talgo.

For its part, the Biden campaign is saying it will soldier on as yet another brutal week comes to a close.

“President Biden is excited to get back on the campaign trail as soon as he can,” reads a memo from the campaign, which has sent second gentleman Doug Emhoff to Arizona this weekend to meet with black voters before attending the WNBA All-Star Weekend Skills Challenge and 3-Point Contest.

As the president recovers from COVID, meanwhile, Trump and running mate J.D. Vance will hit the trail. They have a joint rally in Grand Rapids, Mich., Saturday, followed by one in Vance’s hometown of Middletown, Ohio, Monday.

From there, they’ll continue to hit the swing states separately. Vance will head to Radford, Va., Monday evening. Trump plans a Wednesday event in Charlotte, NC.